“Now that I see it from your perspective… You were right, Flo. This does look kinda silly!”
One year and six days ago, the Atlanta Hawks were right where they are today: on the verge of getting dusted by King James version 3.0 and his Cavaliers, in a very awestruck Cleveland (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, Fox Sports Ohio).
Working Kevin Love and a new head coach fresh from Euroleague into the mix, the Cavs seemed to have finally shaken off the rust with a resounding 127-94 victory on that day, featuring a scintillating 71-point opening half. Kyrie Irving showed synergy with Love and LBJ, Dion Waiters looked to be finally turning the corner, Tristan Thompson brought the requisite energy off the bench, and even Joe Harris was a thing.
The cobwebs shed, Cleveland was clearly on its way back to their rightful place atop the Eastern Conference, for the first time since 2010, James’ last season hooping in the Buckeye State. As for Atlanta? Well, thanks for playing. See you in the second round, maybe.
That November day in 2014, no one could possibly have predicted what Shelvin Mack would do to the Cavs in the Hawks’ next trip to Quicken Loans Arena just one month later. No one foresaw Jeff Teague making his All-Star statement by undressing Irving in a 127-98 payback win, compelling King James to offer his co-star point guard a postgame tutorial.
No one could have expected the Hawks spoiling LeBron’s 30th birthday just two weeks afterward, or winning the regular-season series 3-1 during a magical season defying all expectations and forcing the path to the NBA Finals to roll, for the first time ever, through the ATL.
No one foretold the need for Cleveland to shake up the shooting guard spot and the bench corps just for the Cavs to turn their season around, or that, without Love and occasionally Irving, it would take the antics of an Australian not named Kyrie to steer the Conference Finals decidedly in their favor. All that could be known, on that crisp November day, was the 5-4 Hawks were who we thought they were, and the 5-3 Cavs were who everyone predestined them to be.
Last year’s first game of the season series between these eventual Eastern Conference finalists is a teachable moment for this year’s contestants. Tonight’s outcome might make for some momentary momentum-building, but it won’t be the determinant as to whether the 9-3 Cavs or 9-5 Hawks are The Real Deal in the East, and especially whether they’ll remain so.
As has been customary, both teams come into tonight’s meeting banged up. The Hawks may not quite have Teague (ankle) back in the saddle, and Kent Bazemore (ankle) won’t be available to help Thabo Sefolosha (+2.9 defensive box plus-minus, 2nd among non-PF/Cs) and Paul Millsap wrangle with LeBron (27.2 PPG, 6th in NBA).
The injury/availability situation for head coach David Blatt and the Cavaliers coming into tonight is even steeper. They’ve managed a sound 9-3 start without their starting backcourt. Kyrie Irving continues to recover from offseason knee surgery, while Iman Shumpert’s pre-training wrist injury has him sidelined through at least all of December. Mo Williams returned to Cleveland and resorted to his borderline LBJ-aided All-Star form (15.5 PPG, 5.3 APG) in Irving’s place. But now soreness in his ankle and leg caused Mo to miss Thursday’s home win over Milwaukee, and has him sitting this one out as well.
The depleted backcourt depth means professional irritant Matthew Dellavedova (5.9 APG) has few places to hide. The Hawks will have their eyes peeled to advise the refs when Delly resorts to his notoriously Gilloolian antics. But Dennis Schröder must keep a level head and avoid the types of overreactions that could have him observing the game from the bench.
We’ll probably see quite a bit of former Hawks draftee Jared Cunningham, who contributed seven points in 17 minutes for the Cavs on Thursday. J.R. Smith was accused of Wayne Bradying a New York teenager last week, but unless there’s more meat to those bones the Hawks should expect to see him lofting lots of shots tonight.
Those are just the guard issues for Cleveland. Starting center Timofey Mozgov has struggled out of the gate, and now a deltoid strain will have him sitting for a couple weeks. Anderson Varejao has been slowly worked back into Blatt’s rotation, the 11 minutes logged on Thursday the most for him in almost two weeks, while lightly-used backup Sasha Kaun is out tonight while celebrating the birth of a child.
The circumstances at center will require Cleveland to get their money’s worth out of their not-so-frugal frontcourt. Someone is going to pay Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson a cumulative $195 million between now and June 2020, but for now Thompson has been dutifully behind Love on the depth chart. Thompson (9.2 RPG, 17th in NBA) will likely have to move to the top line alongside Love (12.1 RPG, 4th in NBA).
Aside from rebounding opponent’s missed shots, neither has been a stalwart defensively. Last regular season’s Cavs-Hawks games featured Paul Millsap (55.4 FG% vs. CLE, highest vs. any East opponent) and Al Horford (63.9 FG% vs. CLE) tag-teaming on Love like New Day, so effectively I was reaching for my trombone whenever he was isolated on either of Atlanta’s All-Star big men.
Continuing to exploit Love and Thompson inside will keep James camped around the defensive paint to help rather than roving the perimeter and scheming his dangerous runout plays (Cleveland’s 15.9 fastbreak PPG is 2nd in East). That would be beneficial for Kyle Korver (63.9 TS%, 4th in NBA; 66.7 2FG%, 2nd in NBA) to continue honing his three-point arsenal. Big contributions by Tiago Splitter and the Mikes, Scott and Muscala, will help keep up the pressure on the shallow Cavs’ frontline.
Although partially by Blatt’s design, Cleveland gives up a league-high 8.4 field goals per game between 5 and 15 feet from the rim. A few floaters from Schröder should have a tenderizing effect on the Cavs’ defense.
The Cavs’ biggest bugaboo so far has been free throw shooting (69.8 FT%, 27th in NBA). While the Hawks’ light approach to fouling (17.1 personal fouls per game, 2nd fewest in NBA) is unlikely to make this an issue early in the game, it may become a factor if the Cavaliers have to turn to anyone aside from Love (88.4 FT%).
Embarking upon their NBA-high 15th game of the young season while juggling the needs for rest and rehabilitation, Atlanta has been fortunate that the degree of difficulty hasn’t been all that high. Only the Magic, Spurs, and Mavs have enjoyed a weaker opponent strength-of-schedule than the Hawks, to this point. But things are about to change significantly in the coming weeks.
After two days off (for the first time all season) following tonight’s contest, the Hawks have another four-game-in-five-day stretch to deal with. A nationally-televised home game with the feisty Celtics is immediately followed by a three-game Thanksgiving Weekend road trip where Atlanta faces the hungry Wolves, the gritty Grizzlies, and the Spurs-y Spurs.
All of that is followed by a three-game homestand hosting Angelenos named Westbrook, DeRozan, and (for the last time) Kobe. Afterward, the Hawks finally get four full days off to recalibrate, ahead of a three-game-in-four-nights stretch facing the Mavs and replaying the Thunder and Spurs.
Mike Budenholzer and the Hawks staff will prioritize the health of his key contributors and developing players over the need to produce any “statement victories.” Still, if the Hawks get through the next several weeks and still find themselves near the top of the standings, the statements will write themselves.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
