TheNorthCydeRises

Because as of right now, he's arguably having an even better defensive year now, than last year.I personally would love to see the Hawks start a campaign RIGHT NOW, touting just how good defensively he is at times.I know some of you don't like to see stats on players this early in the season, but it needs to be noted that Josh Opponent Production is currently at a 9.1 PER. That's Andre Iguodala type of numbers. ( Iggy's Opponent Production is currently at 9.9 )And so far, when Josh plays SF, the opposing SF is posting a PER of 3.13.1 folks.Even his defense at PF is stellar, at a 11.7 PER.Ibaka's current Counterpart Production stands at 16.2 . . . . but the Thunder are on national TV 5x as much as the Hawks, and will get more exposure in big games. So the Hawks need to be a little . . no, a LOT more proactive in promoting his defense. And not just his block shots, because it's his on the ball defense that has improved greatly this year.Start the Defensive Player of the Year campaign right now for Josh. Don't let that dude get snubbed again from making 1st team All-NBA Defense, because people value guys like Ibaka more than Josh.

LOL @ that Jason Kidd play when he runs into Woody, and Woody gets the tech. I was in a hotel room in Charlotte watching that game, and I couldn't believe Kidd did that. I wonder if he and Kidd joke about that, now that Woody is coaching Kidd.

Overall, Teague has had a pretty good season so far. He's shooting a very high percentage from the field and is running the team fairly well, minus some of those turnovers in the pick and roll. When the floater is falling, he's been pretty hard to stop this year. And I like the fact that he's becoming much more assertive and confident in his offensive game.On the other side, Kemba Walker looks to be the player that the Bobcats thought they were getting. He's been outstanding this year, especially late in games. He's running the point and playing some 2 when playing alongside Sessions in the half court. It doesn't help us one bit that Sessions is their 2nd leading scorer, and looks to drive the basketball as well.I noticed that Teague had a big time problem containing AJ Price in that Washington game, even if AJ didn't score a lot. He consistently got past Teague. Walker will not only attack the rim, he'll pull up for that mid range jumper in which he's making 48% of them. So Teague has to first keep Kemba from getting everything he wants in the paint, and then be aware enough to know that he can and will make that 18 foot pull up jumper.I won't do a full review, since I know someone else likes to do that already. Just keep an eye on the Teague/Walker matchup. The winner of that may decide the game tonight.

Korver isn't the problem. It's the other guards who are the "shooters", that are the problem. Just can't get enough minutes for them, because of the imbalance of the lineup.

I'll keep the NJSI . . and you hang onto that eFG%. My index won't lie on who are the good long range jumpshooters in the league are. I might just run those numbers on Sunday, to see who is at the top of the NJSI. Korver will definitely be up there, if he keeps shooting like he's shooting. Heck . . Jamal Crawford may top that list, incredible as it may seem.

Horford needs to shoot 100 FTs right after the game, once the arena empties out. 1 - 10 FTs? Damn near lost the game for us.Big time shot by Korver, after a complete defensive breakdown on the play before that gave the Wiz the lead.A win is a win though. LOL @ this team tonight.

Good Lord . . . how are we down by 3?

This game turned all the way horrible all of a sudden. Hawks should be up 20 right now after those Korver 3's. But is only up by 4.

And Korver makes another 3 pointer in transition.But the sample size is too small . . lol.

Josh is having an excellent offensive game so far tonight ( midway in the 3rd as I type this ), because he's letting the guards create point blank looks for him at the rim. Only 3 total jumpers for him right now. Everything is around the rim. It's the way he should ALWAYS play.

Aren't you Mr. Win Score per 48? Tell me who the leaders are in that category for the Hawks . . . or is the sample size too small for that, to let you know who is actually playing well and having an impact in games. You don't need a 25 game sample size to let you know what guys are doing well and what they aren't. Like with Kyle Korver tonight. 1 - 5 from 3 going into halftime . . and I know that 3 of those misses came in spot up jumper type situations in the halfcourt. That's the rype of 3 point shot he's struggled with so far this year, while he's damn near made everything in transition from the 3 point line. Meanwhile, Midrange Shawty has only taken 2 jumpshots total, and is beasting on the inside via some nice passes from Devin Harris, and has even converted a few post ups. He's even making his FTs. You don't need a 25 game data set to let you know what the guy should, and shouldn't be doing. Like I said dude. You don't have to read the thread, if you don't think the data is of any consequence because of the sample size. Just bypass the thread and save yourself the "grief" of having to sift through what the early numbers are telling us about the Hawks.

