TheNorthCydeRises

Win total of the #8 team in the East since 2004 - 05 ( when Josh Smith came into the league )2005: New Jersey ( 42 )2006: Milwaukee ( 40 )2007: Orlando ( 40 )2008: Atlanta ( 37 )2009: Detroit ( 39 )2010: Chicago ( 41 )2011: Indiana ( 37 )2012: Philadelphia ( 43* ) . . . . adjusted to an 82 game season. They won 53% of their games last year and won 35 gamesAverage number of wins to get that #8 seed: approx 40 winsThis is actually hard to call. If the Hawks struggle right out the gate, it's not like we're going to make some blockbuster trade to improve the team. Ferry could very easily ride the bad season out, and get as good of a draft pick as possible. On the flip side, if we're round 6 - 8th in the East for the entire year, Ferry could do "tweak trade" . . or even pull the trigger on a Josh Smith or Jeff Teague trade that brings in a better player(s).I like watching my sports teams in the playoffs. I don't like watching the NBA Draft Lottery in May. So I'll say that the Hawks get that 8th seed, with a 39 - 43 record. The West is still extremely strong, while the East is top heavy strong. The Hawks don't win 45 or more games, unless Horford or Smith really elevate their games. It's going to be up to them to keep us at playoff level, because I doubt most of the new additions will have that kind of impact.

But he's not even a better player than Vladimir Radmanovic.

Donta Smith rolling over in his grave right now.Tolliver's stats last season17 minutes of play4.1 pts3.0 rebs39% FG25% 3FG ( which means that Josh Smith was a slightly better 3 point shooter last year )75% FTBest season was in 2010 - 11, in which he averaged almost 7 points and 4.5 rebs in 21 minutes. More important, is that he shot 41% 3FG that season. For his career, he's a 32% 3FG shooter.Synergy numbers show that his favorite shot was the Spot Up jumper, in which 43.9% of his shots came of that variety. The problem? He shot WOEFUL 24.7% FG on those shots, and an even worse 22.1% from 3 point range, on that shot.Yeah flexibility.

It's not just a size issue either. It's size AND talent that we're lacking all of a sudden now. And here's the REAL problem. Even when other teams go and play "small ball", this is the type of lineup they can throw at us. MIAMI ( PG ) Chalmers - ( G ) Wade - ( F ) Allen - ( PF ) Lebron - ( C ) Bosh BOSTON ( PG ) Rondo - ( G ) Terry - ( F ) J. Green - ( PF ) Pierce - ( C ) Garnett BROOKLYN ( PG ) Deron - ( G ) Brooks - ( F ) Johnson - ( PF ) Wallace - ( C ) Lopez CHICAGO ( PG ) M. Teague - ( G ) Rose - ( F ) Hamilton - ( PF ) Deng - ( C ) Noah PHILADELPHIA ( who is all of a sudden an extremely big team now, even when "small" ) ( PG ) Holliday - ( G ) N. Young - ( F ) Turner - ( PF ) T. Young - ( C ) Bynum INDIANA ( PG ) Augustin - ( G ) Hill - ( F ) George - ( PF ) Granger - ( C ) Hibbert NY KNICKS ( PG ) Felton - ( G ) Kidd - ( F ) JR Smith - ( PF ) Melo - ( C ) Amare We may have "cap flexibility" these days, but our "lineup flexibility" is completely GONE now. When teams decided to post up their big guard against a Lou Williams or Devin Harris . . or teams go the opposite way, and use their quick guard/foward to attack Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow . . Drew is going have to make some tough decisions on who to play or not play. Fans think that we can just throw a bunch of shooters into the game, and outshoot everybody. Well, that strategy has almost NEVER worked in this league, unless you have a dominant low post player that teams also have to account for. Can't wait for preseason to start in 2 1/2 weeks. I really want to see how this team operates, and how Smith and Horford are going to be used. I think my first look of the Hawks, will actually be in "enemy territory" when they go to Memphis on Oct 14th.

Colin is a good writer. But some of the reasons why people should like the Hawks . . . are Ivan and Zaza? That's actually kinda bad. If some of the main reasons to like the Hawks are the reserve role players, then we won't get many people to start liking this team, outside of those who already follow the team. This is almost along the lines of . . "a fans should root for the Kings because they have Chuck Hayes, or root for the Nets, because they have Reggie Evans.We honestly need Horford or Smith to take their games to the next level, so people would want to come see THEM, instead of our reserves for 10 - 20 minutes a game.

