thecampster

Believing the Hawks are a lock for the playoffs this year is crazy. 6th would be overachieving. We didn't just lose Smith. We lost Zaza, Harris, Johnson as well.

There is no mischaracterization and you know it. It can't be simpler than one poster says, "shooting 3's" and I point out he missed 1.8 3's a game. That's a legitimate fact. That's 33% would have been missing 1.7 3's per game is a legitimate fact and when you have to try and trot out advance stats to refute the difference between 1.7 and 1.8 misses a game you have issues. The difference Smith makes will be shown this season when the Pistons make the playoffs and the Hawks are struggling to get in. I love my Hawks and I hate what I see as you guys being sold a bag of sand. Let's try to remember this is the same Danny Ferry that drove Cleveland into the ground. Let's try to remember that this is the same Danny Ferry that was such a Nancy that when drafted with the 2nd overall pick in the draft opted to go to Italy to avoid playing for the LA Clippers. Danny talks about selfish players and primadonnas and he wouldn't play for the Clips. The guy was never really liked as a player, isn't trusted by the players and our offseason shows that. When your big press releases are that a 34 year old Elton Brand is replacing Zaza, Millsap is replacing Smith and can't convince a real center to come to Atlanta, you're in trouble, real trouble.

Benhillboy, not picking on you but this is the sheep following the herd mentality that loses us franchise players every year. Josh Smith missed on average 1.8 3 point attempts last year. He made .8. You guys are beating the dead horse of 1.8 misses. If Josh shot the league respectable 33% from 3 last year that would have equaled 1.7 misses. That is how ridiculously stupid you guys are being. You are whining and crying and exposing Atlanta for being a very low BBIQ city for crying about .1%. Assume for a sec Korver took those 3's and hit his normal 45.7% of last year. That would have made 1 point difference in the games. 1 point, that's it. .154 x 1.8 = .83 points. Now go ahead and tell me how Brand/Millsap/Carroll = Josh like that moronic article the other day tried to do. Those players can't play 1 position all at once. Josh shot 47% last year. at 17 attempts a game...the difference between 50% and 47% is 1 point. Josh in the rest of his game equaled far more than enough to make up 1 point a game. Just ridiculous. December can't get here fast enough so we can be looking up at Detroit in the standing and everyone on this board is eating crow.

Scott can play the 3 on offense but he would be woefully bad at the 3 on defense.

My version is she who must be consulted and she who must be consulted who take any excuse to go back to Vegas. Got married there (on purpose and everything, though I denied her having an Elvis impersonator officiate). Not sure if I can make it with school finishing this time next year but I would be interested.

30 wins and miss the playoffs We are going to miss Zaza, Smith, Harris a great deal and will be undersized nightly.

Of the players listed, who gets their own shot and who is primarily assisted? TS% usually relates directly to not creating. Those who create shots shoot a lower percentage. Those that shoot a higher percentage are usually set up by someone else. Teague 31% assisted (makes sense, he's a point guard) Lou 45% assisted Jenkins 75% assisted Korver 96% assisted Al 77% assisted Paul 62% assisted Of that list, only Teague/Williams are under 50%. What this means is their high TS% is due to the assists of others except for Teague/Williams whose assisted most probably come off of 3's. Using a comparison, Chris Paul was only assisted 22% of the time. Why? Because he gets his own shot. Lebron, 40%. Because Lebron creates his own offense, he is only 40%. TS% is a great stat but only if coupled with assisted. By position assisted is higher. Centers are usually sky high, guards low. Because of Korver's lack of handles, there will be tremendous pressure on Teague to handle the ball and create for others (something he struggles with). He's learning the pick n roll but is not fluid with it. There are going to be a lot of forced shots with this group. We will miss Devin, Josh and others who handled the ball in a pinch.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/det/depthchart Add in Billups and Smith http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/atl/depthchart Subtract Teague/Johnson, Add Millsap/Carroll You're a new fan of the NBA....which team do you choose to root for? Positionally Billups/Knight vs Mack/Schröder Stuckey/Pope vs Williams/Jenkins Smoove/Singler vs Carroll/(none) Drummond/Mitchell vs Millsap/Scott (Hey we win one...barely unless you count Smith as the PF and Drummond rotating between Center/PF) Monroe/Drummond vs Horford/Noguiera All of these are fairly close except at SF/PG where they clean our clocks. They're better than us right now. Edited: Forgot they retained Will Bynum and Italian league MVP SF.