I agree. And the way you can tell that the Knicks are forreal, is that they're not fooling around at all with the bad teams, and can go toe to toe with the good ones. And you can easily justify the loss to the Griz when you see that the night before, they had to go to San Antonio and won a tough game down there. The only question with the Knicks, is if Amare and Shumpert will mess up the chemistry when they come back. Honestly, Woody should seriously think about bringing Amare off the bench ( but still getting him 30 - 35 minutes a night ). He and Melo seem to not mix together ( especially defensively ). But now, the Knicks have a top notch defensive team, while also doing it on offense. Brooklyn reminds me of the 2009 - 10 Hawks, with the way they could take care of bad teams, but struggle vs good teams. JJ is struggling big time with his shot, mainly because Avery is turning him more into a spot up shooter, instead of a guy who works off Isolation. He's missing his floater also. And he can't score in the post either. Like Josh Smith, we'll see if this is an anomaly or a future trend.

I understand the game far more than you do sir. I'm not just tossing out a bunch of numbers. I'm tossing out the numbers and telling you why they are occurring ( via the video clips I can look at to back up my opinions and by the games I've already watched of this team ). Most people already knew all of this, but may not have known the details behind the numbers. That's what this thread is about, when it comes to people like Josh, Al, Teague, and Lou. People like you would be cool with Josh Smith jacking up 3 pointers left and right, if he could make 30% of them, because you'd justify that he's "effectively" shooting 45% on that shot. That's when looking at the stats, and not watching what is really going on, gets you in trouble. Or in other words . . . as long as people say something positive about Smith, there is no problem. But when people start talking negative about the dude, the excuse is . . "Oh just give him time. He'll snap out of it." Well let's see how long it takes for him to snap out of it. I'll update this thread after Game #20, and see how these players are progressing. You can either choose to view the thread, or not. Your choice.

Deshawn Stevenson After the red hot start, Deshawn is starting to cool off dramatically ( 2 for his last 15 from three ). And it doesn't help that of the 40 shots he's taken, 33 of them have been 3s. So as he reverts to how he shot the ball last season, he becomes more and more one dimensional. Anthony Morrow As Stevenson continues to struggle with his shot, and Harris continues to be lackluster when he plays the 2, Drew is going to have to consider playing Morrow a little more. ( Should be a lot more, honestly ). Small sample size, but he's shooting 48% FG and 50% 3FG. He's scoring almost a point every 2 minutes. Drew shouldn't continue to play ineffective players, when you have guys who can produce. If that means taking Harris completely out of the rotation so that Morrow can play more, so be it.

Zaza Pachulia Yes, Zaza is still "Turnover Pachulia" so far this season ( turns it over on 24% of the plays he's involved in ). Yes, he's still an offensive rebound demon. Yes, he's still the only true center on the Hawks. But in the role that he plays, he's been solid on both offense and defense. If he can continue to hold his man to under 35% FG shooting, it may propel him to a starter's role if Horford continues to struggle vs bigger and/or faster players. Ivan Johnson Still shooting almost 70% FG ( on a wide variety of shots ). Still fouling at a Summer League rate ( basically a foul every 6 minutes ). But with the way this dude plays in just a short amount of minutes, I'm just glad ( hopefully ) that Drew has come to his senses and has given him double figure minutes the last 3 games. And in those last 3 games, he's averaging 10 ppg 4.7 rebs 1.7 stls and has shot 70% FG ( 14 - 20 FGs. ) . . in just 18 minutes of play Stop holding the dude back and let him play. Gonna have that dude singing Rick Ross songs, talking about . . . . "Coach Drew tryna hold me back . . D. Ferry tryna hold me back."