I thought you guys were satisfied with Kyle Korver, Anthony Morrow and Damion James?We have 3 SFs. Ferry probably won't make another move to get one, seeing that training camp starts in about a week.

Drew is in the last year of his 3 year contract. I think he's only making 2 mill this season. As for your story, I hope the Hawks wouldn't trade for anyone on the Raptors, but Ferry may covet that draft pick. Also, if Ferry has free reign over the basketball decisions, then the past modus opperendi of the Hawks is thrown out the window. Ferry may very well try to purge everything the Hawks have done the past 7 years, and want to completely remake the team in his image. We'll see.

Final review of the Hawks #NBA Rank . . ( possible projected starters in BOLD ) #30 - Al Horford #31 - Josh Smith #88 - Lou Williams #108 - Devin Harris #109 - Jeff Teague #186 - Kyle Korver #196 - Anthony Morrow #223 - Zaza Pachulia #312 - Ivan Johnson #319 - Deshawn Stevenson #397 - Johan Petro #398 - John Jenkins #424 - James Anderson . . ( not sure how likely he is to make the team though ) #439 - Damion James #457 - Jordan Williams #481 - Mike Scott ******** With no superstar on the team, we need our top 6 or 7 players to play at the highest level possible, to be a playoff team. And with the way the team is constructed, I don't see how we can't avoid starting Josh Smith at SF. I just hope he's more of a passer and transition player at that position, than a primary scorer in the halfcourt.

Think of it like this AHF. IF I remember correctly, you're a hardcore Kentucky basketball fan. Whom do you consider your "rival" in the SEC? Florida maybe? But for the rest of the conference, Kentucky is either their #1 or #2 rival. Even if Kentucky fans don't consider a game vs Vandy as a "rivalry game", you better believe that Vandy fans view that game as such. So do Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina. And it doesn't matter that UK has pretty much dominated those teams in the past 10 or so years.

If the Hawks made either of those top 2 trades, I'd be highly disappointed. We're almost better off keeping Josh, if those are the deals on the table. There will be better deals out there, once the trade deadline approaches, and playoff caliber teams come knocking on our door, wanting an impact defensive forward who is great in transition.

It'll be interesting if ESPN's rank has all 3 in the same order. Right now, they're at #34, but it's a guarantee that both Josh Smith and Joe Johnson will be 2 of the next 4 selections. They have both of their pics up on the main NBA page when discussing the 31 - 40 rankings, and they haven't been listed yet. So the question now is if they still rank Horford a top 30 player? He was #25 last year.

A funny and much better write-up by Colin concerning Deshawn. No sense in having little if any expectations for end of the bench scrubs like Deshawn.His defensive statistics do indicate that he could be put into a game as a spot defender when we need a stop. He was actually a better defender at SG last year than he was at SF. So Maybe if the Hawks need a stop at the end of a game, they go with this lineupPG: TeagueG: StevensonF: SmithPF: IvanC: HorfordAt best, Deshawn is Royal Ivey 2.0, in which he may actually be the starter in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Ivey started 66 games in the 05 - 06 season, but only averaged 13 minutes a game. Instead of starting defensive liabilities, but talented offensive shooters in Tyronn Lue and Salim Stoudamire, Woody opted to start Ivey at the point ( for defensive purposes only ). It's not like that move made the Hawks a better team though. Ivey's defensive prowess was overrated, and he couldn't slow down good PGs either.Add Stevenson to the "I hope we can use him in a trade package to bring in a real good player" group. Don't let him get hurt before the trade deadline.Petro + Stevenson + Harris = 14+ million in salary.If the Harris experiment isn't working, maybe the Hawks could swing a deal involving him and those 2 scrubs, and bring in a player of "need" and an expiring contract. Or make a bigger splash and bring in a guy who was supposed to be the "star" of a bad team, but the team has given up on him and want to get rid of his contract.

But what if that tall player is useless, or doesn't at least have one "decent" skill to bring to the table? Why keep that player around? I will agree with thecampster in that Petro's REAL value to the Hawks, is his 3.5 mill expiring contract, and that he could possibly be packaged with someone ( cough ) Devin Harris ( cough ) to bring in a real nice starting quality type talent. Just keep Petro off the floor so he won't get hurt before the trade deadline.

