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Hawks - Knicks


lethalweapon3

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blog-0980153001384386311.jpgAin’t it great to have an owner who doesn’t have a yap writing checks his team can’t cash… anymore?

Mike Woodson and his New York Knicks crawl into the Highlight Factory (8 PM Eastern, ESPN, MSG Network), and Woody’s hoping the Eastern Promises made by the guy whose checks he cashes, James “Doh!”-lan, don’t reverberate too loudly in the Atlanta Hawks’ locker room.

Fortunately for Woody, these Hawks don’t appear to be a bunch that gets their gander up over any particular slight. But in Transplant, USA, Dolan’s Decree of a guaranteed victory places undue pressure on each of tonight’s opponents.

For the reforming Hawks, it’ll be their first test at home against a culturally relevant NBA team. Loads of empty vessels, clad in blue and orange, will be trying to make the most noise as they shoehorn themselves into oft-empty Philips Arena seats. The Hawks will try to execute a steady stream of plays that stem the Knicks’ occasional runs and drum out noise from the clown cars honking in the stands.

The Knicks have had a seesaw 2-4 start and are trying to psychologically right their ship with a crucial cast member gone AWOL. Starting center Tyson Chandler went down last week after a collision with Charlotte’s Kemba Walker, and will be out at least another 3 weeks to repair a fractured fibula.

With depth upfront already a problem, the Knicks couldn’t keep up with the Bobcats and lost their second straight at Madison Square Garden, one game after a 9-point loss to the T’Wolves that featured Dolan reportedly (as per Frank Isola, mind you) berating GM Steve Mills. They seemed to regain their balance with a victory in Charlotte on Friday, but the bottom dropped out back home against Mike Budenholzer’s former employer.

The Spurs’ 31-point win at the Garden laid bare many of the Knicks’ woes. Pointless point guard play from Raymond Felton, Beno Udrih, and Pablo Prigioni. Wings that are simply winging it on offense, like J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. Bigs that are big turnstiles at the rim, like Andrea Bargnani and Cole Aldrich. Stars that are far from super anymore, like Amar’e Stoudemire and Metta World Peace (Kenyon Martin was DNP-CD).

All of that is stretching Carmelo Anthony’s talents thin, his 41.3 FG% presently the lowest by far among the league’s Top 10 scorers. Anthony’s 40.4 minutes per game are also the highest in the league. He is helping defensively with career-highs of 9.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game, but if Melo’s your defensive stalwart, you’re in trouble. Melo fans in the Big Apple (and the Big Peach) are already sounding a lot like Clevelanders with his eye on 2014 free agency, rightfully worried that this could already be his last stand.

Hardly any of these issues should be laid at the feet of Dolan's new GM, Mills, who just came back into the Knicks fold in September after Bargnani was already in tow. Aside from the usual questionable substitution and defensive switching maneuvers, very little should be blamed on Woody, who essentially inherited the core of this roster and doesn't seem too involved in this summer's personnel moves. But Dolan wants his title. Right now. And Mills and Woodson are pressed to shake things up.

Against an Atlanta team that has been a sieve at the perimeter (40.2% for Hawk opponents on above-the-break threes, 2nd-highest in NBA), Woodson will need a big day from J.R. Smith. The Tahiry Booty Snatcher has had huge nights against Woodson himself, back when the coach roamed the sideline for Atlanta, once going 10-for-17 from three-point range for 41 points during his Nuggets years.

Over his career, he’s shot 47.3% on field goals against the Hawks, but a mere 55.3% (lowest against any team, easily) when he draws trips to the free throw line. After begging all off-season, Smith is being rewarded by Woodson with a return to the starting SG gig. This, despite his 1-for-9 clunker against the Spurs in a season debut that was delayed 5 games for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policies.

Smith is getting the nod (just his 8th start in the last 5 seasons and 25th in the last 7) largely because the Knicks aren’t getting sufficient defensive impact from Shumpert (with a pedestrian 106 defensive rating) to justify his shaky offense, nor sufficient usage from pesky defender Prigioni (62.5 FG%, but less than 3 shots per game) to keep the offense balanced. Shumpert is looking over his shoulder today, with the rumors leaking of his pending trade to Denver for Kenneth Faried (not sure how that helps the Knicks).

Volume shooting won’t be a problem for Smith, and it seems Woodson is hoping his introduction to the starting lineup will provide better floor balance at the outset of games, giving Anthony more room to roam. You will only see his kid brother Chris Smith on the floor if it is another one of those Bad ESPN Nights for Atlanta. Chris will head to the D-League when league play kicks off in a week or so.

Not everybody’s loving Raymond right now. Felton has been rendered pretty futile when he can’t get to the rim (45.2 FG% within 5 feet, 32.7 FG% beyond 5 feet). Jeff Teague could use help from forwards to minimize Felton’s ability to drive and finish, forcing Felton to pass to less capable playmakers or make him heave unreliable shots.

With no Chandler in the mix, the Knicks are only ahead of the Larry Sanders-less Bucks in total rebounding percentage. Bargnani will start at center, but look for Woody to “switch” quickly to Martin in the middle if Al Horford (team-leading 18.9 PPG and 9.7 RPG) eats him up from the interior.

Both Martin and Bargs will be instructed to come out and meet Horford at the elbow before he gets his mid-range splashes, and when they do, Al’s passing will come in handy (3.3 APG, second on the team). Horford makes 3.4 mid-range shots per game (at 47.1 FG%), 4th in the league behind Carmelo Anthony (3.5 per game, 36.2 FG%).

The Hawks are 3rd in the NBA for FG% within 5 feet of the bucket (61.9%). Melo will have his work cut out for him trying to keep Paul Millsap (68.6 FG% within 5 feet) away from the rim while staying out of foul trouble. The best Bargs, Melo, and Amar’e can do tonight is try to match Horford and Millsap point-for-point.

The Knicks are next-to-last in per-game free throws, a spot that shouldn’t change much since the Hawks commit the third-fewest personal fouls. Atlanta will need to convert at the line (66.7 FT% at home, 27th in NBA) and exploit a probable advantage in made freebies.

New York ranks 3rd in the NBA for points off turnovers (21.0 per 100 possessions). But the Hawks have the league’s lowest turnover percentage, also giving up the fewest points from turnovers (13.7 per 100 possessions). Something’s gotta give. Transition defense will be key.

It’s Metta World Peace’s 34th birthday! Queensbridge’s Finest will spend a lot of his celebratory time helping chase after Kyle Korver and doubling-up on Paul Millsap. Anything that DeMarre Carroll and/or Cartier Martin can do on offense to steal his attention away will help the Hawks’ effectiveness on offense.

A sound, focused victory tonight not only moves the Hawks back into first in the Southeast with Miami, and builds up the team’s national profile before a big TV audience, it would also keep the Knick fans here and back home unhinged, Dolan stuffing his gaping maw with crow, and Spike bitter on his Twitter.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

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