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Hawks - Magic


lethalweapon3

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blog-0342246001384033363.jpgLast summer, the words “Nikola Vucevic” on my internet page would cause my Google Translate bar to pop-up. “This site is in Montenegrin,” it would advise me, “Would you like to convert to English?” Clicking the “English” button would transform the Swiss-Belgian-Montenegrin-American center’s name into, “That’s all you got for Dwight?”

The draft picks that baby-faced GM Rob Hennigan received, in the August 2012 mega-team haul for his passive-aggressive superstar Dwight Howard and the physically expiring Jason Richardson, were supposed to be the star attractions for the future of the Orlando Magic, tonight’s opponent at the Highlight Factory (7:30 PM Eastern, no local TV, 92.9 FM radio, Fox Sports Florida).

One of their acquisitions, rookie Mo Harkless, was supposed to be a project that could develop into a starter in a couple years. Arron Afflalo was supposed to be a glue player, perhaps the team’s leading scorer only by default. And the seven-footer Vucevic, fresh off of a 5.5 PPG season where he only managed 3 minutes in the Sixers’ playoff run, was a throw-in, barely distinguishable from Josh McRoberts or Christian Eyenga.

Dwight Howard was supposed to become the next in a long line a Laker greats at center. From the same deal, Andrew Bynum was going to be the piece that would turn the Sixers into a serious championship contender. And the Nuggets hoped 2012 playoff star Andre Iguodala would help them advance in the playoffs for years to come.

Not even 15 months later, Iguodala has moved on from Denver to a true contender. It’s Houston, not

L.A., that’s already feeling just a touch of buyer’s remorse about Howard. And Bynum, having never seen the floor in Philly, is in Cleveland and already mumbling about retirement. Meanwhile, Orlando's Vucevic ended 2012-2013 second in the NBA in rebounds (11.9 RPG) right behind Howard, shockingly joining him among the upper pantheon of productive, sizable centers that every team covets. Just 23 years old, he continues raising eyebrows after a 30-point, 21-rebound performance in Orlando’s trouncing of the Clippers this past Wednesday.

Just a stone’s throw from Disney World, the 31-year-old Hennigan is proving to his senior GM contemporaries, and to a once-skeptical Magic fanbase, that when you wish upon an NBA star, it makes no difference who you are. When his heart desired the doghoused power forward prospect Tobias Harris, he flipped Orlando fan-favorite JJ Redick (now with the Clippers) to Milwaukee. Harris came to him and immediately paid dividends (17.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), donning Howard’s old uni number and offering promise that the frontline of Orlando’s future is already here.

To outsiders, Hennigan was supposed to go through the growing pains of maturing into his job, and Head Coach Jacque Vaughn was supposed to be a babysitting seat-warmer until this team became truly ready for primetime. Vaughn and his roster have come into 2013-14 out to prove that the future is now. The former Hawk is doing his part to keep fans, and Hennigan, feeling upbeat and patient.

Before falling short in a close 91-89 contest with the Celtics last night, the Magic (3-3) thrilled its fans with a 3-0 homestand, including knock-offs of purported championship contenders Brooklyn and the Clippers in successive fashion. Just as surprising to Amway Center patrons, Orlando was selling their newfound defensive strategies during the 4-game string, with no opponents getting out of there with more than 91 points in their column. Only the Pacers’ opponents are shooting at a higher clip (39.1 FG%, down from 46.3% last year), and never before have the Magic held teams below 40 percent four games in a row.

Vaughn has coaxed his team into doing many of the things Mike Budenholzer’s Atlanta Hawks are not… closing out on shooters, channeling ballhandlers into undesirable shooting locations, and not gambling or helping where help isn’t needed. On that last point, Orlando is managing to hold foes to bad shooting nights despite having the league’s lowest opponent turnover rate (11.78 per 100 possessions). No Magic player had a defensive rating below Vucevic’s 105 (points per 100 possessions) last season, but so far the lowest is E’Twaun Moore’s 101, a value only Al Horford (100) surpasses on the Hawks.

