Excuse me, Atlanta Hawks, but may the Dallas Mavericks borrow your ladder? “We put ourselves in a hole, Vince Carter told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram at shootaround this morning, “and we’re trying to climb back out.”

The Mavericks (22-28) are hoping they’re finally ready to make a run back into the Western Conference playoff picture. After a hellacious 2-13 swoon in late December-early January (including five overtime losses) while Dirk Nowitzki played himself back into starter-quality shape, Dallas went on a four-game streak a month ago, but has been treading water (5-5) ever since. Tonight’s Hawks game is amidst a 7-out-of-8 stretch of home games (including Sacramento, Orlando, and the Flakers) spread across the All-Star Break for a team coming off back-to-back wins against Portland and Golden State.

Franchise face Dirk Nowitzki has not had to carry the team offensively so far. His 14.7 PPG, 40.7 FG%, and 5.5 RPG are each 14-season-lows. Yet in every win Dallas has had since his return on December 23, they’ve scored at least 100 points. The Hawks will want to slow the tempo (Dallas ranks 5th in pace), occasionally putting fullcourt pressure on their guards (Darren Collison, Rodrigue Beaubois, Dominique Jones, Mike James) bringing the ball up the floor. Coach Larry Drew is hoping Anthony Tolliver’s length and Josh Smith’s athleticism will keep Dirk Struggler (31.0 FG% in his last three games) a subpar shooter from the field.

In Coach Rock Carlisle’s offense, the primary scoring duty has been left to a guy who took a pay cut to come to the Lone Star State last summer. Ovinton J’Anthony Mayo (18.0 PPG, career-high 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG, 46.7 FG% and 42.6 3FG%) is getting steady minutes for the first time in a couple of years, after being benched in Memphis. But it doesn’t seem as though he’s getting steady looks in the Maverick offense. O.J.’s usage rates have varied from 11.5% to 27.5% in the past two weeks, getting anywhere between 7 and 19 shots in the past month. On the whole, the Juice’s shooting accuracy has been fairly even just about everywhere on the floor except along the left wing, so it behooves his teammates to get him open and feed him a steadier diet of jumpers and layups.

You can probably tell what kind of night it’s going to be for the Mavs by how much pulp O.J. has in his jumpshot. In 22 victories, Mayo is hitting 54.0 FG% and a crazy 60.8% on three-pointers. Those numbers plummet to 40.5 FG% and 28.9 3FG% in 28 losses. Dallas sports a 3-19 record whenever Mayo shoots below 44 percent.

Ramping up Dirk’s role has come at the expense of some of the yung’uns on the Mavs roster. Villa Rica’s Own, rookie second-round draftee Jae Crowder started for brief periods in November and early December, then watched his minutes dwindle from about 20 per night, to around 13 by January. Crowder is struggling to find a consistent jumpshot, hitting 45% of his shots through November before shooting just 31% in December and January with Nowitzki back. It’s likely Carlisle expects to see more production on the defensive end from Crowder to earn more playing time. That goes double for the lanky Brandan Wright, recipient of just ten combined minutes in Dallas’ last two wins. Despite shooting 61.8 FG% and expanded range, Carlisle also needs Wright to finish stronger in the paint and not settle for jumpers and hookshots.

Half-Man/Half-Healthy was Carter’s derisive old moniker from his All-Star heyday, but at the ripe age of 36, he has missed only one game this year (a loss last week in Oklahoma City, due to illness), and just six in his past two seasons. While no longer capable of leaping tall defenders in a single bound, Carter has been amassing highlights lately by displaying reserves of explosiveness against unsuspecting defenses. The Hawks shouldn’t assume he’ll settle for long-range jumpers, and must watch for Carter and Mayo as cutters.

Rookie Air Force veteran Bernard James has held down the starting spot for the past couple of weeks, to unremarkable effect. On January 27, Sarge was inserted as a starter in place of Chris Kaman, who was promptly shelved with a concussion and has expressed vocal frustration with passing the protocol tests.

Despite James starting, the lion’s share of center minutes is really going to elder statesman Elton Brand. Brand gives the Hawks fits. His 10.8 RPG career average is highest against the Hawks than all but one other NBA team. In 2012 with the Sixers, he averaged 17.5 points, 13 boards, and three blocks while shooting almost 70% in two games against Atlanta. The Hawks did not have Al Horford at their disposal in either case, so it will be interesting if his presence will make a difference with Brand’s efficiency, or if they rely instead on Zaza Pachulia to keep Horf out of foul trouble.

Playing so thin up front (shallow may be a better term, as Eddy Curry is backing up these guys) makes it hard for the Mavericks to crash the offensive glass. Dallas gives up 46.0 total rebounds and 33.9 defensive rebounds per game (2nd most in NBA), although their pace and high proportion of overtime games inflates that ranking somewhat. Box out Brand and Shawn Marion consistently and there should be no problem for the Hawks securing Dallas’ missed shots.

At age 34, Marion is striving to prove he’s indispensable, if not to the Mavericks, then at least to a championship contender. The Matrix is averaging 18.8 points, 10 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks in his last five games, and is telling anyone who’ll listen he would be willing to hold out rather than report to a “(crappy) situation,” should Dallas pull the trigger on a trade deal before the deadline. He put up a season-high 26 points and added 11 boards in the blowout win against the defensively-challenged Warriors on Saturday.

As for the Hawks, the Dirkminican will be squaring up his preferred long-range jumpers against Nowitzki and the Mavs, but it may work to the Hawks’ advantage if Horford gets those shots up early in the game. Horford is shooting 51.0 FG% on long-twos (16-to-23 feet) in the first quarters of games, but just 34.8% thereafter. Horford needs to draw the Mavs’ bigs out of the paint early, make decisive passes from the high post in mid-game (his assists have been declining monthly, from 3.5 in November to 2.3 so far in February), then attack the rim late.

Fresh off of Greivis Vasquez making a Triple Double Factory out of Philips Arena, the Hawks’ guards will have their hands full with Darren Collison. The Man from Rancho Cucamonga has improved remarkably across the board as a shooter, ranking 4^th in the NBA in free throw percentage while hitting 50% of his two-pointers and 42% of his threes. He is still working on connecting with his teammates. He gambles more than in past years, bringing up his steals (1.6 SPG) but creating defensive issues more often than not. With Teague and Harris in the starting lineup against Collison, expect lots of burn marks on both ends.

Hopefully, the Hawks practiced their free throws, as the Mavs are second only to Toronto in opponent free throws attempted (25.9 per game) and made (19.6 per game).

Go Hawks!

~lw3