25 replies to this topic

[AHF]

High5, on 11 March 2010 - 06:57 PM, said:

I never said it was a joke. I just said Wallace shouldn't have 4 while Duncan has 0. Just like Jerry Sloan should have at least one COY award.

You are right.  Atlantaholic pretty much said it was a joke so I was more responding to that.  Other than Camby, the list looks like a list of elite defenders to me.  It is still open to second guessing, but winning a DPOY award would mean something to me.

[niremetal]

AHF, on 12 March 2010 - 09:59 AM, said:

You are right.  Atlantaholic pretty much said it was a joke so I was more responding to that.  Other than Camby, the list looks like a list of elite defenders to me.  It is still open to second guessing, but winning a DPOY award would mean something to me.

I don't think any of those guys are non-elite except Camby, Eaton, and Deke the last year he won (a classic example of reputation trumping actual performance).  It's just obvious that the voters have no conception of on-ball defense, because those three were actually mediocre-to-bad as on-ball defenders the years they won.  Camby and Eaton were actually always bad on-ball defenders, which makes their selections even more absurd.

But being elite isn't the issue.  The issue is whether the award actually went to people who actually were the best in the league.  I honestly think that there are many cases where the award went to someone who was a great defender, but there were others at his position who were clearly better but got overlooked because 1) they didn't put up gaudy block/steal numbers, 2) weren't superstars, and/or 3) the award voters couldn't give the award to someone playing on a team that wins less than 50 games (even if that lack of success was due more to offense than defense).

For instance, I know this is sacrilege around here, but Mutombo was never the best defensive player in the league, or even the best at his position.  He was an elite shot-blocker and very good help defender, but even at Deke's peak, Olajuwon, Admiral, and Mourning easily exceeded him in on-ball defense and Olajuwon and Mourning equalled or exceeded him as a help defender.  Duncan was easily a better defender from his 3rd year in the league onwards, both on and off the ball.  If the award went to a big man, his first DPOY should have gone to Hakeem, the next to either Hakeem or Mourning, and the last to Duncan.  The only season where I think there's a strong argument he deserved it over those guys was 97-98, when Mourning and Olajuwon both missed 25+ games and Duncan was a rookie.  Even then, I think Duncan, Robinson, or Pippen should have gotten the award.

Really, Olajuwon should have won the award 6-7 times, not the 2 times he actually won.  For much of his career, he was surrounded by mediocre on-ball defenders, but his presence on and off the ball made the Rockets consistently among the best defensive teams in the league.  But early in his career, his team didn't score enough to win games, and later in his career, his block numbers plummeted as his athleticism slipped - but he remained the best on-ball post defender in the league and had the best nose for the passing lane of any center in the history of the game.  And on the perimeter, it's absurd that Pippen never won the award, despite being the league's best perimeter defender and most versatile defender overall for a full decade.

Edited by niremetal, 12 March 2010 - 11:52 AM.

[AHF]

Everything you just typed about the DPOY not always getting the right person and how the voters seem to leave out some key aspects of play in favor of favoring other measures applies 100% to the MVP award.  I put the two awards in similar territory as far as their relevance and validity.

Edited by AHF, 12 March 2010 - 11:59 AM.

[niremetal]

AHF, on 12 March 2010 - 11:57 AM, said:

Everything you just typed about the DPOY not always getting the right person and how the voters seem to leave out some key aspects of play in favor of favoring other measures applies 100% to the MVP award.  I put the two awards in similar territory as far as their relevance and validity.

I think a lot of it is similar, but definitely not "100%."  Voters give more thought and pay more attention to nuance (making teammates better, otherwise having an impact beyond the stats) when they vote for MVP, even though the importance of defense still gets the shrift in that voting.  But like with the Golden Gloves in baseball (the Palmeiro win in a year that he played almost all of his games as a DH is the best example), I'm convinced that most voters just don't think for more than 15 seconds when they fill out the ballot for DPOY.  They look at the leaders in blocks/steals/rebounds, think about the player's reputation for a few seconds, and that's it.

I can't think of any MVP awards from the past decade that I strongly disagree with.  The best argument is Dirk in 2007, but that was a year when there was no one who clearly deserved it (Kobe was at the peak of his selfish jackass phase and took tons of possessions off defensively, and Nash's already-mediocre defense crumbled to just plain bad).  Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Nash, Kobe, LeBron - those are all guys who you can argue with a straight face were the most valuable players in the league when you consider all the factors that go into it.  I don't think you can do the same with Camby, Eaton, or (again, sorry) Deke (at least for his first and last awards).

Edited by niremetal, 12 March 2010 - 12:14 PM.

