November 17. The Denver Nuggets slink into the same Quicken Loans Arena that their opponents this afternoon, the Atlanta Hawks (3:30 PM Eastern, NO LOCAL TV, 92.9-FM, Altitude Sports Network) passed through just two nights before. In seven of Denver’s eight prior games, they allowed over 100 points, well over in several cases; 116 and 130 to Portland in consecutive games, 110 and 131 during a home-and-home with Sacramento.

The Hawks had just been barbequed 127-94 by the Cleveland Cavaliers, the same formerly struggling team that beat Denver in their house by nine points just ten days before. Now, here are LeBron’s troops, newly confident, rested, and lying in wait for a 2-7 Nuggets team that got blasted by the Knicks… the Knicks!... one day before.

A perfect time for a season turnaround.

Hot-seated coach Brian Shaw started pulling the right strings, and a Denver team that was certain the end was near shocked a Cavs team that thought the worst was over. The 110-101 win kicked off a 7-2 winning stretch that transformed what was the NBA’s most disappointing team into the playoff contender they were expected to be, back to .500 in the Western Conference. But after a 30-point setback on Friday in Washington, their largest defeat of the season, the Nuggets (9-10) would greatly appreciate a quicker bounce-back victory this afternoon at the Highlight Factory.

Speedy lead guard Ty Lawson recently conducted an AMA (“Ask Me Anything”) on Reddit, and in response to, “Who are you passing to for the last shot?,” he provided a Kendrick Lamarian one-word answer: “Myself”. While Denver’s leading scorer (16.5 PPG) and assist-maker (10.3 APG, 2^nd in NBA; 11.3 APG in last ten games, 3^rd in NBA) was joking, on this team, it was certainly not the worst answer to give. When he dishes out the ball, it’s not likely he’ll get to see it back.

Based on Sport-Vu player-tracking data, Denver passes the ball a league-low 257.1 times per game. After Lawson, Randy Foye (out for another week with a quad tear) creates 2.0 APG, and we know what new chicken-and-waffles restaurateur Nate Robinson (1.8 APG) has in mind when the ball touches his hands. Nate the Great is questionable for today’s action after bruising his back in D.C. on Friday. To spell Lawson, Shaw may have to turn to Erick Green (ACC!), a 6’3” second-year guard who led the NCAA his senior year in… scoring. Rookie two-guard Gary Harris may get a chance to share the floor with his fellow Spartan teammate, the Hawks’ Adreian Payne, who’s back from a D-League stint.

Essentially, the Nuggets offense features playing ready to shoot (Arron Afflalo, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Foye, Robinson), players ready to dunk (Kenneth Faried, J.J. Hickson, JaVale McGee, Alonzo Gee), players ready to clean up their teammates’ messes (Faried, Timofey Mozgov, Darrell Arthur)… and Ty Lawson. Ranked 6^th in the league in pace, Denver wastes little time executing the plays they want.

Shaw has been able to turn things around in part by tightening up his rotation and leaning even more heavily on Lawson to control the action. Offensively, doing so lessened the risk that under-competent players wind up in decisionmaking situations with the ball that involved anything other than trying to score. Defensively, it’s allowed for better communication and fewer breakdowns. Denver allowed opponents to shoot at least 45.0 FG% in six of the first nine games, just three times in the next nine games.

The Hawks will obviously want to do what they can defensively to press Lawson (NBA-leading 13.3 drives per game) into giving the ball up to teammates, and then making it difficult for him to get the ball back while pressuring his teammates into turnovers. Atlanta will also want to minimize low-post touches by Faried (similar to Robinson, questionable with a strained back), another star from Team USA that entered the season with inflated expectations, and the bruising big Mozgov.

Pero Antić will have an active role in keeping Mozgov and maybe McGee (doubtful, playing through tibia pain) from easy baskets around the rim. Rookie Jusuf Nurkic is not accompanying the Nuggets on this road trip, which continues tomorrow in Toronto, for personal reasons. Dealing with so many banged-up bigs, Al Horford and Paul Millsap should be able to have target practice from mid-range and beyond, while the guards and wings will be able to create havoc with halfcourt drives.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3