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Hawks - Nuggets


lethalweapon3

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blog-0923919001383860033.jpgLifeless. Hanging by a thread. Buckling. Collapsing. Unresponsive.

With eyes wide and mouths agape, 19,000 Denver Nuggets fans looked on in collective horror, covering their children’s eyes, aghast at the sight unfolding before them on the Pepsi Center floor.

Are we witnessing what we think this is? Could this truly be… the end… of the Denver Nuggets’ annual playoff runs?

Fear not, Coloradans! Thankfully, all is not lost. Just like the fate that befell their daredevil mascot on opening night, the Nuggets should be able to recapture their wind and recover, eventually, from this early swoon at the kick-off of their season. But after sporting a league-best 38-3 record at home in 2012-2013, Denver comes into tonight’s affair with the Hawks (9 PM Eastern, SportSouth, Altitude Network) on the verge of matching last season’s home loss tally in just the first three Pepsi Center games. They still look like the Nuggets, but for the moment, they feel like an Avalanche.

Setbacks are bound to happen when your Executive of the Year general manager bails for the Great White North, and when your Coach of the Year and sixth-winningest coach of all time is now on network TV asking around for the number of the bus that ran him over. Moreover, when your top defensive player (acquired for next year’s unprotected first-rounder, Al Harrington and Arron Afflalo) bails for the team that beat you in last year’s postseason opening round, and your second- and third-leading scorers from 2012-2013 are nowhere near returning from injuries, the ride toward your 11th-straight postseason appearance is gonna be a little bumpy upon liftoff. Orlando's 2014 draft pick will be the less favorable between the Knicks' and the Nuggets' spots, and right now it's hard to sense which one will wind up lower.

Surprisingly, they’re one of just two NBA teams still winless going into tonight’s action, after three teams got off the schneid yesterday. Denver had the defending Western Conference champs on the ropes in their own house on Tuesday, scoring 52 points to go up 9 at the half, before the Spurs rattled off a 30-16 final quarter with the Nuggets looking gassed. That’s not how this thing is supposed to work in the Mile High City, and new Head Coach Brian Shaw knows it. It’s the opponents, not the Nuggs, who are supposed to look lethargic as the game wears on in the thin Colorado air.

"We just kind of lost our mind in the fourth quarter," Shaw said, and as JaVale McGee would tell you, a mind is a terrible thing to have. Denver has shot just 31.7 FG% in fourth quarters this season, averaging 21.0 PPG. Who will Shaw turn to for an Isaiah Thomas-style performance in the final stanza? There is one obvious candidate.

Fresh from lighting things up on occasion last season with the Bulls, Nate Robinson has been hot-and-cold offensively (0-for-5 at Sacramento, 8-for-17 with a team-leading 24 points vs. Portland, 2-for-9 vs. San Antonio), but he always perks up when it’s time to play the Hawks. His 51.9 FG% and 4.1 APGs against Atlanta are career-highs against any team, while his 14.6 career PPG are second-only to his mark against the Trail Blazers, the team closest to his hometown. However, can he domi-Nate alongside the team’s speedy star guard, Ty Lawson, or will Lawson have to watch in crunch time from the bench?

Whoever decides to take matters into their own hands will hopefully face a stiffer Hawk defense than what showed up in the opening minutes and the final half of Atlanta’s needless nailbiter in Sacramento. Jeff Teague is now showing assertiveness and heady play in every game, but he’s still struggling to sustain it all during games, especially coming out of breaks and stoppages of play. The Bibbys and Hinrichs and Devins of the world are no longer around to bail him out when opponents ratchet up the pressure. Atlanta is among the stingiest in the league in turnovers per game (14.3 TOs/game, 4th fewest), but is right at the top for “clutch” turnovers, according to NBA stats, in the final five minutes of close games (2.0 TOs/game, 1st in NBA).

So, yeah, no Rocky Mountain Oysters tonight for Dennis Schröder. The Hawks will have to go after nuggets tonight without any help from the Menace, who was suspended one game after requesting DeMarcus Cousins to turn his head and cough in Tuesday night’s win. That means Shelvin Mack will get dusted off the shelf for a spell or two of Teague.

