Is Mike Budenholzer pulling off a Long Con on the whole NBA?

After defeating the Detroit Pistons on MLK Day, Coach Bud moved to within one victory, ideally tonight at home against the Indiana Pacers (7:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth, Fox Sports Indiana), of securing a midseason gig that no “experts,” no pundits, no bloggers, no game thread preview writers, anywhere, expected him to have. And yet, fools like yours truly run fresh from Philips Arena following Monday’s 13^th straight victory, one short of the franchise record, and head straight for the boxscores.

Did the Hawks actually fail to snare an offensive rebound in the entire first half? Did we allow Detroit to grab a whopping season-high 61 rebounds, including 20 on the offensive end? Gee willikers, imagine if we got just half of those boards… we could have won by double digits! Wait, wut? Don’t trouble me with facts, I’m on a soapbox here!

What, pray tell, will happen when the Big Bad Boogie Men of the Postseason show up and snatch our wittle basketball away from us? Teams like… Indiana? Okay, well then how about Washington? Or… gasp!... Chicago? Perpetual victory wins power rankings and Vegas odds, sure. But how can we convince, say, a guy who ate his way into a career as The Round Mound of Rebound, that rebounding doesn’t win championships? (Don’t tell him to count the rings on his fat fingers, that’s not nice.) How do we get guys like Two Buck Chuck to go all-in on the Hawks Bandwagon if we’re looking at our opponents every time down the floor like, “Welp! We gave it our best shot, so enjoy your little rebound! No, really, we actually did give it our best shot. See, we pass up good shots for better ones, so…”

The media can’t figure it out either, so for answers after the Detroit game they ran to Budenholzer, who was as ohgoshdarnit as anyone. ''I covered my eyes sometimes when the ball went up to the rim,'' Coach Bud offered up as a response sugar-dusted with meekness. At times, it looked like the Hawks on the floor saw-no-evil too.

But Coach Bud is the guy who can sit down with a bunch of flashy, self-centered guys at the poker table and awshucks his way to walking out with everybody’s money. It takes a while before people realize it’s not just dumb luck. What good is it for one to gain all the basketballs in the world but lose the game? Stan Van Gundy and the rest of the NBA are struggling to sort that quandary out.

Including all three games against the Pistons and both games played so far against the Pacers, the Hawks are 20-2 on the season when they tally LESS than eight offensive rebounds… 16-0 when they snag LESS than six of ‘em. Bud tipped his hand a little immediately after his cover-your-eyes remark: ''Our guys are fighting. It's not for lack of effort... We're prioritizing transition defense and getting back.'' Bud’s not covering his eyes to cower – he’s humblebragging that he can win plenty of games like this with his eyes closed. It’s about more than passing up good shots for great shots; for Budenholzer, it’s more important to pass up great offensive rebounds for good defensive positioning on the other end on the floor.

That showed up in Detroit’s 12 first-quarter points, their lowest offensive output in any quarter this season, as Andre Drummond nearly matched that number in rebounds (11 first-quarter boards). That showed up in the Pistons making just 29 of their 82 shots (35.4 FG%, 25.7 3FG%), as the meager leads they could were canceled faster than you could say, “Sorority Sisters.” Greg Monroe had 20 boards, Drummond 18. Yet no one on the Pistons roster compiled more than 16 points (the Hawks had 2 such players) or 5 assists (Atlanta had 4 players) on the day. It’s as deflating as a Foxboro football to expend all that energy “beating” the Hawks on the glass for naught.

It shows up in Atlanta zipping past Indiana and several other teams this past week for the top per-game defense in the NBA (96.3 opponent PPG). Hawk foes connect on just 43.5% of shots (lowest in the East, 4^th-lowest in NBA) and barely a third of their three-pointers (2^nd-lowest in the East) even as they shoot a league-high 26.1 shots per game desperately trying to keep up with Korver and Kompany.

It shows up in the Hawks ceding the 4^th-fewest points in the paint, and the 3^rd-fewest fastbreak points, despite the second-most second-chance points. All of this while Budenholzer keeps dishing out “credit” to the guys on the other end of the sideline for their stellar rebounding efforts. This is what Three-card Monte looks like when it’s being played on the hardwood.

