“Oh, deer…”
A Wisconsin team arrives in Atlanta, and loses on a Sunday in January. Hopefully, that will be the case not only once, but twice, this month, beginning with the Atlanta Hawks emerging victorious in this Sunday matinee with the Milwaukee Bucks (3:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL; Fox Sports Wisconsin in MKE).
There remain plenty of close friends up and down Atlanta’s roster, but keeping one’s enemies closer continues to be a challenge for the Hawks (22-17). On Friday night, they fell behind to Boston by 15 points in the first quarter (before crawling back to tie in the second, down 4 at the half). Similarly, Atlanta slipped behind by 20 in the third quarter before knotting things up in a wild finish.
Dennis Schröder struggled to control the tempo (third-lowest game pace this season for Atlanta), and Dwight Howard was unable to help the Hawks build a rebounding advantage (50.0 Reb% vs. BOS), setting the stage for the heroics to come from Isaiah Thomas in the final quarter. For a game that wound up excitingly even, Atlanta’s players and coaches placed themselves behind the 8-ball early and too often.
It’s always tough to keep a team featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo at arm’s length. But the Hawks don’t want a repeat of their game in the Badger State back on December 9, when Atlanta fell behind by 20 at halftime and had to claw back to win, 114-110.
The month before, here at Philips Arena, Atlanta (without Howard or Thabo Sefolosha) blitzed the Bucks with a bench-fueled 31-9 second-quarter advantage, and held an 18-point lead in the third quarter, but needed to hang on when Giannis (26 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists @ ATL on Nov. 16) and Jabari Parker (25.0 PPG, 3.0 SPG vs. ATL this season) repeatedly brought Milwaukee back within a couple scores of the lead. A little less turbulence with be preferable today before the Hawks head north to meet the Knicks tomorrow.
The steady presence in both contests versus Milwaukee was Paul Millsap (22.0 PPG, 61.5 FG%, 11.0 RPG, 1.5 TOs/game vs. MIL), who had his hands full keeping Giannis (5.0 TOs/game vs. ATL) and Parker in check. Keeping Milwaukee’s star forwards busy defensively should free up Dennis and Dwight for bounceback performances today.
It’s likely Schröder won’t have to endure any Yo Mama snaps from Matthew Dellavedova today. Delly (37.2 FG%) has been known to grate on opponents on the court with his play more than his mouth, but has ceded his starting point guard spot to a rookie, Greater Atlanta Christian alum Malcolm Brogdon.
Brogdon’s offensive poise has caught up with his assertiveness on defense, quickly gaining the confidence of coach Jason Kidd. As of now, the second-round draftee out of UVa is leading all rookies in Win Shares, scoring (9.2 PPG) and assists (6.3 APG as a starter, plus 14.0 PPG, 95.8 FT%, and 5.1 RPG) while committing just 1.5 turnovers per game.
With Brogdon taking over at the point, the Bucks (20-18) have won 5 of their last 7, including a win in San Antonio without Giannis around in the clutch. Schröder must rely on pick-and-roll action to screen Brogdon out of plays and exploit Milwaukee’s shakier defenders, particularly Parker, ex-Hawk Jason Terry, swingmen Tony Snell and Mirza Teletovic, and foul magnets John Henson and Miles Plumlee.
Malcolm Delaney (17 points and 6 assists, 1 TO) had a productive game versus Boston, and will again be challenged today to make Delly rely more on his shooting (7-for-21 FGs vs. ATL) than his distributive skills (8 assists in 18 bench minutes in the Bucks’ 116-108 win vs. MIA on Friday).
The Bucks thrive on interior scoring (NBA-high 50.1 paint points per-48), meaning that Howard (23 minutes vs. BOS) must be active stemming Milwaukee’s offense without falling into early foul trouble. Dwight has not blocked 2 or more shots in a game since the Hawks beat the Bucks back on December 9.
Burned repeatedly by Boston, Atlanta is the only NBA defense allowing over 50.0 eFG% on pick-and-roll ballhandler plays (51.6 opponent eFG%, 47.4 opponent FG%). But Dwight and Dennis will get a reprieve playing a Milwaukee team that applies these plays infrequently (12.8% of plays, 4th-fewest in NBA) and shoots just 42.1 eFG% (4th-lowest in NBA).
In the battle of the Moose, Greg Monroe (10.8 PPG, Bucks’ only double-digit-average scorer aside from Giannis and Jabari) seeks to wear down the Hawks with post moves and mid-range shots. Also playing off the bench, Atlanta’s Mike Muscala, whose three-pointers helped the Hawks turn the tide in Milwaukee last month, must counter by stretching the floor on offense while getting stops and sparking transition with rebounds (five D-Rebs in 54 minutes vs. MIL) on defense.
Tim Hardaway, Jr. struggled at the outset in Milwaukee in December, but just like on Friday, came through with big buckets in the final quarter, providing 20+ points for the third time in his past six games (58.3 3FG% in that span). If Atlanta does a better job of contending through the first three quarters, the wing combo of Sefolosha and Hardaway should be sufficient to help the home team pull through today.
The Hawks (22-17) need to keep their distance from the Bucks (1.5 GB) in the standings, not on the floor. Stifling interior defense plus better closeouts along the perimeter should be enough for the Hawks to get the job done, and to discourage cheese-headed Wisconsinites from desiring a return to downtown Atlanta anytime soon.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
