thecampster

Using Hollinger's PER model, Scott was tops in that category according to the article. Not a perfect metric but there is something to it. Name-----------------PER Mike Scott----------- 30.7 Jae Crowder ----------28.9 Kevin Jones -----------28.6 John Shurna --------- 27.6 Eric Griffin------------26.5 Mitchell Watt---------26.5 Draymond Green----26.1 JaMychal Green-----25.2 Terrence Jones-------24.3 Royce White--------22.9 Perry Jones III-----21.2 Moe Harkless-------21 Quincy Miller---------19.3 Tornike Shengelia----12.2

I said this in an earlier post and I'm going to say it again. We were held to 90 or less points 24 times last year. We lost 22 of those games. We lost 26 total for the year.Score less than 91 we are 2-22. Score 91 or more we are 38-4. These two picks were about scoring 6-10 more points in those 22 losses. We lost by 7 or less 12 times last year and missed the the top seed by 10 games. Horford healthy, more consistent scoring when Joe/Josh have off nights = the next step. We shall see.

Interesting in this video in the last 2 possessions he is running point in the 3 on 3 game and makes 2 good passes. In the first possession, whoever the big was was super slow coming to the ball. That one possession would have made me pass on him. Rule one for big man is follow the guard when he gets in the lane...guy was flatfooted. 1:25 mark

People criticize his size as well. Let's compare him to a great player of the past who he compares with very wellReggie Miller vs John Jenkins last year of collegeRM JJ6'7" 6'4"185lbs 215lbsFG% 54.33Pt% 43.9ppg 22.3rpg 5.4apg 2.2Reggie wins with 2.4 ppg, 4 rpg. Reggie was the 11th player taken his year. Jenkins was 23. We would be lucky for Jenkins to become 3/4 of a Reggie Miller. They are very comparable players.

Reason one - http://www.hoopsworl...ie-salary-scale 23rd pick gets - $1,003,800 first year. For a guy who can come off the bench and score...that's a steal. He's essentially the same as a vet minimum deal. Reason two - He's mature. 3 year college players with hard core facts, not potential are harder to come by these days (see reason six). Reason three - He's not a one trick pony. Yes he is by far a knock down shooter. But he's a scorer all around. His shooting percentage from 2 was 52%. That's ridiculous for a 6'4" SG. Reason four - He's healthy. Kirk, JJ, Pargo, T-Mac, Green have all had major medical issues at one time or another or are just plain getting old. Reason five - We have $60 million dollars committed on 6 players. He is capable of playing NBA bench minutes right now and fills one of the needed 7 remaining slots. Reason six - Your other outside threat off the bench has a butt like a duck. Reason seven - If you pop a bag of popcorn and put it in a bowl, then melt a little butter in a pan, put a slice of american cheese in it and then a handful of either shredded cheddar or colby, melt it on low and then pour it on the popcorn and mix right away while the cheese is still melted, you get a very tasty nearly healthy snack. This isn't pertinent but I thought I'd take a break and tell you about my favorite game night snack. Reason eight - oh...it was the 23rd pick. Rarely do you get a superstar below 15. Reason nine - 37.3, 25.0, Those are Joe Johnson FG and 3pt percentages in the playoffs this year. Reason ten - 38.6 and 0.0. Those are Josh Smith's FG and 3pt percentages in the playoffs this year. Reason eleven - 4. The number of 3 point shots too many Josh Smith took in the Boston series. Reason twelve - 10 points. The total number of points Boston outscored the Hawks by in a combined 3 losses. The Hawks were 2 three point baskets per game from winning in 5. Finally reason thirteen - The number of times an opponent held the Hawks to 90 or less points last year was 24. They lost 22 of those times. They only lost 26 all year. Hold the Hawks under 90, you win 92% of the time. That's why they got a deadeye scorer at 23.

Bodying him up won't work. He is very good at using his body to create space when driving. See the 55second through 1:14 on the video and about 1:50 on the video.

He can do both well, it's the giving the ball up part he has a problem with.

Machado, undrafted!!! Whoda thunk it?