No I agree and to top that, we are small, lack a defensive presence and currently have no one who can be relied on to go one on one in the paint or take people off the dribble. I am literally sick at the possibility I'll be watching 70-80 games of SF's blowing by Korver, PF's shooting over Milsap and Al not having Josh to cover weak side when he goes against big centers or worse yet, watching teams collapse on Al in the paint and leaving him to try and kick it out only to watch the shot clock run out. I am so hoping I'm wrong but listening to the Smith in Detroit interview took me from agitated to crossing over to the dark side. Dumars spoke about the Josh guarding Kobe game and stating he hadn't even done his due diligence and discovered Josh had been guarding 2's. Well there's a reason Josh was guarding 1's, 2's and 5's when needed, because we had real defensive liabilities which just seemed to now be getting worse. Demarre Carroll couldn't beat out Marvin for minutes. They play effectively the same position and Carroll got 16 minutes a game to Marvin's 24. Checking 82games.com Millsap shot 67.7% from "inside" but only shot 35% of his shots there. 65% of his shots were jumpers where he shot eFG% 39.9%. Only 29% qualified as close where he shot 65.2%. 5% were dunk attempts and 2% were tips. Millsap shot 9% more jump shots on his attempts than Smith but only shot .01% better on them. (Josh 56% attempted, 38.9% eFG%) . We beat the tar out of Josh for taking too many jumpers but Millsap is equally efficient in his percentages but shoots outside more often. I may take up drinking before entering chat.

I think many Atlanta fans forget that Josh quarterbacked the Defense and many times positioned people on offense as well. Josh was responsible when on the floor for barking out assignments, calling switches and help. You don't replace that easily. More importantly, energy plays go a long, long way in the NBA toward turning games. Who do we have now that will do that? Who will take the game over for 2 minutes and restore order? Al is not that kind of player. With Zaza gone, who will be our bully? Without Devin and possible Teague, who will run the point? I am ever Mr. Positive but I just can't be right now guys. This offseason has been a disaster. When the biggest news heading into summer league is that Sergei Gladyr may play, you have issues.

I posted this in another thread but I'll say it here again for those of you that are hard of thinking. Detroit posted a 17 million dollar cap hit last year for Richard Hamilton (not with the team) and Corey Maggette (5 ppg) and replace them with Josh Smith and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope for 16 million. They basically added these 2 players for a negative 1 million dollars. Detroit was 29-53 last year but lost a ton of games by less than 7 points in the last few minutes. Their point differential was only - 3.9 average. Atlanta on the other hand lost Smith, Pachulia, Harris and replaced them Demarre Carroll, Paul Milsap and rookies who will be stashed overseas. We'll be the ones winning 29 games this year. Our average point differential last year was a positive .5. A half a point a game. We are in trouble people and have no business making fun of Detroit.

Guys, this is the Josh Smith contract question all over again. It isn't what "you" will give a player. It is what just 1 team will give a player. Earlier in the year I said Josh could get as much as 16 million a year, probably about 4 years - 60 million. Very close to what he got. Everyone screamed...he isn't worth that. Josh is worth what Detroit paid. We are all worth what the highest bidder will pay. Bynum is worth whatever the highest bidder will pay. Dolfan is 120% right here. There is no way Bynum signs here for anything close to 10 million without giving Atlanta a discount. There are 2 possible contract situations for Bynum. 1. Signs for 15+ million for 1 year (flyer deal for someone). 2. Signs for 2-4 years at 10-15 million per. (depending on a physical and probably with years 3-4 as option years). In either case, renouncing all F/A except Teague and renouncing all non-guaranteed contracts we sit at about 19 million available unless we declare the rooks will play overseas next season which frees up a little. That would mean 9.5 million each for both players which is ludicrous compared to what Bynum can and will get in the open market.

You guys crack me up. A healthy Bynum is a top 5 center in the league, moves Al to the 4 and gives us a serious front line that would free up Teague/Jenkins, Korver on the arc. Bynum at 10/year for 2 seasons with a team option for seasons 3/4 is a steal if he works out and a short term stop gap if he doesn't. Bynum is building a house in Atlanta and is by far the best option left right now. Any offer we make for Pek is going to be matched. Bynum or nothing right now if you want a real center.

Actually that is really close to what I suggested he would get in F/A (I said 4/60). And now I'm ready to make another prediction. Atlanta misses the playoffs this year and Detroit makes it. Adding KCP and Smith would be a good season for most teams. But for Detroit, a team that missed the playoffs by 9 games last year and still have space/room to work. Josh's salary is just slightly higher than the person he replaces on the roster, Corey Maggette and his 5.3/1.4/1.1 stat line. However, dropping from Detroit's cap is also Richard Hamilton who hasn't played for the team since 2011 but has still had a 6 million dollar cap hit. Josh at the 3 compared to Maggette for nearly the same salary is a joke. If straight stats can be trusted, Josh brings 12 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists more per game to Detroit with solid defense with blocks. This move alone makes Detroit easily 9 games better. But Josh Smith and KCP to Detroit at a combined 1 million less than Maggette/Hamilton salary wise. People that are criticizing Dumars here have absolutely "0" basketball IQ. Detroit effectively added Josh and KCP while lowering their cap hit by over $1 million. Now comparing the Hawks situation. All 3 of the players the Hawks drafted will have little impact on the team this year. Although talented, Schröder is not NBA ready. He is too small to play significant minutes in the NBA and needs to add 20 lbs, Noguiera will need to adjust to the NBA game speed and Muscala will be a bench player in the NBA. These 3 players are effectively replacing: Pachulia, Petro and Devin Harris. The Hawks haven't just lost Smith while replacing him with the inferior Milsap, they've lost Devin Harris and Zaza. At this point they haven't even retained Ivan. You have replaced these players with 3 non-impact rookies, Paul Milsap and DeMarre Carroll. The Hawks won more than half their games by less than 10 points last year. Unless the Hawks fill their center slot with an impact player like Bynum, this will get ugly and we won't win 30 games. It's a good thing I'm not ownership, Ferry took everything good he did last year and just took a huge dump on it. This team as currently constructed is at best a 30 win team while KCP adds the scoring Detroit desperately needs and Josh fills a glaring hole at SF.

