thecampster

Getting downtown is a pain. For those of you that don't live where North of town and outside the Perimeter. Getting from Alpharetta, Duluth, Hamilton Mill, Suwanee, Roswell, Canton, Woodstock into Atlanta at 7 PM for a Hawks game is not worth the effort. Back when I lived in Dacula and went to 3-4 games a year. I would leave the house at 5-5:30 to make the 7 AM tips. The game ended at 9:30 and I wouldn't make it home until 11:30. Getting down to Phillips to see a game is next to impossible, not to mention that if you don't park in stadium parking you are taking your life into your own hands. I've been accosted twice (once Hawks, once Braves). For those north of the perimeter (where a lot of the disposable income is), the location of Phillips is a major deterrence. If the stadium was at/near Perimeter Center. They would average a sellout.

Man...I don't think Giles is there at 19...but if he is..you take 8 seconds to get the draft card to the table. People recover from injuries like that all the time and Giles is special. He's gonna go 8-14.

Actually I am very interested in the draft this year. We have technically 7 tradable draft assets in the next 4 years and 3 players that could all be used to move up in this draft if need be. I'm anticipating movement from the Hawks. The Lonzo Ball situation is also possibly going to cause havoc at the top. It is going to be one of the more entertaining drafts in years. And I don't see any way Giles drops to 19 but if he does, I'll threaten bodily harm if Schlenk doesn't jump all over it.

The coach establishes a culture. It doesn't matter who is calling X's and O's on game day. The culture of practice, the discipline of the players, feeling of team in the clubhouse, it all begins with the coach. The number one thing a coach must do is either A) establish he is the Alpha or B) defer to a player as the Alpha. No matter where you are, little league, the office, your home, grilling in the backyard, there is always someone in charge and followers. Men need that. My years in the military taught me that. There are those who refuse to be led and those who desperately want leadership. The job of the coach is to identify how to make as many of his players follow the right person (be that him or his Jordan). IMHO, the Celtics of old were so successful because nobody questioned Russell. Russell's work ethic was beyond reproach and his sacrifice for his team, willingness to follow his coach, his submissive yet powerful leadership made those Celtics teams great. That all begins with the coach, his ability to get his players to buy in. Kerr has that. He has the rings, he has the intellect and he has the unwavering loyalty to his players. Kerr is every bit as loyal to his players as they are to him and that is why they'll play for Brown, Walton or whomever, because Kerr earned their loyalty with his.

Their cap situation and specifically finding a buyer for Asik (the exact same situation we are in with Baze right now) is the only thing holding them back from adding a KCP/Hardaway/or similar 2/3 that would greatly improve their starting 5. They are close, really close. If Boogie was getting paid what he is worth, they'd be over the cap, but Boogie's contract gives them about $12 million to work with right now. A buyer for Asik and they'll have $22 million. To be honest, swapping them Baze for Asik would be a steal for them. If we could find a 3rd team to facilitate taking Asik for scrap it is about the most ideal situation for Atlanta and the Pelicans. It would clear 4 million from our cap, Asik (if healthy) takes Moose's spot and we're free to resign Hardaway for Baze'ish money. NO gets a huge improvement on the wing and still would have room. If a 3rd team is involved they get Asik and we get a short term asset.

Talked about this a few weeks ago. For the players - the impact is negligible because better win totals/higher seeds/better markets = more advertising dollars. You give up $2 million in salary but gain $5 million / year in endorsements. For the teams - the impact is very, very real. Salary cap = $101 million this year. Team A has 8 players under contract at a total of $98 million. Team B has the same 8 players under contract but for $90 million because 3 stars took 2-3 million less each to sign. Team A can sign one player for 3 million and then sign 4-6 scrubs to fill out the roster. Team B can sign one player for 11 million and then sign 4-6 scrubs. However, because Team B added one more quality 11 million dollar player over the 3 million player, their roster looks much better and the 4-6 scrubs will include 1-2 willy vets near the end of their career. They could be better at 2-4 positions because of it. This means regular season wins and a better seeding. Additionally, when cobbling together mid-season contracts to add a piece, salary cap rules are very restrictive to the amount of salary exchanged. An 11 million dollar player + 2 1 million dollar scrubs can net you a rental up to $18 million dollars. Whereas a 3+2 can net you an $8 million dollar player (See NO trade for Cousins or to a lesser degree Cavs get Korver). Because New Orleans was rebuilding and salary flexible, the Cousins trade was much easier but part of it was how they were built, traded, etc. Typically, a team on the rise can't trade for Cousins that easily. But Sacramento is setting themselves up for a similar build in 2 years and NO is creating that situation right now. They are really just one trade, lucky piece away from becoming very, very good. If New Orleans can find a buyer for Asik and a real small forward...it is on. But it must happen soon. Davis and Cousins' deals are extremely cap friendly right now. 2018, not so much. But they have a small window to build something that is just plain stupid this coming year and it is due to Boogie making about 15 million less than his current value.

