“WE WILL… WE WILL… ROCK YOU!”
As a young Phillies fan, my first real baseball season of conscience was in 1983. Despite a mid-season coaching change, Philadelphia got their bleep together, won 90 games, and claimed the National League East pennant. One problem though. Dale Murphy’s Bravos fell short of a repeat division crown out West, probably thanks to the Dodgers winning 11 of 12 games during the regular season against the Phillies. 11 to 1! How in the world would Philly have a chance in the NLCS, after being dominated by L.A. all year long?
Well, a homer from Sarge Matthews here, a few Ks from Steve Carlton there, bada-boom, bada-bing, and the Phils found themselves back in the Fall Classic. In a head-to-head series, bada-boom, bada-bing is all it takes sometimes to turn the tables.
I’m reminded of those Phightin’ Phils as the sun sets on the Atlanta Hawks’ regular season. Winning three straight last season against Cleveland, while shooting a scintillating 55 percent from the field, had no bearing whatsoever on the confidence the Cavaliers exuded rolling into Atlanta for the conference finals.
By the same token, the Hawks need not be cowed by tonight’s visitors to the Highlight Factory, the Toronto Raptors (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast, TSN), even though Dwane Casey’s club has bested Mike Budenholzer’s in eight of their last ten meetings, including four straight.
Whether or not the Raps extend that streak to five shouldn’t matter one bit to the Hawks if these teams are fortunate enough to meet in a later round, which would be a first for Toronto since 2001. Confidence-building is fine and all, but there is much more to play for at this stage of the season, for both teams.
After sitting LeBron and falling in Indiana last night, Cleveland still isn’t done sewing up pole position in the East. The Raptors (52-25) can move within 2.5 games behind the Cavs with four games left to play if they prevail tonight. After hosting those Pacers tomorrow, their final three come against the Knicks, Sixers, and Nets. So a sweep of likely playoff foes on back-to-back nights would put a lot of pressure on LeBron and Company to pull through. One slip, and any dreams of hosting Game 1 of the ECFs would be kaput.
GM Masai Ujiri has no plans to type up War and Peace-style farewell manifestos anytime soon. But a third consecutive first-round postseason loss could imperil his status going forward, along with that of Casey. Toronto has been known to can people (looking at you, Butch Carter and Sam Mitchell) for far less significant shortcomings. Unlike the Raps’ previous GM, Ujiri doesn’t have a daddy to hook up a new cushy NBA gig for him. He and Casey recognize that drawing an 8-seed that probably just backed their way into the postseason could lessen the likelihood of disaster striking.
As for the Hawks (46-32), they have no looming issues to worry about in the front office, only on the floor and in the standings. Atlanta doesn’t control it’s own destiny for the third and fourth-seeds, as it has to wrest it from Boston (their opponents on Saturday) and Miami. They got no help, Magic Number-wise, last night from their conference colleagues. So when it comes to first-round homecourt advantage, if you need a job to get done, you’re going to have to do it yourself.
After allowing Phoenix to wear itself ragged for a full quarter on Tuesday night, the Hawks turned on the defensive jets and cooled off the Suns for a 103-90 victory. A 59-34 second half all but erased memories of the opening quarter, when Devin Booker, Ronnie Price, Archie Goodwin, Mirza Teletovic, and The Gorilla where plopping threes from all over the floor.
It’s in those opening quarters where the Hawks look like a team that’s feeling out their opponents, and come away looking like they just bearhugged a cactus. Atlanta’s +11.1 net rating in fourth quarters leads the NBA (by comparison, Toronto’s +6.6 ranks third), and their +5.7 in third quarters leads the East. But that per-possession advantage dwindles to a modest +2.0 in second quarters and +1.0 in first quarters (both ratings 11th in NBA) this season.
The Hawks have played close-to-the-vest from the jump against Toronto this season, but they haven’t scored more than 21 first-quarter points in their three meetings, and have been outscored 61-48 in second quarters in their last two meetings. A strong first-half start will be crucial to keeping the Raptors at bay by the close of the contest.
Toronto knows how to get it done. On Tuesday night, they held the visiting Hornets to 16 points in the first frame, widened their lead to 14 by halftime, to 19 in the third-quarter, and never relented even against a fourth-quarter rally from Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker to salt the Raptor lead down to single digits. It was a similar deal last week when Atlanta came to Air Canada Centre. Toronto held the Hawks to 20 points in the first quarter, expanded the lead to 13 by halftime, and pulled ahead by 24 at the outset of the fourth before the Hawks’ bench corps arrived to make the final outcome look respectable.
To get the ball rolling offensively, Atlanta needs to spread the Raptor defense out by sending shooters to the corners. Toronto foes shoot an NBA-high 44.9 3FG% from the left corner, 39.4% from the right. Drawing the Raptors’ defensive bigs out of the paint can open up cuts from the perimeter and weakside.
The Hawks starters must produce when Jeff Teague serves up the ball, most especially Paul Millsap, who had a whale of a game during the comeback against Phoenix (17 rebounds, 8 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks) but has been next to invisible offensively against all season (season-low 84 O-Rating vs. TOR; 11.0 PPG, 9-for-23 2FGs, 1-for-8 3FGs). With Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola piling up points for the Raptors, Sap has to be much more than a rebounding presence tonight.
Phoenix isn’t a strong 3-point shooting unit, but Toronto is (36.9 3FG%, 4th in NBA). Kent Bazemore (17 points, 9 rebounds, 5 steals vs. PHX) ceded open shots at the outset to Phoenix, to help with the interior rebounding and defense, but adjusted accordingly as the Hawks turned things around. Tonight, his role needs to be more pronounced around the perimeter, helping to thwart dribble penetration from DeMar DeRozan but also helping Kyle Korver keep hands in the face of Terrence Ross and Norman Powell. And there's no telling what our good friend DeMarre Carroll (inactive since Jan. 3; 37.8 3FG%), finally activated for tonight's action, will bring to the table.
Millsap must also close out properly on Scola (40.9 3FG%) and Patterson, making boxing out duty for Al Horford and Kris Humphries imperative against a much-improved Jonas Valanciunas (13.7 O-Reb%, 5th in NBA) and Bismack Biyombo.
Toronto may have more TO’s in their name than they allow in a game. The Hawks thrive on transition points off turnovers, but the Raptors have averaged just 12 TOs in their three contests against Atlanta. The Hawks are a mediocre 10-10 when they compel 12 or fewer turnovers, including the 12 committed by Cleveland in their 110-108 OT win at Philips last Friday.
Eight of those ten Hawks victories had opponents shooting below 40 percent from the field. Toronto, by contrast, shot 45.6 percent, including 11-for-23 on threes in the March 30 game. The Dinos also earned more than double Atlanta’s free throws (28 to 13) in their last meeting.
The story is always the same defensively. Man defenders have to turn Lowry and DeRozan into volume jumpshooters, and position themselves to force them into either taking inefficient shots, drawing charges or giving up the ball, without committing ticky-tack fouls.
Despite a poor shooting night in Toronto on March 30 (4-fpr-19 FGs), Lowry scored 7 of his 17 points at the stripe. It was a similar deal for Lowry back on March 10 (6-for-14 FGs, 6-for-8 FTs) during Toronto’s 104-96 win. And during the Raps’ last visit to ATL, Lowry got to the line 12 times, 11 of his makes contributing to a successful 31-point night.
No matter the recent history between these teams, the Hawks know what it takes to top Toronto on any given night. And they understand how valuable a victory could be as they move toward the end of the season. There’s nothing to it, but to do it.
Let’s Go Hawks!
~lw3
