thecampster

So here we go again. Test of 863 people. We don't know the specifics but we are drawing conclusions on a population of 10 million based on a study of 863 with no idea the controls on the testing. Let me explain this for you "again". Test 863....4.1% positive means 35 tested positive. Lets assume for the moment there are flaws in the study that oversampled a community area or some other flaw. Lets say 10 false positives. Instead of 55x more cases, you now have 16x more cases. Because the sample is so low, not controlled, not yet peer reviewed, no idea who funded it, methodology, etc, as few as 10 cases could destroy the study sample. There are approximately 10 million people in the county. Meaning they are estimating 410,000 people have antibodies and some level of exposure at some level. Current results are almost 13823 cases and 619 deaths. So that actually works out to 29 times as many, not 55. You are also testing in one of least hospitable places for Covid in the country, Sunny LA, meaning they could have picked it up but in a weakened state due to sunlight and humidity. Infection in LA does not = infection representative of Detroit. Pointing to a sampling of 863 in a dense population area and trying to equate that to a country of 320 million is nonsense of the highest order. To AHF's point. You aren't getting so much push back because you are right or wrong. You are getting push back because what you are stating is dangerous. You are minimizing the threat which will lead to people acting stupid, people dying and this thing dragging out 6 months longer than need be. Three more weeks of quarantine means a great lessening of factors and greater immunity later. Lastly, this thing has a median incubation period of just over 5 days and taking as long as 2 weeks for some to present symptoms. Many people not presenting symptoms yet are still contagious. It is safe to assume that many of the 35 could have been infected but the virus was still ramping up in their bodies throwing off the numbers considerably. People taking an antibody test on April 18 could have gotten infected as early as April 6 and not be showing symptoms yet. Oh so flawed.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-covid-19-death-undercount-is-scarier-than-you-think

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it same concept as all humans are homosapien but we have different traits that cause us to be asian, african, caucasian, etc and different traits.

Read exactly what the abstract is saying, because they can't test for this strain, they tested for the greater virus as a whole. Something that has been around for 18 years.

This is why we need different test kits

different strains = different antibody tests

Okay, now let me take a crack at the Santa Clara study for a minute. 1. the study has not been under peer review yet and there is a very good reason for that....see below 2. the study participants were found using facebook ads. IE: people who were already Corona engaged were targeted and brought in for sampling. Meaning you can't trust the data as a true subset of any population. The only people who came in are people who wanted to participate, were expecting a test. 3. the people tested were in a densely populated county where infection rates would be higher. 4. Just where did the researchers get 3300 test kits for the antibodies for research purposes? Are the test kits accurate? Oh wait, they didn't. They were SARS tests. 5. In an obviously compromised study that brought in people who were interested in getting tested, it still showed only 1.5% of people showing the antibodies....for SARS. 6. It takes between 1 to 2 weeks after being infected for symptoms to present. (The incubation period). So even if they were testing for COVID 19, those infected but not presenting yet throw off the numbers. 7. Now the fun part....actually reading the abstract of the Stanford study. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 "Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County. Methods On 4/3-4/4, 2020, we tested county residents for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 using a lateral flow immunoassay. Participants were recruited using Facebook ads targeting a representative sample of the county by demographic and geographic characteristics. We report the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a sample of 3,330 people, adjusting for zip code, sex, and race/ethnicity. We also adjust for test performance characteristics using 3 different estimates: (i) the test manufacturer's data, (ii) a sample of 37 positive and 30 negative controls tested at Stanford, and (iii) a combination of both. Results The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections." Okay so in case you aren't good at reading, let me sum up. The researchers stated there was no data to go against for COVID-19. So they found the closest thing...SARS-COV-2 and tested for it. They found it in 1.5 % of participants. Then they looked at how many people in Santa Clara county actually were treated for SARS. Compared that with the number of people treated for COVID-19 and said....oh we must have this many people. I tried explaining this earlier but you swore it was a COVID-19 test. Learn to read before spreading false information. This is exactly what people like me mean when they say false news. The study didn't test for COVID-19, it extrapolated based on numbers for SARS COVID-2 testing. But lets pretend these scientist...who by the way are not supported by Stanford, it only states that some of the members are from Stanford. This isn't a Stanford official study, its funded externally and until you know who funded it, it is immediately suspect. The researchers state this later in the abstract: "Funding Statement We acknowledge many individual donors who generously supported this project with gift awards. The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study, nor in the decision to prepare and submit the manuscript for publication." Now there is a very good reason this is stated, but all research is funded by someone with ulterior motives and a well known secret in the scientific community is that if your results don't favor the desired results of the funders, you don't get more funding. That is why statements like this are added. Its a wink wink, nudge nudge to what everyone knows. The funders were looking for a specific result. So using this obviously flawed subset lets pretend 3% of the population has antibodies. Lets also pretend 50% of people would never produce antibodies and get affected. That leaves 47% of people who haven't been exposed (16x the number currently exposed) who would contract the virus if it was just allowed to spread naturally in non optimum conditions (summer). Current deaths, 40,000....estimated deaths if 16x people get it....500,000. Do I need to go on? Please stop spreading propaganda. I don't care if the Vatican published it. It is not a Covid-19 study. Its a Covid 2 study. Peoples' lives are at stake. This is why we don't need people like Biden or Trump leading this. This is why you need actual doctors, immunologists leading this. Be reasonable and rational. This isn't the 1300's. Being quarantined in 2020 is a pretty cool deal. You can stream movies, play call of duty, use a toaster or air fryer. Hell, you can even have food delivered to your door, prepared to your liking. When all of this began, I was very clear in my opinion. People would die and we need to face that first. After realizing all that entails, we need to work to minimize the social, economic impacts and reduce the total impact in terms of deaths. Opening early based on a biased study that implies Covid-19 rates based on Covid-2 testing is asinine. You've already done the hard part in quarantining for a month. a few more weeks isn't going to be an issue. Opening early would be.