Jenkins is adept at drawing fouls. This was a good pick and good insurance for when Joe is hurt, needs a breather. The kid can score with the best of them. He can get his own shot and hit any spot up J. Willingly pass the ball to an open teammate...not so much.Hey, this might work. If you don't pass it to Josh with 5 seconds left on the clock....hmmmmmmm.

Tidbits of information on Jenkins - Scored 43.2 ppg his senior year of high school.Comparison - a muscular Jamal Crawford.Elite step back jumper.Excellent jab step, stop step, body controlNeeds to work on - passing, defensive positioning. you should know compared to JJ's last year in college.PPG - 19.9 (JJ - 14.2)PPFGA - 1.45 (JJ - 1.27)FG% - 47.4 (JJ - 46.8)3FG% - 43.9 (JJ - 44.3)2FG% - 54..2 (JJ - 47.6%)FT% - 83.7% (JJ - 74.7%)FT/FGA - .334 (JJ - .263)RPG - 2.9 (JJ- 6.4)APG - 1.2 (JJ - 2.6)Going on pure stats...Jenkins was a better scorer than JJ based on a superior outside shot and better use of his body in getting to the rim. He drew more fouls and shot a higher percentage on 2's (finished drives).He is not the athlete JJ is and is between 3-5 inches shorter depending on what site you look, but is built similar being only 14 lighter than JJ was when he came out.This guy is basically a Jamal/JJ hybrid.

If Reef played defense or out of position, I would agree.

This is a perception article. An argument could be made he is 4th valuable when considering salary. Not 4th best. I didn't like his last article either.

http://www.nba.com/h...bers-jon-cooper 51.3/4.0 - The field goal percentage and rebounding total of rookie Ivan Johnson. He was third among NBA rookies in shooting and fourth in rebounding and his three double-doubles tied for sixth. 63.6 - Marvin Williams' three-point shooting percentage in Games Five and Six. Williams shot 3-for-6 in Game five, then went 4-for-5 in the final game. The four three-point FGMs was a career-playoff high. The hot hand carried over from the regular season, when Marvin shot a career-best 38.9 percent from behind the arc during the season. 66 - The number of starts made by point guard Jeff Teague. He was one of only two Hawks to make it through the 66-game season unscathed. Josh Smith was the other. 76.2 - Smith's free throw percentage in the playoffs. It's his best shooting in four years and is second in his career to 2007-08, his first career playoff series. 81.5 - Smoove's free throw shooting total in two series against Boston. Josh has made 53 of his 65 attempts from the charity stripe against the C's. 83 - The number of games lost to injuries by Atlanta bigs Al Horford (55), Jason Collins (21) and Zaza Pachulia (7).

The same reason I give in my Josh thread. You'll never get back equal value at the same price.

Wrong, Wrong Wrong. Because of the new CBA, trading for a player in the last year of his contract increases the chance you get him during free agency because only you can now offer him the best terms on the new deal. Trading for him is circumventing the free agent process. You've given yourself a 1 up in the new negotiations. You can now circumvent the cap to offer him a better deal and you can offer him 1 more year. This is a very big deal. However, Dolfan is very right about the trade kicker. Acquiring a high priced player like Smith whose contract was the result of a matched offer creates a trade kicker of I believe 15%. 15% on 13.2 million dollars is 1.98 million. Trading for Smith is the same as giving away $1.98 million. This is one of the reasons the stories about Josh Smith trade demands are mostly bogus. Smith and his agent are well aware there is a big fat penalty to acquiring him in trade.

Gonna criticize you for a second. When you make statements like "is a top 25-35 player" but don't offer backup information is when you get in trouble. The reality is he might be higher. Two interesting Stats are EWA and VA as a part of Hollinger's PER. Value added is the point difference Hollinger feels the players presence made over the average player. EWA - Estimated Wins Added is number of wins that player added over adding an average player (bench scrub). In both categories, Josh finished 13th this season in his metric of qualified players at 11.2 wins (66 game season). Compared to say Joe Johnson at 8.5 or Lebron James at 23.5. By using a metric to say (he's a top 15 player), I gain some credibility by using these 2 stats. Regardless, this doesn't make me right it only strengthens my argument. Then using PER I could strengthen it. Win shares, defensive win shares would help. +/-, etc. These are total value stats as opposed to just points scored or blocked shots.Less opinions, more facts = more respect.

taking my statement a step further. A real center next to Horford, plus a solid backup at SG (drafted), quality backup point guard signed improves the roster.Teague/good backupJJ/good backupMarvinHorford/JohnsonBogut/Zazais superior to what we have now. It's all about team makeup and value per salary spent.But don't be fooled. Moving JJ should be priority one, not moving Smith.

