thecampster

In another thread someone mentioned we haven't had a hawksquawk night at Phillips in quite a while. Guaging interest from you guys for later this month if we can get a group discount. Weekend games this month are Brooklyn - Saturday, March 9th Phoenix - Friday, March 15th Portland - Friday, March 22nd Orlando - Saturday, March 30th Let me know what you guys think and I'll hit up the ticket guy that emails me weekly if there is enough interest. We'll need at least 10 I would say.

Here are the advanced analytics you requested Game margin during the time 102.4 (Hawks) - 99.3 (all opponents) Opponents current record in those 11 Hawks victories - 263-353 (average 24 -32) Opponets current record in the 7 Hawk Losses - 238-153 (average 34-22) Overall opponents record all games (note Brooklyn counted twice as we played them twice 1-1) 501-506 (average 28-28). Basically without playing us the teams we played are 494-495....our victory ratio against a 500 club in this stretch is 11-7. Extrapolated out a full season is 50 - 32 (slightly better than we've played the rest of the season and minus Lou). Maybe the most interesting thing here is the game margin increased by 2 points a game while the ppg for the Hawks has increased 6 ppg, defense is giving up 4 more points as well. So they are scoring more but giving up more. This would lead us to believe they are playing at a faster pace which is what LD wanted.

I was looking at our remaining games and the fact we are back in our spot as the 4th seed as of last night's win. I was just looking at the standings when something jumped out. The Hawks have a brutal stretch of games coming to close out the season. The Hawks have only played 55 games while other teams like the Lakers and Clippers have already played 58. Indiana for example has played 56. This leads to extra back to backs, extra flights etc before the playoffs for our Hawks. But then I noticed something. Miami has only played 54 and NY has only played 53. There are 51 days left in the NBA season. So in 51 days, the Hawks have to get in 27 remaining games. Miami 28 and NY 29. Old old NY needs to play 29 games in 51 nights. That's an average of 4 games a week for the rest of the season. Looking at Miami's schedule they have 7 back to backs still to play but their schedule is spread out so that there isn't really any time off for them. Miami's extra game will be at Home. NY's extra 2 games are on the road as they've played the same amount of home games as the hawks. NY has 9 count them...9 back to backs left but no real room on the schedule for more than 1 night off the rest of the way. The Hawks have 8 back to backs left meaning that with 2 less games they have a couple of 3 day's off at the end of the season. Things are not as bleak for gaining a top 4 seed as I imagined.

Unfortunately, one of the reasons drew has SF/PF shoot so many 3's is they are trying to exploit the defensive 3 call. Being under sized at the 4/5, if you float a 4/3 to the perimeter his man has to vacate the lane. Additionally if you allow him to shoot and he shoots over 33% (ala Smith this year), then the shot is as effective as a 50% 2 pointer. So you have to guard him some. This opens up that hi low play Al/Josh run and opens the lane for guards to sneak in for rebounds, cuts, etc. Something fans here don't see about the Tolliver/Smith 3's (and I quite frankly can't tell but about 20-30 % of the time myself) is the shot has gone up because a play broke down. This is a common happening at under 8 seconds to go in the clock in the NBA, not just on the Hawks. I'll explain. A reset on a play requires the point to come back out top and receive the ball. Then the players to realign. Then the motion to begin, then either dribble penetration or at least 2 passes a screen, etc. That all takes about 4-5 seconds minimum if everyone is on the same page. The 24 second violation is a real problem for some teams in the NBA as its no different than any other turnover. So coaching philosophy dictates that some shot is better than no shot. So if the play breaks down with under 8 seconds, the players are usually free to free lance. This is usually when you see a player like Lebron, Jamal, Rose, Kobe just drive at the basket trying to get a foul or on other teams you see the point/SG call for a high screen and he comes around it and just shoots. It looks good when Kobe/Lebron or Deron does it but not so good when Calderon does it (see tonight's game for an example). The tell tale sign (almost always) is someone on the other side of floor display discouraged body language. Almost always, that player was the 2nd/3rd option and they were waiting for the kick. This was a real, real problem for Marvin. If you ever went to the games and watched off ball (a favorite habit of mine), when Joe would get stuck in a double team and the only outlet was Smith on the opposite side of the floor than Marvin in the corner, you could see Marvin just tuck his head. He wouldn't even go to the basket/cut/try to rebound. 3 or 4 times into the game Marvin would leave before the shot went up to play defense with his head down as he jogged the other way. IE, Joe, the screen or the cutter (Kirk and Jamal very often here) didn't execute the play properly, it broke down and Marvin who was out on the wing doing his job waiting to be the bailout would have no shot at receiving the pass. You could see his attitude go sour often in this situation. Go back and watch a game or two from last year if you saved any and watch Marvin off ball. These are break down by design situations. 8 seconds is typically the rule.

I pull the stats using copy and paste into an excel spreadsheet then manually added tonight's game. Then using these formulas =sum(A1:A17)/17 or similar to figure out averages/total, etc Then copy paste the next player in, etc. EDIT: sorry to be more clear. in the player profile in Yahoo there is a tab, Game Log. If you go in there you can highlight any section of games you want, do a mass copy then paste it into excel. Then its just a matter of formulas. Also, you have to add any games not within the 24 hour news cycle.

