REHawksFan

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

No. 46 wins on 82 games 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/hawks/

The minute distribution seems way off on this, no?  I cannot imagine a scenario where Gallo and Hunter only play 17 minutes per game as they are projecting.  Cam gets 20 min a game?  And Kris Dunn gets no run?  Something is off there.   

4 minutes ago, aali34 said:

Is it based on 82 games?

No. 72 games. They are projecting 35-37 as the record.  I think if Hunter and Cam take a step forward in year two, this team will be in the 42-45 win range.  

10 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-player-projections/

Projecting the Hawks at 35 wins.  Seems kinda low to me.  If Hunter and Reddish take a year 2 bump, I'm thinking 42-45 wins is realistic.  

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

I already know the one with the extremely low wing metrics from last year is the Hawks. Hunter and Reddish were abysmal when it came to advanced metrics. The only positive is Hunter was better at team metrics and Reddish was a near positive in impact metrics. 

Then again I know why Campster didn't want to use them. Because anyone can see with these first two preseason games that our rookies are much better than expected.

Yep.  But how much better do you think Team A is than Team B?  5 games?  10 games?  If you can get Hunter and Reddish to give similar outputs as their counterparts on Team A, the overall, imo, would be Team B similar to or just barely worse than Team A.  

BTW....any idea who Team A is?  

I'm a fan of blind comparisons because it takes some of the bias and subjectivity out of the analysis.  Here's a little chart I put together comparing two teams (one is the Hawks obviously) with previous season stats.  I thought this might be a fun exercise to go through. We can use it to project which team looks to be better and by how much.  I did it on a player by player basis for the 2-deep.  What do y'all think?  

The stats are per 100 possessions btw.  

The thing that jumps off the page to me when I look at this chart....is how much the Hawks need to get more from the wings in order to really compete and compare favorably to this other team.  

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Unless I'm reading the numbers wrong and overlooking someone, I don't think anyone in NBA history has averaged 15 apg.

Only one player in history has averaged 14+ apg in a season and it has only happened in two NBA seasons.

There are only 8 seasons of a player averaging 13+ apg in a season (Magic's career high of 13.06 barely squeaks past that mark).

Only 5 players in NBA history have averaged 12+ apg.

12+ seems more realistic to me but 5 players and 17 seasons isn't exactly a common occurrence.  

I'm a big believer in Trae and his special passing was the first thing he proved as an NBA but let's not start putting too much on his shoulders.  Trae has better teammates but won't be able to dominate the ball to the same extent this season.  

I'll be happy to see 25 and 10 or something with equal or better scoring efficiency and improved A/TO ratio especially if that comes with materially better defense.

All about efficiency for me.  With the way Trae gets to the line, there's no reason he can't average 28-30 pts on 17-18 shots imo.  He just needs to increase his efficiency a little and control his shot selection. I break it down like this:

Shot Distribution

FTs - 10 attempts per game at 90% = 9.0 pts

2pt - 9 att/gm at 55% = 4.95 makes or 9.9 pts

3pt - 9 att/gm at 40% = 3.6 makes or 10.8 pts

Total - 8.55 fgm on18 fga or 47.5% overall = 29.7 pts

As for assists, with the higher caliber players around the rim and on the perimeter, I don't see why he can't increase his assists by 3-4 per night, even with a lower usage.  That would put him around 12-13 per night.  So for me, I think 30 / 13 is doable (aggressive but doable) even with a lower usage and within the confines of the offense IF he can be more efficient with his shot selection.  

57 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

It would be nice but I can't see it.  I can't see the Luka fanatics EVER giving props to Trae.     Magic / Bird seemed like it was always a mutual admiration thing even with the fans.  

I think the only way it happens is if the two teams match up in the playoffs and produce an epic series.  Both teams would seemingly be set up for long term, continued success so if they were to meet in the playoffs once, we could surmise it could happen again.  Thus a rivalry born. 

Of course, if Atl / Dal DO meet in the playoffs I'd be less concerned with the potential of a rivalry forming and more concerned that the world was about to end since my beloved was actually playing in the NBA Finals.  I'm pretty sure it's like the 3rd sign of the Apocalypse or something. 

2 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

These additions only work if Trae is aggressive as a scorer. He must keep the killer instinct so that things open up for everyone else.

