MOOD.
So, we’ve finally reached the floor, right? Right?
All the signs are there that a bounce is in the cards for the Atlanta Hawks, as the Miami heat pay a visit to the Flickering Light Factory (7:30 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast and 92.9 FM in ATL, Fox Sports Sun in MIA). A little home cooking and practice, a tweak to the starting lineup, some recuperation time for the forwards. And an opponent that’s 7-14 and struggling to string complete nights together with an incomplete roster, arriving in town after a 114-103 loss to New York last night.
I’ve already misspelled the heat’s hometown. Right now, it’s M*I*A*M*I. Goran Dragic strained a shoulder last night, shortly after healing his swollen ankle, and will try to give it a go after pacing the heat with 29 points (11-for-17 FGs). Dion Waiters got a tear in an unmentionable, barely-spellable area and is out of action. Josh Richardson is a no-go due to a sprained ankle, and Justise Winslow hasn’t played in nearly a month as he deals with a sprained wrist.
James Johnson? Rotator cuff strain. Luke Babbitt? Hip flexor. Wayne Ellington just returned after sitting out the start of the season with a quad contusion, Derrick Williams just getting back up to speed last night after missing time with back spasms. There’s not even time to waste mentioning Chris Bosh anymore. I’m halfway expecting Radar, Hot Lips Houlihan, and Klinger in a muumuu to accompany coach Erik Spoelstra and the heat tonight.
The Hawks (10-12), hoping to plug their seven-game losing streak, know that no one in the stands is suffering a case of fan-nesia. Or, at least, that’s what they should know.
M*I*A*M*I last came to Philips Arena in February without top-scorer Dwayne Wade (knee), fellow All-Star Bosh (calf), or mega-rebounder Hassan Whiteside (suspended). Yet the Hawks, coming off the All-Star Break, allowed for The Josh McRoberts Variety Hour to air. McBob’s 19 points and 10 assists off the bench (plus Luol Deng’s 30 points) propelled the heat to an 115-111 victory. Atlantans know the heat could put Burnie in the lineup, and an inexcusable L for the Hawks could still not be ruled out.
With so many walking wounded, who does Spoelstra turn to in a pinch this time? “He’s got better rookie Win Shares than Malcolm Delaney… MCGRUDER!” The undrafted K-State product in his first NBA season has been pushed front-and-center into the M*I*A*M*I starting lineup. Last season, Rodney helped lead their Sioux Falls affiliate to the D-League title.
Currently on a nine-game Threak, McGruder is working in tandem with Ellington (and bench man Tyler Johnson) in hopes of spacing the floor for Dragic drives and Whiteside post maneuvers. They’ll be met tonight by Atlanta’s newly-formulated starting pair at the wing.
Thabo Sefolosha filled in capably at small forward in place of Kyle Korver, who seemed to find some footing off the bench during the latest loss to OKC. Thabo will slide to small forward, and will be joined tonight by Tim Hardaway, Jr., who takes over at shooting guard while Kent Bazemore sits out a couple games to be treated for a sore knee.
Timmy had 15 bench points, including 5-for-6 2FGs, in the Hawks’ 93-90 win at South Beach on November 15, back when things were going pretty good for his ballclub. He and Thabo combined for 5 of Atlanta’s 14 steals in that game, a tally the Hawks haven’t surpassed since (13 steals at OKC being the high-water mark lately).
While the “TNT” duo has benefitted by being part of far more efficient bench rotations, Hardaway-Sefolosha has netted the Hawks +6.2 points per 100 possessions (as per Basketball-Reference). Throw in Paul Millsap (probable, while continuing to nurse a sore hip), and the trio leads the Hawks with +19.6 net points per-100.
Today’s matchup of strategies will feature Hack-a-Hawk versus Hack-a-heat. M*I*A*M*I comes into this game as the league’s worst free throw shooting team (66.5 FT%), and the only other NBA squad clanking more than thirty percent of their shots are their hosts tonight, Atlanta shooting 69.9 FT%.
After allowing the Knicks to pile up 56 points in the paint last night, versus their own 36, the heat will have little appetite for Millsap (4 missed FTs in Monday’s loss to OKC; 73.2 FT%, lowest in past three seasons) and Dwight Howard (career-low 48.3 FT%) getting easy buckets.
