“And, in 2017, I’ll pillage your rebounders, too, Atlanta!”
The greatest enemy to the Atlanta Hawks franchise is in town this weekend. By any legal means necessary, this man MUST be stopped.
“How about bringing the @ ATLHawks to Seattle!!!!?” That was Cincinnati-born, Richmond-raised, Seattle-spoonfed Russell Wilson in 2014, butting his nose where it didn’t belong, during the very height of Deng Fever plaguing our beloved basketball team, tweeting from 2,635 miles away. Oh, great. Why not call them the @ SEAHawks once they get to the Emerald City, Russ?
“#Supersonics I vote yes!” Nobody even asked you, you sponge-haired freak! The second-highest-rated QB in NFL history (the top-rated QB ever arrives here the following week) forgot that he needed to stick to football. For that, his reprimand will be getting Vic-timized on Saturday, as his season draws to a fitting conclusion – once again – in the Georgia Dome. Ciara, please, come get your boy!
Right down the street this weekend – tonight, in fact – there’s a Sea-Tac native who, likewise, could stand to learn a lesson about meddling in Atlanta Hawks affairs. He’s easy to find if you look down, as he’s rocking a Seachickens hoodie around town today.
The star of the visiting Boston Celtics (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL; Save Yourself the Agony in BOS; ESPN everywhere else), Isaiah Thomas had been whispering sweet nothings in the ear of Al Horford, ever since the longtime Atlanta pivot interrupted his winter break to head to the 2016 All-Star Game. Then, Isaiah swooped in during free agency and helped GM Danny Ainge (I hope his finger still hurts) pry him from the pragmatic Hawks’ clutches.
Here’s what this coup was supposed to do. It was supposed to kneecap the team that ultimately punked Thomas and the upstart Celtics in the first round of the playoffs. Their ploy was to move the Hawks out of the way, for good, clearing the path for Boston’s ascension back into championship relevance. Further, Horford’s presence was supposed to woo Kevin Durant away from OKC, forming a Superteam that could rival contenders like, oh, say, the Warriors.
Theoretically, acquiring the top PF-C in the free agent class was supposed to make the Celts a more serious rebounding team. And, with Horford joining forces with Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, and ATLien rookie Jaylen Brown, Boston could formally seize Atlanta’s place as the top defensively-efficient team in the East. Farewell, Atlanta, good luck with your fire sale. Look out, Cleveland, here we come!
Add a $26.5 million big man and stir, that was the grand plan in Beantown. A few months into the season, how is that working for them?
The pre-Horford Celtics of 2016 finished with 48 wins. The Horford-infused Celtics of 2017 (24-15) are currently on pace for… 50 wins! Wow, quelle différence! LeBron is quaking, I’m sure.
The 2016 Celtics finished the regular season sixth in total rebounds per game, but 26th in D-Reb%. They added Al, and they’ve somehow managed to get even worse: 25th in team RPG, dead-last (30th) in D-Reb%. Gee, do they miss Jared Sullinger that much? Perchance, they’re still waiting for Durant to arrive?
Boston’s leading per-game defensive rebounder? No, don’t look at Al (5.3 RPG), nor Kelly Olynyk, nor Amir Johnson, nor Jonas Jerebko, not Tyler Zeller. Try on Avery Bradley (5.9 RPG) for size – at 180 pounds, the lightest player (Thomas included) on the Celtics’ roster. Unfortunately, he has been out recently with a strained Achilles, and is not available for tonight’s game. Celts fans are self-assured that Bradley’s injury in Game 1 of last year’s postseason series with Atlanta was the difference between winning and losing.
Without Bradley or Zeller (sinus infection) around, Toronto had not one (Jonas Valanciunas, with 23), but two (DeMar DeRozan, with 13) players enjoying career-highs in rebounds, as the Raptors stormed past the C’s on Tuesday night. The only other NBA team with under a 74.0 D-Reb%, besides Boston? You guessed it. Toronto.