[DJlaysitup]

niremetal, on 12 March 2010 - 12:07 PM, said:

...I'm convinced that most voters just don't think for more than 15 seconds when they fill out the ballot for DPOY.  They look at the leaders in blocks/steals/rebounds, think about the player's reputation for a few seconds, and that's it.

Agreed nir.  There is no stat for all the times that opposing players have simply decided not to go into the lane against the human blocking machine.  Smoove changes the game in that respect.  If all the opposing players just drove to the hoop without regard for Smoove - he would have like 10+ blocks a game.  he'd be swatting shots like flies.

He'd get pooped.

Edited by DJlaysitup, 12 March 2010 - 12:16 PM.

[AHF]

For the 2000's, I have the MVP at less than 50% correct.

My view on MVPs:

2008-09 - Lebron James - Correct
2007-08 - Kobe Bryant - Wrong.  Don't know by what measure he is the right guy this year.  The PER, the WSs, etc. are all incredibly low for an MVP.  His usage rate propelled this one along with his team success.  I'll go with Lebron James' or Chris Paul's superior seasons here.
2006-07 - Dirk Nowitzki. - Wrong.  I'll go with Timmy who puts up similar numbers with impact defense.
2005-06 - Steve Nash. - Really?  I'll go with Lebron.
2004-05 - Steve Nash.  Wrong again.  Shaq deserved this.
2003-04 - Kevin Garnet.  Correct.
2002-03 & 2001-02 - Timmy.  Correct.
2000-01 - Allen Iverson.  Wrong, wrong, wrong.  Timmy and Shaq are both much better players all-around this season.

So I have the decade so far at a 44% clip of getting it right.

[niremetal]

AHF, on 12 March 2010 - 12:30 PM, said:

For the 2000's, I have the MVP at less than 50% correct.

My view on MVPs:

2008-09 - Lebron James - Correct
2007-08 - Kobe Bryant - Wrong.  Don't know by what measure he is the right guy this year.  The PER, the WSs, etc. are all incredibly low for an MVP.  His usage rate propelled this one along with his team success.  I'll go with Lebron James' or Chris Paul's superior seasons here.
2006-07 - Dirk Nowitzki. - Wrong.  I'll go with Timmy who puts up similar numbers with impact defense.
2005-06 - Steve Nash. - Really?  I'll go with Lebron.
2004-05 - Steve Nash.  Wrong again.  Shaq deserved this.
2003-04 - Kevin Garnet.  Correct.
2002-03 & 2001-02 - Timmy.  Correct.
2000-01 - Allen Iverson.  Wrong, wrong, wrong.  Timmy and Shaq are both much better players all-around this season.

So I have the decade so far at a 44% clip of getting it right.

That is, of course, your opinion.  Personally, I would put Duncan as MVP every year from 2000 to 2007 except '04-'05 (when he missed 16 games and I think Nash did deserve it) and then Kobe and LeBron the next two years (that would make it 55%), but that's just my opinion (and I realize that no one would ever vote someone MVP 6 times in 7 years).  My point was that you could at least make very strong arguments for everyone on that list and, relatedly, that if you polled coaches and GMS, you could find more than a few that would agree with each MVP selection.

On the other hand, I don't think you could make a very strong argument for Deke over Duncan in 2001 or Camby over...well...almost anyone in 2007.  That is largely just a function of the fact that MVP takes into account ALL facets of the game (including offense, defense, and off-court), while defense only takes (at most) 1/2 of it into account, which allows for more variability on how things are weighed with MVP.

I frankly think that DPOY is 1 for 10 this decade.  The only one I agree with is Wallace in '04-'05.  So even on the narrow basis of "how often I agree with it," my opinion lines up more with the MVP selections

[AHF]

niremetal, on 12 March 2010 - 01:10 PM, said:

That is, of course, your opinion.  Personally, I would put Duncan as MVP every year from 2000 to 2007 except '04-'05 (when he missed 16 games and I think Nash did deserve it) and then Kobe and LeBron the next two years (that would make it 55%), but that's just my opinion (and I realize that no one would ever vote someone MVP 6 times in 7 years).  My point was that you could at least make very strong arguments for everyone on that list and, relatedly, that if you polled coaches and GMS, you could find more than a few that would agree with each MVP selection.

On the other hand, I don't think you could make a very strong argument for Deke over Duncan in 2001

I don't see the distinction.

Duncan received 14 of 124 votes for DPOY and fewer votes for all-nba defensive team from the NBA coaches and you don't think that makes your MVP criteria of "you could at least make very strong arguments for everyone on that list and, relatedly, that if you polled coaches and GMS, you could find more than a few that would agree with each MVP selection"?

