TheNorthCydeRises

So how is that different from Kyle Korver? Most people around here were talking about paying him a MLE level contact. Copeland is supposedly slow and unathletic, but averaged over 20 ppg on a per 36 minute basis, and had a 58.3 TS% last season? I won't go on about Copeland though. When the Knicks finally come to their senses, they'll find ways to keep that dude on the floor and get him the ball. Maybe even play him with Melo, so that Melo can have a bail out guy to pass the ball to. This may look like an easy play, but I bet that Anthony Tolliver, Steve Novak, and especially Kyle Korver can't do this:

Nate Robinson was 41 - 38 when he was on the floor overall. Lou Williams was 19 - 20 when he was on the floor overall. And when Lou went down, we were a 22 - 16 team ( 58% winning percentage ). Try again man. Nate can do everything that Lou Williams can do, and some things even better, other than draw fouls on his jumpshot. I don't know what other "specific role" Lou can do for the Hawks, other than to be a high usage, volume scorer . . which was exactly what he was asked to do in Philly. He can't play the point. He can't defend the 2. And he was shaky as hell in pick and roll situations. He shot the ball very well in spot up situations ( 1.34 ppp . . . 5th in the league . . . and shot over 50% from 3 in those situations ). A lot of those spot of 3's were set up by Josh Smith. He shot the ball decent coming off screens, but had high value on this shot, because he drew a ton of fouls ( 1.14 ppg . . . 9th in the league . . 42% FG . . but drew a foul on 9.2% of these shots, a very high rate ) Lou draws fouls. And drawing fouls is what makes him a very effective player at times. It's those games in which he's not drawing fouls, is when he kind of gets exposed as a shooter . . because he's not a shooter. There is no way that Lou Williams is so important, that we discourage Howard and Paul to take less money, just to keep him around. You win championships with guys who are 1st and 2nd team All-NBA caliber guys. Not guys who are potential 6th man of the year award winners. Lou can be replaced . . . just like we replaced Tyronn Lue with Flip Murry . . . who we replaced with Jamal Crawford . . . who we replaced with Lou Williams.

I somewhat agree on the points estimation. I originally had Howard at 19 ppg . . and Paul and Horford at 16 ppg. Paul can make everybody better, so I could see 2 or 3 other guys on the team be around that 10 - 12 ppg mark, if Paul is dishing out 10+ assists. As for Copeland, he was an instant offense type of player last year. He scored almost 9 points in a little over 15 minutes per game. He shot the ball very well from 3 point range and can take people off the dribble. He and Mike Scott went toe to toe in that final game of the season. Knicks fans love that dude maybe more than some of our fans love Kyle Korver. If I'm a team that needs talent, like the Lakers and the Hawks, I'm definitely using part or possibly all of the MLE to sign Copeland. They'll just have to teach that kid how to be much more aware on defense. But if all a team wants from him is to score, he's a very good fit. He's a much more versatile scorer than Kyle Korver, that's for sure.

Yes. And that's why Ferry needs to have a good idea of if he has a good shot to get Howard and/or Paul, before free agency even starts. We might play a game, in which we try to hold onto certain guys for as long as we can, before renouncing them. The problem with that, is that as soon as someone submits an offer sheet to one of our guys, we'll have 3 days to match the offer, or lose them for nothing. I'm specifically talking about Jeff Teague and Ivan Johnson, in that case. Our hand could be forced right away on Teague, if someone gives him an offer sheet right when free agency starts. SMH . . . what if Milwaukee decides that they don't want Jennings back, and decides to throw Teague an offer sheet? I can see Drew now talking about . . "go get the kid in Atlanta." Now of course, Teague doesn't have to sign the offer sheet. But I don't know if he's going to play around with someone offering him his first big money deal, and wait to see what the Hawks are going to do. And a guy like Ivan definitely isn't going to wait, if he gets a 2 yr - 4 million deal from somebody. He's taking the money, regardless of who offers it. So yeah. Ferry can't play around with a quest to get Howard and Paul, if he really doesn't have a shot at them. He needs to know really by draft day, if he has a good shot to land those two. The scenario that's still most likely to go down, is for Dwight to re-sign with the Lakers, and Paul to re-sign with the Clippers. The Hawks need to properly plan for that, which I'm sure they're doing.