The next night, despite Boston prevailing at TD Garden, each of the Wizards’ five starters, and bench man Jason Smith, wrested at least two offensive boards away. Among the Celtics’ frontline, further shorthanded without Johnson (ankle, questionable for tonight) around, only Crowder could muster a physical response. But the reaction only came after the game, and was a bit too on-the-nose.
When it comes to defense, the Celtics are indeed making history… just, not in the way they anticipated. Their team defensive rating (105.8 opponent points per 100 possessions, 20th in NBA) is presently the storied organization’s worst since the 15-67 squad coached up by M.L. Carr back in 1996-97. Yes, the rock-bottom team that had its bosses assuaging fans: “Relax, we’ll be good again soon. Rick Pitino is coming to fix everything!”
After Boston started out its first seven games with the league’s worst defensive efficiency (112.3 D-Rating), all it took was an uptick in December (not long after Horford returned from concussion protocol) for a writer for Celtics.com to declare, in his article’s title, “C’s Becoming Elite Defensive and Rebounding Team.”
No, not “Lite”… not “Effete”… “Elite” was no typo. Such scribbles are emblematic of an organization, from Ainge to Tommy Heinsohn and right on down, that makes its living blowing smoke up gullible people’s patooties. Their logo does wink at you while gnawing on a pipe, though, so no one can say they weren’t warned.
Clawing their way out of their mid-season malaise, during Atlanta’s current winning streak (since Dec. 28) the Hawks have produced a league-best 96.1 D-Rating, something few individuals paid to write about such things outside of the ATL has bothered to mention. In the same period, those “Becoming Elite” Celts have bested only the Kings, Nuggets, and Pistons with their 111.8 D-Rating (27th in NBA).
$enor Horford… what do you have to say for yourself?
“I need to get rebounds when I can,” stated Horford as quoted in the “Elite” Celtics.com article, probably nasally, “but my priority is to box my man out, and make sure we hold the team to one shot.” While the Horford-less Hawks allow 13.6 second-chance points per-48 (8th-most in NBA), they score 14.1 (6th-most in NBA) themselves. And the Horford-full Celtics have given up 13.9 (5th-most in NBA), outscored on that basis by 1.9 points per-48.
It’s all scheme, you see. The “Elite” author explains that Boston coach Brad Stevens wants his big men to clear the lane by boxing out… so that the Guards (which explains Bradley, to a lesser extent Smart) can swoop in and grab the boards themselves. On a per-36 basis, there are 10 Celtics averaging between 4.9 and 6.1 defensive rebounds. Al insists he’s following the directives of not only his current coach, but his former one, too.
“I remember that Bud in Atlanta was like, ‘I don’t care if you get two rebounds. I just want you to box out and our guards will figure it out. We need them to be great at rebounding for us to be a good team.’” Even if that’s a mild exaggeration (was Korver ever close to “great” at rebounding?), might it be that Al Horford’s replacement on the Hawks isn’t Dwight Howard after all, but Mike Muscala? Is Moose Al’s power animal, or vice versa?
Super-sibling Anna Horford has her brother’s team diagnosed. “…The C’s need a true center. We need Al at the 4,” she tweeted a couple weeks ago, laying to rest where La Familia Horford’s perceptions lie about his willingness to play to his size in the post. Anna expounded, “Adding some more height/solid backup would help tremendously.” Maybe another $26 million or so should be budgeted toward this expense. What do you say, Coach Brad?
“It’s a good question,” Stevens said to the Springfield Republican before the Wizards game. “I’ve said it all year, we’re not going to win many rebounding battles. If we can manage it, then we have a chance to win.”
Little defense, little rebounding, few problems. Right, Coach Brad? “If we’re the same in April as we are now, we’re in trouble,” foreboded Stevens, before Tuesday night’s loss to the Raps.
Professional pundits, where are the alarm bells? Records don’t matter, right? If you can’t make stops, can’t board, can’t fathomably beat Cleveland or Toronto (0-4 versus those two clubs this season) in a series, aren’t you supposed to be “blowing it up”? Isn’t that how this works? Doesn’t somebody out there need Olynyk, or Amir, or Bradley, to fashion themselves a serious contender for LeBron’s crown?
