Hawks at Trail Blazers

“Miss Me Yet? Yes? No? Maybe So?”

Welcome to Snub City! The Atlanta Hawks have headed West, and are out to get back above-.500 on the road. Unfortunately, as was the case last season, they could not have possibly picked a worse time to run into Damian Lillard and his Portland Trail Blazers (10:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, ESPN, KGW-TV in PDX).

Around this time last January, Baby Hooper showed off his Bitter Beer Face to the world when he was unable, at the time, to grab a spot on the Western Conference All-Star roster. Coincidentally, Lillard was in the ATL, planning to make an example out of a high-flying Hawks squad, thereby showing the NBA voters, the coaches “who feel I wasn’t good enough,” just what they’d be missing in mid-February.

“A wise man once told me,” D-Lill mused on Instagram, “it ain’t always gone be peaches and cream but somebody has to pay for the reason it’s not.” Confucius, no doubt! Well, forty minutes of 6-for-20 shooting and six turnovers later, Atlanta had their 18^th-consecutive victory under their belts, and even those voters in Lillard’s camp were having second thoughts.

Now, it’s time to cue the synthesized violins once again. Lillard was perhaps the most notable snub as USA Basketball announced, on Monday, the 30 finalists for the U.S. National Men’s Basketball Team that will be going for the literal gold this summer.

Dame was previously one of the final cuts for Team USA’s FIBA World Cup team in 2014 (his current teammate, starting center Mason Plumlee, made the cut, and returned for a 2015 mini-camp, but didn’t even get a call for 2016). Lillard’s embitterment toward the 2014 experience probably didn’t help his cause. “If I’m going to invest myself in something, I want to have a real opportunity in that,” Lillard told the Oregonian. “I felt the decision was already made before the decision was made. Whether I played good or bad, it didn’t matter.”

As it stands, Lillard (24.4 PPG) is the highest-scoring NBA player, and second-best assist-maker among active Americans (behind tomorrow night’s opponent, Rajon Rondo), that will have to buy a ticket if he wants a shot at a trip to Brazil. Any designs on the part-time rhyme-spitter cutting videos with Snoop Dogg in Escadaria Selarón may have to get scrapped.

Well, guess who trips into Rip City just as this news drops? Lillard is quite certain to play Blame it On Atlanta, now that he’s certainly not headed to Rio. “Ignore the dream killers and doubters,” he tweeted yesterday, “or just use them to fuel your [emojis of fire, or something]” (Mike Scott can probably translate for me). Tack on the likelihood that he’ll again be on the outside looking in when the All-Star votes roll in, and you can bet he’s already hit the studio to drop some bars on all this for his next mixtape. Help a brutha out: you got anything that rhymes with Colangelo?

While Lillard goes for 50 (shots, if not points) tonight, it will be up to Jeff Teague to keep him in check, while ensuring the Hawks remain balanced offensively and control the pace of the game. Lillard generally stays out of the corners, and if a shot above-the break (7.6 FGAs per game, 2^nd in NBA) isn’t available, he’ll tend to take a step or two inside for a mid-range J off a screen. Or he’ll try to slip past defenders on isolation drives to the hoop (6.1 restricted-area FGAs, 3^rd among NBA guards).

The good news is that Lillard shoots blanks going for points at point-blank (47.3 restricted-area FG%, lowest among NBA guards with 4+ shots per game) even more than Teague (49.5 restricted-area FG%, 6^th-lowest) or Schröder (49.1 FG%, 5^th-lowest). But it’s incumbent on the Hawks guards to avoid bailing Lillard out with fouls and limiting kickouts to McCollum (the Most Improved Player award candidate who, like Lillard, isn’t exactly shy around a microphone) and Crabbe (46.9 January 3FG%). It’s also on the Hawks’ frontcourt mates to box out for what should be a plethora of defensive rebounding chances.

Here’s my crack at deciphering the nuanced offense of the Portland Trail Blazers (19-25), which I’ll call Stotts’ Steps:

1) Do you have the ball? If Yes, Go to Step 2. If No, Get Ready for That Rebound!

2) Are you Damian Lillard? If Yes, Go to Step 3. If No, Jump to Step 5.

3) Do you see a shot you like, right now? If Yes, Shoot It! If No, Dribble Around a Screen or something, and Go to Step 4.

4) Now do you see a shot you like? If Yes, Shoot It! If No, Pass to C.J. McCollum.

5) Are you C.J. McCollum? If Yes, Go to Step 6. If No, Jump to Step 7.

6) Do you see a shot you like, right now? If Yes, Shoot It! If No, Pass to Allen Crabbe.

7) Are you Allen Crabbe?  If Yes, Shoot It! If No, Go to Step 8.

8) Are you Al-Farouq Aminu? If Yes, Shoot It! If No, Stop Wasting Time Reading This, Pass the Ball, then Go Back to Step 1!

Stotts’ Go-Back-to-Step 1 Guys include Ed Davis (2.9 O-Rebs per game) and Plumlee (2.7 O-Rebs per game), and Harkless (collects a team-high 47.9% of O-Reb his chances). Thanks to this cleanup crew, the Blazers produce 15.0 second-chance PPG (2^nd in NBA). Neither of Davis, Harkless or even Leonard are starters, however. The Noah Vonleh Experiment continues in earnest, and while it hasn’t reaped dividends yet (3.3 PPG, 3^rd-lowest among NBA starters; 39.5 FG%, same scoring and shot percentage as last season in Charlotte’s doghouse), the second-year starting power forward did follow Stotts’ Step 1, and nabbed nine boards in just 17 minutes in D.C. on Monday.