That is a good question. My post after that explained this. Josh's return on salary is extremely high. Something people forget is you can only have 5 on the court at once and a rotation is only 8-9 players. Championship rosters get the most out of their salary spent on 8-9 players. Use Teague as an example. Being still on his rookie contract, his return on investment is extremely high. He isn't the best PG in the league but his return is excellent for his salary. Now JJ....Although he is a very good player, his salary of 18mil+ requires 150% greater value than say Horford because his salary is 150% of Al's. If you assumed for the top 9 players on every roster would take 95% of the salary for the team and assume teams spend up to the LT. That means an average salary of just under 8 million per player. Okay, now the average team scores about 95 points a game, 90 of those by the top 9 players (I hope you see where I'm going with this). So a 10 point per game player who performs "average" in rebounds/assists/steals/turnovers/blocks against other players at his position (to be fair) would command about 8 million dollars a year in salary. Crazy logic here but that makes Marvin's salary about right. Now look at Josh. Josh scored about 18 points a game. If we only counted points...he would get paid 180% of base or $14.4 million. Now he is top tier in assists/steals at his position and top 15% in Rebounds/Blocks too. Using this commodity approach, he's worth 15-16 million a year. Now compare Joe. 19 points a game means $15.1 million but he under performs or is average for his position in almost every category so he's about a $14 million dollar player. Just a guesstimate here. So in trading Joe, a fair trade is to get back about a $14 million dollar player or a slightly less than upgrades us elsewhere. This is why Joe and 23 for Lowry and 14,16,18 is a better value trade than the one with Scola/Josh. Because you are getting a better chance to replace value. You aren't just replacing the player. If you think of it in player terms, your biases will come out. Think of it as salary as a part of the cap vs numbers produced.Now let's pretend you could trade Josh for a Center (say Bogut level), moving Horford to the 4. Bogut would produce similar to Horford at the 5 with better defense/rebounding. Horford would produce similar or better than Josh at the 4 with better rebounding. Now we're at a trade that works better. Now improve our draft position in that trade enough to get a better PG/backup SG/upgrade over Marvin and I'd make the trade.I'm not against trading Smoove...I just see it in terms of value vs contract. Even if we resign Josh, it won't be for max. Let him walk and you won't get back the same value in cap space. Trade him and because he's a high value player, you won't get back a good return.I have the same logic with Teague/Horford. There is almost no trade you can get for Horford that would replace his impact for his salary. But because Joe makes 6 million more and is in a need position, might be able to flip him in a 3 way.

