thecampster

what I don't under stand is the "far better rebounder" comparison to Josh. Josh is getting 8.4 rebounds per game playing PF/SF. Gortat is getting 9.0 rebounds per game playing center. The center position should be the easiest to rebound from on the court. 6/10th a rebound a game from a more prominent rebounding position doesn't seem like "far better" to me. Last year, only .4 more.

I've been saying this for the last 2 years. Smith is going to get 15mil+...the question is who will be the one to give it to him. Does Atlanta settle in at 15-16 per year for 5 or does someone else do 18 for 4. That's the question.

Now for the sane part of the conversation. Source shamsports.com Atlanta salary 12/13 - $66.5 million 5 + million under the LT Phoenix salary 12/13 - $51.6 million NBA salary cap 12/13 - 58.044 million Suns are under the cap by 6.4 million, meaning the salary difference of 6.4 million can occur. Josh salary 13.2 million Gortat salary 7.26 million Difference - just under 6 million dollars. Technically, the teams can swap these players straight up. There is no need for "other players". The Suns are currently paying 15 players on their roster, 1 off. They cannot take back more players than they send. Not including Pargo, the Hawks currently have 14 players on their roster, 2 off (Farmar/Williams). Meaning they can take back 1 extra player in a trade. Assuming a trade goes down and the Hawks want to avoid the LT, they can take back 2 players of 18 million or less or they can add a player (say Petro) and take back more. So assuming a deal for Josh only....you are looking at Gortat and 1 more (probably Dudley) and at least 1 pick. Things you guys may not be considering. Every 1st round pick we acquire has a cap hold next season. That cap hold restricts our ability to sign free agents based on its value. So let's pretend Houston makes the playoffs and we get 2 picks in the process. Our cap hold next year is our players + about 5-7 million in draft picks up coming (depending on slot). This may be too much to allow our signing of a free agent. Additionally, Gortat's salary and anyone they may trade us except (Brown, Tucker, Zeller, Johnson, Telfair, O'neal) has a contract guarantee next year which would also kill our cap space. Let's assume for the sake of argument its Dudley and Gortat and 1 pick. That gives us 3 picks next year and based on the location in the draft, about 5 million. The player salaries are 12 million together and we already have 21.5 million on the books for next year not including cap holds. Add it all up and we are at 38.5 million. This isn't bad and leaves us room to sign a max player except for the cap holds and such. It leaves you with a roster of Gortat, Horford, Dudley, Williams, Teague, Jenkins, Johnson, 3 mid level picks and whatever max player you get to sign. You still aren't a contender or even close.

Had you been in chat during the first half, you would know the game was such a boring display of apathy we chatted everything from politics to home repair to jobs. Re-watch the game. Winning a game like that is like beating your 5 year old brother in a wrestling match on points because you were to apathetic to get a pin.

Marc Spears said something casually in his rankings. Ever since Spears mentioned this could be the time it actually does happen, everyone has been reprinting it like its the gospel. This is all from a mention on Sunday / Monday.

Sorry but this game shouldn't have been that close. There were a number of questionable calls. Many of them coming in the 3rd quarter when Horford had to be taken out with 4 fouls...moreso because he was about to get a T than the 4 fouls thing. He was jumping and barking about calls. There were 2 phantom fouls in the matter of about 4 minutes that allowed Zaza into the game (obviuously not playing 100%) and took Al out. That is where the game was lost.

Video of Scalabrine playing the scrubs. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/brian-scalabrine-dominated-competition-boston-one-one-challenge-231654445--nba.html

Actually, we can absorb some salary. So I think you are looking more like Howard/Duhon for Horford/Harris or Howard for Horford/Korver. In either scenario we will probably move a pick to L.A. L.A. does this for two reasons only. Horford is signed/Howard is not. Horford is perceived as content...Howard is perceived as a malcontent.

