TheNorthCydeRises

This is his tact for everything. He's the ultimate "spin doctor" on this board. Facts are facts. Injuries killed our season, point blank. One of the things that should see JJ play less time next year, is the fact that this team may be able to survive stretches of games without JJ on the floor. That wasn't the case for most of this season. I remember as late as the Phoenix game back in February, that this team totally collasped without JJ in the game. Just take a look at the game log for the last 3 minutes of the 2nd quarter of that game. Phoenix up 51 - 50 with 2:46 to go. After the mandatory break, Woody figures that he can rest JJ for the final 3 minutes of the quarter and go into halftime in good shape, seeing that we'd came back from 14 down at the start of the 2nd quarter, to get us back in the game. Smoove has 3 fouls, so he's not in the game. Hawks lineup at the 2:46 mark G - Speedy G - AJ F - Chill F - Marvin F - Solomon You figure that this group could at least score 4 - 6 points to close out the quarter. And this isn't a bad defensive group to have on the floor either. It's actually a pretty decent one, considering that Phoenix likes playing small. Phoenix lineup G - Nash G - Bell G/F - J. Jones ( or JJ3 as Phoenix fans affectionally call him ) F - Marion F/C - Amare LOL . . so what happens? - Amare makes 1 FT - Speedy misses a 18 foot jumper - Amare makes 12 foot jumper - AJ misses a 17 foot jumper - Marion gets a dunk from a Nash assist - Chill travels - Marion gets ANOTHER dunk from a Nash assist (( At this point, Woody is totally disgusted because he's seen a 1 point game immeadiately turn into an 8 point game . . in less than 90 seconds . . with JJ on the bench. So he angrily points at JJ and send him to the scorer's table )) - Marvin misses a 20 foot jumper - Nash makes a driving lay-up FINALLY, we draw a foul to stop the clock, and get JJ back in the game with 23 seconds to go in the half. JJ comes in the game and finds Marvin . . who hits an open jumper and was fouled on the play. He converts the 3-point play to cut the lead to 7 to go to the half. JJ played 45 minutes that night. And the reason he plays so many minutes, is because this team acted like a chicken with its head cut off, everytime he came out of the game for most of the year. His injury may have been a blessing in disguise for next season. I say that because now, a guy like Josh Smith should be able to shoulder the load offensively for 3 - 5 minute stretches in games, and let JJ rest. It's not a coincidence that these guys lead the league in minutes: 1) Iverson ( 42.7 mpg ) 2) JJ ( 41.4 ) 3) Lebron ( 41.2 ) 4) Kobe ( 40.8 ) 5) Ray Allen ( 40.4 ) 6) Iggy ( 40.3 ) 7) Arenas ( 39.8 ) All of those teams have a tendency of totally collasping when these players are out of the game, even for short stretches. And these teams have very few games in which they're getting totally blown out, or are comfortably ahead. That's why they have to play a lot.

It gives credence to the total probability issue getting a top 3 pick overall, and the concrete evidence about the chances that each pick has. But I'll quickly compare the Draft to what you see on TV with Texas Hold-Em. Like the draft, Texas Hold-em has three elements to it, that determines the winner. And if the draft were shown live, the process would become as clear as ever. Everybody in the NBA draft knows what percentage chance they have to get that first pick. That is set in stone and is undeniable. In Texas Hold-Em, you have to wait for the flop to happen, in order to see your chances to win the hand. So the flop happens, and the percentages of the person with the best hand comes into play. But also like Texas Hold-Em, your percentages to win the hand change, as soon as that 2nd card ( the Turn ) drops. In Poker, that could be a dramatic shift. In the draft, the fall of ping-pong balls could either win you that 2nd draft position, or leave you waiting on the 3rd. Then the river card decides the winner of the hand in Texas hold-em. With the draft, the odds of you obtaining a top 3 pick before the draft started, are irrelevant, by the time the 1st and 2nd selections are decided. So if you have a 38% of obtaining a top 3 pick, that all goes out the window, if you miss on picks 1 and 2. The only thing that matters at that point, are your percentage chance of getting that 3rd position. So to me, it's simple. - The 37% overall chance of obtaining a top 3 pick doesn't matter to me, when that 1st selection is chosen, because we already know our chances to get that 1st pick are. Just under 12% for the 4th worst team. - And if we miss out on the 1st and 2nd position, the overall chance of obtaining a top 3 pick doesn't matter to me then either, because the only thing that matters when position 3 is chosen, are your ACTUAL chances to get that pick. That 37% chance of getting a top 3 pick doesn't mean jack then. - Therefore, I view getting the #2 position in the same light. And that's why I don't stress over a 3% shift in odds per position, because I view the draft lottery as 3 different selection processes . . which it is. And it's interesting to see just how unpredictable this lottery has been in the past 11 years. The 3rd worst team has obtained the top pick more than any other team. And Lunar has correctly pointed out that the team that finished 4th worst, has dropped in the draft 8 out of 11 times since 1995. That means that although the odds are heavily stacked against teams #5 - #14 getting a top 3 pick, one of those teams have managed to do that over 70% of the time. The odds tell you one thing. The actual lottery events tell you another. Because of it's unpredictibility, I don't even bother stressing about the lottery. But that's just me.

