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  • Hawks at Wizards

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    lethalweapon3

     

    “Gahhh… not this Dennis kid, again!”

     

    The second of five road back-to-backs for the Atlanta Hawks concludes today as they visit the Washington Wizards (7:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast in ATL, NBC Sports Washington) at the newly renamed Capital One Arena. So let’s take a glance, and see what’s in owner Ted Leonsis’ wallet.

    After reaching the Conference Semifinals for the third time in four seasons last season, courtesy of a Hawks team that wasn’t entirely up to the task, Washington entered 2017-18 with the league’s fifth-largest salary load. As it stands, Wizard contracts rack up as the fifth-highest in the NBA for next season, third-largest in 2019-20, highest in 2020-21, and second-most in 2021-22.

    They’re led by John Wall (listed as probable, despite an illness), a white shark in a point guard’s body who is still seeking his just due as one of the league’s upper-echelon great players. Wall’s $18 million salary more than doubles two seasons from now, allowing him to surpass fellow starters Bradley Beal ($24 million) and Otto Porter ($25 million), who each received new deals over the past two summers.

    By then, Washington can get out from under Marcin Gortat’s $13 million take-home pay, but probably not that of Gortat’s backup, Ian Mahinmi, who virtually pulls in Kent Bazemore money ($16 million) through 2019-20 while playing just over 12 minutes per game. The team also bolstered their long-woeful bench with former Hawk Mike Scott (18.3 minutes/game, most since 2013-14; career-high 46.7 3FG%) and guards Jodie Meeks and Tim Frazier.

    Leonsis opined in the Washington Post just yesterday about the need for “The DMV” to become America’s next great “supercity”, and Ted is putting supercity money where his mouth is when it comes to his Capitals, his Mystics, and certainly his NBA team. Wall and the Wizards know they’re in this together for the long-haul, one of the only starting-five units carried over from last season. But the time is now, not later, to establish themselves as a stalwart in the Eastern Conference.

    While most prognosticators pegged Cleveland and Boston as Washington’s superiors, the sense of urgency around The District heightened further as the Celtics’ injuries stack up and the Cavaliers continue to flounder. The coast is clear to seize the day and surge to the top of the NBA East.

    The Wizards, therefore, have no business losing games to Lonzo “can’t throw it in the Potomac” Ball and the Lakers, as was the case last month. They can’t be blowing 18-point leads in the space of 12 minutes, even at Golden State. They cannot afford to give up 122 points and lose home games to teams in turmoil that halfway don’t wanna be here, like Phoenix. They can’t let LeBron waltz into Capital One and discredit them with 57 points before a national audience.

    Washington (6-5) did bounce back last weekend with a road win at Toronto (where have you gone, Kyle Lowry?) without a shoulder-sprained Wall. But then their star returned to the floor, on Tuesday, just in time to watch Dallas stroll out of D.C. with a 113-99 victory. They got a measure of revenge by coasting to a win against the Lakers on Thursday night. But wins like that, and the one they desperately want today, are supposed to be the norm, not just a hope.

    The fun part of following the Atlanta Hawks (2-10) this season is the knowledge that every game is an absolute-must-win for their opponents. Knowing their role, Atlanta is either establishing the depths of their floor, or breaking their slide. Whether you’re Lauri Markkanen or Nikola Jokic, Reggie Jackson or Kyrie Irving, the Hawks are allowing the ball to fall into your hands and daring you to beat them with big-time shots when it counts.

    It may come down to another big play in the final frame, but coach Scott Brooks is going to need greater perimeter volume and better accuracy out of guards Wall (1.0 3FGs/game, 27.0 3FG%) and Beal (2.0 3FGs/game, 36.7 3FG%). Brooks also needs his All-Stars, and his handsomely-paid big men, to take duties on the defensive side of the floor seriously if the Wizards (104.6 D-Rating, 19th in NBA) are to be taken seriously as an NBA Finals contender.

    In the six games where Washington has been “in the clutch” (as per NBA.com stats, within five points of the lead with under five minutes to play in regulation/overtime), they’ve allowed 12.3 PPG, second-most in the league (Atlanta’s 10.0 opponent PPG in 7 games ranks 6th-highest) behind only Oklahoma City.

    Only Dallas’ foes have had fewer problems getting restricted-area shots (67.6 opponent 2FG%, 2nd-highest in NBA) to fall softly into the net. Gortat and Markieff Morris (probable, with a gimpy ankle) like to fashion themselves as intimidators. Wall and Beal occasionally wish to remind you what poses and jibber-jabber they’ve learned from their respective hardscrabble upbringings, while sub forward Kelly Oubre (career-high 11.0 PPG; 38.3 2FG%, 44.4 3FG%) has the whole ready-punch-aim gameplan down to a science. But none of that wannabe-toughness has been demonstrated around the defensive rim (36.1 opponent paint points per-48, 6th-most in NBA; 75.5 D-Reb%, 24th in NBA).

    Washington wants to play bully-ball themselves in and around the paint (66.4 restricted-area FG%, 6th in NBA). But that often comes at the expense of failing to get back in transition, and a John Wall-led team should not be getting outscored on the regular (12.5-10.6 PPG) when it comes to fastbreak offense. Dennis Schröder, Taurean Prince and Kent Bazemore (combined 6 of Atlanta’s 11 steals on Friday) should continue not only getting stops but pushing the ball in transition, forcing Wall and Beal to make a greater share of plays on the defensive end.

    In last night’s 111-104 loss to Detroit that was a surprising toss-up until the final minute of action, Mike Budenholzer did a sound job of preserving John Collins (16 points and 8 rebounds in 27 minutes; 20.4 player efficiency rating, 1st among rookies w/ 10+ minutes/game) for the second half, where he could wreck shop around the rim and beat his man consistently down the floor. Proper tag-teaming of Collins, the only legit Hawk big-man coming off the bench, with Dewayne Dedmon and Luke Babbitt can keep the Atlanta offense diversified and confound the Wizards’ frontline.

    Atlanta holding serve up front for three-and-a-half quarters will require Wall (if available), Beal, and Porter (career-highs of 17.9 PPG, 51.1 3FG%) to make the Wizards the best single-digit conqueror of the Hawks that $125 million in team salary can buy.

    Let’s Go Hawks!

    ~lw3


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