thecampster

You guys overvalue draft picks, especially non lottery picks way too much. Take a look at the 2007 draft.1. Greg Oden - 11.1 / 8.5 / .9 (66 games missed last 2 years)2. Kevin Durant - 28 / 8 / 3.53. Al Horford - 15 / 9 / 3.5 (adjusted)4 Mike Conley - 12.7 / 2.5 / 6.55. Jeff Green - 9.8 / 3.3 / .076. Yi Jianlian - 2.6 / 1.6 / .27. Corey Brewer - 8.9 / 2.5 / 1.58. Brandan Wright - 6.9 / 3.6 / .39. Joakim Noah - 10.2 / 9.8 / 2.510. Spencer Hawes - 9.6 / 7.3 / 2.711. Acie Law - 5.1 / 1.3 / 1.812. Thaddeus Young - 12.8 / 5.2 / 1.213. Juian Wright - 3.6 / 2.3 / 1.114. Al Thornton - 6.0 / 2.6 /.515. Rodney Stuckey - 14.8 / 2.6 / 3.816. Nick Young - 13 / 2 / 1 (adjusted)17. Sean Williams - 3.7 / 4 / 118. Marco Belinelli - 11.8 / 2.6 / 1.519. Javaris Crittendon - 5.3 / 2.9 / 2.620. Jason Smith - 9.9 / 4.9 / .921. Daeguan Cook - 5.5 / 2.1 /.322. Jared Dudley - 12.7 / 4.6 / 1.723. Wilson Chandler - 9.4 / 5.1 / 2.124. Rudy Fernandez - 8.7 / 2.1 / 2.425. Morris Almond - 3.5 / 2.0 / .526. Aaron Brooks - 9.6 / 1.1 /4.227. Aaron Afflalo - 15.2 / 3.2 / 2.428. Tiago Splitter - 9.3 / 5.2 / 1.129. Alando Tucker - N/A30. Petteri Koponen - N/AJosh Smith - 18.8 / 9.6 / 3.9Total 2007 picks with more points per game - 1 (Durant)Total 2007 picks with more rebounds/game - 1 (Noah by .2)Total 2007 picks with more assists/game - 2 (Conley, Brooks - both PG)Are you freaking kidding me? Scola and 1 pick? Are you freaking kidding me?Draft picks are a crap shoot. Smith's numbers outperform every person in the 2007 draft except Durant. If you could go back and put Smith in the 2007 draft, Durant would go 1, Smith 2, Horford 3, Noah 4. And you guys are like (but this is a deep draft, blah blah). This isn't like JJ's situation where he is 5 years older and in a massive contract. This is Josh in his prime.

San Antonio also had a guy named Duncan. Atlanta doesn't.

I completely agree. There are exciting game changing players (like Josh) but then there are players that every championship team has on the roster. Horford is one of those players. He is just a winner.

That's 11.67% Sothron, not 4 %. 7/60=.1167Still not overwhelming but it isn't 4%.Now...everyone who knows anything about me on this board knows I am not a fan of JJ's contract or his style of play but as multiple posters have pointed out, Amnesty is not the way to go.First of all, regardless of whether or not you amnesty Joe you will be somewhere between the cap and the LT when you complete the roster. Every dollar of Joe's salary not picked up by the bidding team, you still have to pay. It just doesn't count against the cap/LT. But in essence it is almost the same cost as a Luxury Tax infraction. The only difference is you don't incur multiple year penalties.The "answer" with JJ is to take back shorter bad contracts and a draft pick in exchange for someone taking on the albatross. The perfect trade partner this year is Golden State who have Biedrins and JRich whose combined salary is = to JJ's but half as long and are easier to move individually. GS has the 7th pick in the draft and are in desperate need of a veteran SG/SF to help them take the next step.Three possible scenarios come to mind.Biedrins and #7 for JJ orJRich and #7 for JJ orBiedrins, JRich, #7 and #30 for JJ and #43.I prefer trade 3 and would give youTeague???/JRichSmith/MarvinHorfordPachulia/BiedrinsPicks 7, 23 and 30. Of which you pick either a PG/SG at 7, Fab Melo at 23 and best player available at 30. You have 10 players under contract and have spent about 66 million. You need 3 players and have 6 million to spend. That is your best case scenario.Amnesty Joe and you can't even get this.One more note on GS. They have a 3 million dollar trade exception they need to use.

As a writer, I can tell you that you write things and sit back puffing your chest at the brilliance you've penned. Then others read it and the general consensus is what you've written is a piece of garbage. You scratch your own head in disbelief at the lack of appreciation and insist on rewriting it. More input yields worse results.That is what happened with this article. He repackaged crap and expected a different result. The writer focused on 2 things in the Josh Smith realm and 2 things in the Larry Drew realm and tried to call it a season recap.