I had a reply typed, but I won't argue with you BDawg. We just see things totally different on this subject. When it's a situation in which you cannot control the varibles that will enable us to get the picks that we need, I can't strees over 3% percentage point decreases and increases. Even when we lose, we have to root for others to win ( who are trying to lose like we may be doing ), in order to increase our odds. At some point, it all becomes futile. The history of the league shows that even when a team gets that franchise player, they have to do so many things after that, in order to achieve their goal as a championship caliber team. So I'm sorry. If our chances for Oden stay where they're currently are at less than 12% for that 1st pick . . and our chances for Durant are at best less than 20% for that 2nd pick, I can't get hyped up about that. I just hope that Indiana doesn't get extremely lucky in this draft, gets a top 3 pick, and knock us down to 4th. That's the worst case scenario right there.

Quote: I am not so sure that Carter is going to leave NJ or that NJ is planning on blowing up their team. I thought it could potentially happen a month or two ago, but some of the recent comments by the NJ ownership has made me rethink it. They "sound" like they really want to keep Carter and make a push with the current lineup. We will see what happens. I think they would be best to trade away Kidd and Carter and rebuild. You're right. But if that team bombs in the playoffs against a young Chicago team, their position on Carter and Kidd may change. Their first option may be to trade superstar for superstar. Carter or Kidd + Jason Collins . . for KG ( Garnett's contract is ridiculous ). That would be the first thing I would look at. That would at least keep 2 superstars in Jersey, while giving the T-Wolves a star to replace KG with. But if they can't go talent for talent, then getting the contracts off the books may be the route to go. If so, we're the team that can make it happen for them.

Quote: Quote: Name the last 4th worst team to win a title within 3 years time. Miami was the 4th worst team in the 2002-2003 season. They won the Championship in the 2005-2006 season. LOL @ vet. Technically, that is true. Nothing like adding one of the top 5 centers of all time to your team though. And that brings me to something that I've mentioned on some other boards. Keep an eye on New Jersey. Barring some unforseen disaster, they should make the playoffs. But the future of the stars on that team aren't set in stone at all. If they go one-and-done in the postseason, Vince Carter may forego that player option, and become a UFA, mainly because Jersey isn't talking about giving him an extension. If that happened, Mr. Jordan and Charlotte would probably break their necks trying to get him ( which may explain why the Hornets aren't even considering tanking, and playing some of their best ball all year ). That leaves Jason Kidd. If Carter leaves, then you're probably talking about the Nets also getting Kidd off of their books, and rebuilding the team around Marcus Williams, Kristic and R-Jeff. People on the board talk about how our contracts are a waste ( especially with the PGs ), but if the Hawks really wanted to make a push to get to playoff level immeadiately, without worrying about salary at this point, they could conceivably make a play at Jason Kidd sometime before the trade deadline next season. Trading Lue, AJ, LO, and Marvin to Jersey could get that done . . IF and only IF . . Jersey wanted to get Kidd off the books, and retain a decent young player in the process. It'll give Jersey expiring contracts to get off the books in the Summer of 2008. And it would give them a young player like Marvin, in which they could evaulate and make a decision on either immeadiately, or in the near future. And that would give Jay-Z and the other Nets owners a whole lot of cap room to work with, when the summer of 2008 came around. It'll be much like the deal we made with Detroit, when we traded Rasheed to the Pistons, and acquired all of those expiring contracts. On our end, a move like that wouldn't hurt our cap number in 2008, but it definitely would in 2009, when extensions for Smoove and possibly Childress would kick in. The questions are these, could this team in 07 - 08 make the playoffs? PG - Kidd G - JJ F - Chill F - Smoove F/C - ZaZa with Speedy, Shelden, Salim, Solomon, and Indy pick as the bench? If it could, then it may be in our best interest to roll with that group in 08 - 09, and take a little hit in the salary aspect, just to make sure that we'd have a legit playoff team here and generate some interest back with this franchise. It's unpredictable things like that . . things that we can't see now, but might happen in the future, that could totally change things around here. When good players with bad contracts get traded, it's not always a bad thing for the team acquiring the good player. Especially if the players fills a need and can immeadiately help you. That's usually how teams improve themselves, when they don't have time to wait 2 - 3 years for draft picks to develop. But the Hawks would have to be willing to spend a little money again in order for this to happen. LOL . . so don't hold your breath.

