thecampster

I don't see Joe going 0-9 from 3 again in the playoffs this year. Probably the worst offensive game you'll see from him in the series and it's still a win. 1 down, 11 to go.

40-26 That works out to a 50 and 32 season if you play 82 games. 6 wins better than last year without Horford/Crawford.Now the trick is to get by Boston in the first round, and healthy, so we face the Bulls with Horford and Zaza back.

So it's December 2011 and you tell me that Horford will miss 55 games due to injury, Kirk will be out for 18, Joe for 6, Marvin for 8, McGrady will complain for shots, Zaza and Twin will both go down during the year leaving you to rely on a no name who goes by Ivan Johnson to carry the load at center at 6'8" and only Josh and Teague will play in every game. The team will experience a death in the family, a birth and an apendectomy. I'd say, well we could use a lottery pick anyway.Then tell me we've got home court in the first round and a .600 winning percentage and I'll take that.Then tell me the games we could have won:Jan 3 @ Chi - lose by 2, free throws sink the teamJan 5 Mia - lose by 7 thanks to officiating and free throwsJan 11 @Ind - Horford injury sinks our chances, lose by 12.Feb 29 GSW - lose by 3. 10 missed free throws and 34% shooting sink the teamMar 7 @ Mia - lose by 3. Officiating kills the team as Miami only commits 12 fouls in the game.Mar 9 @ Det - lose by 1. Rebounding and missed free throwsMar 19 Bos - Lose by 3. Smith and Teague are a combine 9 of 34 in the game.Mar 31 Phi - Lose by 5. Bad Team D brought on by dead legs.Apr 11 @ Bos - Lose by 2. F'ing Boston.Apr 22 NYK - Lose by 1. Defense and no inside presense left.10 games total. All winnable games 1 was vs Chicago, 2 vs Miami.These were all 10 winnable games. We are 10 games back of Chicago, 7 of Miami. Winning the Chicago Game and the Miami games plus any 6 of the other 7 and we would have been top seed.No Horford, a slew of injuries, team chemistry issues. I'll take that this year. I think we are better than the record shows and and the ECF are a possibility if the team comes together and Horford/Zaza are back for round 2.

In the midst of our so called "star" players, lies young Jeffrey Thomas Teague; I believe if Jeffrey plays up to his potential, we can be unstoppable, he can be our most impactful player.

The key for Teague is consistency in his jumper and pull up jumper. His speed will only take him so far if opposing point guards can just play off of him. A summer of intense work on his mid range pull up and long jumper will elevate Teague offensively to a force.

Already looking at graduate school? That's a bold move right there. If he's sure he wants that then cool, but I think that is too far away at this stage to actually be certain.Congrats on being close to deciding on a school though! It is certainly a different aspect in college to play a sport but its a good different. Really teacheds you to manage time efficiently.

He's wanted to study this since he was 10.

Any schools looking at him?

Wanted to update you guys on this. We're working with Savannah State right now. They have the degree program he wants through graduate degree (marine biology). Had our visit yesterday. Went very well. We're just working out the details now. But 90% sure he'll be an SSU Tiger next year.

That is +/-.I wouldn't dismiss Diesel's points, you need variation in order to identify impacts. Law of Large Numbers will apply for a set of draws from independent and identical distributions. The events we realize in collecting data on +/- do not follow this assumption in my opinion, there are patterns to substitution (who starts off every game and finishes every game?). Now LLN can still go through without iid assumptions, but it is usually easiest to just transform the data to fit these assumptions (which is what the adjusted +/- is doing). Even correcting for this, LLN is only an asymptotic theory and we are working with small samples here (only 61 games).I suggest looking at the earlier links I posted and looking at the standard errors associated with the 1-year and 2-year adjusted +/-.

No, it breaks down to scoring, not just up or down scoring and it breaks down defense and offense.JJ for example makes us better offensively but worse defensively..Same with Teague. Josh is better on both ends which is why his number is higher. This means that on the defensive end of the floor, Josh makes his teammates better. Something few metrics show.The argument (our guard bench players are better) doesn't pan out. Hinrich/Green have severe negatives in this category.

obviously those arguing don't understand the post. The post states that the team scores more, allows less points with Josh in the game. Furthermore, the differential is greater than for any other player on the team. This is a year long metric and per Diesel's argument of sub pattern, the law of averages always bear out and we have a 3 year long metric here. Over 220 games, multiple teammates, different sub patterns, etc...There are no "circumstances" that change that.This isn't like PER or +/-. This is "TEAM" scores more, gives up less with the player on the floor. The gives up less means the team defense is better with this player on the floor. The scores more means the team offense is better with this player on the floor. The question was, does he make people better or just himself better. The obvious answer is everyone based on this metric.The eyeball test is the worst test FYI as personal bias comes into play.