High-rebounding opponents keep looking at the Hawks’ fly trap and see nothing but a picnic table cover. Coach Frank Vogel and his Pacers (45.4 RPG, right between Detroit and Chicago in the East) have been victimized by The Budenhustler twice already this season. In November, Roy Hibbert and Luis Scola each had double-doubles as Indiana held Atlanta to their season-low 3 offensive rebounds, attempted ten more three-pointers than the Hawks… and lost, by 10. Just over one month later, the Pacers held the Hawks to six O-Rebs, earned seven more field goal attempts… and lost, by 16.

Not flailing away amidst the behemoths for fleeting second-chance opportunities keeps Hawks center Al Horford (6-for-9 FGs, 7 assists; 6 rebounds, all defensive; no personal fouls and one turnover in 34 minutes vs. DET on Monday), the reigning Eastern Conference Player of the Week, on the floor to do the things he does best. Averaging a career-low 1.8 personal fouls per game, he’s a different kind of beast at the pivot, and only now is Coach Bud really utilizing him to achieve his ends.

The Hawks were best able to stretch the lead with The CatALyst (+20 plus-minus) on hand versus Detroit, his fifth consecutive game registering at least a +15, a value he exceeded just once in his previous 35 contests this season. Atlanta’s 23-1 when Horf (22.5 PPG and 56.3 FG% in two games vs. the Pacers) finishes the day with a positive plus-minus, undefeated in those games since mid-November.

Of course, Indiana (97.9 offensive rating, 2^nd-lowest in NBA; 50.7 TS%, 3^rd-lowest in NBA) still sorely misses Paul George, who’s up and dunking now but will remain wisely sidelined for the remainder of the season. But there’s another starter who’s been missing time intermittently that the Pacers could use tonight. Point guard George Hill has been out since January 1 with a groin strain. Without either one available to hold the fort for Indy (15-28), losers of their past five games, it has been Peanut Butter Jelly Time for a different backcourt/swingman opponent almost every night.

James Harden torched ‘em for 45 last Monday. Gerald Henderson got his groove back during a 80-71 overtime snoozefest last Saturday. Brandon Jennings’ 37 points helped Detroit edge Indiana last Friday. Mo Williams walks into the Fieldhouse averaging 11.0 PPG and drops 52 on the Pacers last Tuesday. The week before that, Tony Wroten comes off the bench for 20-and-9 to give the Sixers just their 7^th win of the year. The Pacers needed OT just to overcome Avery Bradley’s 23. Klay Thompson hangs a 40-spot on them while Steph Curry is “held” to 21-and-15.

That's all a good sign for Kyle Korver, Mr. 50/50/90. It’s also shaping up to be a nice bounce-back game for the Hawks’ leading scorer Jeff Teague, after struggling with his shooting touch (9-for-31 FGs, 1-for-9 3FGs) in head-to-head matchups with Brandon Jennings and Derrick Rose. To be fair, Jennings wound up the worse for wear, shooting just 1-for-10 against the Hawks. Teague has totaled just ten turnovers in his past six games while averaging 9.0 APG and clearly agitating the league’s most lauded lead guards.

Teague averaged 23.0 PPG on 60.0 FG% and just 1.0 TOs/game in his two meetings with Indiana, both times with Hill out-of-action. Hill practiced yesterday and may return tonight for the Pacers (6.0 team SPG, 2^nd-lowest in NBA). If not, as Teague and Dennis Schröder blow by the likes of C.J. Watson (starting despite playing with foot problems) and Rodney Stuckey, Vogel will need one of the Pacers in the frontcourt to disrupt their forays into the lane.

That person ought to be one of David West or Solomon Hill. But Budenholzer’s pace-and-space-in-your-face offense dictates the Pacer forwards will need to stay home against Paul Millsap (team-high 20 points, 3-for-6 3FGs vs. Detroit) and DeMarre Carroll, who’s also looking to get back on the good foot offensively (4.5 PPG, 3-for-12 FGs vs. CHI and DET).

As it is, Vogel will lean instead on Hibbert (6.0 block percentage, 3^rd in NBA), Ian Mahinmi (missed a month with a torn plantar fascia; 14 rebounds, played entire fourth quarter at center @HOU on Monday) and Lavoy Allen, in hopes the Hawks’ guards will depend a lot less on their passing wizardry and more on giant-killer shots.

Coupling their post defense with frenzied board-crashing on the offensive end, the Pacer post players should create enough extra rebounds and opportunities to keep Indiana in contention tonight.

Maybe. Ain’t that right, Coach Bud? Quick... cover your eyes!

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3