Quote: You can come up with combined numbers to get our total chance of landing a top 3 (or top 2) pick based on the total number of possible outcomes and the relative likelihood of each outcome. However, in the actual drawing - you are right that it will be concrete numbers. If we finish forth, for example, if the first place team wins the first pick our odds of landing the second pick go from 11.9% to 15.9% and if the second place team wins the second pick our odds of landing the third pick jump to 21.6%. If we finish forth and the 7th place teams wins the first pick our odds increase only to 12.4% for the second pick and if the 5th place team wins that our odds of landing the third pick are only 13.7%. I think the most meaningful way to look at things right now are using the composite numbers that weight the outcomes (i.e., the first scenario above is much more likely than the second scenario). And that's all my position has been on this AHF. It's just that people act like it's a huge difference between having a 14% chance, and a 20% chance. It is an increase, but good Lord, it's so slight that it's still a major crapshoot just to land where you want to be. And when you look at those percentages in reverse ( 80% - 86% against obtaining the pick ), it shows you just how this thing is stacked against us. And that's why I can't stress out over what games the Hawks win or not. Wins and losses aren't my main concern now. But I do want to see certain players play hard, and see if they can elevate their games somewhat. It wouldn't hurt me one bit to see Marvin and Shelden have good games and lead the Hawks to victory tonight. But I'm not going to stress if they lose either.

Quote: Quote: Quote: The odds of missing a contensted 3 pointer are over 70%. However, if you could improve your odds of hitting that shot by 7% you would do it everytime. Does this mean if Smoove increased his 3 point shooting from 27% to 34% that I want him taking the shot more?? Do you really think that? and if he increased his 3 point shooting from 27% to 34% do you think I want him working on just his 3 point shooting? That's what the tankers argument is right now. The tankers says "Smoove go out there and ONLY work on your 3 point shooting. We have to improve your lowly shooting percentage as much as possible" The problem is that maybe it would be better for Smoove to focus on something else. I can deal with a 27% 3 pt shooting as long as other areas of his game improve and he doesn't shoot the 3 pt shot so much. To say that Smoove needs to only focus on shooting 3 pters is really saying that we don't have any other player who can hit three pointers. What the antitankers are saying is don't ruin Smoove's game by having him shoot the three pointer only because we believe that we don't have to have Smoove's 3 pt shooting to win games. SO even if Smoove got his 3 pt shooting up to 34%... That's cool, but at what price? The shot is still going to miss more than it hits. Do you realize that someone shooting 34% from 3pt range is an effective field goal percentage of 51%? Not that bad. I agree we should be doing more than simply tanking but that is the team's biggest potential payoff (by far) so that would be my top priority at this point in the season. Developing young guys like Shelden, Solomon, Salim, etc. should also be a focus during this period. Playing T.Lue 50+ minutes should not happen (unless it is the only way to lose). Salim shoots 36% from 3 now. Guys that shoot 35% and under from 3-point range, are usually very streaky shooters. They'll hit 3 - 5 one game, and go 0 - 5 the next. That's exactly what Salim does. And that's exactly how Smoove's shooting from 3 goes. When you talk about your guys that are around 40% and over, they're at that mark a lot more consistently. You don't see too many horrible shooting games from the good 3 point shooters. What Diesel is trying to illustrate, is that if the percentages are bad to start with, slightly increasing those percentages really doesn't help much. That's why stressing out over 3% swings in our draft odds, really isn't worth stressing over at all. But you guys go ahead and do what you do. Just don't be devestated once draft night comes and things don't fall our way, because it's a very good possiblity that it won't. You have the right mindset. Don't put all of your hopes and dreams about the Hawks, into the lottery. A continued commitment to developing our core guys, along with "good" acquisitions in the future, will see this team reach playoff level very soon . . . if everybody on the team doesn't get hurt at the same time.

Quote: That is that we do land the #3 pick. We get some guy... Honestly, there are not too many difference makers after Oden, Durant... But we take some guy with "potential" or something like that. Do you realize that with a guy who is not a difference maker and with this team of ours who the tankers have no faith in, that we have set ourselves up to lose the pick next year period. That means next year, if the draft is MORE STACKED than this year... then we have NO PICK... But not to worry. The tankers can always blame the GM for picking somebody who was "not the right pick"... They can always point to the rookie of the year and say " it's ___________'s fault that we didn't get him".. More than likely the GM... LOL . . EXACTLY !! Landing #3 might be the worst case scenario for us. I mean, even some of you guys pointed that our about the Marvin selection. If we had landed at #3, we'd almost surely take Paul or Deron, because it's a good possibility that Marvin was definitely going at #2 no matter what. Dropping one spot actually may have done us more harm, than dropping 2 spots. This year, we either have to get that top spot, or have a pretty good idea who to trade for, if we get the #2 spot. At #3, there's no telling who BK would take. If you take Noah or Horford, who goes to the bench . . Marvin? And if that's the case, how does he continue to develop at the rate that we need him to develop? LOL . . and that pushes Shelden even further down the line. Maybe Hibbert declares, and he takes him. If you believe anybody about Hibbert, believe the patriarch of G-Town basketballm, John Thompson, Jr, about Hibbert. I listened to that entire G-Town vs Ohio St game over the radio. When comparing Oden and Hibbert, he made the comment that both should probably stay in school to develop the part of their games that are the weakest. In Hibbert's case, it was his defense and rebounding. That's the last thing this team needs . . another big man who is weak on the defensive end, and isn't a "go-getta" on the boards. Maybe BK, with all of the criticism about a PG, goes to the extreme, and takes either Conley or Law at #3. LOL . . I can see this board now if that happened. And we're not even going to mention the MOP of the Final Four, Corey Brewer. I can see it now. Brewer being a BEAST at the Portsmith pre-draft camp, and elevating his stats to top 5. BK will try to resist his talent and potential, but can't. So he selects him at #3, selling us that he might be the next Kobe. For that reason, it's a quest to get one of the top 2 selections, not one of the top 3 selections. If we get slotted at #3, there's no telling what could happen. So I guess the tank crowd need to plug in the numbers, and tell us what THEIR probability is of us obtaining one of the top 2 picks.