Terry Stotts’ elaborate gameplan took a hit when both Lillard (plantar fasciitis) and McCollum (sprained ankles, 20.5 PPG) were unable to participate in Atlanta back on December 21. In their place, second-year guard Tim Frazier gave it his all for 47 minutes, after totaling 48 minutes in the prior 28 games. He and the balance of Blazers kept Jeff Teague cool, but had no answer for Dennis Schröder, whose performance off the bench (18 points in 17 minutes, 3-for-4 3FGs) could hardly be defined as toothless.

Portland’s whole team (including sporadically-used center Chris Kaman) is healthy now, allowing Stotts’ Steps to go into full execution. Key to the flow chart working is that at least one of Lillard (14^th in FG made; 5^th in FG missed) or McCollum (5^th in FG made; 4^th in FG missed) must get hot for the Blazers to have half a chance. When that fails, you get duds like Saturday (Lillard and McCollum 10-for-36 FGs) when Portland got blown out, 114-89, by the Suxers in Philly.

When both members of the Blazers’ Dynamic Duo are on, like on Monday (16-for-32 FGs, McCollum 6-for-10 3FGs), all Portland needs is a little extra push (Plumlee a double-double plus 7 assists; Meyers Leonard 4-for-7 3FGs) to run teams like the Wizards off the floor. The Blazers are 17-6 when shooting an eFG% above 50.0%, 2-19 otherwise.

Despite the momentary loss of McCollum and Lillard, Portland sat right that 50.0% Mendoza line in Atlanta last month, and only lost by a single-digit deficit, 106-97, after scrambling from behind with a full-bore 39-29 fourth quarter. The Hawks’ commitment to Budball (2 O-Rebs) allowed Portland to reach a season-high 94.7 D-Reb%. But Portland’s weakened depth allowed Mike Budenholzer to limit floortime for Paul Millsap and Al Horford (24.5 minutes apiece, Sap’s lowest of the season) and exploit the reserve quartet of Schröder, Thabo Sefolosha, Mike Scott, and Tiago Splitter (20-for-29 FGs).

While this particular road trip has some cushy opponents on the schedule, the Hawks have already proven (in Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Charlotte, New York, Minnesota) they can play down to their competition as well as anyone else, especially away from the nest.  Atlanta has dropped 10 of its last 16 away games after winning its first four on the road this season.

All four of the upcoming opponents are among the ten least-efficient defenses, and are among the least successful in forcing misses on threes above-the-break. Yet this stretch over the next six days will be a great opportunity for the Hawks to whet their defensive chops, taking on many individuals who believe their best defense comes by way of a smoking-hot offense.

Among the next four opponents, Portland is ninth in scoring efficiency, two teams (Sacramento and Denver) are top-ten in the percentage of field goals assisted, two teams (Denver and Portland) are in the top-ten for O-Reb%, two teams (Sacramento and Portland) are top-ten for eFG%, and the Kings and Suns, bless their hearts, push the pace about as much as Golden State, with varying results.

This trip poses a fine challenge for Atlanta (25-17) to drag their opponents’ scoring average on the season (100.1 PPG) back below triple digits. Only Atlanta (100.6 D-Rating, 10^th in NBA but 7^th in East) and the Chicago Hoibergs (100.7 opponent PPG) are ceding a per-game average of 100 or more among the East’s current Top 7 teams. The Blazers, like Phoenix and Sacramento, are among the ten most frequent turnover-per-possession committers. Atlanta will get a bigger leg up than they did at home against Brooklyn and Orlando if they convert consistently off turnovers from the outset.

Might we have a new Threezus on our hands? Hitting 55.5% of his threes this month (5^th in NBA, min. 2 attempts per game) has Teague over the 40-percent threshold, which would blow away last year’s season-finish of 34.3 3FG% and his small-sample second-season career-high of 37.5%. Defense, passing, and finishing in the paint (career-low 42.3 2FG%) haven’t been up to snuff for Agent Zero, but it’s hard to quibble with the noticeable improvement in his perimeter shooting.

As of now, there are nine NBA players in the 40/40/80 club (min. 2 3FG attempts per game) averaging at least 10 PPG (Steph, KD, Klay, Kawhi, Khris, Redick, Neal), and two rock the Torch Red: Teague (41.9 FG%/40.7 3FG%/84.5 FT%) and Kent Bazemore (46.5 FG%/41.9 3FG%/85.7 FT%). Coincidentally, over in the 50/40/80 club, regardless of scoring (min. 2 3FG attempts per game), there are just four guys presently on that Mount Rushmore: Steph, KD, Kawhi… and oh, hello there, Mike Scott (50.5 FG%/40.5 3FG%/80.0 FT%). We see you, Ben Sullivan!

Portland’s foes shoot a league-high 43.8 FG% on in-the-paint shots outside the restricted area, but their 39.9 PPG is the league’s third-lowest. The ability for Millsap (9 first-quarter points vs. ORL on Monday) to draw defensive help for Vonleh should open up decent options all over the floor. Properly reading the Blazer defense should create plenty of hockey assists for the Hawks.

But the key will be on defense, where Atlanta’s guards and wings must deny penetration and easy passing lanes for Lillard and McCollum, while the bigs must seal off the paint and minimize extra chances for the Blazers. Getting this road trip off on the good foot entails thwarting Portland at every Stotts’ Step along the way.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3