- Jack will go to any quality team that pays him, and plays him meaningful minutes. In Atlanta, he could very well be our starting 2 guard alongside Paul, while also handing the backup PG duties. - So OJ is now getting more than the MLE? I thought most Hawk fans thought he was garbage? But now he's going to get paid like he's a high quality role player? OK. Mayo would be perfect beside Paul though, or as a 6th man scorer. - Agreed. Bayless isn't as good as Lou. - Nate Robinson did just about everything better than Lou did last season. He shot better. He ran the point better. His defense was even better ( and Nate is nowhere near a good defender ). And he's much more durable. The only question would be could a "mini-me" backcourt of Robinson and Paul play together for about 4 - 6 minutes a night, with them trying to push the tempo as much as possible ( ala what Paul and Bledsoe did last season at times ). That would enable Nate to get 17 - 20 minutes a game. - If Coon is right, and this new CBA is going to suppress some salaries, a guy like Martin ( who is strictly a one-dimensional player ) may see his stock significantly reduced. Guys like he and JR Smith show the capability to be big time scorers. But because they're so one-dimensional, their value is diminished. I will say that the MLE is probably the minimum he'll get from somebody. - See the above. The same applies to JR Smith - Chris Copeland would be PERFECT in a ball movement heavy, San Antonio style system, because not only can he put the ball on the floor and score, he can shoot the spot up 3 pointer. Anybody who believes strongly in analytics will see that Crawford's numbers were off the charts last year, and Woody may have made a mistake in relying on the schizophrenic JR Smith to provide the bulk of the Knicks' bench scoring. His weakness is defense, not offense. 1.04 points per play . . 30th in the league . . . shot 47.4% FG - 42.9% 3FG 1.27 points per play as the Pick and Roll Man ( as a guy who can play both SF and PF ) . . . 10th in the league . . . shot 54.4% FG - 44.8% 3FG . . . this basically means that he was scoring by going hard to the hole, and by knocking down the 3 point shot. 1.20 points per play as a Spot Up shooter ( representing 33% of his offense ) . . . 26th in the league . . . shot 49.3% FG - 41.7% 3FG Lou Williams is a scorer . . . not a shooter. His career high as a 3 point shooter came last year at 36.7%. Can he improve on that mark, stay the same, or regress back to his normal 34% 3 point shooting? He's also a guy that crashed and burned in the playoffs ( ala Jamal Crawford ), when teams significantly tightened up on him. And I don't know how an off the bench scorer is going to average 15 ppg, if Horford and Dwight are averaging more than 20, and Paul is also close to 20 ppg. Plus Jenkins is getting you 15 ppg? Nah man . . . way to ambitious from a ppg standpoint. If anything, you're going to see our top 3 guys get their points, and everybody behind them be somewhere around 7 - 12 ppg. The San Antonio system is a "share the wealth" type of system that looks to get the best shot in a possession, by having the right people take that shot. Most people thought the Hawks last year would easily average over 100 ppg last year, and we didn't even come close. Like I said, if Paul and Howard want the max, you sell off everybody other than Horford to make that happen. Lou Williams isn't THAT important. Find somebody ( or multiple people ) who can replace what he does on the court.

The other thing is this. IF we do secure a "Big 3" in the form of Howard, Paul, and Horford, will that entice decent veteran guys to possibly sign here for the league minimum, in order to chase a ring? Could we get solid veterans like Chauncey Billups and Elton Brand to come here and give us quality bench minutes, if we have a Big 3? I think guys like that would be in play for us.

Let me throw a list of free agents at you, and see if you think they can possibly be a better fit than Lou Williams, if we get rid of him to create more cap space - Jarrett Jack ( PG ) - OJ Mayo ( G ) - Jerryd Bayless ( G ) - Nate Robinson ( G ) - Kevin Martin ( G ) - JR Smith ( G ) - Nick Young ( G ) - Chris Copeland ( F ) All of these players are very capable of being that lead scorer off the bench. And my thinking is that most of these players could possibly be signed for a few years at the full MLE level, once we're over the Salary Cap after signing Howard, Paul, our draft picks, and a few fringe players. And on a team featuring Paul, Howard, and Horford, I think that 4th leading scorer on the team will average somewhere between11 - 14 ppg. But if we're implementing a San Antonio style type of system here, the PPG breakdown may look something like this: Howard - 20 ppg Paul - 18 ppg Horford - 16 ppg "scorer" - 11 ppg Jenkins - 10 ppg If Jenkins struggles, maybe the "scorer's" ppg will rise to around 13 - 14 ppg. Or maybe Howard, Paul, and Horford will take it upon themselves and score a lot more. All I know is that Lou Williams' favorable contract cannot be a factor in all of this. If Howard and Paul want as close to the max as possible, you sell off any and everybody not named Al Horford to make that happen. Even if that includes Jenkins and our draft picks this year. You don't blink, when you have a chance to secure an impact player(s).