Quote: The thread was better when everybody ignored Northcyde's obvious trolling. While I won't get into all the top 3 hoopla since it's obvious this is a 2 man draft, it should be obvious to everybody that if a few more meaningless losses can increase our odds by 6-7% of getting one of the 2 best prospects to ever come into the NBA, then you hope you lose those games. 6-7% is nothing to sneeze at when Oden and Durant are on the line. We can't control which ping pong ball gets selected, but we can influence how many of those ping pong balls say "Atlanta Hawks" on them. Man please. I've been a loyal and unwavering fan of this franchise for 23 years. And I don't live in Atlanta or in Georgia. If anything, I should be a Laker, Bull or a Sixer fan, seeing that they were some of the popular teams when I was growing up. Instead, I resisted the temptation to be a fan of the "Showtime" Lakers or a mindless follower of Jordan, and latched onto Nique and the Hawks. People ignored the thread 1) because I'm too long-winded and write too much . . and 2) they want to keep as much hope as possible about our chances in the Draft. And because I correctly point out our chances, some people don't want to come to that realization. And that's cool. The Hawks could lose every game from here on out, and it still wouldn't help us in the long run if those balls don't fall our way. We're talking percentage points for each position we rise and fall. The field is still heavily stacked against us. So if it happens . . great. If it doesn't . . the odds were heavily against us in the first place, no matter what we do the rest of the season. The formula is easy BDawg. If you understand how to plug in numbers to an equation, anybody on this board can see our ACTUAL chances to get the 1st, 2nd or 3rd pick, depending on how many combinations are left on the board. 1000 total combinations worst record) 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick 2nd worst ) 199 combinations, 19.9% chance 3) 156 combinations, 15.6% chance 4) 119 combinations, 11.9% chance 5) 88 combinations, 8.8% chance 6) 63 combinations, 6.3% chance 7) 43 combinations, 4.3% chance 8) 28 combinations, 2.8% chance 9) 17 combinations, 1.7% chance 10) 11 combinations, 1.1% chance 11) 8 combinations, 0.8% chance 12) 7 combinations, 0.7% chance 13) 6 combinations, 0.6% chance 14) 5 combinations, 0.5% chance Just plug the numbers in, and you can easily determine our % chances. X # of team combination / total combinations left = percentage chance per pick. It's too bad that this process isn't done live. If it was, people would definitely look at it from a per-pick ( position ) basis. Just don't cuss out Marvin if he drops 29 points and grabs 11 boards against the Celtics, and the Hawks win. If he does that, he's just doing his job.

. . to tell somebody to SHUT UP? How about you shut the hell up! Truth be told, you try to be articulate in all of your arguments and your stances, but the entire board knows that you're one of the biggest idiots on the entire board. The things you speak on prove that on a daily basis. And don't you owe somebody some money, for that ridiculous Sene bet that you made at the beginning of the year? Or did you come to your senses, and not take that bet? The vast majority of your "plans" consists of pipe dream type scenarios that are either totally "retarted" ( as Tim Duncan would say ), or totally unrealistic because the other team wouldn't go for it. If the board listened to your "wisdom", we'd have Luke Ridnour running the point and Seattle would have our Indy pick. I wonder which PG the board would rather have . . Luke or Mike Conley, Jr? No other person on this board twists the "truth" around more than you do Mr. W. You have your "followers" believing that the fate of the franchise SOLELY revolves around whether we get a top 3 pick or not. Tell that ish to Dallas and Detroit, or Phoenix for that matter, who have had top 3 picks in the past, and couldn't do a damn thing until they traded for cast-offs, or signed FAs. Anybody that knows the HISTORY of the NBA, knows that you need a myriad of things in order to build a championship caliber team. And one of the main things you need are VETERANS THAT KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE GAME. That's why the Mavs have rotinely traded away 1st round picks, to get vets who they didn't have to mold into becoming good NBA players. You hype up getting a top 3 pick, like there are 3 Hall of Fame caliber players in this draft, when you fully know that the ONLY player in this draft that will help us achieve "greatness", is Greg Oden. We'd take Durant, but we'd have to move a whole host of people just to balance the team out at that point. And we STILL might not get a decent center or a decent PG out of any deal not involving Josh Smith, Durant, or JJ. LOL . . we'd have 4 back-up PGs and 5 forwards 25 years old and under. At that point, we'd definitely have to do what Diesel suggests, and just run and gun. The underlying fact about this league is that young teams, more often than not, do not WIN until they reach full maturation. And a lot of teams never reach full maturation unless they trade for players who are already fully developed. And even if we did add Oden to this squad, you're still talking about a possible 5 - 7 years before we get to championship level. Every team in this league has had to go through their growing pains in the playoffs, before they became title contenders. So you can save all that BS that you talk about, for people who know nothing about the game. I can go toe-to-toe with you about the NBA without even breaking a sweat. As of right now, 88.1% are the percentages against your Oden pipe dream. If it happens, great. If it doesn't, the odds were against us in the first place. Don't get mad at me for pointing out the FACTS.