See...thread easily restarted.

Well, if you want to get into deep metrics with this we can make some comparisons I've been mentioning the last few months. http://stats.nba.com/players/touches/#!?sort=TOUCHES&dir=1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season Player - Touches per game - Avg Seconds per touch Chris Paul - 86.2 - 4.99 Dennis - 81.1 - 4.97 Griffin - 80.2 - 2.24 Millsap - 64.9 - 2.01 A case could be made that Griffin is trusted more than Millsap as a ball handler. You'll notice that Schröder and Paul have nearly identical numbers of touches and time per touch. But Griffin has over 15 more touches per game than Millsap and holds the ball almost a quarter of a second longer. This could point to greater trust in Griffin as a ball handler. Now, I could also make the argument (and I do) that what this truly points to is a flaw in Bud's coaching style (or maybe Dennis' age), relying too much on wing players in the offense and not utilizing Millsap (and Howard) efficiently. Bud placed a Chris Paul, Steph Curry level of responsibility on Dennis' shoulders when he really is still developing and 2 + years away from his prime. I really hold back on my criticisms of Dennis because I realize he is still extremely young. 26 years old is really the age you start to truly figure things out in the NBA. Dennis's ceiling is incredibly high. (Back on topic) Griffin shows more touches per game than Demar DeRozan, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Al Horford, Rajon Rondo, George Hill, Marc Gasol, Anthony Davis and even Steph Curry and Kyrie Irving. This points to a great deal of trust he is given by Doc Rivers. When you consider that LA was a better team than the Hawks this year (51 wins in a stronger conference vs 43 for Atlanta) and that Griffin was seen as the #2 facilitator on offense, it provides multiple arguments for debate. For example: How much better could he be in the East? Would Bud's system negatively affect his numbers (see Danny Manning)? As an athletic freak, will he age less gracefully than other players (see Josh Smith's decline)? All viable questions. What isn't a viable question is whether or not he is/was a better player than Sap last year and on face value a better investment (see Joe Johnson's immovable contract).

Extremely relevant stat. Griffin gets about 1 more assist per game and what it shows is that Griffin is consistently passing out of the post or passing up contested shots and kicking out to a wing. Many of his assists are to players standing behind the 3 point line.

Location of the player passed to who made the shot.

Millsap shooting with 3 or less seconds on the clock efg 41.1%, 1.4 ppg. Crunch time efg 43.5%, 4.7ppg. Griffin shooting with 3 or less seconds on the clock efg 43.5%, 2.2 ppg. Crunch time efg 45.8%, 6.0 ppg. Taken from 82games.com So again I say. Do you want to invest 30 to 35 million per year on Millsap at 32 or 30 million starting on Griffin at 28 years old? Millsap - 18.1, 7.7, 3.7 - 44.2% Griffin - 21.6, 8.1, 4.9 - 49.3%.

Now using 82games.com, Griffin's 48 min PER (PF) is 25.2. His opponents PER (PF position) 13.8. Millsap's PER PF = 19.6 and his opponents PER PF = 15.6. Metrics show Griffin to be a better 2 way player as well. The only metric where Millsap wins is blocks/steals by about 1/2 a game.

Using the comparison option http://nbasavant.com/apps/compare.php You see shots of 12-25 feet, Millsap is 131 of 360 (36.39%). Griffin is 146 of 352 (41.5%). Your argument on Griffin is outdated and based off perception, not fact. Griffin is the superior jump shooter by any metric.

http://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=2016&ddlShotMade=yes&ddlTeamDefense=&player_id=201933 The shot and assist chart belies your argument. Notice the difference compared to Millsap's shot and assist chart. http://nbasavant.com/player.php?ddlYear=2016&ddlShotMade=yes&ddlTeamDefense=&player_id=200794 IE...the assist chart is much more dense for Griffin, The spacing better (especially between 15-18 feet).

Welcome to the club....I do that 3 times a day at least. Usually after responding to a post on the board only to read further down and find out someone else already said it.

The NBA contract cycle is a maximum of 5 years. It takes a maximum of 5 years to completely remake your roster. 5 years is realistic. 7 years is built in excuses.

He lives in LA in the offseason.

Just so you know this isn't just wild speculation on my part. https://nugglove.com/2017/05/31/denver-paul-millsap/ http://www.sactownroyalty.com/2017/1/6/14189640/sacramento-kings-atlanta-hawks-paul-millsap-trade-rumor http://hoopshabit.com/2017/02/19/indiana-pacers-3-potential-trade-targets-pair-paul-george/3/

Homage bet? Sap signs with the Hawks, I start a thread singing your praises as smartest squawker ever. Sap signs with one of those 3 teams, you do the same for me. Do we have a bet? Sap signs elsewhere and we both post rude and unapologetic references about Lurker and NBASupes.

