What to do? What to do?

By now, you’re well versed in the potential Net effects of Brooklyn missing the postseason and the Hawks outperforming them. That circumstance presents unique dilemmas for tankologists whenever the Hawks play one of the less-sucky teams in the Atlantic Division, none more so than this afternoon’s opponent, the Boston Celtics (1:00 PM Eastern, SportSouth, CSN New England).

Should the Hawks (17-14) allow Boston (13-17) to close out 2013 on a high note, potentially tying with the Raptors (13-15, in Chicago tonight) atop their division and playing keepaway with the Nets? Or should Atlanta aim to expand their own cushion between themselves and their Brooklyn brethren?

Unfortunately, the Hawks aren’t good enough to control their own destiny, much less anyone else’s, especially after losing Al Horford (in surgery today for his torn ta-ta) for at least the remainder of the regular season. On the positive side, the Celtics, 1-3 in their last four games, aren’t good enough, either. The best the Hawks can do is to win all the games they can, and let the rest of the Eastern Conference sort itself out.

However, the Beantown ballers are just peachy with the prospect of both the Nets and the Hawks making it to Lottery Night. While the playoffs were not a priority for Danny Ainge and company when the season started, having the Knicks and Nets surprisingly in their rear view mirror with Rajon Rondo’s return on the horizon changes things a bit. It’s tea time, Boston. Would you like one lotto pick, or two?

Lately, the Celts have been letting double-digit leads erode away in the second half like a Massachusetts shoreline. In the past two-and-a-half weeks, Boston lost two games (at home vs. Detroit and Washington) where they led by 18+ points in the first half, and blew a 17-point second quarter lead to the Knicks before scrambling for a win at TD Garden. Then on Saturday night, they needed a late block by Brandon Bass on Cleveland’s Dion Waiters to save themselves from another home game collapse, as the Cavs frittered a 19-point deficit down to two in the closing seconds.

Both teams understand No Lead is Safe. Certainly Atlanta, who watched Bass (17 points, 2 late game blocks of Jeff Teague) lead the way on November 23 for a 30-13 fourth quarter, converting a 76-64 Hawks lead into a 94-87 Celtics win. The Hawks have to establish a second unit that can at least hold hard-earned leads reasonably steady. Pero Antić, Cartier Martin, Lou Williams, and Mike Scott (first start this season today... good luck!) all got pulled in the fourth quarter of that November game after collectively allowing the lead to evaporate.

The Hawks will also need Jeff Teague to become a consistent closer in crunch time. Horford scored the

only two field goals for Atlanta in the final nine minutes of the November 23 loss to Boston, and the Hawks could not stop Orlando’s forays into the paint on Sunday, after briefly overtaking the lead in the final quarter.

Celtics coach Brad Stevens is a self-professed fan of Teague’s, recently noting that he tried hard to recruit the pebble-snatching point guard down the road from Teague’s Indianapolis high school to Butler. He’ll throw Avery Bradley at Teague, who has been a statistical marvel amid all the overtime games of late (last four games: 25.5 PPG, 9.3 APG, 53.3 FG%).

Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind? Not if it’s Jordan Crawford! He Whose Name Should Not Have Been Mentioned shot 7-for-11 against Cleveland on Saturday to lead the team with 19 points and 5 assists. This month, he has averaged 16.2 PPG and 5.8 APG, and has grown to become a personal favorite of Tommy Heinsohn, who asserts Jordan is “a keeper and a half.” Crawford ranks third in the league, behind Dirk Nowitzki and Afflalo, with 44.5 FG% on pull-up shots (minimum five pull-up attempts per game). Atlanta will need Lou Williams and Shelvin Mack to offset the offensive production of Crawford (10 assists, but 0-for-5 on threes on November 23) and Courtney Lee.

Similar to the challenge the Hawks had holding back Arron Afflalo on Sunday, they’ll have similar problems today with Boston’s leading scorer, Jeff Green. Despite his 16.2 PPG, he dishes out just 1.5 APG; only Minnesota behemoth Nikola Pekovic dishes out fewer dimes among the league’s leading scorers. While Rondo bides his time in recovery, Boston’s second-leading passer behind Crawford is Gerald Wallace (2.5 APG), meaning there’s a lot of Celtic players calling their own number on offense (18.7 team APG, lowest in NBA). The heroball gets worse in the final quarter, as Boston’s 1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks as the worst in the league.

Boston has lots of options upfront, from Bass and Green and Jared Sullinger, to Kris Humphries and Wallace and Kelly Olynyk. But with Atlanta playing at an accelerated pace, they all need be active bangers against a depleted Hawks frontline that gave up 22 points to Tristan Thompson, 24 points and 23 rebounds to Al Jefferson, and 16-and-14 to Nikola Vucevic in the past week. Elton Brand and Antić will have to occasionally come out of the paint on defense, as Boston’s bigs like to take open mid-range shots.

Hawk defenders will need to keep their hands up and keep their opponents out of their comfort zones, particularly the corners (46.9 corner 3FG%, 3^rd in NBA) and at mid-range (42.3 FG%, 5^th in NBA). Bradley is a prime target on these parts of the floor. Forcing Boston’s shooters to pass up on well-defensed shots can create turnovers and transition opportunities for Atlanta.

Happy New Year! And Go Hawks!

~lw3