Let’s see if our oft-dysfunctional Atlanta Hawks can pick up the pace tonight at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. (We get our first taste of the ornithologically-correct 1990's jerseys tonight!)

If the Hawks thought an undermanned Chicago Bulls bunch gave them a world of trouble, getting

outworked both early and late in a 93-76 loss on Saturday Night at Philips Arena, how will they fare against an Indiana Pacers squad that beat those same Bulls (with Carlos Boozer back) 111-101 just last night? After a three-game road swoon, the Pacers are looking to sweep out a successful four-game homestand, highlighted by defeats of Miami and division rival Chicago.

Both Indy and Chicago await the returns of their star players in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the division standings aren’t the only place where the Pacers and Bulls (both 29-19 atop the Central Division) are running neck-and-neck. The teams are 1-and-2, respectively, in opponent field goal percentage (42.0 and 42.8 FG%), and are first-and-second in the East in opponent scoring (90.1 and 91.0 PPG). Going into last night’s contest, foes of each team were shooting 28.5% of their field goals from 16-to-23 feet (highest proportion in the NBA), and just 19.7% of their shots from three-point range (lowest proportion in the NBA).

Coach Frank Vogel appears to be mimicking the successful perimeter strategies deployed by his

contemporary, Tom Thibodeau, as opponent three point shooting (32.7 3FG%) is very similar to Chicago’s (33.5 3FG%). But there’s a little slack by Indiana defending the long-range two-pointers (39.8 opponent FG%, 6^th highest in NBA). The shots are terribly inefficient, and the Pacers bet every night they can funnel opposing shots to this range so they won’t get burned.

The Hawks, among just six NBA teams that take more than half their shots from beyond 15 feet of the rim, should have much more success at those long-range twos against Indy than they did against Chicago (34.9 opponent FG%, 4^th lowest in NBA). Among NBA players that take more than one shot per game from this range, Atlanta’s three-pointmeister Kyle Korver ranks among the top ten in accuracy at this range, currently shooting 51 percent.

The Pacers remain the league’s strongest total rebounding team. Benefitting from a size advantage at

many positions, they take a committed team approach to boxing opponents out of the paint. Revealing this point, not one Pacer ranks among the top 40 NBA players for total rebounding rate, and not one ranks among the top 80 for defensive rebounding rate. But they have five players with at least 3.0 defensive rebounds per game (Atlanta has four), and six averaging 1.0 or more offensive rebounds per game (Atlanta has four).

One of those four Hawks is Zaza Pachulia, who started against Indiana on December 29 (17 points, 14

rebounds) but remains out with a sore Achilles. Larry Drew has said he hopes to deploy Johan Petro (game-time decision) to help diminish Indiana’s size advantage Roy Hibbert will have inside during the course of the game. A strong, collaborative rebounding effort from Petro, Anthony Tolliver and Ivan Johnson can help keep Atlanta in contention.

The Hawks will have to find ways to produce offense from their guards inside the perimeter. Devin Harris (sore foot) will be unavailable, so Anthony Morrow, John Jenkins, and especially DeShawn Stevenson (over 84% of his shot attempts are threes) will have to diversify their offensive attack. Morrow and Naptown native Jeff Teague are accurate free throw shooters and will help the Hawks’ cause by drawing fouls once Atlanta gets into the bonus. The Bulls’ Marco Belinelli came back from an

ankle injury to contribute a career-high 24 points on Monday, while Nate Robinson was a thorn in Indiana’s side, with 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists. Chicago’s guards shot a combined 19-for-29 on two-pointers (just 4-for-12 from three-point range). Belinelli also drove inside repeatedly and drew fouls, going 5-for-6 from the line.

Chicago’s frontline, though, could not fend off the Pacers, who tied their season-high with 34 free

throw attempts. Their offense came largely from an All-Star-caliber pair of forwards (Paul George and David West) along with some hard-charging guards in George Hill and Lance Stephenson. The latter served up his fourth-straight double-digit scoring effort and appears to be emerging as a reliable offensive threat.

Hibbert continues to have a half-baked season. One year removed from an All-Star contract season,

the center ranks in the top five of the league for offensive rebounders (3.8 Offensive RPG), but even with putbacks he’s shooting a horrific 41.3 FG% this season, while his free throw shooting and passing is the worst since his rookie year five seasons ago. Despite a combined eight offensive boards, he’s shot just 6-for-19 in his last two games against the HEAT and Bulls.

Hibbert is turning shots back (2.6 BPG, 4^th in NBA), but his flails at the ball are coming at the expense of his rebounding (4.4 Defensive RPG and 17.4 Defensive Rebound percentage, down from prior two seasons). Horford can step out in pick-and-pop sets, forcing Hibbert to either step out of the lane and contest (allowing Josh Smith to do work inside) or stay at home to keep driving guards from collapsing the defense.

During the December 29 matchup in Atlanta, Hibbert was benched by Vogel after 20 minutes of 0-for-2,

one-rebound, one-block, no-points basketball, forcing the Pacers to resort to a committee of Ian Mahinmi (for scoring and blocks), and Tyler Hansbrough (for rebounds). Horford and Pachulia had a field day for the Hawks, who prevailed 109-100 without an injured Smith. West rang up 29 points but was helpless defensively without Hibbert’s influence against Atlanta, as the Hawks shot 55.0% from the field and nailed half of their threes.

Despite the win against the Bulls last night, Monday was the third game in Indiana’s last six where they’ve given up 100 points to the opposition. They held opponents to double-digit tallies in all but two of their previous 25 contests. Smart shot decision making and strategic efforts to crash the offensive glass will help the Hawks make tonight’s game competitive. The Hawks are 2-0 against the Pacers, but this will be their first game in Indy against the team tied for the best home record in the East (19-3).

Go Hawks!

~lw3