Will the power outage continue tonight? The Atlanta Hawks’ offense (102.1 PPG, 2^nd in Eastern Conference) was flying high until it ran head-on into the Pacers, Pelicans, and Grizzlies over the past week. It gets no easier soaring against the Chicago Bulls (8:00 PM Eastern, SportSouth, CSN Chicago), who hope the charge past the Hawks in the Eastern Conference standings.

The Hawks (25-24) have been unable to control the pace-of-play in their last three games, all losses. There’s no reason to believe that won’t continue against Head Coach Tom Thibodeau’s Bulls (90.6 possessions per-48, 2^nd-lowest pace in NBA). In 11 regular-season games coaching against the Hawks, his Bulls’ defense has kept Atlanta under 90 points in nine of them. That includes last month’s 91-84 win at Philips Arena where the Bulls held the Hawks to 37.2% shooting (28.6 3FG%).

Only Golden State has reached the century mark among the Bulls’ last eight opponents. The Bulls force uncomfortable shots outside of the paint (27.4 opponent mid-range shots, 2^nd only to Indiana), and effectively seal off the rim area to minimize foes’ second-chance opportunities.

That’s not to say the Bulls (25-25) are scorching the nets either (92.1 PPG, last in NBA). They’ve surpassed 100 points in regulation just twice in their last 15 games. Their 97.3 points per 100 possessions exceeds only the wretched 76ers and Bucks. But in their case, that’s largely by design. Unlike some fans, Chicago’s aren’t coming to the arena solely for the faint hope of a free cheesesteak. Absent Rose, the Bulls are perfectly fine scoring under 100 if they can consistently keep your team below 90.

Nikola Mirotic’s seat-warmer, Carlos Boozer (14.8 PPG) has been out of action for about a week with a strained calf. With Luol Deng not-so-hot in Cleveland and Derrick Rose in a suit for the rest of the season, if Boozer can’t go, say hello to Chicago’s leading scorer… D.J. Augustin (13.9 PPG).

Left for dead after getting cut by Toronto (2.1 PPG, 8.2 minutes per game), Augustin has averaged 16.5 PPG and 5.6 APG since Deng was dealt. He’s shot 45.1 FG% and 45.9 3FG% over the past 30 days, but it’s safe to assume that, when he has a clunker of a game, the Bulls are losing big. Since mid-December the Bulls have dropped eight games by double-digit deficits, and in those games he’s shot a combined 34.2 FG%. Conversely, in their six double-digit wins he’s made half of his two-point and three-point shots.

Atlanta touts a record of 20-2 when Jeff Teague (3-for-10, 4 assists and 4 turnovers vs. Memphis on Saturday; one steal in last three games) registers a plus-minus of +1 or higher (18-1 when Teague’s plus-minus is +5 or better), but is an unsightly 0-16 when it’s below -5 (3-20 when -1 or worse). He and the Hawks’ point guards have struggled containing second-tier point guards late in games, and will want to play tighter shot defense on Augustin on the left side of the floor (49.3 season FG%), than the right side (38.2 FG%).

The Bulls do apply patience to their ball movement before settling on shots. Only the Hawks (67.6 assists per 100 possessions) have a higher assist percentage than the Bulls (64.3 assist percentage). The downside for Chicago is they expose themselves to turnovers (15.7 TOs/game, 5^th most in NBA, 2^nd most in East) trying to scramble as the end of the shot clock nears. It’s not so much the pickoffs (8.3 opponent steals per 100 possessions, 4^th most in East), it’s the non-transition errors like offensive fouls, traveling, and shot-clock and three-second violations. Still, the Hawks can’t waste valuable scoring opportunities, and must come away at least with free throw attempts when transitioning off of steals.

Boozer’s potential absence won’t simplify matters for Paul Millsap (16 points and 12 rebounds, 6 of them offensive vs. Chicago in January, 5-for-18 shooting), as Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah (20 points and 13 boards vs. the Lakers on Sunday) can gang up to keep him off the glass. As was the case in recent games facing talented defensive bigs, Millsap doesn’t have the benefit of a Pero Antić to draw Noah away. Nonetheless, he’s put together four straight games with ten-plus rebounds and three games with double-doubles in his past four games (18.3 PPG, 11.5 RPG). He’s also credited with an average of 3.8 steals in his past five contests.

The Bulls’ defense will be stretched thin if Gibson, Jimmy Butler and ex-Hawk Kirk Hinrich are caught trying to keep up with the Hawks’ hot wings along the perimeter. DeMarre Carroll will join ex-Bulls Kyle Korver and Cartier Martin (combined 11-for-21 on three-pointers in past two games) to spread Chicago out. The Bulls will try to counter offensively with Mike Dunleavy (team-high 20 points on 9-for-14 shooting at Atlanta in January). It will be the responsibilities of Teague, Millsap, and centers like former Bulls draft pick Elton Brand to exploit the lane when Gibson comes out to help.

Go Hawks!

~lw3