Like I said in the other thread . . . If that guy got playing time here, something would've been horribly wrong with Zaza and/or Ivan.With this team as constructed, both Ivan and Zaza should be seeing at minimum 16 minutes a game. No need for Jordan to even be on the roster at that point, especially when we need depth at SF.This enables the Hawks to keep both Damion James and James Anderson if need be.The next move should be to cut Petro's sorry butt.

Well at least Horford and Smith will be in the top 50. But let's see if one of them turns up in the next 10 selections tomorrow.

Two major omissions from the OP's list are Stephen Curry, who is definitely a top 10 PG when healthy . . and Kyrie Irving, who is the absolute truth. I don't think Teague could make this play with the game on the line. Rose ( when healthy )PaulDeronWestbrookRondoNashIrvingCurryParkerLawsonKyrie especially has a chance to be truly special. Depending on the health of Derrick Rose, he has an outside shot to make the All-Star game.

Haha. I would love to see Drew handle that type of rotation. He would have to sub someone out the game every 2 - 3 minutes

Right. Cause when Lopez went down, he opted to play Petro and Williams to replace him. Oops . . no he didn't. He opted to play SHELDEN WILLLIAMS. LOL . . why do you think Boston sign Jason Collins, despite him being a "useless non-offensive stat stuffer"? If what he brings to the table as a guy who defends low post scorers isn't a "sought after talent" in the NBA, why did 2 playoff teams ( us last year and Boston this year ) sign him in consecutive years? This will definitely be my last post on this, because I'm definitely not arguing with you tonight over 3 scrub centers. So here . . I'll give you want you want, since you think it is so significant in this discussion Total defensive possessions Petro - 198 Williams - 149 Collins - 97 . . ( 24 vs Kevin Garnett ) Points Per Defensive Possession Collins - 0.78 . . ( held KG to 0.75 ppp ) Petro - 0.92 Williams - 0.99 Defensive FG% Collins - 36.8% Petro - 43.5% Williams - 44.7% Collins has made 32 ( soon to be 33 million dollars over his NBA career ), simply because he's a big guy who can play post defense vs good post players. Those NBA teams obviously valued Collins' ability to defend "that one guy when they need him to do it". Maybe those teams place more value on defense ( even timely defense ), than you do. We'll see how many people are singing the slight praises of Petro or Williams once the season comes.

Wow . . . so a guy who was picked up off the street and has only played in 32 games as a pro, becomes the STARTER in ATL. That's not good folks. I'm against starting Smith at SF, but we may have no choice. And Lou Williams is 6 - 1. So we can't start 6 - 2 Teague and 6 - 1 Williams to begin games. Even Steph Curry and Monta Ellis in Golden St in previous years were both 6 - 3. It would be unfair to ask either Teague or Williams to start out a game guarding Dwyane Wade or Joe Johnson to start the game. Jenkins is bigger than all of them, and probably should start the game at the 2. At least by doing that, we can ease him in and see what he can do with better players around him, than to force him to possibly be a scorer on the 2nd unit. Teague ( 32 ) - Harris ( 8 ) - Williams ( 8 ) Jenkins ( 16 ) - Williams ( 20 ) - Harris ( 12 ) Smith ( 20 ) - Korver ( 16 ) - Morrow ( 12 ) Horford ( 18 ) - Smith ( 16 ) - Ivan ( 14 ) Zaza ( 26 ) - Horford ( 18 ) - Petro/Williams ( 4 ) And even that rotation can be significantly cut down, with us simply going with 9 guys. But I'd rather try to see if Jenkins can give us something right out of the gate, and give us a little size at the 2 spot, than to throw 2 PGs out there to start games. Save the 2 PG look for the end of games, or when we need them to exploit matchups.