Instead of a hot stove in Boston, ESPN is pushing Stevens as a hot candidate for the All-Star Game (T-Lue can’t coach it, per rules, so it’s up to a mid-season race for second place in the East). “That would be big,” said Thomas (28.2 PPG and 90.5 FT%, 4th in NBA), the Mighty Mouse with the mightier mouth, said to ESPN prior to Tuesday’s game. “Not just for (Stevens), but for this organization and the direction we’re going in. Hopefully, we can make that happen for him.”
Stevens draws a lot of praise, just for quickly making Boston playoff-relevant again. The fourth-year coach senses, though, that more important than some mid-season honor is avoiding another first-round washout this spring, especially at the hands of hardly-hyped teams like the Hawks. Without at least a series victory, anything Stevens sells will wind up smelling like his initials. The burning question, then, is, how far can his self-made All-Star point guard carry this flawed team?
“Right behind Westbrook and Harden” is where Isaiah says he sees himself among the MVP contenders. Defense allegedly wins championships, yet Thomas (437th out of 437 players in Defensive Real Plus/Minus, as tabulated by ESPN without much fanfare, and Player #436 is not even close) knows that his best defense – his only defense – is a hella-good offense (8th out of 437 in Offensive RPM).
Isaiah (110.2 D-Rating, 3rd-worst in NBA w/ min. 30 minutes per game) is wagering that his ability to score and draw fouls off dribble penetration (NBA-high 10.1 PPG off drives) while assisting on three-point shots (Celts 3rd in 3FG attempts per game) is more than enough to outweigh the decidedly negative impact of his presence on the defensive side of the floor.
Thomas can posture and pose about his animosities toward the marquee lead guards in the East. But there is undoubtedly one, and only one, point guard whose face he has pinned to a dartboard somewhere.
Thomas (24.2 PPG but 39.5 FG% in 2016 Playoffs) was supposed to be the only gnat on the floor during last year’s playoff series with the Hawks. Yet here he was in Game 3, frustrated, swatting Dennis Schröder across the head after the backup guard scored another layup against him. The refs acted blind to that, but not when Dennis retaliated with a hip check on the next possession, T’ing up both guards. Isaiah would be punished with a Flagrant-1 later by the league. “If he doesn’t slap me in the head, we’ll be fine,” quipped Dennis during pregame warmups. Don’t let Jae “boop” you, either!
2016 was supposed to be Thomas’ playoff coming-out party, and were it not for Schröder, the Hawks might very well have obliged. Instead, Dennis closed out Game 6 in Boston with a flourish of plays at both ends, and all a flummoxed Thomas could do is front when his season came to a screeching halt. “We’ll meet you in the back,” Isaiah warned Dennis after the game. “We” who? You and your secret pal Al? “In the back” half of next season?
Whether shooting or passing off drives, there is relatively little difference between Thomas’ and Schröder’s effectiveness. Where Thomas stands out is in how much more frequently he draws whistles from the refs. Dennis (7.9 PPG off drives, 5th in NBA) draws personal fouls in just 8.2 percent of his drives, 2nd-lowest among the NBA’s 25 most-frequent playmakers on those plays, leading to 1.8 fewer free throw attempts per game than Thomas (fouls called on 15.0 percent of his drives).
Schröder (20.0 PPG, 41.7 3FG%, and 6.6 APG during 7-game win streak; 19 points, 10 assists, no turnovers vs. BRK) is fully capable of beating Thomas incessantly off the dribble, drawing help and finding open teammates.
Toronto’s Kyle Lowry hung out on the perimeter when Thomas got lost on Tuesday, burying 5 of his 6 three-point attempts to go along with 9 assists. On Wednesday, the Celtics helped Thomas with John Wall (4-for-21 FGs), but the Wizards point guard still dished out 10 assists while committing just one turnover. Get a bead on Thomas, and as Jeff Teague might say, it’s “Too Little, Too Late” for Isaiah.