you can't claim a fatality rate on people who are not infected. You can't claim people are infected without an actual test. Very, very simple. In my world, no one on any other planet is showing symptoms so yah....this thing isn't dangerous as all. The reason it isn't dangerous for them is because they haven't encountered it yet. Studies of 68 people on a street who test positive for coronavirus antibodies of some sort isn't capable of being extrapolated to a population of 320 million.

That you do not understand that the 2 are related is mind-boggling. In order to sustain your theory that everyone already has it, you must than also accept it kills viciously a very small subset of the population. Saying everyone has it but its killed 33,000 and shown symptoms in in 700000 is a much more fantastic claim than saying its only infected 8% so far. Let me explain. 33,000 is .01% of the population and 700,000 is .2% of the population. Here is your claim. That pretty much everyone already has it, but it only shows symptoms in .2% of people...1 in 500 show symptoms and 1 in 10,000 the symptoms ravage their bodies. Being old or immuno-compromised raises your chances but pretty much anyone...healthy/young, old/frail can get it and it can kill them. There is no known correlation but good news is it randomly shows symptoms in 1 in 500 people. Do you realize how utterly ridiculous that sounds to anyone with medical training? Because I do, my micro-biologist daughter-in-law who runs a testing lab laughed and shook her head when my son told her what was being said here. Things that kill viciously don't go asymptomatic in 99.99% of people. Bleach, take a second and realize what you are proposing. You are suggesting playing roulette with people's lives. For example, take the nursing home in Seattle where this presented very early in the process. "As of March 18, a total of 167 confirmed cases of Covid-19 affecting 101 residents, 50 health care personnel, and 16 visitors were found to be epidemiologically linked to the facility. Most cases among residents included respiratory illness consistent with Covid-19; however, in 7 residents no symptoms were documented. Hospitalization rates for facility residents, visitors, and staff were 54.5%, 50.0%, and 6.0%, respectively. The case fatality rate for residents was 33.7% (34 of 101). As of March 18, a total of 30 long-term care facilities with at least one confirmed case of Covid-19 had been identified in King County." Let me make this really simple. 101 cases. All people at the home were tested. 101 residents, 34 dead. 7 infected showed no symptoms. You were 5 times more likely to die than not show symptoms. 50 health care professionals were infected. 25 were hospitalized (ie. acute respiratory symptoms). So 50% of the health care professionals...scrubbing the snot out of their hands, wearing protective gear, taking precautions, young enough to work, etc were hospitalized. You are reading propaganda man. These are hard facts and this is what can and would happen if we just let this thing loose. Wait for summer, high humidity and ample sunlight. The numbers of actual cases reported in controlled settings don't even remotely support the hypothetical model studies you are citing.