I didn't respond to this and so I wanted to now. Deron has a player option for this year for about 17.8 million I believe. Assuming he wants to play with Dwight, it would make sense that he exercises his option to be in Brooklyn for the upcoming season.Now there is a winning model as old as time in the NBA. Elite 2 way Center + drive and dish PG + either knock down shooter or off the ball big man. So in that scenarioDeron + Dwight + either a great shooter or Josh Smith = championship.Why this works? This is all about "the late double". In the NBA, the main defensive weapon of every team is a late trap/double. Teams use this to perfection against us with JJ. So a point guard that attacks the rim with eyes up so he can dish keeps the ball moving and negates the double at the 3 point line. You can't leave your man to double of the point guard will beat you to the spot and hit the man you just left. You can't foul him because he'll hit his free throws. The low post double is negated by the center pushing the ball out to the knock down shooter or hitting the opposing big man moving to the basket (ie..the definition of both Josh and Al). This negates doubling the center. Dwight never had either the PG or the low post big man in Orlando. He had the shooters but too many of them....not enough ball handling threat. The shooter or off the ball big man are the outlet, the "option".Deron and Dwight are not stupid and have been moving toward this for years. Both will be free agents after this year. The options are 4 fold.Option 1: Deron stays with Brooklyn and Dwight signs there. Their cap situation portends this to be the plan.Option 2: Dwight stays in Orlando and Deron signs there. Their cap situation is not condusive and would require trades.Option 3: Both men sign with a new team with lots of cap room in the 13/14 season.Option 4: A team trades for either Dwight or Deron and than makes a play for the other the following year. This is the only possibility for Atlanta and would require trading away JJ, Al, Marvin....Teague becomes expendable with Deron here. Those 4 salaries are slightly higher than Dwight/Deron would require. It would require trading for both as you have to give away to get and to negate the cap holds.Now messing this up are 2 things. First, Boston's aging core which will eventually clear up room. Second, Josh Smith's contract ends at the same time creating an opportunity to put the perfect player with Deron/Dwight, an off the ball cutting, finishing big man. Additionally, Horford is signed reasonably and could easily fill the same role. Deron/Dwight with either Al/Josh would be hard to beat.Now I use us as an example not because I think that is what will happen, but to show what is possible for Deron/Dwight. If they go/sign together and get one of the other formula players, they are NBA contenders every year in the same mold as Parker/Duncan/Ginobilli.

A better example of your argument would be:3 wall street economists talking in the back of a limo Diesel is driving. One economist says, I'm thinking of investing in fund x, it's a fund comprised of 12 stocks of which 10 have historically produced at a high level and 2 have had mixed to poor returns. The 3 economists determine that the fund is reasonably priced and the overall production is in the top 10% of funds managed. They decided to recommend the fund because of the value and overlook the 2 poorly performing stocks. Diesel hearing this goes around to all of his friends and tell them to never listen to the economists again because he heard them recommending a fund with 2 bad stocks in it. He recorded their conversation and plays it for his friends. One of them says, "Dude, they point out the overall value and the performance of the 10". Diesel responds, "There are 2 losers in the fund, they're dead wrong".Now the friends debate among themselves and because they are familiar with the 2 dog stocks yell "Listen to Diesel, he knows best" and ignore the advice of the wall street economists. This isn't "Trading Places".

Let me get this straight Diesel. Kenny Smith, the tv analyst, 10 year NBA vet and Larry Drew, the NBA head coach, 10 year assistant coach and 11 year NBA player are wrong and you are right? You know, some of the hubris filled opinions of the members of this board get to be a bit much at times. Mike Woodson, "I think there are a lot of teams that would like to have Josh".

Kevin Garnett says a lot of things.

uh, no. We ran ISOJOE, ISOJamal more than anything else. We ran the curl plays at the top of the key more than PNR. We ran Bibby/Horf or Bibby Josh PNR or PNPop as the alt set when the curl wasn't working or to give the iso'ers a play off.This is why so many of us 2/3 years ago were screaming for the change to more pick and roll. It was highly effective.

Although I would consider this, there is one thing stopping me. Both Beeno and RJ have Player options for 2013/2014. Marvin also has an option for that year. So effectively what you are doing is committing yourself for 27.5 million in 2013/14 in exchange for not having JJ's ridiculous contract the following 2 years. You had better be sure you are getting a stud at #7 with that risk. If all 3 players exercise their option (not sure why they wouldn't since none would get 7.5, 9 or 11 million from anyone else), you have spent your money for the Dwight, Deron sweepstakes and only Marvin could be amnestied from that group. What this means is you'll have at least $43 million in committed salaries that year and you still have to sign Smith that year. You need to be sure you can move Biedrins or RJ afterwards or this deal is of little benefit the following year.