Maybe Ham can teach Horford how to do this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MF3o1_U0OOQ

Well . . . this is the #1 secondary headline on ESPN.com now. The ASG ( when Gearon was the mouthpiece for the group ) let it be known that they don't care too much for the AJC. Even accused them of bashing the Hawks every chance they got. And Gearon was right on the money. So it's no surprise that the AJC will break a story like this ( just like they broke the Gearon rant about KG last year during the playoffs, when Gearon called KG "the dirtiest player in the game" ). And Cunningham did that, on his way out. http://blogs.ajc.com/hawks/2012/05/09/atlanta-hawks-gearon-garnett-dirtiest-guy-in-the-league-hawks-dont-get-any-calls/ Atlanta media, like most of the basketball fans in that city, could give a damn about the Hawks. Only the true die hards care about the team.

LOL @ trying to make Korver not look worse than what he was. Stephenson is the SG . .. George is the SF. It was Korver who got DESTROYED in every facet of the game in that playoff series, outside of the one game in which he made some shots.

While I don't believe that this is a major deal that might not even remotely help us get these two, there's no way I believe that this PR staff is that savvy enough to do this on purpose.

If they're charging him with vehicular homicide, that means he was probably drunk. smh

Speaking of "scrubs" . . . ATLscrublove is the guy who can have the most effect from a fan standpoint, since he's our "unofficial" video editor. Make a video featuring Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Al Horford. Title it . . "The NEW Big 3 in Atlanta?" Compile a series of the best highlights featuring those 3 player, along with good interview soundbites. Even do some on-screen graphics citing their accomplishments as NBA players. He's a creative video maker, so I'm sure he can come up with something real good in about 2 weeks. I wish my editing skills were tight. I'd do it.

Nah . . . Horford isn't a great rebounder. He's good though. Maybe he'd be better playing alongside a true center, so that he can roam the floor grabbing boards at the PF spot. If Horford could rebound like Larry Sanders, he may be a borderline superstar in this league. He'd be putting up Kevin Love type rebounding games on occasion, while still being one of the most offensively efficient PF/C in the game.

@ nitte . . . Pekovic is actually a good rebounder. He averaged 8.8 rebounds last year. The 5.1 you cited, were the defensive rebounds he averaged, which is a little below what you would like from your starting center that plays 32 minutes a game. His specialty is offensive rebounding. He was one of the best in the league in this department. That's why he's like a much better coordinated version of Zaza. He's going to pound the offensive boards and kill you on offense in the post. He'll play good position defense too. But his lack of athleticism and positioning ( or effort ) to get defensive rebounds has him grabbing defensive boards at a relatively lower rate than most good starting centers. Pekovic had an offensive rebounding rate of 13%. That's comparable to Zaza, who had a 13.5% offensive rebounding rate last season. 13% would place both guys in the top 10 in OReb% amongst guys who got playing time every night. Pekovic had a defensive rebounding rate of 19%. That's comparable to Marc Gasol, who is a below average defensive rebounding center. Zaza has a 20.3 Dreb% rate. Overall, Pekovic rebounds at about the same rate as Al Horford, with Horford being the better defensive rebounder and Pekovic being the better offensive rebounder. With offensive rebounding being a major weakness for this team, Pekovic would be a good add to the Hawks. But we did have a tendency to get killed on the defensive boards at times, so adding Pek may not help in that area, unless Horford really becomes Karl Malone-like, and starts to gobble up all the rebounds.

Harris also went from guarding elite Western Conference PGs like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, and Stephen Curry . . . to guarding backup Eastern Conference PGs like CJ Watson, Norris Cole, Kirk Hinrich, and Jason Kidd. Add the fact that when he did start, he mainly started at the 2 guard ( playing 1/2 of his minutes as a SG, compared to just about all of his minutes as the PG in Utah ), and it put his "improved" defensive numbers in perspective.

The wild card for Dallas, is Shawn Marion. He has an early termination option going into this summer. If he opts out, that will open up a ton of cap space for Dallas, after they basically renounce and refuse to pick up the option on other players. And if Dwight flat out tells the Lakers that he wants to play in Dallas, you'll have a scenario in which they Lakers will have no choice but to let him walk, or take on the rest of Dallas' players. A Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Darren Collison, and Rodrigue Beaubois trade for Dwight . . . . . . is one the Lakers just may do out of desperation, because it adds temporary talent to the team, and most important, a bunch of expiring contracts to the Lakers. With Kobe out until at least late December - early January, I could definitely see the Lakers taking this deal to stay somewhat relevant, then be in position to re-boot everything in the summer of 2014. Meanwhile, Dallas would have Dwight, and could offer Paul a contract that takes up the rest of their cap room. Cuban will tell both Howard and Paul to stay patient in 2013, seeing that they would only be able to add vet and rookie minimum type guys, and maybe a good MLE level player. Then in 2014, they can add talent, and see Dirk take a significant pay cut to keep him around. Cuban is savvy. No way is he out of the Dwight and Paul mix.

