Jump to content

thecampster

Squawkers
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,252

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    45

 Content Type 

Posts posted by thecampster

  2. A player to watch - going to Duke: Cooper Flagg

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

    I see holes 🕳️ in his game. :yes: 
     

    image.gif.952ff147e1b753110c648e7f6986768a.gif

    image.gif.1eab36fa7fd1328d9cbb78aca28733bb.gif

    There is a clumsy wreckless abandon to him bit he is talented. I'm not sure "the great white hope" meme is the right one to attach to him but the guy goes hard to the rim while maintaining some finesse and that will be plenty for him to dominate in college. Definitely not hanging all over him at this point but he is intriguing. That Duke has recruited really well over a 2 year stretch will give him a lot of national attention. Duke will be back (hold on, coughed on that a bit, blech! Tasted terrible)

    • Thanks 2

  8. More 3's, the math (is a 30 footer a terrible shot?)

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

    So what is the real fundamental reason for taking more 3’s for an average 3 point shooting % team?

    Is the rational that the extra 1 point makes up for the shooting percentage over a period of time?

    For an average % 3 point shooting team does it matter to take a rushed 3 or a 3 later in the clock? As long as a 3 is launched isn’t that the point?

    There's a couple of ideas.  Shooting 3's stretches the defense increasing the efficiency of 2's, leading to more fouls (farther a defender travels to defend, the more apt he is to foul). Things like that. Easier to sneak offensive rebounds, makes passing lanes wider, etc.

     

     

  9. To JJ from Spud

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

    Then I can’t think of any instance where I’ve underestimated a Hawks career. Many times I’ve overestimated.. examples:

    1. Rumeal

    2. Travis Mays

    3. Marvin 🤦‍♀️ oh myyy I thought he was James Worthy for sure. Ugh 😑 This was prolly my biggest overestimation. 
     

    4. Salim Stoudamire aka Mighty Mouse 🐭 lil cuzzo. When he went off in summer league I giggled 🤭 at the prospect, when his career unfolded I cried alone.

    5. Cam Reddish… I uhhhh.. I blame Lloyd and Nate that kid was going to the hall of fame but Lloyd tied him down in a chair 🪑 and Nate proceeded to tickle him with a feather 🪶 right under his armpits while whispering in his ear…

    ”you’llllllllll neverrrrrrr maaaaaakkkkeeee iiittttt.. “🏃‍♀️ -inspired by Soth.. 

    I ain't quit on him yet. The rest, yah...you're on your own.

    • Haha 1

  10. More 3's, the math (is a 30 footer a terrible shot?)

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    So its come out that Quin wants the guys shooting more 3's and rather than have people think they know what that means, I'll give it my best shot.

    The Hawks had 101.6 possessions per game last season.

    The Hawks shot 48.3% from 2 on 92.4 attempts of those 30.5 3PA at 35.3%.

    The average team loses 4 possessions per games to a blocked shot.

    there are lost possessions in the mix, for the purposes of counting, of shots attempted that result in a shooting foul resulting in FTA. This is why the possessions never match the split out totals.

     

    Basically there's about 17 possessions a game that result in a turnover or blocked shot.  I can't pull it now but stats show that most turnovers happen in the last 10 seconds of the shot clock. Every extra pass, every screen set, every rushed shot under the basket is an opportunity to lose a possession.

    Stats also show that 3 point attempts lead to more run outs, more transition attempts.  you have a 13% lower chance to convert a 3 pointer (leading to a longer rebound)(25 percent of makes).

    Stats also show that 3 point attempts later in the clock are converted at a higher rate due to more bad rotations being open.  

     

    So the trade off, I shoot earlier and from 3 at a lower conversion rate and more runouts vs less turnovers (totally lost possession) and less blocked shots but at the cost of total free throws attempted.

     

     

    So given the above, is Trae or any other player taking a 3 as soon as its open worth the risk to avoid the risk of turnover or block to?

     

    If we sign an arbitrary percentage of 30% to the number of 3's converted when less than optimal and we recognize every turnover/block/transition is most likely to lead to .3 points more for the other team (difference between points per possession off transition vs points per possession out of bounds).

     

    Math is something like: 10 quick 3/ranged 3 attempts = 9 points at the cost of 7 x .3 (2.1) more points  (net + 6.9) for the other squad minus the normal chance of scoring possession which is 1.15 points per 10 possessions x .84 (penalized for potential lost possessions) vs 1.6 x .3 (.48 more points)  (net +9.18). 

     

    There are assumptions in there but it looks like the net difference of letting your 3 flag fly is -2.28 points per game.

     

    However, how much does the more aggressive play loosen up the defense for more scoring efficiency the other 90 plays a game?  The math gets deep but I'll open it up for discussion.  This is a weak first crack at this off the top of my head.