Doesn't the fact that the NBA Coaches voted more for Dikembe for All-NBA Defensive Team than Duncan mean it is likely that if you polled coaches you would find more than a few who would agree with the DPOY choice?

I can't believe you think the difference between Deke and Duncan defensively that year is bigger than the difference between AI and Shaq overall!

Edited by AHF, 12 March 2010 - 04:02 PM.

[niremetal]

AHF, on 12 March 2010 - 04:00 PM, said:

I don't see the distinction.

Duncan received 14 of 124 votes for DPOY and fewer votes for all-nba defensive team from the NBA coaches and you don't think that makes your MVP criteria of "you could at least make very strong arguments for everyone on that list and, relatedly, that if you polled coaches and GMS, you could find more than a few that would agree with each MVP selection"?

Doesn't the fact that the NBA Coaches voted more for Dikembe for All-NBA Defensive Team than Duncan mean it is likely that if you polled coaches you would find more than a few who would agree with the DPOY choice?

Last I checked, the coaches vote by position when they vote for the league awards, and don't make "at large" selections just naming the 5 best players in the league.  Duncan was always classified as a F back then (still is, I think), Deke a C.  Duncan had to compete with Garnett, Malone, PJ Brown, Bruce Bowen,  etc.  And that year, as with every year between ~1998 and 2008 (ie after Hakeem and Admiral started declining and before the rise of D-12), the defensive competition at C was pretty weak, which is why freaking Shaq (who never broke a sweat playing D until the playoffs) made the all-D second team.  So the comparison between the two in that regard is not persuasive to me.

Quote

I can't believe you think the difference between Deke and Duncan defensively that year is bigger than the difference between AI and Shaq overall!

That's because we have different opinions.  It happens on blogs every once in awhile.  I think Iverson was the NBA's best player that year.  No one could stop him on offense and Brown actually managed to get him to give a sh!t on D.  Ratliff/Deke aside, his teammates would have had trouble cracking the starting lineup on most teams, and their starting PG (Snow) was hurt for 30+ games, but the Sixers won 56 games.

In any case, the difference between MVP and DPOY in this regard is, in my opinion, a matter of degree, which should be clear from everything I've said.  I think that if coaches were polled for MVP and DPOY, their results would diverge from the sportswriters more for DPOY than for MVP.  Do you disagree with that?  If so, we have a difference of opinion.  Woohoo.

Edited by niremetal, 12 March 2010 - 04:21 PM.

[nbasuperstar40]

AHF, on 12 March 2010 - 12:30 PM, said:

For the 2000's, I have the MVP at less than 50% correct.

My view on MVPs:

2008-09 - Lebron James - Correct
2007-08 - Kobe Bryant - Wrong.  Don't know by what measure he is the right guy this year.  The PER, the WSs, etc. are all incredibly low for an MVP.  His usage rate propelled this one along with his team success.  I'll go with Lebron James' or Chris Paul's superior seasons here.
2006-07 - Dirk Nowitzki. - Wrong.  I'll go with Timmy who puts up similar numbers with impact defense.
2005-06 - Steve Nash. - Really?  I'll go with Lebron.
2004-05 - Steve Nash.  Wrong again.  Shaq deserved this.
2003-04 - Kevin Garnet.  Correct.
2002-03 & 2001-02 - Timmy.  Correct.
2000-01 - Allen Iverson.  Wrong, wrong, wrong.  Timmy and Shaq are both much better players all-around this season.

So I have the decade so far at a 44% clip of getting it right.

2006-07 should have went to Kobe in my opinion and CP3 should have won in 2007-08.

[AHF]

niremetal, on 12 March 2010 - 04:14 PM, said:

In any case, the difference between MVP and DPOY in this regard is, in my opinion, a matter of degree, which should be clear from everything I've said.  I think that if coaches were polled for MVP and DPOY, their results would diverge from the sportswriters more for DPOY than for MVP.  Do you disagree with that?  If so, we have a difference of opinion.  Woohoo.

I think that is where we are.  I just don't think there would be much difference between the coach's view on MVP and DPOY and the actual selections (which is to say, I think the coaches would disagree with each award about the same amount).  

(With AI, I have extreme trouble getting excited about a guy who shoots .518 TS% just because he takes a lot of shots.  Shaq averaged 2.4 fewer ppg but shot 6.3 fewer FGA/gm.  Add in the rest of their games - especially the 12.7 rpg and 2.8 bpg for Shaq -  and it is a complete, 100% total no-brainer for me.)