Why were you expecting a major jump like that? The growth of the salary cap has been pretty stagnant for the past 3 years, and we normally only see a big jump when the league signs a new TV deal. I think most of us were assuming that the cap would be around 60 million. So the teams that currently have cap space, can still afford at least one of Dwight or Chris. All of the teams talked about are still in the mix. And until we get some sort of legit sign that both Dwight and Chris want to play with each other, it doesn't matter if we have the money to afford both.

If the Rockets pull this off . . . smh. They are the poster child for a franchise supposedly stuck in the "no man's land" of being mediocre. But by staying active and aggressive, they find themselves to be one of the front runners to sign the biggest free agent prize of the offseason? And all of this because the Thunder got cheap, and refused to sign Harden. LOL . . if the Rockets get Howard, the Thunder may find themselves not only worrying about San Antonio, Denver, Memphis, and the LA Clippers, they'll now have to worry about the Rockets. Can anybody get Dwight to talk 90 seconds about coming to Atlanta? Do some high end strippers have some dirt on that dude that he doesn't want exposed? If not, then forget that dude and move on.

It's easier to find those good defensive perimeter players, than it is to find a real good low post scorer in this league. We could sign CJ Watson ( PG ), Tony Allen ( G ), and Matt Barnes ( F ), and dramatically improve the perimeter defensive prowess of this team. And probably secure them all for a total of under 10 million a year. But finding a guy who can also be a #1 type option in the halfcourt offense, AND a go-to scorer on the low block at the end of games, is much harder to find. In reality, this type of element in the half court was one of the reasons why the Hawks were so schizophrenic offensively over the years. When you have a team full of jumpshooters, without a good post threat, all it takes is for those jumpers not to fall for about a 6 minute stretch, for your team to get in trouble. And that used to happen way too much to the Hawks. When you talk about those 2009, 2010, and 2011 teams, we were a good low post option away from being a big time threat to reach the NBA Finals. The Horford - Jefferson lineup would finally give us the type of offensive balance that the Hawks have needed here. Horford has also shown the ability to be a playmaker out of the high post. So if Bud has some of those high-low plays in his system that Drew had Josh and Al running, I could see Horford playing Josh's role as a facilitator at the FT line, with passes to Jefferson down on the block for the score. IF we miss out on Howard and Paul- - draft Shane Larkin - draft Shabazz Muhammad - re-sign Ivan - re-sign Scott - re-sign Teague - sign Jefferson - sign Allen - sign Barnes - sign Watson - sign Dalembert . . . and let's roll.

Can't teach skills either, once a player gets to a certain age. To Pek's credit, he went for 19 points - 13 rebounds in this game ( 7 offensive boards ). So they basically played even vs each other. Wish I could find a specific game clip of Pekovic vs the Jazz ( and Jefferson ) in this game. Only could find this generic highlight of the game overall Once again though, you see just how talented Jefferson is as a post scorer, when you see his highlights in this game vs Pekovic Pek played good position defense when Jefferson was in the post, but Jefferson's offensive talent is just too good.

Lin and Asik got basically the same types of deals, a 3 yr - 25 million deal. The Rockets overpaid for both of them, especially Lin. But the reason why they were able to get both of them, is because both had poison pill provisions in them that would've had the Knicks and Bulls pay almost 15 million in Year 3, had they matched the Rockets' offer for both of them. Once the Knicks and Bulls refused to match, their salaries reverted back to a regular 3 - 25 type deal at 8.375 million a year. Even in the Rockets situation, if they missed out on Howard, you wouldn't sign Josh to a 4 yr - 48 million deal if you were the Rockets GM? They're a team that could desperately use an active defensive player like Josh at the PF. If they whiff on Howard, I think they're definitely going after Josh BIG TIME. Teams in this new CBA era are going to continue to pay star players. It's the fringe and mediocre players that will see their value cut. It's guys like Zaza that may be forced to sign 1 and 2 year deals from here on out, instead of seeing teams lock them up for 3 - 4 years. I think that's going to be the real way that teams keep their flexibility . . . by not overpaying for marginal or bench caliber talent.