Because I obviously don't value quality relationships, I researched a list for this discussion. These were NBA salaries this past season. Highlighted are players making more than Josh Smith with either less production or whose teams performed poorly. The idea here is about risk vs value. There is a reason that with Horford out, Joe out we still won a few games. Horford/Smith are the types of players you must have on your roster to win. They help you win games you shouldn't. Go through this list and you'll see it peppered with similar names. The highlighted players are just people who the stats obviously bear out in favor of Smith. This isn't a defense of Smith, his behavior, the rumors about trade requests. It's just a stop and think about this moment. There aren't a lot of these top 3 type talents out there and most of them make more money than Smith. The NBA is a commodities game and you don't sell short on commodities. Kobe Bryant L.A. Lakers $25,244,493 Kevin Garnett Boston Celtics $21,247,044 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs $21,164,619 Rashard Lewis Washington Wizards $21,136,630 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks $19,092,873 Pau Gasol L.A. Lakers $18,714,150 Carmelo Anthony New York Knicks $18,518,574 Amar'e Stoudemire New York Knicks $18,217,705 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic $18,091,770 Joe Johnson Atlanta Hawks $18,038,573 Elton Brand Philadelphia 76ers $17,059,727 Chris Paul L.A. Clippers $16,359,805 Deron Williams Brooklyn Nets $16,359,805 Chris Bosh Miami HEAT $16,022,500 LeBron James Miami HEAT $16,022,500 Dwyane Wade Miami HEAT $15,512,000 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder $15,506,632 Paul Pierce Boston Celtics $15,334,334 Zach Randolph Memphis Grizzlies $15,200,000 Antawn Jamison Cleveland Cavaliers $15,076,715 Rudy Gay Memphis Grizzlies $15,032,144 Andrew Bynum L.A. Lakers $14,900,000 Al Jefferson Utah Jazz $14,000,000 Andre Iguodala Philadelphia 76ers $13,531,750 Carlos Boozer Chicago Bulls $13,500,000 Tyson Chandler New York Knicks $13,107,837 Nene Washington Wizards $13,000,000 Manu Ginobili San Antonio Spurs $12,981,038 Marc Gasol Memphis Grizzlies $12,922,194 Marcus Camby Houston Rockets $12,866,332 Chris Kaman New Orleans Hornets $12,700,000 Tony Parker San Antonio Spurs $12,500,000 Emeka Okafor New Orleans Hornets $12,492,500

I bought my home in the western suburbs for $215k in 2007. I thought I got a good deal when it appraised for $239k. Recent appraisal was $125.5K. Yes, the housing market is that bad and the Cooper is almost new. I look like Fred Flintstone driving it but she loves it.

Now as far as 14, 16, 18, Scola being fair for Smith and 23.Fair, yes I'd agree. Best course, not so much unless there is a background deal to it (like moving Joe and 18 to get into the top 5). Unless you are completely remaking the roster and rebuilding around Horford, Teague - there is no point to just loading up draft picks. Dropping Smith now is the same as saying...we won't win this year. Trading Smith for prospects is giving up on next season. Sure you might make the playoffs but you aren't competing replacing Smith and our bench vets with Scola and draft picks. You need shot creators and you will definately need a defensive stopper. So by the time your 3 draft picks grow up, Scola, JJ will be gone/too old.You have to approach this draft by looking at what salary you have tied up 2+ years from now. Next year we have 60 million spent on 6 players (10 million average). The next year, 51 million on 5 players (10.2 million average). The next year, 2 players signed...Joe, Scola and Al for 35 million dollars...17.5 million each. Let's assume you traded Smith and 23 for 14,16,18 (scola has 3 years left). This year you would have 9 players under contract (skola and 3 picks plus the remaining 5) for about 60 millions. the next year, 9 players for 66 million, the next 6 players for 50.5 million. But that's 3 years from now. Scola and Joe are dinosaurs. The rest of your roster are 3 mid level picks that are growing and 2 years of mid level draft picks. AHEM....lottery.Just because it's fair value doesn't make it a good idea. I could trade my wife's Mini Cooper convertible for a house in stripper alley in East Point and it's a fair trade. That doesn't make it a good idea.

You missed the point of my post I think. My point was, you don't get Josh Smith talent to sign a FA deal for 13 million in the NBA next year. In that list, there are only 6 players I value equally or more than Josh and all make more than 13 million a year.AHF was making the case that putting Josh in the context of value because his expiring status was ludicrous. I was seconding his comment but clarifying. Something about AHF you might want to know is that he tends to leave out details. The details are typically common knowledge to him and he leaves them out assuming other's know these things as well. As far as contracts, trades, go...he's as knowledgable as anyone here. Player evaluation and play style is something he and I argue about occasionally but in the area of CBA, Salary Cap, Trades, etc....you could do alot worse than asking him for clarification.