I'm sorry but you can't quote an article on SARS to make a point on COVID-19....they're different. Why can't you just address 33,000 dead in 6 weeks? Why can't you just address 23000 dead in Italy...a country 1/5th the size of the US? You need models and guess-timates. Dude think about this. 23,000 dead in Italy in a month and they started shuttering the country when they figured out what was going on. Come on man. Get out of the conspiracy bubble for a second. There are at least 160,000 dead worldwide in 3+ months despite the most aggressive steps and best medicine in history. I'm not opening up the world in a rush and risking another 160,000 because someone wants to keep both of his yachts. If I'm wrong, there is a recoverable financial mess. If you're wrong, a few hundred thousand people die.

I'm saying neither I nor you know anything for sure. It is all speculation. We can only go on the very little we know. What we know for sure is this thing spread in 6 weeks in the US to at a minimum 700,000 people and killed 33,000. That's it. It killed 33,000 people in 6 weeks. Quit trying to spin your remarks. It is serious and campaigning to open things before we're ready is a death sentence....period. Of those confirmed infected and confirmed dead, right at 5%. Lots of people get the flu but aren't counted either. The flu killed 80k in a year in one of the worst years on record. This killed 33,000 in 6 weeks despite tons of steps to stop it. I really don't get how you don't realize that. The flu gets vaccines for a small percentage of Americans yearly but we go to work, eat at the same restaurants, shake hands, hug and it kills about 40k per year. We stopped coming within 6 feet of each other and started locking ourselves in our houses.....greatly limiting the possible infections...and it still killed 33,000 in 6 weeks. Quit trying to take risks with other peoples' loved ones.

Its very easy to argue. 700,000 tested positive. If its 30x that's 21 million americans already infected. If 50x its 35 million. If its 85x its almost 60 million infected. There are only 320ish million people in America. If you're saying 30x, you're say 1 in 14 Americans are already infected. If that's the case you can could expect as many as 5 million symptomatic cases (that's 1/2 of the population infected instead of 1 in 14) more Americans infected if we just let folks run loose and pass this on (like with the flu). If 700k killed 33,000 then 5 million more will kill 200,000 more. The only reason we would be as low as 1 in 14 with your projections study/guess work study is because we isolated. If we open things up and tell people its okay, this thing will spread again quicker than a jack rabbit encountering a rattlesnake. It is absolute crazy talk to say 1 in 30 infected people show symptoms and then only 1 in 17 (6%) would die. There is no reason for people to show immunity to this if its new. There is no herd immunitiy yet. That isn't how new virus infections work. That's not how any of this works. If its a potentially fatal disease for a population group, 99% of the population isn't immune naturally without having built an immunity. That isn't how immunity or symptoms work. Think about what you're saying. You're saying not that dangerous 30x as many people infected as tested an only 33,000 deaths so far. But 30x of 700,000 is still only 1/14th of the population exposed and you're saying role the dice on the other 13/14ths.

I'm still fascinated with how you are trying to downplay 33000 dead in 6 weeks. 33000 = 1 in every 10,000 people just died in a 6 week period of time in the US. These are hard numbers, these aren't models and guesstimates like that CNN health study. They are hard numbers. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Just click US and all the numbers are there to read. Or go to admin 2 and you can see state by state, county by county. I live in a county of 168,000 people, 5 are dead and we are doing better than most. 3000 people lost their lives on 9/11 and the whole world lost their minds. 17,000 are dead in New York in 6 weeks almost 6x as many and you're like meh...no big deal.

I am always fascinated when people pick and choose things to make their arguments. Hard facts. 3.5 million tests in America, 706,000 confirmed cases. Over 1% of the country tested, 20% confirmed infection rate. If the infection rate is, what you say it is here then the test is 80% inaccurate because 85x more widespread = 1/4 of the country. Basic math man...basic math.