Let me throw a scenario at you Buzz You're the GM of the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - You have the #1 and #19 pick in this year's draft. NBAdraft.net has them projected to take Ben McLemore at #1 and Shabazz Muhammad at #19 - You have 8 players under contract . . Irving ( PG ) - already an all-star caliber PG Varejao ( C ) - who was leading the league in rebounding when he got hurt Thompson ( PF ) - a decent young PF that plays 10 feet and in Waters ( G ) - an athletic young G who struggled with his shot somewhat Gee ( G ) - defensive minded wing that is limited offensively Zellar ( C ) - a young center that struggled with his shot, mainly because he shot too many jumpers Speights ( F/C ) - a jumpshooting big man that plays little defense - If you renounce all of your free agents and don't give qualifying offers to Casspi and Ellington, you're going to be around 20 million under the salary cap . . once the cap holds of the 1st round picks are added to the roster. So after the draft, and going into free agency, this is potentially your lineup PG: Irving G: McLemore - Waiters F: Muhammad - Gee PF: ???? - Thompson C: Varejao - Speights - Zellar You have now surrounded Kyrie with two of the better 3 point shooters in college basketball in McLemore and Muhammad. And while Thompson was decent last year, you have the potential to significantly upgrade the PF spot by adding Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, or Paul Millsap to your team as a major free agent signing. Do you do it? If so, at what price? ( remember, you're going to be somewhere around 20 million under the cap ) If not . . . why not?

I think that's Camp's point though. A team like Charlotte has absolutely nothing going for them, so they will do things out of desperation. Giving Josh a big money deal, and marketing him as the face of the franchise, along with their young talent, wouldn't be the worst thing they could do. And Charlotte would still be well under the Luxury Tax line, if not even still be below the salary cap. Contrary to popular belief around here, being a mediocre playoff team isn't the worst thing in the world in the NBA. Being completely irrelevant in the NBA, while putting out a losing product year after year, is the worst thing. We were there in 2004. What did we do? Get completely desperate in 2005, and basically hijacked Joe Johnson from Phoenix. Heck, even Houston did it last year, with their poison pill contracts to Asik and Jeremy Lin. They had to do "something" to get their fans talking and believing in the future. Then they made the BIG move by getting Harden. I'd be shocked . . SHOCKED . . if Josh didn't at least get a 4 yr - 52 million deal from somebody. He has major flaws to his game, but he's still a good player. For the Hawks though, Josh shouldn't be bought back, even if we could secure him for 4yrs - $1. And the reason for that is if he's brought back, he ( and his people ) are always going to believe that he's the star of the team ( even if Horford is clearly the better player these days ). He will not scale back his game, and become a playmaking F. He'll always take that broke jumpshot. At least if he was the star of a team of his own, he could justify taking those shots.

Calling him a "rich man's Zaza" is right on the money, although he's far superior offensively than Zaza in post scoring Your analysis is right on the money. Jefferson gets dogged like he's a weak player, yet, defensively he may be a little better than Pekovic. And Pekovic is strictly a 10 feet and in player on offense. And when people talk about Jefferson being a "black hole", Pekovic is DEFINITELY not passing that ball back out, once he gets it. He averaged less than 1 assist in almost 32 minutes a game. Minnesota would be crazy not to keep him around, because he is a fan favorite, and they have absolutely nothing going for them as a franchise right now. For the Hawks though, choosing Pek over Jefferson ( especially in the Eastern Conference ) would be a mistake. As for Hickson + Dalembert for a Jefferson or Pekovic price, that has its good and bad points. - Production wise, Hickson and Dalembert do a lot in the time they're in the game - Both are great rebounders on both ends of the floor - Dalembert is still a very good shot blocker - Both are relatively poor position defenders ( both get killed by good offensive centers ) - Both are probably best suited to come off the bench, although one will have to start ( preferably Dalembert ) - Bringing these two on will enable Horford to be the focal point of the offense. My preference is a Horford - Jefferson - Ivan - Scott type of frontline, so that both Horford and Jefferson can play center, keeping us strong at all times in the middle, while Horford, Ivan, and Mike Scott can man the PF spots. With Ivan and Scott, give the guy who's playing the best, the most minutes. On most nights though, I'd assume that guy would be Ivan. But both guys would play every night. No DNPs for them. PF - Horford ( 22 ) - Ivan ( 16 ) - Scott ( 10 ) C - Jefferson ( 35 ) - Horford ( 13 ) If that's our frontline rotation next year, I could definitely live with that.