LOL - I was thinking something very similar.

I think he conjoined two thoughts there. Thought one. We ran pick n roll with Bibby and that worked well, better than our iso and rotation sets.Thought two. We should find someone capable of running it all the time since it worked well in Bibby's limited use of it. Damn if only Bibby was the younger, quicker, better defensive Bibby of 5 years previous.

Again, just thinking out loud here but JJ played better at SF than SG last year.

+ a million on this. What people on this board aren't realizing is the defensive presence Marvin, Josh and Al bring on the floor. However, they are not shot creators. They can score and well but they are not going to manufacture offense for themselves. Joe however is not a facilitator. He is quite the opposite. The ball dies in his possession. There are teams where Joe would be a godsend. 5 years ago, he was that for us. But he is not that now. A facilitator and a knock down shooter would greatly help the offensive games of Pachulia, Horford, Smith and Williams.This is why I wish Teague were a few inches taller. He could work on his shot and be a great 2 guard and we could bring in a Kendall Marshall type. But you can't teach height.

1/2 of rebounding is system

Add Joe to Kyrie Irving and you have a good back court. IrvingJJGeeJamisonVarejaoIs a nice starting 5. Contender, no but back in the playoffs...probably. They have a second 1st round pick (24) and an early 2nd round pick. They need to sell tickets and have salary room.

Exactly and like I said, Cleveland seems to be the perfect target to offload Joe's contract, get a high level pick and player in return.

JJ is one or two years from an 8 million dollar a year player. Mark my words, JJ will be our 3rd option in 2 years. Best to get better now. Plan for the long haul, not win now.

Bradley Beal can flat out shoot, the perfect complement for a draw and kick point guard.with Horford/Smith running pick n roll the SG double has to come and that leaves Beal in the corner for 3. It's Utah all over again. Beal and Marshall are ready right now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhaTKn8oFg8Marshall is no project. He is a point guard...true as can be.

Now moving forward with "the plan". I love Jeff Teague. But this isn't about liking a player. This is about "The Plan".If there was any way to move Teague, Marvin or Zaza to move up high enough in the draft for Kendall Marshall (14th should do it), you do it and don't look back. Ignore his defense, he is a legit pass first creator.If there is any way to move JJ for a player plus 6-10 and you can replace him with Brandon Beal who is a good shooting combo guard. Cleveland for Luke Walton and the 4th pick would work. Then with the 23rd pick, you pray Fab Melo is still there and you take him.Let's assume you move Teague to Phoenix for the 13th pick and draft Marshall. Move JJ to Cleveland for Walton, filler and the 4th pick. You then have.MarshallBealSmith/Marvin/WaltonHorford/IvanPachulia/Fab MeloIn committed Salaries you are still below the cap (about 51 million plus cap holds)..no where near the LT and only 4 spots to fill. That is a plan...You now have the point guard to run pick n roll, pick n pop with your 3 bigs, you have size and defense. Marvin and Walton would be expirings (Marvin does have a 7.5 player option)...you could resign Smith and make a run at quality free agents or trade for someone else's cap excess (a Marvin for a 14 million dollar player kind of a thing to get someone under the LT).Execute something like that and in 2013 Free Agents will take notice that you have a plan to win and are executing it.

We lost in essence 2 drafts picks for a "win now" mentality. For a series win over the Magic. It stings now but trading away pieces, bad drafting, offering excessive contracts, not re-up'ing pieces and making them test the market (ie..bad blood) consistently cost us. At the time I was all for acquiring Hinrich and still love Kirk....but the price was too steep. I'm man enough to admit I was wrong.

That one move there highlights the problem. The "win now" attitude pollutes all thinking toward winning. The idea of getting Hinrich was to win now. It was a good move, but making such a move requires making more moves down the road. Exercise good scouting with the 19th pick and you don't have to make a move later. The example is Josh Smith. Josh was a 17th pick, good judgement and good value at 17...much better than Chillz with the 6th in the same draft. I'm not saying don't pull the trigger on a deal to win, but I am saying you can't be so hungry to win now that you sacrifice the future. The same goes for mortgaging the present. I started this thread because of the "trade Josh for a pick" garbage. Honestly, I was suprised and relieved at those who almost unanimously understand the value in doing so with JJ would be. If Hinrich brings back 19 + Jordan Crawford, JJ should bring back a decent player (better than Crawford) and 6-10. It is a combination of keeping Smith, enticing others, planning for the future. If you want to know what top tier free agents truly value, it is a team with a plan. You have a plan to compete...a solid plan...and free agents will look at you because marketing and money follow the plan.

Winning a championship in Miami as opposed to starring on a non championship team in NY/Chi trumps for marketability. Had they won the first year, every bad boy wannabee would have been wearing their gear.