Devin Harris Devin isn't really doing anything well so far, on both ends of the court. He has 3 main scoring types right now P&R Ball Handler . . . 32.3% of his shots . . . 40% FG . . . . 0.44 ppp ( will explain this in a minute ) Spot Up . . . . . . . . . . 32.1% of his shots . . . 26.7% FG . . 0.72 ppp Transition . . . . . . . . . 17.9% of his shots . . . 44.4% FG . . 1.1 ppp The reason why he only has a 0.44 ppp on the Pick and Roll, is because he turns it over 44% of the time on that play. On some of these plays, you shake your head and wonder if dude has ever ran the pick and roll. And it's not because players are out of position, or fumbling away passes. It's because Devin either loses the ball himself going to the hole, or gets stripped making his move, or even trying to throw a behind the back bounce pass to Anthony Tolliver at the 3 point arc. Defensively, he's not much better, especially when talking about defending the 3 point line. Some of this isn't his fault though, because when he plays the 2, taller 2 guards are simply shooting right over top of him, even if he challenges the shot. Other times though, he's simply lost in the play, leaving his man wide open, or not closing out on a shooter well. He's making it easy for Drew to choose between He, Lou, and Teague. He hasn't had a double figure scoring game, nor more than 4 assists in a game all year.

Kyle Korver We all know what Kyle is. He's a 3 point specialist that will take about 55% of his shots from 3 point range. And to be more specific on offense, he's going to have 3 shot types Spot Up . . . 38.8% of his shots . . . 33.3% FG . . . 0.87 ppp Off Screen . 23.8% of his shots . . . 47.1% FG . . . 1.11 ppp Transition . . 22.5% of his shots . . . 64.7% FG . . . 1.78 ppp And let's focus on the transition opportunities for a minute. He's shooting 71% from three point range in transition, making 10 of his 14 threes off the break. Teague is doing a really good job in finding Korver when he gets the ball and pushes it up the court. He's not out of control and is actively looking for Korver, who shoots it as soon as he catches it from Teague ( or Josh on some plays ). Overall defensively, Korver has been ( dare I say it . . ) stellar on defense. Opponents are only shooting 32% FG against him. They are also only shooting 4 - 24 ( 17% ) from 3 when he's guarding them. I don't know if people are really noticing it during games, but he really closes out hard on jumpshooters. In the past, guys like Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and sometimes Josh Smith were notorious for weak closeouts on 3 point shooters. But you can tell that Thibodeau in Chicago really stressed this to Korver. No such thing as "hand down, man down" with Kyle.

The only indication of that we can see about Horford, is via 82games.com. I'm glad they're updating their site a little more frequently than in year's past. Al Horford Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production at PF 22.4 ppg ( on 17.7 shots ) 12 rpg 3.5 asst 2.3 turnovers 53.3% eFG% . . ( 36% inside FG% ) PER: 18.8 Al Horford Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production at C 16.5 ppg ( on 11.8 shots ) 18.5 rebs 4.1 asst 4.1 turnovers 54.1% eFG% . . ( 59% inside FG% ) PER: 18.8 The good thing about Al, is that despite these bad man defensive numbers, he's slightly outperforming the PF or C he's going up against. So while his defense could be much better, he isn't killing us either. The same can be said about Smith, in the opposite way. He's playing bad offensively, but his defense has been good as ever so far this year, no matter where he plays. So even when he's having a poor game, it's not like the guy he's guarding is going off on him.

Great confidence in the data? The data is what it is. Why wait until Christmas to toss out what the data is currently showing about the Hawks? If anything, showing what the team is doing right now, may illustrate how some players got better or regressed as the season wore on. If that's the case, why would any of these stat sites like Hoopdata, Synergy, or 82games put out their numbers this early in the season? It's my suspicion that if Josh were playing great, you'd have little if any problem with the stats showing how great he is. Josh has plenty of time to get back to the player we know him to be. I honestly don't expect him to play this bad offensively the rest of the year, so I'll track this to see which areas of his game improved throughout the year.