You didn't even need to go into your explanation. The idea of "expiring contract" was D.O.A. The interesting thing about the "expiring contract" argument is that you only value an expiring contract if A: You really don't value the player. and B: You are expecting a free agent to be available that you can A: entice and B: afford. No one signs Josh Smith, easily a top 1 or 2 player on most teams, and says, "boy I can't wait till his deal is up so I can use his 13 million to sign someone else." Joe Johnson, maybe. The idea of an expiring is like a placeholder for salary you think you can use to get someone better. There is not going to be a 13 million dollar a year free agent next year better than Josh Smith. What follows is the free agent list for next year. Remember, the free agent must want to sign with you, be unrestricted, be better than Josh Smith and available for 13.2 million or less. I've eliminated restricted and team option free agents because if they're worth 13.2 million, the team is bringing them back. Lost cause to discuss. Now show me the player in there that someone will trade significantly for Josh for so they can dump his salary to sign them. That person isn't in the list. You trade for Josh Smith to make him your number 2 option, to entice another player to sign, anchor your Defense or complete your team. Not as a bargaining chip. Point Guard Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers – $17.8 million – Unrestricted Devin Harris, Utah Jazz – $8.5 million – Unrestricted Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors – $10.6 million – Unrestricted Jarrett Jack, New Orleans Hornets – $5.4 million – Unrestricted Beno Udrih, Milwaukee Bucks – $7.4 million – Unrestricted Will Bynum, Detroit Pistons – $3.3 million – Unrestricted Jeremy Pargo, Memphis Grizzlies – $1.0 million – Unrestricted* Earl Watson, Utah Jazz – $2.0 million – Unrestricted Sebastian Telfair, Phoenix Suns – $1.6 million – Unrestricted Daniel Gibson, Cleveland Cavaliers – $4.8 million – Unrestricted C.J. Watson, Chicago Bulls – $3.2 million – Unrestricted Shaun Livingston, Milwaukee Bucks – $3.5 million – Unrestricted Shelvin Mack, Washington Wizards – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Andrew Goudelock, L.A. Lakers – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Shooting Guard (name, team – 2012-13 salary – status) Kevin Martin, Houston Rockets – $12.4 million – Unrestricted Ben Gordon, Detroit Pistons – $12.4 million – Player Option ($13.2 million) Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs – $14.1 million – Unrestricted Corey Maggette, Charlotte Bobcats - $10.9 million – Unrestricted Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies – $3.3 million – Unrestricted J.J. Redick, Orlando Magic – $6.2 million – Unrestricted Stephen Jackson, San Antonio Spurs – $10.1 million – Unrestricted Mike Dunleavy, Milwaukee Bucks – $3.8 million – Unrestricted Anthony Morrow, Brooklyn Nets – $4.0 million – Unrestricted Daequan Cook, Oklahoma City Thunder – $3.1 million – Unrestricted Ronnie Brewer, Chicago Bulls – $4.4 million – Unrestricted Gary Neal, San Antonio Spurs – $0.9 million – Unrestricted* Corey Brewer, Denver Nuggets – $2.7 million – Unrestricted Gary Forbes, Toronto Raptors – $1.5 million – Unrestricted Reggie Williams, Charlotte Bobcats – $2.5 million – Unrestricted Martell Webster, Minnesota Timberwolves – $5.7 million – Unrestricted Raja Bell, Utah Jazz – $3.5 million – Unrestricted Charles Jenkins, Golden State Warriors – $0.8 million – Unrestricted Lester Hudson, Memphis Grizzlies – $0.9 million – Unrestricted Small Forward (name, team – 2012-13 salary – status) Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks – $13.2 million – Unrestricted Dorrell Wright, Golden State Warriors – $4.1 million – Unrestricted Jan Vesely, Washington Wizards – $3.2 million – Team Option ($3.3 million) Linas Kleiza, Toronto Raptors – $4.6 million – Player Option ($4.6 million) Richard Jefferson, Golden State Warriors – $10.2 million – Player Option ($11.1 million) Trevor Ariza, New Orleans Hornets – $7.3 million – Player Option ($7.7 million) James Jones, Miami HEAT – $1.5 million – Player Option ($1.5 million) Rashard Lewis, Washington Wizards – $22.7 million – Unrestricted Kyle Korver, Chicago Bulls – $5.0 million – Unrestricted Luke Walton, Cleveland Cavaliers – $5.8 million – Unrestricted E’Twaun Moore, Boston Celtics – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Julyan Stone, Denver Nuggets – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Power Forward (name, team – 2012-13 salary – status) David West, Indiana Pacers – $10.0 million – Unrestricted DeJuan Blair, San Antonio Spurs – $1.1 million – Unrestricted Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz – $8.6 million – Unrestricted Al Jefferson, Utah Jazz – $15.0 million – Unrestricted Lamar Odom, Dallas Mavericks – $8.2 million – Unrestricted Josh McRoberts, L.A. Lakers – $3.1 million – Unrestricted Jeff Pendergraph, Indiana Pacers – $1.5 million – Unrestricted* Ryan Gomes, L.A. Clippers – $4.0 million – Unrestricted Charlie Villanueva, Detroit Pistons – $8.1 million – Player Option ($8.6 million) Craig Smith, Portland Trail Blazers – $1.1 million – Unrestricted Samardo Samuels, Cleveland Cavaliers – $0.9 million – Unrestricted* Sean Williams, Dallas Mavericks – $0.9 million – Unrestricted Hamady N’Diaye, Washington Wizards – $0.9 million – Unrestricted* Justin Harper, Orlando Magic – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Josh Harrellson, New York Knicks – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Jon Leuer, Milwaukee Bucks – $0.8 million – Unrestricted* Center (name, team – 2012-13 salary – status) Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic – $19.5 million – Unrestricted Andrew Bynum, L.A. Lakers – $16.1 million – Unrestricted Samuel Dalembert, Houston Rockets – $6.7 million – Unrestricted Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves – $4.8 million – Unrestricted* Tiago Splitter, San Antonio Spurs – $3.9 million – Unrestricted* Zaza Pachulia, Atlanta Hawks – $5.3 million – Unrestricted Brad Miller, Minnesota Timberwolves – $5.1 million – Unrestricted Kurt Thomas, Portland Trail Blazers – $1.3 million – Unrestricted Timofey Mozgov, Denver Nuggets – $3.1 million – Unrestricted* Johan Petro, Brooklyn Nets – $3.5 million – Unrestricted Dexter Pittman, Miami HEAT – $0.9 million – Unrestricted* Jon Brockman, Milwaukee Bucks – $1.0 million – Unrestricted Brandan Wright, Dallas Mavericks – $0.9 million – Unrestricted Jerome Jordan, New York Knicks – $0.8 million – Unrestricted*