Coach Spo will rotate in Udonis Haslem, Willie Reed and Williams (4 personals in 15 minutes vs. NYK), to help keep McRoberts (9 rebounds and 5 assists vs. NYK) and Whiteside (NBA-high 14.9 RPG; career-high 25 rebounds vs. ATL on Nov. 15; 23 points, 14 rebounds, 3 blocks vs. NYK) out of early foul trouble. M*I*A*M*I hopes the extra whistles will help slow down Mike Budenholzer’s preferred pace (101.5 possessions per-48, 6th in NBA; 102.7 before Nov. 18, 100.3 since) to one that’s more to their weathered 10-man rotation’s liking.
The heat has once again called upon a shot doctor to help fix their free throw woes. Rob “The Shooting Guy” Fodor has long been in South Florida helping players with their busted shot mechanics, including the father of Hardaway (63.0 FT%, down from 89.3% last season), who starts tonight and could use a little tutelage as well.
Fodor’s advice didn’t pay off at home for the heat against the Knicks (11 missed FTs in the 11-point loss; Whiteside 3-for-9). But Spoelstra is confident his team can turn it around, particularly in away games, where they have managed to shoot just a little better (67.8 road FT%).
Dennis Schröder got a front-row view of a maestro in action on Monday, Russell Westbrook’s floor leadership on full-court display especially in crunch time. Still learning on-the-fly, Schröder (last 3 outings: 16.3 PPG, 46.5 FG%, 87.5 FT%, 8.3 APG, 1.3 TOs per game) has the benefit of scouting the league’s starting lead guards and picking up traits that could help his game as well. That includes the more experienced guards of the Southeast Division, like Dragic, who is about as good as can be when it comes to finishing in the paint.
It’s easy to see why Schröder struggles at times to finish on drives to the hoop; Howard’s man is usually in the vicinity, rather than chasing pick-and-poppers outside the paint. Dennis makes 49.7% of his attempts within 10 feet of the hoop, with a much-higher proportion of attempts coming beyond 3 feet from the rim than in 2015-16. But the challenge is often the same for the point guard who plays alongside Whiteside. And yet Dragic continues to excel.
Goran is a taller, sturdier guard, and while he has struggled mightily at times with two-point jumpers outside the paint, he remains surehanded when he gets inside. While his 57.4 at-rim FG% is the lowest since his rookie season, The Dragon still breathes fire within ten feet of the hoop (53.1 2FG%). Coupled with a career-best 42.1 3FG%, Dragic remains a reliable offensive asset whenever he calls his own number. He’s balancing his best scoring values (17.8 PPG) since his All-NBA 3rd Team and Most Improved Player campaign in 2013-14, with his best assist numbers (6.7 APG, 10th in NBA) since 2012-13.
Schröder could find better looks around the rim tonight if he uses his speed to force the issue on the break. Dennis’ 1.4 PPG on fastbreaks is bottom-third among starting guards, and probably not where Budenholzer needs him to be considering the tempo the coach prefers. But Dennis has had to work with an assortment of starting lineup mates lumbering and laboring with lingering leg issues.
With Hardaway and Sefolosha running the wings (and Korver waiting-in-the wings off the bench), Schröder’s enhanced activity in transition could be one spark Atlanta’s offense needs (NBA-low 92.3 O-Rating in last 20 days; Dallas and Philly rating 97.5; NBA-low 49.4 TS% since Nov. 18) to shake out of its doldrums.
The Hawks should know better than to look down on its opponents, not the least of which because there are many fewer teams in the standings to look down upon. After climbing the Wall last night, Orlando has caught up with Atlanta at 10-12 (no matter the sport, we just can’t shake free of these Central Florida teams). Now, the heat have a chance to shrink their gap with the Hawks down to just 1.5 games.
Despite their current record and their myriad injuries, M*I*A*M*I went 2-2 and 2-1 in road trips over the past three weeks, including a squeaker in Utah last Thursday. They would like to get this trek off to a roaring start before playing in a back-to-back at Cleveland and Chicago over the weekend.
But a rested, refocused, resolute Hawks team won’t give their division-foe visitors the satisfaction this evening. Right? Right?
Honor our past and present service members on this Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day! And Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
