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Hawks - Celtics


lethalweapon3

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blog-0939297001362781374.jpgIt’s always about confidence and composure anytime the Atlanta Hawks face off against the league’s marquee teams, especially with a national audience watching. Their poise will get tested once again as they seek their first win in Boston Garden since January 2010, and their first dismantling of any Celtics team featuring Kevin Garnett on the parquet floor of the Gahden since November 2009.

The last time the Celtics and Hawks met, on January 25 at the Highlight Factory, Atlanta melted away a 48-21 deficit from the first half, behind a career-high eight threebies from Kyle Korver, finally pulling away in double-overtime with a 123-111 win.

Unbeknownst to everyone at the time, the game marked the season’s curtain call for Rajon Rondo, who landed awkwardly on a layup attempt in regulation. He attempted to play in Boston’s next game, but wound up needing surgery for an ACL tear. His departure was supposed to be the swan song for the playoff hopes of a Celtics team that fell to 20-23 after the Atlanta loss.

But if anyone knows never to count Boston out even with Rondo out of the picture, it’s the Hawks, who fumbled a pivotal Game 2 at home to the Celts while he sat as punishment for a ref-bumping in Game 1. This time around, Boston went on to rattle off seven straight victories, including defeats of Miami, Denver, and both L.A. teams. Currently riding a four-game winning streak, they’ve gone 13-4 since Rondo departed, compared to 18-20 in games Rondo appeared in beforehand.

With Rondo and his routine double-digit assist tallies out of the equation, the Celtics are more likely than ever to call their own number on offense. They’ve failed to reach 20 assists in four of their last six contests and five of their last nine games, compared to just five times in Rondo’s 38 appearances.

Second on the current roster for assist percentage, behind Rondo, is forward Terrence Williams, who just got here, while tied for fourth are our old friends Jason Terry and Jordan Crawford, the latter just arriving here at the trade deadline in exchange for Leandro Barbosa. It’s safe to say that spells trouble in Beantown, but it can also signal that the guy ranked third on the roster for assist percentage, leading scorer Paul Pierce, serves as the “de facto” lead distributor, in a similar vein to Kobe Bryant after Steve Nash went down. Pierce carried the team with double-digit assist totals in five of the first seven games after losing Rondo, but is weaning himself off from that role recently (5.0 APG and 5.0 TO/G in his last three games).

Particularly without having the option of a Rondo-Bradley tandem, this version of the Celtics (95.8 opponent PPG, 8th lowest in NBA, but most since 2006-07) is slightly less stout defensively than their previous editions (89.3 PPG in 2011-12, 2nd lowest). Their 43.7 opponent FG% (6th lowest in NBA) is a modest decline from last season (41.9 FG% in 2011-12, lowest in NBA). And rather than give up buckets close-in, they’re more likely to foul opponents like the Hawks (70.5 FT%, 4th lowest in NBA) and make them earn points at the free throw line (24.0 opponent FT attempts per game, 5th most in NBA).

Brandon Bass is consistently the weakest link on the Celtics font line defense, and should be targeted at every opportunity by whichever of the Hawks’ bigs draws him. Technically, his defense against Josh Smith will consist of draining his mid-range jumpers and daring Smoove to try and keep up on the other end. Bass hits 43.5% of his shots from 10 feet out, but just 30.8% of them from 3-10 feet. Smith has shot 11-for-38 in the two contests versus Boston (1-for-8 from three-point range) and 6-for-15 from the free throw line, but still averaged 14.5 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, and 2.5 BPG in those games.

Pierce’s 42.2 FG% is his lowest in nine seasons, and shot 4-for-15 against defensive stalwart Indiana on Wednesday. It will be crucial for the Hawks to find players who will keep a hand up and play strong man defense against Pierce, shielding him when he moves off-the-ball and limiting his touches, similar to the way they effectively played Jrue Holiday (11 points on 3-for-12 shooting) of the Sixers on Wednesday.

Everyone should know, by now, Garnett’s cherished spot for spot-up mid-range jumpers on the floor, particularly on the left side of the basket. No field goal he attempts from this range (46.5 FG% on jumpers from 10 feet out) should go uncontested. With Zaza Pachulia likely a no-go, and Ivan Johnson perhaps needing to save his middle finger for later in the evening, the length of Anthony Tolliver and Johan Petro may prove useful at least to up the degree of difficulty for KG at this range.

Aside from Korver, Atlanta should not rely on three-point jumpshots to bail out of a jam. In the two games against Boston, Hawks not named Korver or Lou Williams shot a dismal 6-for-37, combined, behind the three-point line. With Avery Bradley and Courtney Lee switching to help with the hopefully resurgent Jeff Teague, Devin Harris and Shelvin Mack should be able to work around Crawford and Terry to get in the lane and create havoc with the extra pass.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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