Okay, let's take a look at the different major points of value in trading for a player.1. current player contribution2. long term value3. current cap situation4. current player salary5. expected player salary6. marketabilityUsing my 2007 draft result (random year older than 3 years..FYI).1. Josh would rank an A/A- in category 1. Someone like Marvin would rank a C. Remember, this is not in relation to their salary, just overall production. Lebron an A+, etc.2. Josh would rank high here but it goes to mention that since he is an athletic player, 30 is his ceiling and you'll start seeing a decline.3. This is a situational stat for the team trading for and against. Take Golden State who has 10 players and 56 million committed vs. the Hawks who have 6 players an 60 million committed. Josh's salary isn't a hinderance to them, 2 more draft picks with low salaries hold less value. Houston has 11 players commited...5 of which are on team options with only 30 million committed with 11 million more in options. Josh, Joe, Marvin's salaries are of no consequence to them. They actually help as they are required to meet the league minimum. Skola's 9 million isn't really helpful to us as we would only gain 4 million under the LT but what we add in draft pick salary makes up the difference. It's a salary wash with lower expected production (rookies replacing league min vets).4. Josh's salary of 13.2 million is acceptible given his production.5. Josh's expected salary could push 16 million next year if he produces. Sending him to Houston where he gets a chance to be the man could push his value and ensure his bargaining rights next year.6. Josh is a highly marketable player. Boston is chomping at the bit for him right now. However, his antics and shot selection would wear out their welcome in an established market.Houston, GS are examples of optimal trading partners. But Houston lacks the pieces to get Smith without greatly up'ing the ante in picks.

LOL....you made snort a little.