Quote: Quote: They'll say . . "well . . I'd rather be at 84% than at 91%." LOL . . when the odds are stacked against you like that, does it really matter? Who cares if a player shoots 38% from the field or 45%? It is only 7%. How can such a small difference really matter? The problem with that, is that shooting 45% is actually good . . seeing that maybe 10% of the players in the NBA shoot over 50% in the NBA. Two totally different situations. Now turn that around. What if we're talking about Free Throws? Who do you foul . . Antoine Walker or Shaq? 75% is good . . 85% is great. But they both shoot under 50% FT and routinely go through stretches when they can only make 30% or so of their foul shots. It's not like it's a big difference in choosing who to foul in that situation. That's what the lottery is like. The exact opposite goes when you're talking about the difference between fouling Dirk Nowitzki and Jerry Stackhouse. Both are very good free throw shooters, 84% and over. If you foul either one of those guys, the percentages say that both will more than likely make their foul shots, even if one of them are a 6% or so better shooter from the line. People can skew numbers anyway they want, to try to fit their argument. But in the end, common sense has to take over. A 15% chance is better than an 11% chance. LOL . . but there's still an 85% - 90% chance that you will be unsuccessful. No need to stress over the final 2 weeks of the season, no matter what happens.

"There are essentially 3 drafts for 3 positions. In total with the 3rd worst record we have roughly a 50% chance at a top 3 pick." By the way tankers . . that quote came from your tank "leader" Mr. W. He said that about 2 weeks ago in another thread. I feel sorry for you guys though. You're stressing out over a mere 3.4% increase of a chance, per pick. Instead of just watching the games, and letting the chips fall where they may, you're as stressed as ever. It's "Hawk Hell" at its worst. LOL @ worrying about what the Bucks and Bobcats do. I'm sure they aren't worrying about us. When there's an 84% chance that we won't get the 1st pick . . a 79% - 84% chance that we won't get the #2 pick . . and a 72% - 84% chance that we won't get the #3 pick . . even if we finish with the 3rd worst record . . I don't see why people are even stressing over a few wins or losses. This should be a stress-free time for Hawks fans. A time to just let the season play out and prepare for the off-season. You can't control the fall of the ping-pong balls . . and you can't control how the other teams play. So just let the season play itself out. And I especially love this response from Walter: Quote: In short, quit being an idiot about this. Don't make complex what is simple, don't try change the facts and obfuscate truth, and lastly, don't appeal to "people like Josh Smith" when you choose to do such little person things. The odds are clear. We don't need someone with a diversionary smoke machine, selling mocking hate towards fans, appealing to the word of "those like Josh Smith" to "clear it all up for us". Thank you. LOL @ Mr. Realism now resorting to "hopes and dreams". Like you said in the other thread, you had it set in your mind that we weren't going to make the playoffs by early January, and was calling for "giving up" on the season then. Forget that we were 4 - 5 games from the #8 spot, and were starting to get people back healthy, you were all for the tank from the jump . . lol. The rest of us still had "HOPE" that these guys could finish strong to end the season. At least our hope weren't based on the fall of ping-pong balls, and teams openly trying to lose. Now, you're the poster child for HAWK HOPE when the odds are so heavily stacked against us. It's absolutely hilarious to me. LOL @ me being an idiot and changing the facts. I laid out the numbers so that they CAN'T be disputed. That's why they HAVEN'T been disputed. And the odds are indeed clear. Heavily stacked against us in every way, shape, and form. The numbers are undeniable. There is a better chance that one of the teams that finish 6 - 10 get the top pick in the draft, than the #3 pick in the draft getting the top pick. And the odds of the #2 or #3 team getting the top pick, is 10% more than the odds of the #1 team getting the top pick. It's a reason why the worst team in the draft hardly ever gets the #1 pick in this system. Either the 75% chance of them NOT landing the top pick is too much to overcome, or the system is fixed altogether, hence, why the process isn't shown live. The common sense answer, is that having a 25% shot of landing the top pick is better than anyone else . . but the odds still SUCK, seeing that 3 out of 4 times, you'll be a loser. And it's funny how you guys keep talking about a top 3 pick, like this is a 3 - 5 player draft . . when there is NO CONSENSUS on who we should take at #3, if we get that pick. Who do we take? I hope this isn't the fate of the tank crowd, when we don't land a top 3 pick. It'll be a shame to lose such passionate Hawk fans over the fall of some ping-pong balls.