answering the question of how much is left: (a few of these are approximate) Horford - 12 million Milsap - 9 million Korver 5.5 million Lou - 5.25 million Teague Q/O - 4.5 Carroll - 2.5 million Jenkins 1.26 million Cunningham - 1.21 million Nogueira hold - 1.4 million Schröder hold 1.3 million ------------------------------------ 43.92 million not including holds 3 spots to fill, 2 holds of 490k each So we have 14.4 million minimum to spend (give or take) if we renounce everyone.

Millsap is a nice player. Not mad about him at all. But again, you're going to miss Josh when he's gone.

Just laughing out loud at everyone on this board who thinks giving a 32 year old defensive liability who can't handle the basket ball in traffic $6 million a year is a good idea but resigning Josh at $12 million a year is suicide. I wonder if some of you just got locked out of games of 21 as kids because all you could do is shoot and have a soft spot for one trick ponies.

Mike, I've heard you whine and complain about him ever since you came back. You do realize the guy shot 47% last year right. For players with 25 minutes or more a game he was 61st. This doesn't make him a sharpshooter by any means but puts him ahead of such Hawksquawk favorites as Roy Hibbert, Paul Pierce, Carmelo Anthony, Joe Johnson, Luol Deng, Zach Randolph, Ersan Illysova and many others. In order for people on this board to place him as awful they have to use specialized analytics that exclude things Josh does well. There is a reason someone is going to offer this guy 4 years and $60 million. These will be basketball people, not armchair GMs typing on the internet. All the guy has done here is win. Horford goes down for the season, we nearly make the EC finals. Johnson/Williams leave, zaza, other williams go down...the team is plagued with injuries and we win 44 games. The one constant....Smith.

Actually the second Dwight got healthy (last 15-20 games) the Lakers went on a serious run.

Not to mention the best defender on the team.

Josh's cap hold currently is $16,402,500 http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/hawks.jsp

No we can't. Any F/A signings that involve another team's free agents require they home team free agents be calculated first. IF Dwight is signed first we must deal with the cap holds for Josh/Teague...If Teague/Josh are signed first the normal rules apply when signing Dwight. The "you can go over to sign your own players" only applies when they are the only ones you are working with.

So when exactly were you elected the mayor of crazy town? JK

For those thinking Dwight to Houston is a done deal. Here is Houston's position: 7 players under contract. 1 - $100,000 mandatory (old salary) Asik Lin Harden Robinson White - (will he even play) Jones Motiejunas Honeycutt (not on roster) Total salary - 38.74 million That leaves 5 holds (-1 for Dwight) at $2.45 million (or 1.96 million with Dwight signed). effectively this leaves $17.7 million for Dwight (give or take a bit). Without waiving one of the above players or conducting a sign and trade, they can not offer Dwight the max. Complicating matters. What follows is a list of their roster issues. team option Garcia - 6.4 million Unguaranteed Delfino - 3 million Brooks - 2.5 million Parsons - .9265 million Smith - .884 million Anderson - .916 million Beverly - .789 million Ohlnbrecht - .789 million All would have to released/option not picked up/rights given up and they can't sign their 2nd round pick (I believe). Although Houston would probably do this, it isn't as simple as it all seems for them. Comparing to the situation in Atlanta Guaranteed contracts- 18.58 million Horford Williams Jenkins Tyler (not on roster) QO - 5.73 million Teague Johnson Non guaranteed - 3.92 Stevenson Scott Mack 3 draft picks signed for 3 million total (rounded). So making assumptions - With Paul off the market, Teague will be back (1st year probably 6 million). Johnson, Stevenson, Mack will not be back. Scott will. Teague + Scott = $7 million (as little as 5.2 million) Roster - 28.6 million (8 players) Horford Williams Teague Jenkins Scott Nogueira Schröder Neto Room now = 30 million Josh 12, Dwight 18, gets you in under the cap Room to play with Teague's number, etc and a few things are slightly inflated. I would contend a starting 5 of Teague/Jenkins/Smith/Horford/Howard, a bench of Bebe, Williams, Scott, the menace, and filller + 12 million under the LT to get a few more players is a much better option for Dwight to win than Houston where everything depends on Harden's health.