Teague and Al Horford may be turning into basketball’s answer to Tinker and Evers. Teague remains the top passer in the NBA East (8.8 APG, tied with John Wall). As for Horford, the NBA’s new SportVu player-tracking toys reveal he’s the NBA’s top frontcourt player for what they call “secondary assists”: passes to another player earning the assist (2.0 secondary APG). The likely “Chance” for their passing is Kyle Korver, tied with Klay Thompson in PPG on catch-and-shoot field goals, and second behind Gary Neal in catch-and-shoot FG%. Korver can tie Dennis Scott (3rd longest in league history) in the consecutive-games ranking with another made three-pointer tonight. He would also move to just one game behind legendary Nugget point guard Michael Adams.

On the other end, Nuggets starting 2-guard Randy Foye is not terribly useful when his jumpshot’s not falling… and his jumpshot’s not falling (37.0 FG%). Evan Fournier (14.3 FG%) isn’t doing any better off the bench. Lawson could be much higher in the assist column (7.3 APG, 9th in NBA), but he sure could use somebody capable of making a shot so he won’t have to (37.5 FG%). As a team, Denver’s 40.2 FG% ranks them at the bottom of the NBA mountain (last year’s edition ranked 5th). They sorely miss Wilson Chandler’s efficiency, and even Danilo Gallinari's pretend-efficiency.

One-half of the famous “Shaw-Shaq Redemption,” and a longtime assistant and head coaching candidate, Shaw likely got the nod from Denver largely because of the credit he was given after the massive turnaround of the Pacers’ Roy Hibbert, just in time for Indiana’s impressive postseason run. He’s looked upon to work similar magic with silos full of mostly young, tall, talented, but flawed big men. Denver’s collection of bigs has the team situated behind only Dwight’s Rockets and Nikola’s Magic in rebounds per game.

No one is a bigger target for Shaw’s tutelage than McGee, a starter again after what seemed to be a full season in George Karl’s doghouse. But Shaw has been giving McGee a short leash (career-lows of 14.3 mins/game and 6.3 PPG). While McGee is throwing offenses off to start the game (1.7 BPG), so far he’s hacking wildly (3.3 fouls/game) and turning the ball over (2.0 TOs/game) far too much, while not finishing shots (40.9 FG%) or rebounding (9.2 rebounds per 36, a four-year low) enough.

The lion’s share of Shaw’s distribution at center has been going instead to The Human Verb, Timofey Mozgov (20.7 mins/game). Defensively, he really hasn’t been any better than McGee, and isn’t even crashing the boards much (5.8 rebounds per 36). What Mozzie has been doing right is making shots (60.0 FG%). When McGee is in, expect Horford to remain a peripheral passer, dropping jumpers like it’s hot and catching Denver’s frontline off-guard with passes to cutting forwards. After McGee sits, he’ll join Brand and Millsap to bang with Mozgov and Faried and keep the rebounding edge close.

Kenneth Faried got his starting power forward gig back from Atlanta native and free agent acquisition J.J. Hickson after getting some rest for his hamstring. The Manimal managed 15-and-8 against San Antonio and continues to impress with his rebounding (12.7 per 36, tied with Hickson), but what Shaw really wants is to redirect Faried’s boundless energy and transform him into a versatile defender. Same deal for Hickson along with Darrell Arthur (acquired for Kosta Koufos in the offseason) and Anthony Randolph, although this trio’s learning curves appear to be steeper. On offense, all three of those guys, each 6-foot-9 and up, are shooting below 40% so far.

The lanky Randolph remains questionable with a sprained ankle, so the Nuggets may go back to Jordan “Goin ‘Ham” Hamilton at small forward. Hamilton lived up to his Twitter handle by going 3-for-3 on triples against the Spurs.

This telegram just came in from Detroit… Laugh all you want at J-Smoove…STOP…but right now his 57.1 free throw shooting is dusting the percentages by not only Al Horford’s 55.0 percent…STOP…but also Paul Millsap’s 56.0 percent…FULL STOP. Still ranked only above the Sixers and Bobcats for free throw shooting, Teague and the Hawks’ star forwards can ill-afford leaving points on the table, especially if Denver heats up late in the game.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

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