Atlanta is conversely giving up 47.4 FG% to opponents, along with the second most three-point baskets in the league, a whopping 10.2 per game. Watch for Jameer Nelson to go bombs-away, as 52.6% of his shots are three-point attempts, although he’s only making 30% of them. Harkless and Moore (each with 54.5 3-Point FG%) are also licking their lips at the prospect of a big night from the Hawks’ Three-Point Island.

Orlando is allowing half as many treys as Atlanta, as the 5.0 per-game (2nd fewest in NBA) sits just ahead of the team they lost to last night, the Celtics. That development might be chilling to Kyle Korver (12th in the NBA for FG%) as he climbs up the NBA history charts with his 78-game three-point streak. Korver (53.3% of his FGAs), Pero Antić, Cartier Martin, and DeMarre Carroll are each taking half of their shots beyond the perimeter although only Korver is making them with any decent frequency.

Vaughn isn’t simply relying on the likes of veterans Nelson and free agent acquisition Jason Maxiell to become defensive world-beaters. He’s got lottery prize Victor Oladipo, arguably the top defensive player coming out of college, to lead the charge. He and Vucevic are second to reserve Kyle O’Quinn on the Magic with a 93.6 defensive rating. Look for Oladipo to use his quickness and agility to try and cover Korver for much of the game. Unpolished offensively, Oladipo can be relied on to get his points off of breakaway steals and fly-in putbacks.

If you can find a strategic misstep from Hennigan so far, by default, it may have been the dealing of Ryan Anderson to New Orleans in summer 2012. Anderson, then the league’s Most Improved Player and top three-point maker, signed an offer sheet with the Hornets, and Orlando was on the verge of losing him for nothing. Perhaps in a rush, he couldn’t salvage much more from New Orleans than the player he got in a sign-and-trade, Gustavo Ayón. Who knows if the subsequent Harris deal would have ever come to pass without Ayón at Hennigan’s disposal?

Under Vaughn, Ayón was perpetually frustrated by a drop in playing time from his Hornets rookie season, and was shipped to the Bucks last February as part of the Harris-Redick deal. Now with the Hawks, he has recovered from his preseason rotator cuff injury sufficiently to be activated, and may see his first action as a reserve against his former team.

The one chink in O-Town’s defensive armor right now is in rebounding. They are 5th in defensive rebounding rate, but with Harris and Big Baby Davis sidelined, (not to mention the unfortunate injury to ex-Hawk Solomon Jones) Vucevic isn’t getting a lot of help upfront. Orlando is giving up 14.3 O-Rebs per game, second most in the league, and the third most total rebounds. Kicking off the season against Roy Hibbert (16 boards), Kevin Love (17, in OT), Anthony Davis (17), and the duo of Blake Griffin (13) and DeAndre Jordan (19) will do that to you. When opponents aren’t nailing shots, there are a lot of caroms up for grabs.

Vucevic will again have his hands full with the two-headed hydra of Al Horford (3rd in RPG behind Vucevic and Greg Monroe in the East; 3rd in NBA for defensive rebounding percentage, 4th in blocks per game among active NBA players) and Paul Millsap (20.6 PPG; 9th in NBA for FG%). He’ll need a lot of help from Maxiell to contain Millsap, and his backups to keep Elton Brand and possibly Ayón at bay.

Harris is ailing with a severe sprained ankle and is unlikely to appear for the Magic for at least another week. Andrew Nicholson (11 rebounds last night vs. Boston) and O’Quinn will do all they can to help Nik keep the Hawks off the glass. Orlando is dependent on Afflalo (5.3 defensive RPG) and Oladipo (4.2) to help their bigs out, a tall order if they’re chasing the Hawks’ perimeter shooters around screens all night.

With Orlando on the second night of a back-to-back and committed to man defense so rigidly, Jeff Teague must create havoc against Nelson (and Dennis Schröder go nuts against Moore and/or Ronnie Price), if the Hawks plan on reaching triple digits for the sixth-straight game. Atlanta hasn’t had a team meet-or-exceed 100 points for this many games to start the NBA season since small-m-magician Bob Weiss coached Dominique Wilkins, Doc Rivers, rookie Rumeal Robinson and the 1990-1991 Hawks (eight straight games of 100+ scoring, going 4-4, 111.9 PPG, 113.1 opponent PPG).

Let’s Go Silverbacks! AND... Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

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