And @thecampster, why you scared to share your 3 Millsap teams? (punk) Because I honestly didn't want to take the time to defend it (and in no order), Sacramento, Indiana and Denver. Realistically because I think Sap's price tag is too high for us and those teams need talent at the 4 for various reasons. And FYI, I don't see him getting the max anywhere but I do see him getting $26-28 million elsewhere.

I am saying 31 + Minny + Cleveland can get you there. Especially with Detroit/Miami who is going to need that 31...Good player, much lower salary than 12. That 12 pick is $2.3 to 2.7 million starting salary. Detroit desperately needs that extra salary. They need to keep their existing talent (like KCP). I am saying that 31 = 2 million in salary savings this year for them and gives them 2 future first rounders going forward. most teams see that 31st pick as more valuable than a pick in the 20's because of the cap savings. We tend to look at picks at only the value of talent. NBA teams look at them much differently. If they need a talent infuse, they value being in the top 10. But if they have their core built, teams view picks below 10 in whole terms of salary vs what they bring to the franchise right now. If 12 does look like an immediate starter/contributor...teams will move it. In 2015, the Hawks selected Kelly Oubre but immediately moved him to move down 4 slots and picked up 2 second round draft picks. The Hawks then moved 19 (Jerian Grant) for Tim Hardaway Jr.. The move saved the Hawks $700,000 in 2015 and was purely a move for cap reasons. This is the same type of a deal. Miami is your best bet for this deal here. They need the most 3 year flexibility. The Ish Smith move is just one example but such a move would involve 2 more players and would look something like Baze+Moose for Smith +Leuer. Would save Detroit .25 million on the cap and give them a better fit. You aren't moving Dwight and getting a player who can do 60% what he can do. At his age, baggage level, injury history, salary, it is better to hold on to Dwight until this or next year's trade deadline where players will mortgage the future if they believe he will get them over the hump. Meanwhile, you let your picks develop and or rent Dwight until the right center prospect/FA materializes. Again, you'll be trading Dwight for other team's salary and midlevel 1sts at that time. You can't do that as well now because teams have less in assets after the season as contracts expire.

I outlined the full GS situation here (click me)

I'd take Kevin Love tomorrow. He is being used terribly in Cleveland.

IMHO, what happens in the offseason - Millsap walks (I have 3 teams in mind and I'm not completely sold on sharing at this time), The Hawks move the future firsts from Minny, Cleveland and 31 to move up in this draft (the talent is too good) targeting something like Detroit, Denver, Miami at 12-14 (and FYI if I was the GM, this is what I'd do too). I also think they will find a buyer for Baze in a trade down for a backup point guard (example - Ish Smith). With the cash available from letting Millsap walk and trading Baze you free up about $28 million in Salary and end up about $45 million under the cap after draft picks. You resign Ersan as you rental PF (unless you sign one via free agency...see next) and use the extra money to sign one big name free agent. My personal preference being Blake Griffin. I would much rather throw the max ($30.6 million starting) at Griffin in his prime than the max ($35.6 million starting) at Millsap in his decline. Griffin has better all around numbers and would instantly remove the offense burden from Dennis. With the remaining money (about $10 million) you sign a mid-tier (Ersan or other) and let the young players develop. There's a few "ifs" in there but in my opinion this is what should happen and something like it will probably happen. But you could line up next year with Dennis/Smith (or maybe Rodriguez)/Delaney Hardaway/Bembry/filler Prince/rookie Griffin/Ersan/filler Howard/Muscala/filler and still be under the cap.

Okay, so you asked how do we get out of the mess. Job one is to not violate the cap this year just for wins. That means not resiging Millsap and consigning yourself to suck more. It means letting quality rookies and young talent play/develop. It means trading aging assets like Howard, Baze, Dunleavy, Thabo (back when we could have), Korver (like we did) to acquire young developing talent and draft picks. Then you don't necessarily tank but you position yourself in the draft to pick the closest to "can't miss talent". This isn't always going to be your allstar, but it is a player that will play not matter what. Prince was one of those guys last year. Never gonna be Jordan, but no shot of never playing either. You build a core team via the draft and trading for a youth movement (see Philly/New Orleans right now). Then through a series of trades and or signing, bring in 2 star quality vets to fill the salary cap space you've created by going young (younger players have lower salaries). Nearly finally, once uber competitive, tweak the roster by trading some of your youth for the right veteran fit and then finally, be prepared to exceed the luxury tax when that youth is due for their big payday (see New Orleans in 3 years).