So I'm posting this in Homecourt by associating this article with the attitude of Hawks fans on this board. You hear a plethera of opinions on Josh/Al/Teague/Drew and the rest here like we really know what we're talking about. I remember listening to Charles Barkley on what I think was the old Jim Rome show talking about how good NBA players were. He said, you and I can go to the YMCA and you can pick the 4 best guys there to play with you and then you can pick any other 5 adults there wanting to play to give me and we'll beat your butts every time. Well, this story about the human victory cigar Brian Scalabrine proves just that. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/brian-scalabrine-dominated-competition-boston-one-one-challenge-231654445--nba.html Every time I hear the fans on this board spout craziness about firing coaches, trading players, etc I remember the story of sir Charles. Interesting related story. In my younger adult days, I joined a semi pro baseball league. It was pay to play but with cuts. Most guys paid their fee but by the beginning of the season didn't make a team. The kind of place former high school players can go to have fun or marginal pro talent can go to get back in shape trying to get another shot. It was my first season. I was still feeling myself out but looked to be the best pitcher on the squad. In one of our first practices, I was feeling pretty beast while throwing BP and feeling pretty good about guys on my own team not getting good cuts on me. When up walked one of our own players (first time I faced him). He was a former AA player who had been hurt and was trying to work himself back to a contract. He sent the first pitch I threw screaming off the wall. So I reared back and threw about 95%, a little wild and it pushed outside. He lasered it to right. I blinked a bit and threw again, this time not holding back and getting a good bit of the inside part of the plate. He crushed it about 50 feet over the fence in left and not even realizing how hard I was trying to not get hit said, "yeah...just like that....keep it right there". It was at that point I realized there was a huge difference between a pro athlete and myself. Seems like a these guys got a taste of that with Scalabrine. I think the posters on this board (myself included) could do with a little bit of that humble pie Scalabrine served up, take a step back and just enjoy watching the best basketball talent in the world night in and night out.

Josh would be in Milwaukee right now if it wasn't for what he said during the playoffs a few years ago.

Actually try reading my post. I posted the win percentage for the time...with and without Smith.

I've taken a bit of time to weigh in on this but there are a few things that need to be said. The 3-0 this year without Josh is an extremely small sample. Specifically, this last game the whole team got a wake up call when Josh was suspended. You are all speaking without any knowledge of what actually transpired but if I had to guess, I would say the effort we saw Wednesday had a lot to do with Teague finally going to the basket consistently and Zaza/Al on the floor together consistently and the Nets being a lax defensive team. 3 games doesn't allow for matchups/opponent diversity and the like. Quit drawing conclusions from 3-0. Prior to this year and in their previous 20 games where Josh didn't play (dating back to 2007/8) the Hawks are 8 - 14. Including this year's stats they are still 3 games under .500 without Josh in the lineup. During that stretch they are 243 - 189. 56.25 winning percentage. Without Josh in the lineup, 44%, with him in the lineup 57%. Although you scored well in that one game, the game was at home, the Nets, an older team at key positions were on the 2nd night of a back to back. The Hawks offense has as much to do with Harris getting back into playing shape as it does the subtraction of Smith. Harris had 4 steals in the game, scored 18 points on just 11 shots. Harris' better team play as a starter than Williams is just as worth mentioning. Harris' +24 was far and away better than any other Hawk. I think the throwing Smith overboard crowd needs to take a step back and breathe a little. A team that has to depend on Zaza (oops I was blocked by the rim again) Pachulia to play like an all-star nightly is in trouble.

I want to pile on my explanation to clear it up. Our cap space is somewhat fictional and it depends on a few players who are all tradable commodities. All of these players are either free agents or are owed a QO. Smith Harris Korver Morrow Pachulia Teague Johnson Now here's the problem. Until you renounce them, they're yours. You can't sign a new player to fill their void without getting rid of them. However, keeping them as trade bait is how you are able to go up to the Luxury tax with good talent. It's a chess match for sure. So although you might want to get rid of Smith or Harris, you can use their salaries to technically sign and trade with say L.A. to bring back more than just Dwight (for example purposes only...nobody freak out). There are advantages to this. LA if they lost Dwight in free agency may not be able to resign a similar player. So using sign and trade we can make a better deal for Dwight or whomever while LA could at least get back quality. Other teams will come to us to do the same thing. They may want Pachulia but don't want eat up their cap money to get him. So they may want to move a player to us for Pachulia in sign and trade or even in a three way. Flat renouncing these players takes away a bargaining chip we have to build the team in Ferry's image. So although we are technically on the hook for only 18.5 million....that is not necessarily the best way to go about building the team.

Let me see if I can clear up the confusion. http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/hawks.jsp Total salary for 2013 - $21,513,122 Players included Horford, Williams, Jenkins, Stevenson, Scott Note: Teague and Johnson are owed qualifying offers and technically should be included above with more salary. Their salary counts against the cap until we make a qualifying offer or renounce them. The minimum for both total is about $4.671 million. Note: abount 3 million of this number up top is not guaranteed (Scott/Stevenson). Total salary for 2013 guaranteed. - $18,483,800 Players included Horford, Williams, Jenkins Total salary for 2013 including cap holds - $73,429,929. Important additions on this list are Smith, Harris, Korver, Pachulia, Morrow, Petro, Teague, Johnson. Okay so technically we are only on the hook for 18.5 million but that includes waiving our rights to every player except Horford, Williams and Jenkins. If you opt to keep Ivan and Teague you are at about $23 million. However, until you trade or renounce Smith/Harris/Ivan/Teague they count an additions 34 million against your books above the 18.5 million, (assuming you renounce your rights to everyone else) rendering your effective salary cap situation as 52.5 million and assuming an estimate cap of about 58 million you can then spend 5.5 million. The real issue here is Smith/Harris eating up $29 million in cap holds (salary + 50%). I hope that clears it up for you, a few numbers are round for simplicity sake and of course I could be somewhat wrong but I'm 99% sure that's good enough. Shamsports has a very clear salary tool for all teams.