    • Like 1
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    To JJ from Spud

    in Homecourt

    Posted · Edited by thecampster

    56 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

    No doubt. I love being proved wrong nightly by that dude. Aging fun with it now but honestly this was the biggest miss on my radar as a Hawks fan since … maybe Chris Crawford in 99. I mean Crawford was nothing close to JJ but at the time people were thinking he was a breakout guy and I said no.. I guess that was half right cuz he did end up out of the league but..

    JJ.. what a ride. He’s had me up more times off my 💺 that even Trae this year. Anytime he’s remotely within 20 feet of the rim I feel like he’s gonna dunk it on somebody. 
     

    How the heck did scouts miss on him. Thank god for us he had a limited college career. Man, this dude breaking that draft now slowly creeping up to the top 10 in that draft? 

    So the first 2 games I considered a drinking game where every time JJ was ripe for a 45 degree slash or a back door run at the rim, Trae swung the ball the other way. I chalked it up to Trae being trained the last 3 years to believe that cut would never happen.

     

    I'm thinking 20 games in, those easy plays are going to happen on the regular, your knees will be shot from all the jumping up and we won't be losing the 5 point games we lost to open the season.

    • Like 5

  13. Official Game Thread: Hawks at Bucks (7 PM EST Tip)

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

    😐

     

    😐

     

    😐 

     

    Soth… this isn’t an “I don’t believe you thing” it’s more of a “whoever told you this is full of crap 💩 “…

    I’m not going down this rabbit 🐇 hole again that ends in Soth saying I don’t believe him again. My thoughts are .. 

    1. I am pretty sure Nate didn’t say that.

    2. Even if he did who gives a 💩 he’s gone, Lloyd is gone.. Bud is gone. 
     

    Soth, again I believe you tomorrow if you come out and say Bud used to spank Dwight on the butt and he seemed to like it.. 

    but this one.. man, Nate would have had to be straight up evil.

    Recent news stories about Dwight infers than he might have.

    • Haha 4
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Official Game Thread: Hawks at Bucks (7 PM EST Tip)

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

    Ya I’m in this boat too. I don’t think Soth is lying to us or anything but whomever told him that Nate straight up said that to Jalen, it’s just extremely hard for me to believe it being true. Again Nate was a crap coach who had mailed it in but saying that to a young player.. I don’t know man, that’s pretty evil of Nate if he did say that. In this day and age though, I just don’t see Nate saying that even if he was thinking it.

    Well and we've all heard what someone said and took it to the extreme in our heads. Nate might have said, cut you're hair, you'll never get a good commercial with that hair and JJ heard, "you'll die in College Park and I'll own your soul for a 1000 years".  At least I have an ex who heard things like that.

    • Like 2
    • Haha 10

  17. To JJ from Spud

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    After 3 games, 28:20/game
    15.3/7.7/1.7/1.7/1/FG 64.5%  3PT%37.5.
    image.png.3eef015338c4e8ffbda00a51e51a9c03.png

    After 3 games, 28:20/game
    15.3/7.7/1.7/1.7/1/FG 64.5%/3PT%37.5.

    Collins last season, 30:00/game

    13.1/6.5/1.2/0.6/1/FG 50.8%/3PT%29.2%

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Official Game Thread: Hawks at Bucks (7 PM EST Tip)

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Sothron said:

    Is Nate currently employed by any team? Did Nate not say in public he wasn't in the development process anymore? Did Nate not point blank refuse to play Jalen? You heard the same things that @thecampster and I said about this in the insider messages and what we've said here in public about it. 

    It is what it is. I didn't make him say that to Jalen or treat Jalen like he did. Nate did those things. 

    I'll speak for myself on this one.

    1) Why Nate didn't play JJ? (mostly conjecture here, a bit of fact).

    Nate is old school. Forwards don't bring the ball up. Guards facilitate. Defense is 1v1, funnel drivers to the bigs. Forwards finish on the break. High pick n roll. ISO.  A number of things inherent in JJ's game are contrary to Nate's style.  JJ is a grab and go, penetrate and dish, fill passing lanes, slashing cutter, help/strip/block type of hybrid.  Nate likes traditional roles, technically, JJ can play 3 and 2 half positions on offense. Fit over talent.  Nate wanted (the best 1, the best 2, the best 3) traditional role at each position.  There are better traditional 4's than JJ. Collins is one and in a world where traditional 1970's 80's basketball is played, Collins > JJ. This ain't 1978. The game is better, faster, more complicated now.
     

    2) What did Nate say to JJ?

