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Hawks - Nuggets


lethalweapon3

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blog-0204412001362439764.jpgThings to Do in Denver when You’re on a Losing Streak? The Atlanta Hawks could use a helpful guide following two road games that got away from them. One early, against an underwhelming Phoenix team, and one late, against a desperate Lakers squad, after a game-winning pass for a layup under the basket was bobbled then vanished into thin air.

Speaking of thin air, they’ve arrived at the Mile High City to face a Nuggets team that boasts the largest winning streak in the West (four in a row) and the second-best home record in the league (25-3). Meteorological conditions rarely bode well for any NBA team visiting the Pepsi Center on the second night of back-to-back games, and tonight will be no exception for the Hawks. Denver is fully healthy, has had two days off and looks to push the tempo with the second-highest pace in the league, a snow-melting 95.0 possessions per 48 minutes.

Coach George Karl’s crew is largely an athletic bunch that can get from one end of the floor to the next quick-fast-in-a-hurry. Unlike the Lakers in crunch time, when teammates dumped the ball to Kobe Bryant and got the heck out of the way, point guards Ty Lawson (career-high 16.5 PPG and 7.1 APG) and Andre Miller have a wealth of options in the post and on the wing to choose from. Danilo Gallinari (16.7 PPG) leads nine Nugget players scoring at least eight points per game (the Hawks have six).

Their shot choices are not always the best, but unlike some teams ((cough)) they recognize it enough to know when to crash the glass (31.3% offensive rebounding percentage, 2nd in NBA). They score the third most points in the league (105.5 PPG) and don’t need a ton of threes to get them (19.3 three-point attempts per 100 possessions, 19th in NBA). With players like Miller, and Andre Iguodala, they recognize their shortcomings from the perimeter (33.9 3FG%, 19th in NBA) and limit their reliance on those shots.

Lawson was on the tail end of the conga line of opposing guards giving Jeff Teague fits back in late November/early December. The Hawks prevailed 108-104 on December 5, but the only thing keeping Denver in that contest was Lawson shooting 12-for-16 (and 5-for-5 on threes) for 32 points, contrasted by Teague’s pedestrian 4-for-16, 9-point effort. Teague needs to show his team he can lead the offense and provide a complete game against the point guard selected one spot ahead of him in the 2009 NBA Draft.

With players like Kenneth Faried, McGee, and Iguodala unafraid of dunking on their own mama(s) if they had to (all three in the top ten of the league in total dunks), an NBA-leading 40.6 shots by the Nuggets are within five feet of the rim. The Hawks will need stout post defensive play to have a chance to win. Pesky activity from guys like Kyle Korver, Josh Smith and Ivan Johnson on the defensive side can help produce the turnovers they’ll need to score in transition. Hawk centers did an admirable job yesterday disrupting lobs to Dwight Howard, and they’ll need to continue that effort tonight.

On Sunday, Atlanta renewed a disconcerting trend of taking opponents’ Achilles’ heels and making them their own in games. The Suns had the NBA’s lowest opponent three-point percentage when they outshot the Hawks 45.5-34.8% on Friday. The Lakers had the league’s lowest free-throw percentage before outshooting Atlanta 72.2-53.3% from the charity stripe. Right ahead of the Lakers in the free throw futility standings are the Nuggets (69.0 FT%), despite taking the third-most attempts per game, and despite three players (Miller, Wilson Chandler, Gallinari) sinking over 80 percent. Will the Hawks take the under, again? Koufos (8th in the NBA with 3.3 personal fouls per game) and Faried will provide ample opportunities to find out. The Hawks counted on four free throws from Lou Williams in the final minute to pull out the win over the Nuggets at Philips Arena.

Chandler returned in mid-January after being sidelined to further rest his hip post-surgery, and serves as just the catalyst the Nuggets need for the back end of the season. His career-high 35 points (6-for-7 on threes) kept Denver neck-and-neck with OKC on Friday, with Lawson’s last-second jumper sealing the team’s 15th win in 19 contests since Chandler’s return. He also dropped 23 on the Lakers in a victory earlier in the week. While leading scorer Gallinari struggles once again to find consistency and efficiency (6.3 PPG in his last three games; 38.5% shooting in his last five), Chandler may take over the alpha-dog role on offense. Pairing Chandler, Iguodala, and/or Gallinari at the wing positions poses interesting matchup challenges for Coach Karl to exploit.

On defense, Iguodala will stick to stifling the Hawks perimeter shooters unless the Hawks’ bigs give him reason to help out inside. On offense, his passing efficiency hasn’t been what Sixer fans were accustomed to (21.1 assists per 100 possessions, lowest rate in last five seasons; 17.0 turnovers per-100, highest rate in six), but he seems to be coming around as the team stabilizes, averaging 8.0 assists and 3.0 turnovers per game in his last five appearances.

Whoever Denver sends out to challenge Al Horford (24.7 PPG in his last 9 games) outside the paint is likely to leave a gaping hole in the defense. Horford has turned the ball over more lately (5 turnovers in L.A.; 4.0 TO/G in his last four games), but will be a key cog in getting the ball inside to cutting players for quick layups.

Last night's finish may have been disappointing, but if we're in a similar situation tonight, it's only fair to give Zaza Pachulia a shot at vengeance. Blowing the open layup last season on a surprising drive as time expired saved the Nuggets' bacon in overtime almost one year ago.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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