Quote: I find it endlessly amusing that this thread has been ignored. Endlessly. It's hysterical to me. These cats around here are stressing out over whether we have an 84% chance of not getting Oden, as opposed to an 88% or 91% chance. They'll say . . "well . . I'd rather be at 84% than at 91%." LOL . . when the odds are stacked against you like that, does it really matter? What bugs me isn't the fact that they want us to lose. What bugs me is that they seemed to get mad at the very players that they cheered for all year, because all they're doing . . is their jobs. If this was December, they'd be all over a player for playing 1/2 speed. But now, that is totally acceptable in their minds, just so that we can stay at an 84% chance of not getting Oden. It's hilarious to me. Now that Smoove is suspended, we'll see how much we fall off . . if we fall off any. But you know what I think will happen? A guy like Shelden Williams is going to start playing pretty good basketball, along with Marvin, and keep the Hawks competitive, if not win a few of these games. Then these clowns will start bytching at Marvin, Shelden, and any other player that goes out and acts like a PROFESSIONAL

Quote: Let's not forget the Terry for Walker trade, and subsequently Walker for a trashbag. Also killing any cap we had by those stupid signings and the completely pointless AJ trade. Both should go, but BK is worse. You do know that the Terry for Walker trade enabled us to not only get about 14 million off the books, but also gave us an extra 1st round pick. The money and the pick was used to get Joe Johnson here. If it wasn't for the prospect of paying him that extra 8 million to give him that first year salary of 20 million, Phoenix probably matches the deal. But because we pulled a "jack move" like that, Phoenix blinked, and we got JJ.

Officially label me a hater of the Hawks and everything they're trying to do for the future . . . Because I LOVED the effort they put out in the 2nd half of that game. Salim dropping 3's all over the place. Shelden controlling the defensive boards and grabbing offensive boards. And Smoove . . what can you say about that guy? As a Hawk fan, how dare I root for the team and the effort of those guys, even though the season is almost officially over. ( One more Magic win or one Hawks loss officially eliminates us from the playoffs . . lol ) But . . OH NO!! The Hawks winning means that our odds of NOT getting Oden with the #1 pick stay at 88.1% . . instead of reducing those odds to 84.4%. God forbid that we go to #5. That'll give us a 91.2% chance of not getting Oden. It is imperative that we stay at that 5 out of 6 chance of NOT getting Oden at #1. OMG . . we can't increase our odds of not getting Oden by having the Hawks win. So we MUST root against the team. Root against your favorite team at all costs, so that our odds can be reduced to 84.4%. Root for us to lose, and root for them to win. (( crying )) It's our only hope!! (( drying tears )) But it's OK . . if we don't get #1, we have a good shot to get #2 and take Durant. But if we don't get #1, we have to hope that the worst team gets that #1 spot. That way, our odds of not getting that #2 spot will be reduced to 79.2% (( sigh )) So if we don't get the #1 or #2 picks . . we have to hope that the "odds" stay true to form ( something that has NEVER happened in the lottery since they changed the format in 1995 ). With the worst and 2nd worst teams out of the way, our odds of not getting that #3 pick will be reduced to 71.7%. That'll be GREAT !! The the future of the Hawks will be SAVED!! We can build a statue in front of Philips arena of the ping-poing lottery machine that gave us our Savior. Hallejua . . thank ya Jesus !! But alas, a famous Hawksquawk poster once said this about obtaining one of the top 3 picks . . "There are essentially 3 drafts for 3 positions. In total with the 3rd worst record we have roughly a 50% chance at a top 3 pick. So let's celebrate!! A 50% chance of getting one of the top 3 picks . . because we can add the probability percentages for each round, and come up with a number that will reflect what chance we have of landing a top 3 pick. Intersting. Well if you add 15.6% ( best odds for a #1 ) + 20.8% ( best odds for a #2 ) + 28.3% ( best odds for a #3 ) . . that equals at best a 64.7% chance of landing a top 3 pick!! YES . . I think!! Uh oh . . but I thought there are essentially 3 separate drafts for 3 positions? And with those 3 separate drafts, doesn't the variable change according to the number of eligible ping-pong combinations left on the board? And if that's true, how can you just add your percentage chances across the board, to come up with an accurate probability? Oh . . that must be the "new math". I get it now. YES !! So if the worst record gets the #1 pick, we'll still have 49.1% chance at best of landing the #2 or #3 pick, right? That would be the best case scenario for a team at the #3 spot, if the worst team got the #1 pick. (( dancing like Snoopy )) But if picks 1 and 2 don't fall our way, is our chance of landing that #3 pick still around 40 - 50% . . because we can add the probability numbers in totality that we used to justify us having a 45 - 50% chance of obtaining a top 3? Kind of confusing to follow, when you're looking at numbers separately and then try to look at them cumulatively at the same time. So let's review: Pick 1 - 156 combinatins divided by 1000 ping-pong combinations = 15.6% chance for that particular pick. Pick 2 - 156 combinaitons divided by X-number of ping-pong combinations left on the board = a variable percentage chance not higher than 20.8% for that particular pick. Pick 3 - 156 combinations divided by X-number of ping-pong combinations left on the board = a variable percentage chance not higher than 28.3% for that particular pick. Three different drafts for three different positions. Also, three different variables for three different drafts to select those 3 different positions. People looking at the probability chance of the draft in its totality, without looking at the acutal chance of a combination falling during each selection, says there is a around a 50% chance of landing a top 3 pick. This keeps "hope" alive . . as Jesse Jackson would say. People like Josh Smith look at the draft as 3 separate drafts, in which your chances in each "draft" put you at a success rate under 30%, in even the best case scenario. That type of thinking keeps him, and others, from sticking their heads in the clouds and dream about something that is unlikely to happen. It's funny though. The same people who "kept" hope alive about a playoff berth for the Hawks, are now the "realists" about the lottery and the actual chances of landing a top 3 pick, even if we're the 3rd worst team at the end of the season. And the people who were the "realists" about the Hawks chances about making the playoffs, are now the people "hoping" that the draft falls our way, by obtaining as many ping-pong ball combinatins as we can, and hoping that the team that they love, lose every game to get those ping-pong balls. Interesting. I guess the difference is that the people who were hoping the Hawks could make the playoffs, did so because the actual players could control their destiny. In the case of the lottery, an uncontrollable variable like the fall of ping-pong balls control the destiny.