Interesting take and I can't say I disagree. What will be interesting is what happens to Josh if Dwight doesn't come. Is he traded, let go immediately or are they truly committed to him?

There's a thread about Josh knowing Dwight's plans and it has a video in it. Watch the video. It discusses Josh watching game film for defensive positioning and how/what he practices.

Atlanta Hawks 2005-2006...first year Joe played here. 26-56, Next to last in the East. also new that year - Josh in the starting lineup, Marvin and Zaza 2006-2007 ... 30-52, Marvin/Josh/Childress/Zaza now regulars in the rotation. 2007-2008 .... 37-45. Al Horford and Mike Bibby arrive. We make the playoffs but are still under .500 Notice that Joe Johnson's arrival + the addition of 3 players brought the Hawks 13 more wins. Joe was here 3 full years without us going over .500. Save me the Joe saved the franchise speeches. It was the growth of Smith and Horford that brought this team to the promised land as evidenced by the Hawks record post Johnson/Bibby/Williams. Also evidenced by the assembly of a team so good Joe is the 3rd option and they are looking up at the Hawks in the standings.

Quite the opposite If a player plays 30 minutes a game and posts a plus minus average of +4.3 per game and a player plays 10 minutes per game and posts a +3.0 plus minus average, the per 36 (measure of efficiency) for player a is +5.16. But for player B it is +10.8. Clearly player B's +/- for his time on the floor is better. But translated out to a full season with cumulative numbers, player A has a total of +352.6, while player B has a total of 246 making player A look far more impactful than player B which is not the case. I want per 36 +/- over a stretch of at least 20 games and closer to a full season for it to be a useful metric of efficiency. It is the best way to use the stat. Win% as well is a bit skewed as it favors starters over reserves.

If the front line is Dwight/Horford/Smith than maintaining Devin Harris and Korver is a must. That IMO is the best starting lineup to pair with that front line. Now the question is can you keep Zaza/Ivan for the bench and convince Lou to play PG with Jenkins on the second unit.

I can't....I just can't. I never felt he made a shot for me or the team. I always felt he made a shot in the lane to justify his next contract.

I would rather lose the next 40 then win 75% of those games with Pierce. The only bigger jerk in the NBA plays next to him.

Mace is your metric total or per game....thanks for clarifying.

Personally I think this is you projecting. I think this was more in regards to Zaza, Korver, Lou than to Josh or Al. I see Josh and Al as near superstars but not quite and never will be. A great comparison on this concept is Kukoc. In his day, people thought the big Croate could be a centerpiece. He wasn't, but he was a helluva Robin. He was almost enough to help Pippen and a Jordanless Bulls team win it all again. Josh and Al are that kind of player. You either need to surround them with 3 other solid players without glaring weaknesses or they need someone just a bit better than they are. JJ wasn't better, he was the same or a bit worse. Marvin was worse but they seemed to prop him up (we've seen Marvin regress in Utah). I think Josh and Al help a great deal in hiding other people's weaknesses. What they need are either a superman (Dwight/Dirk/Paul etc) type to play with or they need a team of players not much worse than they are without glaring weaknesses . Neither is going to carry a team but both can cover for a team in stretches. I think this is what Ferry is getting at. Seeing how these weaknesses (Teague's turnovers in transition, Zaza's offensive fouls and stone hands, Ivan's missed assignments, Jenkins youth and slow reactions, Stevenson's cheating on D/taking plays off, Harris' health issues, Morrow's lack of size) all affect how Al and Josh must cover for them which is beyond their ability.

Stinger made a statement last night and I didn't record the game so I can't get the exact quote. But what he basically said was Josh getting all these blocks isn't necessarily a good thing. It means he's getting too many opportunities for blocks because our guards are getting taken off the dribble. Defense starts on the perimeter, not at the basket. Stinger is very right here. Teams are getting to the rim too easy against us and the big guys are getting fouls, having to challenge shots and out of position for rebounds. I think he was more on target than he meant to be.

Scary thought...he played a good bit of SG in high school