Lou Williams This was a quote from Lou back in August when questions were being asked about his role: “I was off the ball [in Philadelphia], I would prefer to be off the ball, and I think both of those guys [Teague and Harris] are on the ball,” Williams said. “So I don’t think it will be an issue as much as people think it is. Once we open up camp I’m sure Coach [Larry] Drew will do a good job in figuring out where everyone is going to go…. “More attacking than catch-and-shoot,” Williams said. “Actually catch-and-shoot is one of the things I’ve been able to work on this whole summer. Coming down in transition and catching the ball and shooting, instead of catching and trying to create so much off the dribble.” So let's see if anything has changed for Lou since he's left Philly Top 5 shot types in 2011 - 12: P&R Ball Handler . . 29.6% of shots . . . 41.1% FG . . . 0.94 ppp Isolation . . . . . . . . . 18.2% of shots . . . 36% FG . . . . 0.90 ppp Transition . . . . . . . . 12.8% of shots . . . 49% FG . . . . 1.20 ppp Spot Up . . . . . . . . . 11.9% of shots . . . 34.4% FG . . . 0.96 ppp So far this season P&R Ball Handler . . . 48.1% of shots . . . 34% FG . . . 0.76 ppp Transition . . . . . . . . . 13.7% of shots . . 54.5% FG . . 1.11 ppp Isolation . . . . . . . . . . 13% of shots . . . 26.7% FG . . 0.65 ppp Spot Up . . . . . . . . . . 9.9% of shots . . . 36.4% FG . . 1.15 ppp Don't worry Lou. Drew is going to make SURE that you're off the ball ( if ever ), judging by the early returns. And we can't afford to have you off the ball anyway, seeing how you're like the only legit guy on the team who can create his own shot off the dribble and get a jumpshot ( even if the shooting is kinda off right now ). The one thing I don't like seeing from Lou so far, are all of the 3 point shots he's taking out of the Pick and Roll. He's 5 - 23 FG when he's taking a 3 off the Pick and Roll as the ball handler. Those 23 threes represent 49% of his total shots out of this type of play ( compared to 23% of of those shots being threes ). And most of these are flat out terrible shots. It's the kind of crap that I used to despise about Jamal Crawford, when he used to jack those same type of shots up even when ice cold. Just take better shots Lou. Or use your foul drawing skills to get to the line.

I'll do some of the rest either late tonight or tomorrow.

Jeff Teague Teague is having success because he's finally handling the ball a lot often, and he's making plays in his comfort areas. The turning point for Teague as a player, is if he can start getting some foul calls when he drives to the hole. He got hit last night on a drive in which he made a basket, and the referee made a "play on" soccer type of gesture when Jeff gave him that "you didn't call THAT foul" face. Over 50% FG for Jeff this season, because he's not trying to do things he has no business doing. He's basically only taking 3 types of shots. P&R Ball Handler . . . 43% of shots . . . 51.3% FG . . . 0.85 ppp Transition . . . . . . . . 20.3% of shots . . 61.1% FG . . . 1.15 ppp Isolation . . . . . . . . . 17.2% of shots . . . 33.3% FG . . . 0.68 ppp Quick note about Teague's poor shooting in isolation. Almost ALL of those misses are coming with either the shot clock or game clock in a quarter below 5 seconds. In essence, what used to be the times in which JJ would have the ball with the clock running down, has now been transferred to Teague. Teague's funky release on his jumper does not enable him to simply rise up over his man and shoot over top of him. Teague needs space. The Synergy video clips either show him trying to force a drive past his man, or do a lot of charge then step back dribbles to create enough space to get his shot off. The other thing are the turnovers in the pick and roll, which came to a head in the Sacramento game. He's turning the ball over on 25% of his P&R plays. To me though, these are the perils and growing pains of being the main ball handler. He has never had that role on this team until this year, so he does need time ( and minutes ) to play through any mistakes he's making right now.