Brown (ankle) and Johnson will each try to go tonight, providing Horford some reinforcements at the forward positions. In any case, Stevens might continue to start Jordan Mickey at center and leave the starting 4-spot to the desirous Horford, who ought to have a decent-sized dossier on Paul Millsap by now. Sap, conversely, has seen Ye Olde Jab Step enough times to know not to bite.
Millsap’s field goal shooting is at a career-low 43.7 FG% (including a pedestrian 47.6 2FG%). But that’s somewhat to be expected, given his newest starting frontcourt mate lives and thrives in the lane, drawing defenders further inward. Even alongside Howard (7.3 post touches per game, 3rd in NBA; 0.99 points per post touch, best among 5 most frequent NBA players for post touches), Paul’s 17.6 PPG remains the best in the past three seasons, plus he’s passing the ball more confidently than ever (career-high 4.0 assists per-36; Hawks-tenure-low 2.3 TOs per-36).
On top of that, Paul’s arguably more effective as a two-man tandem defensively alongside Dwight (league-best 95.1 D-Rating as a two-man lineup; +7.4 Net Rating; Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha’s 95.2 ranks 2nd) than he was in the past three seasons with Al (100.3 D-Rating in 2015-16; +4.4 Net Rating). Boston’s top 2-Man pairing is Horford and Crowder (+5.8).
Whichever frontcourt starter doesn’t draw Horford should be capable of feasting against Mickey, Jerebko, Olynyk, or the injury-slowed Johnson. The C’s can only switch and help but so much, given the need to provide cover for Thomas. Dominating the boards will be crucial against a Celtics team that is 12-0 when they snag more than 49% of the available rebounds.
On offense, spreading Atlanta’s bigs onto each side of the floor, and having Tim Hardaway, Jr. (62.1 3FG%, 17.2 PPG in January) and/or Muscala (5-for-9 January 3FGs) chipping in with some perimeter shots off the bench, would provide a cornucopia of options to help the Hawks’ point guards excel tonight. Outscoring Isaiah is not as important as out-producing him as a distributor and a defender.
Building up a cushion through three quarters will prove useful when Thomas shows up for his end-of-game (NBA-high fourth-quarter 9.8 PPG) stat-padding. Directing Isaiah, as a ballhandler, toward the sidelines, and keeping him from picking up cheap shooting fouls, will make things simpler for Atlanta at closing time.
There will be plenty of green representation in the Philips Arena stands tonight, especially Boston clover green, and Seattle neon green, egging on Isaiah and the Celtics. But on 70s throwback night, the only greens that matter are lime and volt.
The Hawks (just 10-7 at home) benefited from a spread-out schedule over their past ten games (21 days), versus a mostly struggling array of opponents. While the upcoming games are more home-friendly, the next ten games are condensed into 16 days. They’ve won enough of late to earn themselves a bubble in the conference standings, but a win tonight would go a long way toward helping the Hawks climb up a tier, and further away from the Eastern Conference Crab Barrel (5th through 11th seeds) that’s 2.5-to-5.5 games behind them.
Boston, meanwhile, is eager to get a win for Not-so-Big Al, and desperate to avoid slipping into the barrel themselves. You can count on any of Thomas, flop-meister Marcus Smart, or the Villa Rican villain, Crowder, instigating in hopes of some retaliation that thins Atlanta’s ranks, either to beat the Hawks tonight, or to induce suspensions that might cost the Hawks a game or two in the standings. Atlanta’s players are experienced enough against this outfit, hopefully, to know not to fall for any Celtic shenanigans.
Based on current trends, even with Horford having moved to Boston, even with Thomas magnifying himself, even with Ainge hoarding a truckload of draft picks, thanks largely to the improving play of Schröder, it’s really Atlanta’s Future that’s looking bright. Wouldn’t you concur, Russ?
Speaking of Dennis the Menace... Hey, Mister Wilson! I’ve got a novel idea for you. Since you seem so concerned, once your fellow Sea-hag Isaiah shoots his way into a big-money contract, how about you pair up with him, and buy out Wyc Grousbeck and company? I’ve got just the perfect name when you poach an NBA team back to the Pacific Northwest. The Seattle Sea-eltics! I vote Yes!!!!
Rise Up! And Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