Quote: I am sure we wil resign him I just dont no if it will be this off season or Knight wait until he is a restricted free agent and matches like he did with Jason Terry. I wonder if Smith will seak a sort contract like Lebron and Wade so he can become a free agent sooner. It's not good business sense to lock Smoove in with an extension this summer. They should wait until the season starts to finalize any extension. Or you can do just like you said, and just wait until someone gives him an offer, so that we can match it. I'm sure Smoove isn't brave enough to pull an "Eddy Curry", and not sign any offer sheet and take the flat 3.1 million he'll be worth in 08 - 09 . . then become an unrestricted FA after that season. Smoove isn't going anywhere anytime soon, unless he demands to be traded and truly becomes a disruptive locker room presence . . or unless the Hawks don't feel that he's worth more than "x-amount" of dollars or a MAX contract. He'll get his money, starting with the 08 - 09 season, most likely from us. No need to even worry about that right now.

Quote: The sad part is the Hawks are trying to win and still have no leaders at crunch time.Yes I want us to tank thats a given and I don't want anyojne stepping to kill our chances but if you flip the coin who are the leaders that are making the big shots? NO one. JJ is the only one which doesn't bode well for the future. We need a Durant or Oden in the worst way. This current bunch is not going to develop cruch time players.You are or you aren't and the Hawks are badly assembled. Thanks to BK what a frickin joke of a GM! Then again Scout, you have to realize that JJ actually creates a lot of opportunities for these kids to make big shots. His presence on the floor is sorely missed at the end of games. Smoove and a healthy Lue have all hit big shots . . off JJ assists . . in the past. The same would be true now, if JJ were playing. That's just what happens when your best player and possibly your best playmaker on the team, isn't able to play.

Why diss Shelden when he hardly played? I swear, it's like some of you guys actively root against players, instead of wanting them to get better. LOL . . you tankers should actually WANT Shelden to play as much as possible, if he's so bad.

Smoove is ice cold in the 2nd half. That's too bad.

And with "Turnover" Pachulia up to his usual tricks, why even have him in the game right now? Oh I forgot . . we're in tank mode. So you need all of your "game killers" out on the floor to make sure that we lose. Playing Solomon too long might actually win a game. Lord knows we don't want to do that. {/sarcasm}

Quote: Quote: They traded for AJ and are starting him, they are playing Lue, LOL Lue has hardly played for months and has sucked when he has played. He has been falling down or losing the ball at a ridiculous rate. AJ is 1-4 with 2 assists and 3 turnovers. Sure Zaza is starting but you did say you wanted Lo and speedy not playing at all and they haven't. You wanted Solomon to play more and he is. Not to mention our All-Star isn't playing. Ex, you might as well be talking to your remote control at home, when mentioning this to Walter. He's obviously never played an organized sport before. If he has, he'd know that athletes just flat out hate to lose. And the management knows that the continued development of the Joshs and Marvin are more vital to the success of this franchise, than some 84+% chance of not getting the #1 pick.

Quote: And also Young Solomon has been huge today... That kid is just pure energy. LOL . . and he gets a block on Duhon as I'm typing this. Even if he is undersized, Woody, or the next coach, need to seriously think about putting him in the starting lineup next season.