(( Note: I'm not trying to do every player, and I may only get through one or two more today. But I will try to do a lot more tomorrow, since I have the day off. )) Al Horford I've said from the offseason that what may happen sometime later this year, is a power struggle between Horford and Smith as to who is truly "the man" on the team. What I didn't anticipate is Jeff Teague also possibly being in that mix, along with Lou Williams ( who has become our ISO-LOU in the 4th quarters of games ). But Horford so far has been pretty good. His usage is up to 20.7% so far, which would represent the 1st time ever that he's getting 20% usage. But should it be even more? Al's top 5 shot types this year Post Up . . . . . 22.6% of shots . . . 50% FG . . . 0.96 ppp Cut . . . . . . . . 19.4% of shots . . . 66.7% FG . . 1.29 ppp Spot Up . . . . . 15.3% of shots . . . 17.6% FG . . 0.37 ppp P&R Roll Man . 12.9% of shots . . . 50% FG . . . 1.06 ppp Transition . . . . 9.7% of shots . . . . 90% FG . . . 1.50 ppp - The days of thinking of Al as a strictly midrange scorer are gone . . at least for now. He's posting up more than ever, and is receiving the ball more on cuts to the basket. He's really doing a solid job with scoring the basketball in the paint. The question now is . . should he be getting the ball even more? The early numbers suggest that answer is yes. - LOL @ 17.6% FG on his spot up jumpers. I thought that was definitely a misprint. But looking at what Synergy calls a spot up jumper, he has missed a lot of them. And the majority of the misses came in the Sacramento and LA Clipper game. - The jumpers we DO see Horford make, mainly comes from the pick and roll, and a few off screens and in isolation. When the spot up jumpers start to fall again, this may do one or two things. He may start to settle for that shot a lot more, and not go inside. Or it may add to his offensive arsenal, and make him a more explosive scorer. If that happens, and Josh continues to shoot poorly, look for Horford to see HIMSELF as "the man", instead of Josh. - Defensively, people have been scoring pretty easily on Al. People are posting him up 44% of the time, and shooting 54% FG. Blake Griffin and David West did major damage against Al in these situations. On Spot Ups, which represents 32% of the shots Al defends against, opponents are shooting a whopping 59% FG on him. It looks like quicker PFs are having their way with him so far.

Josh Smith The thing that people have complained for years, is that Josh Smith shoots too many jumpers. We all know that he is struggling this year. But WHY is he struggling? I cited my suspicion as to why I thought he was struggling in that Hawks - Magic thread, ( along with the fact that he is feeling the pressure of being "the man" ). And my suspicion is completely backed up by Synergy. This is Josh's top 5 shot type breakdown from last season, along with the percent that he took that shot amongst all shots, the percentage he shot from the field on that shot, and his point per play on that shot. Spot Up . . . 25.3% of shots . . . 36% FG . . . 0.81 ppp Post Up . . . 19.3% of shots . . . 39% FG . . . 0.81 ppp Isolation . . . 14% of shots . . . 38.7% FG . . . 0.80 ppp Transition . . 13.1% of shots . . 70.5% FG . . . 1.14 ppp Cut . . . . . . . 9.1% of shots . . . 67% FG . . . . 1.32 ppp This is his top 5 shot type breakdown so far this year: ( current through last night's game ) Post Up . . . 26.8% of shots . . . 38.9% FG . . . 0.66 ppp Spot Up . . . 22% of shots . . . . . 22.2% FG . . . 0.50 ppp Cut . . . . . . . 14% of shots . . . . 45% FG . . . . 0.83 ppp Isolation . . . 10.4% of shots . . . 25% FG . . . . 0.59 ppp Transition . . . 7.9% of shots . . . 88.9% FG . . . 1.31 ppp A few things stand out to me: - Only 8% of his shots come in transition, which is a direct result of us not getting out and running. My suspicion is also that our guards are running the fast break looking to score on their own. I'm assuming this to be the case when I look at Teague's Synergy stats. - The set shot jumper is completely broken so far this year. And that includes his FTs. The sign that he may get out of this horrendous shooting slump, is when he starts to make his FTs. But even 22% FG on spot ups for Josh Smith is way below his normal bad shooting. - He's posting more and shooting a slightly higher percentage on his post up shots . . but is scoring less per play. Why? That's easy . . . the turnover rate ( which is 13.6% on this shot, compared to 6.7% last year )

Yeah we would be happy, because there has not been a single player in the history of the NBA who has done that. That stat line would truly make Smith a "5 tool" player. For all the people that acted like Joe Johnson didn't make people better on this team, you're definitely seeing this in Josh Smith. Because more times than not, it was JJ who was finding Josh for easy baskets in transition or for wide open jumpshots. The other thing with Josh is that he would score in transition sometimes, when he kept the ball himself and went coast to coast. Of course when he did that, you don't know what kind of a play he would make at times. Without JJ here, all of those easy baskets he used to get are gone. He now has to work for those baskets in the halfcourt offense . . and it just isn't his game. So even though he's posting up more and taking more shots closer to the rim, it isn't resulting in better offense for him. Add to the fact that he's in a horrible FT slump, it's not making it any better.