World confirmed cases. 2.18 million, 147,000 deaths. kill rate 6.7%. Italy sample confirmed cases. 169,000. 22,000 deaths. kill rate 13% US sample confirmed cases. 671,500 cases. 33000 deaths. kill rate (not-matured) 5%. (we'll get the real numbers in a few weeks). Explain to me how a 13% kill rate or even a 6.% kill in rate in people showing symptoms is paranoia? The US saw an estimated 80,000 flu related deaths in 2017-18. That without any quarantine measures or social distancing and it was one of the worst flu seasons on record. But this thing has killed at least 33,000 people in a little over a month with social distancing, add campaigns and quarantines. Yah...irrational paranoia. Think about who you're talking to. I'm a crazed conservative libertarian and I'm saying "take this seriously". If anyone on this board would be out marching in the streets for freedom of movement and screw the government its me and I'm saying....lets wait a bit longer before we charge after that almighty dollar. @Sothron is my buddy and I really don't want to get him sick.

Its not about watch or not watch. Its about safety. There is a freedom issue here. But in my worldview its a right to life which trumps right to liberty which trumps right to happiness. This reopening of business, though important and should be done as soon as safe, should focus on safe over speed. Opening too soon will close things down again and start this nonsense over. This isn't about balancing money with safety. The best financial argument is to do it right the first time. Reopen things only when ready so we don't have to repeat this.

Not to come off too stupid here but are sports really what we should be focusing on right now? I mean, rushing to get baseball going isn't exactly tops on my priority list.

And the blame game and misdirection begins https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-announces-halt-us-funding-222750658.html

Following Fauci's comments today. Here are a few stories you can expect to start being referenced. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/27/donald-trump/fact-checking-whether-biden-called-trump-xenophobi/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-expels-three-wall-street-journal-reporters-11582100355 https://www.nbcboston.com/news/health/china-covid-19-virus-cases-fall-again-deaths/2075671/ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-media/china-expels-american-journalists-as-spat-with-u-s-escalates-idUSKBN2143AN 2 things going to start getting drudged up here. 1) The Republicans are going to claim that Democrats were against travel bans and called Republicans racist for taking steps to protect Americans which slowed the response and 2) there should be a ramp up of laying the blame on China for delaying world response by downplaying their numbers. Around the 2nd week of February China was forced to show an increase in their numbers based on the work of the first journalists. Feb 2 showed about 16,500 cases. Cases continued to rise steadily daily with news linking out of China the numbers were far under reported. By the 9th, China was showing 40,000 cases...an increase of 250% in 7 days but with foreign journalists saying it was far worse. It was at this time China started cracking down on Chinese local journalists and making plans to expel foreigners. 1 week later, the 16th...70,000 cases. But magically a 30,000 case jump in 1 week turned into only 14,000 more cases going forward and the steady expulsion of journalists, death of Chinese civilian journalists and doctors blowing the lid off the story. Both sides of our government are responsible here for slow action. They are about to start blaming the Chinese instead of each other as blame is not controlling the media cycle. Beginning that 1st week of February when the travel ban was introduced, Trump was trounced in the media. (one example: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/opinion/trump-travel-ban-nigeria.html), Next week is going to be extreme for the blame game and very touchy geopolitically as Fauci's comments today backs Trump into a corner he was already mostly in. He's going to have to come out fighting and there will be blame deflection going on in all directions.