And that one player is one of the best post player of the past 15 years ( even at his "old age" ). But like I said, it wouldn't matter if Collins' possessions came against one player, or against 20 players. Because had those 24 possessions came against Kevin Seraphin, Johan Petro, Omer Asik, Eddy Curry, and Bismack Biyombo, you'd make the case that those guys aren't offensively good enough, and that Collins' defense against them would be moot. So forget the fact that in 1/4 of his defensive possessions he went up against one of the best post scorers in the NBA, and limited his production significantly. Nope . . throw that completely out, because that came in a span of the 4 games Collins played vs Boston. The real question is, what does Petro and Williams upgrade? What is the one thing that you can say that they bring to the table, that can help the Hawks in ANY situation? At least with Collins, there is definitive evidence that shows that if you play him against a big man that scores in or around the paint, that he can limit his production. What can Petro and Williams do in ANY small situation, that could impact a game as much as Collins' post defense against an All-Star caliber post player?

Probably not even on the team. I don't know if he's on a guaranteed contract or not, but people need to keep in mind that he's been hurt the past 2 years, and has only played in 32 games. We really don't know what he can do on the NBA level, or if he's even good enough to be on an NBA roster Possible guys who can play the 3 - Smith - Korver - Morrow - Stevenson - James - Anderson Possible guys who can play the 2 - Harris - Jenkins - Williams - Stevenson - Morrow We know the Hawks have to cut somebody. I'd probably bet that if James does make the team, he'll be sent to the D-League to develop his skills. He won't be one of the 13 guys who dresses out in the rotation, unless Ferry cuts one of the veteran guys like Stevenson or Morrow.

And despite those numbers vs KG, and vs other low post scoring big men, Collins isn't an ideal guy to start every game ( or even play every game ). And that is because most teams don't run offense through a stud post player like KG, or Bynum, or Dwight Howard. Collins is a scrub, because when he's going up against a center who isn't a focal point of the offense, and only focuses on offensive rebounding, Collins can't keep those types of guys off the offensive boards because he is so slow. And he has almost no chance of blocking or even deterring a shot when a small guard darts into the lane toward the rim.Collins is like a big blocking fullback you put in on goal line or short yardage situations. He'll make that key block in order for the RB to get that 1st down or touchdown, but he's no where good enough to even put on the field for any other situation BUT that type of play.Petro and Williams are guys who may "look" like they can make the block, but will occasionally miss the block, or not put a good enough block on the defender in order for the RB to get that yardage.

Whether I cite the numbers or not, it's not going to matter. You'll just speak against anything I type anyway. Your assertion of Collins not having as many plays as the other guys, as a reason to dismiss his defensive numbers, can go either way. Even when Collins got more defensive plays in 2010 - 11 than both Petro and Williams did in 2011 - 12, his defensive numbers overall were still better. Anybody who has watched Jason Collins knows that the only reason why he's been able to stay in the league ( and even get a Mid-Level contract at one point in his career ), is because he can defend big centers or low post scorers in certain situations. That still doesn't make Collins any more than a scrub big man, which is exactly what Williams and Petro are. Williams and Petro were two of the worst defending big men in the league last year. One interesting thing though. Of all of Collins' defensive possessions last year, 25% of them came against Kevin Garnett, which occurred during the playoffs. 24 possessions - 8 - 21 FG for 16 points - 2 turnovers - 1 shooting foul ( in which KG made both FTs ) So that's 18 points on 24 possessions against one of the best Post and Mid-Range shooting big men in the NBA. That's 38% FG shooting for Garnett at a 0.75 points per possession clip. (( shrugs ))

Have you bothered to realize that the only reason why a guy like Jordan Williams got any time in the first place, was because Brooke Lopez was hurt? And Petro was one of Rick Sund's infamous big man 1st round picks while in Seattle. Collins defensive abilities are the only reason why he's still in the league. He had success vs Kevin Garnett in the playoffs when KG tried to post him up. Not so much when KG decided to simply shoot over top of him from 15+ feet. So it's not surprising that Boston snatches him up as a scrub big man to play in certain situations ( namely against Dwight Howard and probably Andrew Bynum ). The point per possession numbers that Collins posted last year, is simply indicative of what he's known for. Not because of the number of possessions he received. And when a player is limited like he is, the coach ( hopefully ) won't put him up against people he can't guard effectively. Jordan Williams wasn't a garbage center in college. He would bang the offensive boards and could finish well at the rim when he got a pass. But he had little to no post game, and his defense was sorely lacking. That's why he wasn't a 1st round pick.

If Jordan is getting minutes, something has gone horribly wrong with Zaza or Ivan. Or the Hawks are trying to play Horford full time at PF...... which means that Smith is seeing significant minutes at SF.