He can still set the stage for his teammates, but he needs to force the opponent to adjust to him first and foremost. If he starts self checking himself by getting rid of the ball early just so the other 4 guys can play hot potato with the ball, then we aren't scaring anybody on the court.

Make them respect option #1 and then go from there.

I agree with this. Even with the new additions, teams would much rather take their chances with the other 4 players on the court playing hot potato as you say than with Trae doing his thing. This is still his team and they need it to run through him, not around him.  He needs to stay aggressive and involved.  

Call me old school but Boston is always THE rival.  I understand the thought that they don't look at us as a rival, but that's just because we haven't beaten them in any meaningful way yet.  But then, we haven't beaten anyone really.  So I go back to who I hate the most and that becomes the rival.  So it's Boston at the top for me. 

In terms of who the team considers their "rival," I would agree that it probably hasn't been established yet.  So maybe we go divisional and say Miami or Orlando or Washington.  But with the way the NBA does scheduling and with player movement so prevalent, there just doesn't seem to be any natural rivalries like Braves vs rest of NL East or Falcons vs Saints. 

If they played more often you could almost go with Hawks / Mavs as rivals due to the Trae / Luka connection, but even though the fanbases don't seem to like the other, the players seem to genuinely like one another so that kind of takes the sting out of it.  

On 12/11/2020 at 8:43 PM, kg01 said:

Maybe give it one regular season game before the panic.  At least one.  Cmon, people are gonna stop taking you seriously if you keep this up. 

Already there. Just roll the eyes every time [someone impatient] posts. 

Cam looks WAY more confident even early on than he did last year. 

These dudes look like they ain't played in 9 months. It'll come though. Question is how quickly?

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

ESPN is gonna have a lot of egg on their face with Luka this year. I'll laugh my ass off if they aren't even a play-in team and the Knicks get a top 10 pick off of them. 

Lack of shooting

Bad health from zinger

They've put A LOT on Luka's shoulders and I'm not convinced he can consistently shoot well enough from outside to make up for the losses.  I guess we'll see.   

30 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Official list

 

10) Jokic

9) Harden

8 ) Curry

7) Lillard

6) Durant

 

5) Kawhi

4) That dude in Dallas

3) Giannis

2) Davis

1)

 

LOL.....yeah.  I don't think I got a single one correct.  But I'll take my list over theirs.  No way in hayull AD is the 2nd best player in the world.  

Now that 50-11 are out, we know the Top 10.  I'll take a shot at the order:

10. Anthony Davis

9. Nicola Jokic 

8. Steph Curry

7. Luka Doncic

6. Dame Lilliard

5. James Harden

4. Kawhi Leonard

3. Kevin Durant

2. LeBron James

1. Giannis Antentakumpo

That's how I'd rank them anyway.  

EDIT:  I put Butler in when it should have been Joker

1 hour ago, kelston827 said:

First, I loved the off-season moves and am as excited about Hawks basketball as I have been in a long time.

Second, I do expect them to exceed even the already “high” expectations of taking the next step to the playoffs. I think we’re better than Indy. And call me crazy, but I see Philly and / or Miami falling off this year.

All of that said, we can’t compete with Raptors or Celtics or Bucks. Is there a move that doesn’t kill our depth but still puts us in a better spot for a shot at the title? How about Harden for Hunter, Okungwu, Huerter, 1st? Would expect Rockets to demand Cam, but I wouldn’t make that deal. I would, however, not think twice about trading Hunter, Huerter, 1st. Losing Okungwu hurts, no doubt. But you don’t acquire someone like Harden without giving up talent.

Thoughts? I just don’t see us competing for a title, even with the recent improvements, without more.

Gonna be a hard pass for me. I'm not willing to give up on this group before they've even played a single game.  While they aren't winning a title this year, I'm not so sure they couldn't down the line. 

 Only Eastern teams with 3 players ranked 51-100 are Heat (ranked 75, 59, and 58) and Hawks (85, 84, 62).  Will be interested to see if Hawks add 1 or 2 more. Also want to see how they stack up verse the rest of the East. 

Others:

Nets - 2 (100, 94) should add 2 or 3 more

76ers - 2 (91, 57) should add 2 more

Pacers - 2 (74, 63) should add 1 more

Pistons - 2 (88, 65) should add 0 more

Bulls - 2 (98, 56) should add 0 more

Knicks - 1 (92) should add 1? more

Bucks - 1 (86) should add 3 more

Magic - 1 (81) should add 0 more

Raps - 1 (68) should add 3 more

Cavs - 1 (64) should add 0 more

Bullets - 1 (61) should add 2 more

Celtics - None should add 3 or 4

Hornets - None should add 1 or 2

Based on this breakdown, maybe Rondo was right.  The East is light this year.  I'm guessing we see anywhere from 42-46 East players in the Top 100.  Hawks should have 4, imo. 