Record over that stretch 11-7

Jan 16, Josh Smith was suspended for conduct detremental to the team. Since then (includes tonight's game). Smith 17 games 50.37 FG% 35.29 3PT% 18.94 PPG 9.35 RPG 5.06 APG 1.12 SPG 1.41 BPG Horford 16 games 60.96 FG% (just outfreaking standing) 19.875 PPG 11 RPG 3.125 APG 1.19 SPG 1.44 BPG Teague 18 games 46.15 FG% 50.0 3PT% 18.06 PPG 2.22 RPG 8.89 APG 1.28 SPG .33 BPG

I really like Jenkins. Defensively he has good feet. He just needs time to adjust to the speed and precision of the NBA game. I'm very thrilled with Jenkins. And his handles and ability to get to the basket are better than most of you are giving him credit for.

In the new CBA Korver's 5 million a year is about right. Korver can simply shoot like a sniper. That is an extremely valuable commodity. But make no mistake. Lou Williams signed for 5 mil. There's a reason. Korver is a suspect defender and a poor ball handler for a 2, he's no where big enough to start as a 3 consistently. He isn't a slasher. He's a great floor spacer and extremely smart player but in today's athletic NBA his defense can leader to insanely easy possessions by the other team. I love me some Korver but there is a reason a 2nd round pick bought him last year. 5 million is more than 1/12th the salary cap. Korver doesn't excite fans till they see him night in and night out and like Bibby age will slow him down in the future. He's looking at 5 million if he wants to play for a winner. 8 million if he's willing to go to a team that needs bodies.

This move is purely for next season. Not much this year. I would say less than 5 minutes per game. He is here to be evaluated, to learn our system and to work on conditioning/game speed.

@b2n There is a real difference between fans who watch games from a Hero perspective (guys who played a lot of 21) and fans who played sports seriously in high school / college (guys who played more 5 on 5). Good high school programs are grounded in defense / rebounding and floor spacing. When I watch our Hawks and you hear me criticize our players, the number one thing you'll hear me complain about is poor defense. Because I'm a bigger fan of basketball as a whole then basketball dunking and 1on 1 play, I'll railroad a guy quickly for being a lazy defender than for missing easy shots at the rim. The tell tale sign for me is when someone is a great 1 on 1 scorer. Their defense will usually be suspect. This was my problem with JJ. JJ preferred switching off screens than fighting through them. He preferred funneling his man than staying in front. It why I criticized his overall play. Everything he did emphasized the individual, from holding the ball too long to clearing out. It's cool to watch him score on a guy but its terrible for the team concept. Last night you see why I value Josh so much. When he wasn't on Cousins and was playing mainly his own man and not help defending, we were getting scorched. When LD made the switch and Josh made a point of staying in front of his man, we made the huge run. I was always told that the sign of a good defender isn't that he doesn't get scored on, it's how tired the other guy gets in order to score.

Okay...tell me...who are you going to spend that money on. Be specific. Who will take that money to play here that brings more of a complete game than Smith? You need 2 because if Smith is not on the roster next year, we'll have space to sign 2 for that.

Ah but in sign and trade he could get that and he will. In our case you really have to look at where we have salary tied up right now who may not be here in the new Hawks. Harris 8.5 mil Pachulia 5.2 mil Petro 3.5 mil Jones 2.9 mil Korver 5 mil Tolliver 1 mil When you add that up, it's 26.1 million. the raise for Josh is only 2.8 million more average. They have the money. Of the above listed players only Korver is a must retain next year, especially if we get a center in F/A to bump Al and Josh down. Assume you give Josh 2.8 more (only .8 more next year) and assume you give Korver 5 million to return (remembering you have Lou Williams in your back pocket). You still have almost 20 million to sign a top level F/A, 2 picks coming and Tyler, Jenkins, Scott developing. Josh will get his money and I'm saying 70% sure its going to be from us.

He's going to get 5 years and about 80 million. Less per year than he could get going elsewhere but 6+ million more than the total of that contract.

5 days ago I was listening to sports talk (don't ask which show) and they floated the idea that all the trade speculation on Josh was just so that Josh, his agent and Ferry could assess his true value. That they had it out after the 1 game suspension and Ferry agreed to guage Josh's value. That most of the trade talk was sparked by Smoove's agent. Now this makes sense based on something I heard yesterday. That when Houston called, Ferry went for Asik and Parsons. It was an offer Houston wouldn't bite on. The value of that deal...9.2 million. The Milwaukee deal was 21 million. The deals were all over the place yesterday for Smoove and in all different contract ranges. I'm wondering if this was all a ruse so they could guage Josh's value for negotiations next year. Many of the teams calling would have had cap space next year or would be players in the sign n trade market. Dunno...just wondering if it was all some crazy game.