    Most of what Nate says comes off harder than intended as he's more of a my way or the highway guy. I don't have 1st hand knowledge of the conversation, but what I do know is Nate was adamant JJ get better at setting picks, give the ball up immediately after a rebound and give it to a guard, learn traditional post up moves, stop leaving his man when the ball swung to the other side of the floor.  I believe it probably was more along the lines of "If you don't learn to do or stop doing XYZ, you'll never make it in this league."

    3) Was there friction?

    The biggest point of friction on the team was shot selection, ball movement, shot sharing as it related to Trae/CC and JC/BB/Hunter.  There were 2 coaching camps. One was very into developing a more balanced offense where the other 3 got more shots. The other (Nate's camp) was into developing the short rotation of 8 men as a way to get more people shots (more floor time for 8 players).  But perhaps the 2nd greatest point of contention was playing time for deserving players.  If BB/Hunter do not start the season with the injury bug last year, you may have never seen AJ on the floor either. However, almost all of the coaches were clamoring for JJ to get more time on the floor and be allowed to do his thing. Nate dug in his heels.  The kid won't get time over Collins/Gallo/Others until he can do PF things better than Collins/Gallo.  This is where I believe point 2 stems from.

    4) Was Nate wrong?

    It depends on your vantage point.  If we were in the first year of rebuild with Trae/JC, JJ would have been the best starting 3. Not because he's a 3 but because young teams fly around and do young legs things.  Nate was trying to build a traditional deep run playoff team and his strategy wasn't off, just his talent recognition.  Rumors last year were that management and staff wanted to move Collins by the deadline and put JJ in as the full time starter at PF. That trade never materialized as we overvalued JC and the cost of his contract. Nate's insistence of misusing JJ is one of the many reasons he was let go.


     

    15 minutes ago, AHF said:

    Whether Nate specifically told JJ he wasn’t good enough to be a real NBA player or not, I don’t really care.  What I care more about was that Nate absolutely did not give a **** about developing JJ (as backed up by Nate’s public statements) and actively resisted giving him minutes.  This was a complaint and criticism from a lot of us at the time and was reported by the press as a major source of friction among the coaches. 

    That was a mistake even if he didn’t go LP and submarine his own guy.

    See my just posted post. This was something I dropped on the board about a week before that article dropped.

    • Like 10
    • Thanks 1

  24. Defense and Hustle Tracking: 2023 - 24 season

    in Homecourt

    Posted · Edited by thecampster

    3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

    Defensive stats

    2) Jalen Johnson defended 20 shot attempts - On some possessions he deliberately attacked him.  Washington kind of had his number, whether it be shooting 3s in his face, or taking him off the drive, or cutting to the basket.  On other possessions, he played great help defense that caused missed shots.  Giving up 18 points on 20 shot attempts isn't bad at all, at a 40% clip.

    Hustle stats

    image.thumb.png.3ef567ef1cfa72fcd8ef1496e1f87e57.png

    Hustle stats are something that we as fans need to pay more attention to.  Hustle stats tend to skew more toward frontcourt players, because they'll be in contention more to contest shots or get deflections out on the perimeter.  In that 1st half, Jalen Johnson was all over the place, and it shows up in the hustle stats.  Clint should always score high in the hustle category, due to his ability to protect the rim and help when people get beat off the dribble.

     

     

    Comparison, John Collins, same night, 1 more minute of play

     

    Defense

    image.thumb.png.43fdca47249852d683f14856f6365893.png

     

    Hustle

    image.thumb.png.c08e57320d6f309989ca053c41b899e2.png

     

    Cost, $22 million more dollars.

     

    All I need to know and I may track it all year. Opposing team shot 2/9 from 3 against Jalen.  3/6 vs Collins.

     

    Jalen contests and gives help.  

    • Like 1

  25. Quin Snyder - Hawks forward rotation article

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    https://www.si.com/nba/hawks/news/quin-snyder-breaks-down-hawks-rotation-at-forward-and-starting-lineup?fbclid=IwAR1APuSTu2fF1JJ_fq4gsQFZ9tpR8SYuZshQKnOXPWHkMUOcd2rdP3aOyR4

    "As hard as I have worked to educate everybody on the situation, clearly I have failed. Because it is not a binary question of Jalen or Saddiq. Maybe tonight will make that clear. There are times when it will be. One of them will be playing and the other won't. Those guys, and (De'Andre Hunter). Those three guys. All three of them were in there together tonight... They're different players, obviously, but they are both really good players in their own way. That is often the case. We've got a number of guys that you have those questions like "Who should I play?" and that is something that I think our team understands. Players always, I mean they'd like to play 48 minutes if they could, you know, but it is harder to do that. You tend to get a little tired. There was a couple of times tonight those guys were gassed, but I am glad you brought that up"...

×
×
  • Create New...