Excuse me while I remove my voice of reason hat and go full conspiracy for a sec. America is no more exposed than everyone else, but what we are is honest. The American economy is more self-reliant than most in the world and its based on our standing as a food and water exporter. It depends on whether you look at water based products or the full water footprint (as most products use or pollute water when produced), but solely looking at food and water as an export. America exports 2x more food than the next closest country (Germany). https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-american-food-giant-the-largest-exporter-of-food-in-the-world.html Value in dollars food Rank Country Value of Food Exports (US Dollars, Thousands) 1 United States 72,682,349.79 2 Germany 34,628,800.73 3 United Kingdom 29,540,218.71 4 China 25,152,286.27 5 France 24,114,557.76 6 Netherlands 23,271,570.93 7 Japan 21,870,881.77 8 Canada 21,803,448.88 9 Belgium 15,742,034.88 10 Italy 13,890,507.81 Value in dollars water and ice http://www.worldstopexports.com/ice-exporters/ Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of water and ice during 2018. China: US$649.1 million (55.8% of total water/ice exports) United States: $101.7 million (8.7%) France: $95 million (8.2%) Turkey: $46 million (4%) Norway: $35 million (3%) Belgium: $29.6 million (2.5%) Germany: $28.3 million (2.4%) Iceland: $15.6 million (1.3%) Canada: $14.9 million (1.3%) Malaysia: $14 million (1.2%) United Kingdom: $13.2 million (1.1%) Italy: $11.3 million (1%) New Zealand: $11 million (0.9%) Russia: $9.6 million (0.8%) Netherlands: $9.4 million (0.8%) Rarely do people take into account how stable the US economy is based on this part of our trade alone. In the US, we import food and water based on taste and variety, not on need. We have excess here. Most countries do not. Even though China exports water and ice, it is mostly in commercial production of products that require water (like making toilet paper). If the world shut down, the US is perfectly capable of supplying their food needs. Additionally, much of the United states is farmable but unused. During WW2, victory gardens accounted for a large increase in personal food use in the US and can easily be reinstituted. In many parts of the world (see the far east and ancient near east), the people are either too tightly packed or the land they live on is poor for food farming. Foreign nations rely heavily on trade to import food and feed their people. For this reason, many nations are vastly under reporting their Covid numbers. Some scientists estimate that China, as an example, have reported only 1/10th of the COVID impact. Reporting the real numbers would cripple the economies of these nations and they would not recover. For the US, a pandemic does not mean people die of starvation, but in places like Singapore, that's exactly what it means. So the countries lie and deflate the impact to keep trade flowing. The world is lying. The two most honest countries so far (the US and Italy) look terribly under-prepared based on the official numbers. However, as time goes by the real numbers will eventually come out once this dies down due to weather and herd immunity. Current projections show approximately 1.62 million infections world wide. When you consider mild or no symptom infections and the under-reporting of communist, totalitarian and dependent nations, the number is probably closer to 10 million. When you look at the US infection rate of 1 in 700 confirmed and closer to 1 in 200 probably and then extrapolate that to the world, it would be reasonable to assume 1 in 200 in the world have been infected. With a world population of 8 billion, that's 40 million infected. I think my 10 million number is a very conservative estimate. Okay back to rational thought and not accusing the world of being a lying sack of feces. But realize the US isn't handling it badly or was woeful unprepared as much as the US is fairly honest in our reporting and therefore open to real scrutiny.

They just loosened restrictions on drawing from your 401k. When people figure that out, there will be another huge drop in the market. Not sure we're hitting 10k but it will drop again before bottoming out and coming back up in late June.

I am afraid I will not get my target of Wiseman and will be unsatisfied with anyone else.

Last summer I commented on how classy it was of the Hawks to pay Bruno Fernando more than his slot and more up front. Specifically talking about how most of these rookies are having to buy a lifetime worth of stuff year one to set up a new place, be safe, etc. It would appear C.J. McCollum wants you to be empathetic too. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/cj-mccollum-suggests-150-nba-211343398.html "I think a lot of guys are going to be hurting especially people on minimums or people that didn't just budget correctly and didn't expect this to happen. Maybe they loaned money or paid money to family. Maybe they're taking care of multiple people and now there's a work stoppage and for a lot of people in America. -- CJ McCollum said on ‘The Boardroom' " I think this is an interesting take on how much of a business disrupter this is....its trickle down economics at Macro-scale.

To be clear, I see the political fall out of this as even more dangerous than the virus itself. A lot happened in the background here nobody talked about. The cover up, the years of paying off the World Health Organization and civil rights watchdogs to look the other way. Some idiot politician is going to say the wrong thing and this has the potential to blow up. Military posturing is the perfect way to distract from this. Someone is going to say the wrong thing and provide them political cover by allowing this to puff their chests about honor and lies and more. You'll see more about this "holding China accountable" in the coming weeks. Here's to hoping someone doesn't get stupid.

Another article on holding China accountable for under reporting. Not kidding here, I'm pretty sure this is the direction this is going to go next. https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-pay-183117304.html