I have to agree. I know this is what AHF does for a living but trade unions are from what I remember subject to the same restrictions as employers when it comes to discrimination (ie...you can't discriminate in membership due to age/race/gender etc). Below are a list of states with laws protecting an 18 year old's right to a job. District of Columbia * Iowa Kansas New York New Jersey Vermont (possibly Minnesota as it's age of majority) Other locations stipulate as "legal working age". Other locations simply state you can't discriminate on age period and do not provide an age in the statute. There are restrictions available on this where age is a requirement to perform a job (ie...serve alcohol/strip). So I find it hard to swallow that a union can sign away those rights without representation or bar entry based on those statutes.

You know, in an era where people do nothing but chase the almighty $ and will drop their loyalty to say "their home state of OHIO" to usurp rules and buy championships, I think its refreshing we have a guy in town who was born and bred here, loves the city/state and logo. His hero growing up is from the team and his associations are local. I'll take Smith and a few bad jumpers over choke* Johnson or no loyalty Lebron any day of the week. And if he proves me wrong this summer, I'll be consistent and turn on him in an instant.

How about you sign a shirt and send it to me that says, "Mr. I think getting autographs is cool because I really need a girlfriend with low standards"? That way I can get your autograph on something snarky that fits you. He's still a person, like him or not.

Sorry but according to Shamsports we were already 5 million under the Luxury Tax before the Morrow for Jones trade. This guy's salary is less than the difference. However, his next season is unguaranteed and he is 1-1.3 million the next 2 seasons. I think this might signal the end of Zaza next year if Dwight is brought in. Dwight at the 5, rotate Al in during Dwight's time out....this guy is technically 3rd string. Then use Zaza's salary to bring in someone else.

AHEM.....I've never seen someone take so much crap for being proven right. Yes Phoenix had to waive their player first. No the Hawks didn't make any of the asinine trades proposed and somehow I'm wrong? It worked out (again I might add) exactly like I said it would. For weeks I've been saying Josh won't be moved because it wouldn't make sense. That any contracts added won't equal a Smith and ultimately he'd be a Hawk and now I'm wrong? I've said repeatedly that it wouldn't work out based on the contracts coming back because we'd have to take back multiples.

It is due to rules. You can't trade for more players than you have roster spots....therefore the values aren't just Smith for xyz. But Smith for other players. These are very separate thoughts. Thought one . A team with 14 players can not trade 1 for 3. That gives them 16. This is a fact. Thought 2. A team with 14 players wanting to trade 1 for 3 needs to drop at least 1 player first which exposes them should something fail. This is a contingency fact Thought 3. If both things above do happen then for the team the real trade is a 2 for 3 as far as the team's roster is concerned and needs to be looked at in that light. New completely separate thought 1. Why would a team doing the above trade a far superior player to the 3 they are getting when A. those players are under salary and player A is not considering the current concept is clearing space for 2013 summer? Since that doesn't make sense and we could turn his cap space into anyone we want in the offseason...why the rush to trade for those 3? I still stand by all statements and I stand by them in the context they were intended, not the box you are trying to put them in. When a sports writer says, Smith for 6 scrubs I know its false because we have our own scrubs we'd have to waive and we can only take back 2 players. I used this same logic this time last year arguing the only trade for Joe was to move him for multiple pieces to fill in our extra slots last year. Check old posts...I explained in detail what would happen with Joe 6 months before it happened.

Are the players better than Smith? Are the players better than Smith and Petro combined? I'm really trying to move you to my logic here which you are obviously missing. You can't trade for 3 players at an average salary of 4 million each and = a Smith. There isn't a team in the NBA with 3 players at that salary doing what Smoove does and further =ing waiving a player as well. You can only play 5 on the floor at a time.

Again, why would we trade for someone we'd have to buyout or why would we trade for inferior players and buyout our own just to offload Smith?

Kris Willis tweeting that Phoenix and Milwaukee are the front runners. Makes me wonder if Morris was an asset to sweeten a deal.

Not at all. My point stands. When discussing a trade...They didn't trade a 2nd round pick for Morris. In essence they traded a 2nd round pick and Zeller. There is a difference. In my case with the Hawks. The players we were "releasing" are already empty contracts next year (except Stephenson). Meaning Ferry spent all that time getting expirings just to waive them to take on inferior salary/player than Josh. Consider the Hawks take on 3 players earning what Smith earn's...13 mil and the Hawks waive a player (say Scott) to clear the roster spot. There is no way 3 players splitting 13 mil are worth Smith...at least one of them is Mike Scott quality. If they are expiring then they are the same as Smith. If they are not expiring then they suck up valuable cap room for next season and we lose a project. Or in the case of Petro, you are trading for trading sake because he just comes off the books in 30 games anyway. Why trade 2 expirings for 3 expirings? I know you guys aren't understanding the point. When experts say 3-1 with Atlanta they are inferring we are dropping an expiring to take on salary just to move Smith and his expiring. If we don't like the players or they are redundant, what is the point. That is how you know its a bogus rumor. That is all I was saying and am still saying. Dolf was like, we can just release Petro. Sure we can and pay the buyout now and the incoming players' salaries next year. But why did we get all that space just to fill it with scrubs with a trade....makes no sense.