Are the world champion Miami HEAT hearing talon steps?

The Atlanta Hawks have a chance to conquer another Rated-R superstar and slide into the top spot of the Southeast Division with a victory tonight at American Airlines Arena (7:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth, NBATV, SUN Network).

Despite a handful of early upset losses, nobody should be disillusioned into believing Miami has regressed in any way. Belying any anxieties down in South Beach that Eastern teams are closing the gap, the HEAT’s 7-3 record includes losses involving a rookie playing out of his mind, a Chris Bosh free throw make that he needed to miss, and a buzzer-beating corner three at the hands of Jeff Green. They’ve run off three in a row and six of their last seven despite sitting Dwyane Wade on back-to-back nights, while LeBron James has scored 30+ in each of his last three games.

The Hawks haven’t been too shabby, either. None of their last four defeats have been by a deficit of 10 or more points. By comparison, 20 of their 38 regular-season losses last season were by those large margins. The Hawks tightened up their defensive effort a smidgen (a season-best 37.8 opponent FG%), enough to fluster the New York Knicks in Manhattan and prevail on back-to-back nights. After giving up 100+ points in four of their first five contests, they’ve kept opponents below 100 in four of the last five.

After beating Philadelphia last Friday and New York on Saturday, the Hawks have four more back-to-backs to play before the month of November concludes. This one follows tonight’s game with the return of "He Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned" to Philips Arena tomorrow. Atlanta swept just five of their 22 back-to-back game pairs last season.

Perimeter defense has been a problem for the Hawks all season, but they do have a little company. Atlanta has given up 9.1 threes per game (4^th in NBA; 37.8 opponent 3FG%), but Miami is right there with them (9.0 opponent 3-pointers per game, 5^th in NBA, at 36.9% shooting).

Head-to-head, the HEAT have the advantage of a greater array of reliable shooters (43.8 3FG%, 2^nd in NBA), underscoring the league’s best offensive efficiency (113.5 points per 100 possessions). HEAT Head Coach Erik Spoelstra has seven players at his disposal routinely shooting above 35% on threes (James, Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, Rashard Lewis, Chris Bosh, Norris Cole, and the incomparable Ray Allen). The Hawks have just three such players, and one is Paul Millsap, the others being Kyle Korver and Cartier Martin. Miami will likely rely on Shane Battier to be tonight’s designated streak stopper for Korver (68.8 eFG%, 3^rd in NBA), who ranks just ahead of James (66.8 eFG%) among NBA starters for effective field goal percentage.

Despite the media propensity to highlight Miami’s high-profile plays at the rim, the HEAT take the league’s fewest shots per game within 10 feet (33.2 FGA) and within 15 feet (38.1 FGA) of the rim. They need Bosh not only to press the issue on the offensive glass, but to play a more active role in defending the interior, lest they have to rely on offensively inept minutes from Udonis Haslem. HEAT opponents are shooting 57.2 FG% within ten feet of the rim (4^th worst in NBA).

It remains to be seen what defensive impact Carroll can have on James. Against Millsap and Carroll’s Utah Jazz last season, LeBron had 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists in a 16-point home win in December, along with 32 points, 4 boards and 6 assists in a HEAT loss at Salt Lake City. Marvin Williams, not Carroll, was the starting small forward at that time.

Whoever guards James must make him work laterally (driving to his left, preferably) to get position on the interior, and they’ll need help from roving wings to disrupt passes when James kicks out to those dangerous long-range shooters. James’ 16.1 points created via assists per game is by far the highest among non-guards in the league.

With Millsap out of action tonight to rest a sore elbow, Mike Budenholzer will give the Gustavo Ayón Experiment another go. If Al Horford’s starting at the four, he will have to avoid foul trouble defending James and/or Bosh for long stretches. Mike Scott did yeoman’s work trying to hold off Carmelo Anthony in the Hawks’ last game, but he’ll be a more intriguing matchup against Beasley or Lewis.

Miami will be striving to dial up the pressure on Atlanta guards, having induced a season-low eight turnovers in their last game at Charlotte just one day after creating a season-high 24 turnovers (off 19 steals) in a home win against Dallas. Chalmers has hacked his way into trouble with the league office, but will be returning after a one-game suspension to pair up with Wade.

It wouldn’t be wise for the Hawks to expect another stellar passing game from Shelvin Mack (12 assists, one turnover versus the Knicks). Jeff Teague (one assist versus NYK) will have to avoid carelessness with the ball and look to Horford and Korver to make the extra passes... in some cases, back to him to finish plays. The Hawks score 11.1 PPG on Teague drives, most of any player in the East.

When Mack is in the game, Miami will have to respect his pull-up jumpshot. According to the SportVu player-tracking data, Mack’s 64.3 FG% is tops among NBA players taking the pull-up more than twice per game.

Tops among NBA players in catch-and-shoot FG% (minimum 4.0 such attempts per game)? If you guessed Kyle Korver (54.0 FG%; 9.5 catch-and-shoot PPG is 2^nd in NBA), you’re close as he ranks 4^th. Right now, the head of the pack for catch-and-shoot accuracy is Al Horford (57.4 FG%). Horford should be eager to take Bosh off the dribble from the baselines and elbows to get to the rim, but must improve his Flintstones-car footwork to avoid unnecessary turnovers from traveling calls.

Go Hawks!

~lw3