Johnny, at least you talk with some sense. We need to change some things, but it's far from the end of the world if we don't get either of those picks in the draft. LOL @ these other guys, worrying where the Hawks will finish. If we finish 3rd, we have an 84.4% chance of NOT getting that #1 pick. If we finish 5th, which is where we are now, we have a 91.2% chance of NOT getting the pick. In either case, the odds are very much against us not getting that pick. So why even worry about where we finish? You cheer for young guys playing their azz off, only to come up short, just so they possibly get another player to help them? I'm sure Marvin and Chill will be all smiles, if the Hawks land the #2 pick, and the Hawks take Durant . . possibly making both players obsolete for our future. LOL . . it's not like you can MAKE the Hawks lose. Hell, they're in such disarray right now, that they're losing, despite playing hard. And you clowns CHEER for that ish? You know what the NIGHTMARE scenario is for the Hawks in regards to the draft? That we indeed do finish with the 3rd worst record, and Indy finishes with the 11th worst record. And all of you will talk for WEEKS about how we're going to get 2 lottery picks out of the deal. Then the absurd comments about the Hawks will dominate the East next year, and possibly be playing for a championship in 2009. I say that because this is what you guys do. You're either all the way negative, or way too positive. There is no middle ground about the progression of this team. We're either the worst team in the NBA when we lose . . or we don't need JJ when we win. Then on May 22nd, the commish counts down the teams, in reverse order, of who will pick where in the lottery. "The 14th pick in the 2007 NBA draft . . the LA Clippers the 13th pick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . the New Orleans Hornets the 12th pick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . the Sacramento Kings" Then when the commish gets to the 11th pick, and SHOULD say the name of the Pacers, he says this instead . . "The 11th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, goes to the New York Knicks." THAT'S WHEN YOU NEED TO WORRY!! Because it'll be at that time that you'll know that there is a distinct possiblity that we're going to lose both picks. Now, you're hoping that by the time the commish gets to #4, that he doesn't say this . . "The 4th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, goes to the Phoenix Suns." Then Indy will get pick #3. At least the anti-tankers on this board have the HEART and GUTS to live with the possiblity of this exact team coming back, minus a few insignficant players. We're the ones that live in reality. Not the fantasy world that wants to see the Hawks lose 9 of their final 10 games, just to up some lottery percentage that has proven over the years to be a total crap shoot in the first place. The pro-tank crowd better come to the realization that this team may NOT get a player in the draft, that will upgrade us next year. I'd much rather see your opinions on what the team can do next year to bring in good/better players, than to toss a penny into the wishing well, and make wishes. But I guess you guys have no hope, and need to hope for something for the next 6 weeks. LOL . . it'll be hilarious if a guy like Oden, who actually LIKES TO LEARN, doesn't come out becuse he feels that his NBA game isn't ready yet. That kid has said plenty of times that he wants to be GREAT. What he does against Hibbert, may very well determine what he'll do/say about committing to the NBA draft in a few weeks.

(( singing like Aaliyah . . God rest her beautiful soul )) I'm typing up a 4-page letter And I enclosed it with a kiss And when I write him, he better . . get it on tiiiiiiimeeee

Quote: No, BK is by far worse than any GM in the league. The only draft pick he got right was the one that you aren't supposed to get right. All the picks that he SHOULD have gotten right (#6, #2, #5) he's blown. We already had 3 first round SFs AND Harrington, along with a high 2nd rounder in Donta when he selected Marvin. WHY? Marvin didn't even start and only averaged 11 ppg, and choked in big games, why make that pick? I can understand if he had a Durant/Melo freshman season, but he was nowhere NEAR that. Not to mention how bad the Shelden promise was. The JT trade was HORRIBLE. The AJ trade was HORRIBLE. The Walker trade was HORRIBLE (result of the horrible JT trade). All of his FA signings have turned out bad. Zaza isn't a bad deal, but it's not like he's made a difference, it's not exactly a good deal. All the capspace he's created has been destroyed by stupid signings/trades. We have Lue, AJ, Speedy, Lo, Slava making like 15 million, and none are making a difference. BK got one pick right by getting Smith (an OBVIOUS pick), but has blown the ones that were expected to be impact players. In my eyes, the only true positive of BK is the JJ trade. He's drafted over 10 players for the Hawks, and not ONE has been a PG or C. He has DIRECTLY passed the ROY 2 years in a row. He continues to support Woodson also, which really irks me. Although Woodson is bad, BK is MILES worse. We'd be a playoff team regardless if not for BK's time after time again draft/FA/trade squanders. There is no way possible I will give BK some slack. No way BK is worse than Kevin McHale or Isaiah Thomas. Mr. "I need to holla at Kevin Durant's mama and violate the NBA code of conduct for GMs" ( Ainge ) isn't a worldbeater either. Mitchy K. in La La Land can be put in that group as well. And I named those right off the top of my head. LOL . . there are a lot of bad GMs in this league, when you really look at the teams and the moves/draft picks that they've made. I say BK ranks somewhere between 17th and 25th. Somewhere close to middle of the road, to just above the bottom 5. If you think hard enough, I'm sure we can come up with some more who are worst, or at least on BK's level.