8 hours ago, thecampster said:

25. @ Chi

17. @ Mem

27. vs Det

6. @ BKN

6. @ BKN

30. vs CLE

28. vs NY

23. vs CHA

23. @ CHA

If the Hawks are for real, one could easily see 8-2 or 7-3 from an easy opening schedule and no West Coast trip to start the season. The only back to back is BKN/CLE.

The schedule doesn't stiffen until Jan 11 vs PHI. For once we start the year with an easier schedule (on paper).

 

Numbers are start of the year power rankings. Hawks are ranked 16th per NBC sports Darren Hartwell. https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/2020-nba-power-rankings-how-all-30-teams-stack-after-free-agency?int

 

I know I'm biased cuz I absolutely HATE them, but I just don't see the Boston love. 

With Kemba hurt to start the year they will be going with Jeff Teague at the point. Their starters are JT, Smart, Tatum, Brown, and Tristan Thompson.  Their bench is nothing special either. I just don't see it. At least not 2nd in the east. 

On 11/20/2020 at 5:59 PM, NBASupes said:

Sign all three guys. 

Gallo

Rondo

BB, rfa

3 for 3.  Not bad Supes.  But did you predict signing Dunn as well?   

13 minutes ago, Diesel said:

On Yesterday, Our GM  Travis Schlenk said:

The whole quote said something about acquiring those players aggressively. 

 

My take:

Schlenk has his eye on all the belly aching going on... and he has a list of wants...prioritized.   Here's what I think is possible:

 

1.  Hawks trade for James Harden?
2. Hawks trade for Giannis?
3. Hawks trade for KAT?
4. Hawks trade for Westbrook?
5. Hawks trade for one of the Philadelphia Big 2?

Some will say:  Hawks trade for Paul George.  I think that would be a lateral move honestly.

My guess is also this:  John Collins, Cap, and Huerter, Hunter, or Cam is trade capital is something good comes our way. 

As of right now.. the only untradables on the Hawks are Trae and Bangdanovic.

 

Agree with the premise as Travis clearly leaves open the possibility of using the high quality, big contract players as trade collateral for a star player. That's what any team HAS to do to acquire a star player.  

However, your list of potential players is laughable at best outside of Giannis and maybe Embiid.  I wouldn't trade multiple players and picks for the rest of that list.  And no, I'm not saying Huerter is better than Harden.  But I'm not a believer that Harden actually makes a TEAM better.  So no thanks.  Same with Westbrook.  

The list of players I'd trade for using multiple players and picks (note, the majority of these guys are NOT actually available from their current team):

Giannis (most available via snt, imo)

LeBron (not available)

Kawhi (probably not available)

Dame (not available)

Embiid (might be available)

Zion (not available)

End list.  

15 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Although he is my least favorite NBA player, I'd love to see Trae put up Isiah Thomas type numbers from 1984 - 85

 

21.2 ppg

13.9 apg

4.0 rebs

2.3 stls

 

The steals are asking a lot from Trae, but maybe his contribution on defense will be like Allen Iverson's.  He couldn't stop anybody man to man, but he played passing lanes very well and got a ton of steals.  I'd take that defensive contribution from Trae.

From an offensive standpoint, Trae is more like Isiah, than the guys he's normally compared to ( Steph and Steve Nash ).

 

 

 

 

To me, shot attempts are far more telling than ppg. He needs to continue to improve his efficiency.  If he does that he can be at 17-18 attempts per game and still avg 28-30 ppg. That would work well within the offense given the new additions. 

If he avgs 21 ppg it will he highly disappointing because he will either be extremely inefficient OR will be limited to 13-14 att per game. That’s not how you best use your star player. 

4 hours ago, parfait said:

Couldn't the same be said for Tony Ressler?

I think they are two pretty similar owners:

emotionally, and financially, invested, and trying to find the right balance between involvement and meddling.

Not at all imo. Ressler is emotionally involved sure but I don't perceive him to be meddling in the front office decision making. He seems to have hired Travis and is letting him do his thing.