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Hawks - Raptors


lethalweapon3

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blog-0071333001366150687.jpgBy tomorrow night, the Toronto Raptors will make like Wyclef and will be Gone Till November. Yes, the Dinos’ playoff prospects reached another sad extinction two weeks ago. But by no means should anyone assume this team is in tank mode.

Dwane Casey made some strides with his team despite the loss of Andrea Bargnani, especially defensively, yet he’s vying to keep his coaching gig for another season.

Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Amir Johnson are all under contract for 2013-14, and are playing to prove themselves worthy as a pencil-me-in starter six months from now… or otherwise boost their value to other teams, in case Toronto looks to ship them elsewhere. Lowry can be waived in mid-July with just $1 million guaranteed, but despite regressing this year, he’s not the player they’re likely to move.

If Jonas Valanciunas plays tonight, the Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month for March will be showcased to prove he belongs with the starters next season, too. Fellow lotto rookie Terrence Ross (probable tonight after missing a game with an ankle sprain) barely registered a blip this year under Casey’s short-leash with rookies, but hopes to end the season with a third-straight solid outing.

But, but, what about lottery positioning, you ask? Not a problem. Lowry’s summertime arrival came at the expense of a peculiar “inverse-lottery-protected” 2013 draft pick to Houston. Thanks to the James Harden trade, it’s Oklahoma City, of all people, sitting on that pick and cheering on the Hawks every step of the way tonight. There’s no 2013 second-round pick for Toronto either, thanks to that (big-letter-G) Gay trade they made a couple months ago.

In sum, there’s no resting on a lack of laurels with this bunch. The Raptors, who started the season off 4-19, are catching teams unawares while riding a three-game winning streak. They arrive for the Atlanta Hawks’ home finale as the sun sets on the regular season. They’ve also won five of their last six, including a home-and-home sweep of the Chicago Bulls and a Sunday home win, 93-87, over a possible Hawks’ playoff opponent, the Brooklyn Nets. This rebound has come after going 4-11 in March, and has them in position to move Philadelphia into the basement of the Atlantic Division.

Plus, Toronto’s now got the benefit of a primetime audience. As northcyde notes, tonight’s game has been picked up by the good folks up the street at TNT in the aftermath of the Marathon bombing and the subsequent Celtics-Pacers game cancellation. You can bet the crack team of color analysts will express, at every opportunity, just how thrilled they are to be here. No worries for you local yokels, though, as the smooth pipes of Bob Rathbun and deep-thought analyses from Dominique “That Was a Bad Shot/They Left Kyle Open Again” Wilkins will still be available to provide you aural relief tonight.

Valanciunas led the Raptors in scoring (19 points) against the Hawks in Toronto on March 27, outmuscling his way around the rim repeatedly. Yet it was not enough as Atlanta’s Big Three (69 total points from Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague) stormed ahead of his team in the second half on their way to a 107-88 finish. Still bothered by a rough neck injury sustained in Chicago, Valanciunas is listed as questionable for tonight’s action. His absence would put the onus on Aaron Gray (11 rebounds in Atlanta on January 30) to pick up the slack once again.

Gay (5.1 Defensive RPG and 1.8 steals per game since the trade to Toronto; both career-highs) has been helping on the defensive end as well. He tied a career high with 11 defensive rebounds against the Hawks in Toronto on March 27, and has had 8 thefts in his past two games.

But being so thin up front forces the Raptors to hack more than Anonymous when opposing bigs press the action. Amir Johnson is the top culprit with a league-leading 3.8 personal fouls per game, while Lowry (3.2 PF/G), Valanciunas (3.0 PF/G), and even Gay (3.0 PF/G since the trade from Memphis) aren’t terribly far behind. This makes it important for the Hawks to keep the Raps’ top players in foul trouble and to avoid leaving precious points on the table by making their free throws. To that end, perhaps we’ll see copious amounts of Ivan Johnson and Mike Scott tonight, along with plenty of drives to the lane by Teague and Devin Harris, who missed the last Raptors game. “Père Nouveau” Johan Petro, listed as questionable but a decent foul shooter, may get rewarded with a lot of looks tonight if he plays.

The Hawks, conversely to the Raptors, commit the NBA’s third-fewest fouls and cede the third-fewest free throw attempts per game. Keep an eye out for Casey, who will be working the officials hard after the unfortunate conclusion of his last visit to Atlanta, a 93-92 loss with bodies flying everywhere in the closing seconds, to see how his composure holds up if he thinks the whistles aren’t blowing his team’s way again.

DeRozan’s 36 points versus Brooklyn fell one short of his career high, and one can bet he’ll seek to put on another show in a rare appearance before an American audience. DeRozan draws lots of fouls and makes much of his hay at the free throw line (11th in NBA for FT attempts; 9-for-9 vs. Brooklyn). Plus his shooting is far more reliable on the road (46.4 FG%, versus 41.9% at home). Guessing Larry Drew will rest up DeShawn Stevenson for tomorrow’s game at Madison Square Garden, look for Dahntay Jones to stick to DeRozan early and often, forcing him to settle for tough jumpers.

Defensive rebounding will be crucial as opportunities will abound for the Hawks. None of Toronto’s top four offensive options (Gay, DeRozan, Lowry, Alan Anderson) have shot above 45 percent on the season, so expects lots of caroms up for grabs.

Let's see how well a lot of our impending free agents perform in their final regular season home game before the understandably distracted scrutiny of a national audience.

Go Hawks!

~lw3

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