Diesel,I'm going to do my best to answer this by only responding to that which deserves an answer.Josh yelling at Teague isn't the issue the board made it to be. Josh is a team captain and it's called leadership to dress someone down.Does he make his teammates better? There are numerous metrics to measure this. Let's try +/- for the year. A bad daily metric but a very good season metric.http://www.82games.com/1112/1112ATL1.HTM Josh leads the team at +162 +4.0 per 48 minutesTeague is second at +138 +3.6 per 48JJ third at +110 +3.0 per 48(for you Diesel) Marvin -10 -.4 per 48What this means is that during Josh's time on the floor this season, the team has scored 162 more points than it's opponents. JJ/Teague/Joe are on the floor together a great deal. This means 1 of 2 things. Either taking Josh off the floor affects JJ and Teague's numbers substantially or taking JJ/Teague off the floor has no effect on team play comparitably. ie, Josh on the bench has a negative effect on Teague and Joe's +-. They are better with Josh on the floor. Conversely, Since Josh's number is high it is safer to say his team plays better with him on the floor.Last year vs this. Last year we won 53.6% of our games. This year without Horford for 50, Hinrich for 18, Zaza for a few, Joe for 6 and no Crawford, etc...only Teague/Josh playing in every game our winning percentage is up (59%) with 5 home games left. With Josh playing a more central role, the team has improved with lesser personnel.On February 22, Joe sat out with the knee tendenitis. In the 6 games he was out, the Hawks were 4-2 (66.7% winning percentage). It was this game that the focus of the offense moved from JJ to Josh. Prior to this game, the Hawks were 19-13 (Al for 11 games). In this game on the 22nd, Willie Green attempted to fill Joe's role and led the team in shots taken. We lost to the Knicks by 17. After this game, Josh became the focal point of the offense and the team has gone 17-11 since. Virtually no change in winning percentage despite not having Al for any games, missing Zaza for 2 and Joe for 5. But the best indicator comes from Josh's season stats http://www.82games.com/1112/11ATL12.HTM (bottom of page). Team Offense when he's on court per 100 possessions is 105.6, off court is 100.8. +4.8Team Defense when he's on court per 100 possessions is 101.2, off court is 106.0 - 4.8 (this one is huge).Every 100 possessions we are +9.7 points better off when Josh is on the court (rounds to 9.7).By contrast we were +6.9 per 100 possessions with Teague, +3.5 with JJ.The team is better with Josh on the floor. In both JJ and Teague's case the defense is better when they are not on the floor (1.5 and 1.8 respectively), but in Josh's case the defense falls off dramatically when he exits the floor and this metric is the proof.More contrast offense and defense total.with Al +6.7Marvin -2.4Ivan -4.6Hinrich -7.7Green -9.0This shows that our emotions and eyes can be deceiving. This particular metric is directly related to wins. No player on the team directly affects the game more when discussing impact than Josh. This is season long, the best sample and really can't be argued with. This metric measures floor impact counting both offensive and defensive ends and only measures team scoring. To show you this metric is consistent, Last year Josh was +8.9, Joe was +5.8, Al +4.3. The prior year (Josh's supposed best year with a higher FG % his numbers fell to +7.7), Joe was +3.6 and Al was +10.7.Josh consistently makes his teammates better, the numbers all bear that out.

Huh??? Since you were the only reply up til that point, who was it that was blaming Smith? No one even mentioned Smith.

I believe he's referring to the board always blaming Smith for everything. It was hyperbole.

Joe was putrid tonight on offense. Just putrid.

You know I love to pound on Joe but the truth of it is the whole team was lethargic. They did everything in slow motion. Joe's missed jump shots/bad offense was a reflection of an entire team not showing to play.By far Josh had the best game but in the 3rd quarter he had a play that explained the whole night. He blocked a shot at the basket, grabbed the ball and turned to drive the ball upcourt and dribbled it off the back of his own leg and the ball went out of bounds. Everyone played sloppy, dirty.

The difference is Al's shooting % is close to 50%, Rad is a shooter, Zaza's jumpers are no more than 10 feet and those a very few, Zaza stays in the paint where he belongs. All we are asking is for Josh to play to what his strenth is - inside where he gets points or goes to the foul line.

No, the basis of his argument is that jumpers aren't his job based on position.

The problem is Teague had been our most efficient scorer in that game and to shut him down only to replace his production with a brick mason is retarded.

With Teague's ability to get to the front of the rim, I surely hope that next year we transition to JT0 creating off the dribble with less than 10 seconds on the clock then motion creating a jump shot for Joe, Josh. (hey look, my first LD criticism of the year).

What's funny is all the haters like to bash Josh for the last few second 3 pointer, but yet knows if the was a play drawn up by LD? Better yet, without Josh we wouldn't even came close to winning that game.

See, here's the deal. I think the 3 at the end is a bonehead play. I have no problem with calling it like it is. He should have tried to create there, not shoot with 5 seconds left. There was time. It was a stupid hero play. My contention is 7 missed free throws, Marvin/Joe/Pargo/Green deserve way more hate. If Pargo/Green make just one shot in regulation, the game ends in regulation. If Joe isn't 5-17 but shoots a reasonable percentage, the game is over. There is one play in particular that stands out to me.

end of first quarter, Joe gets a long pass on a breakaway. He's challenged. It's a gimme foul draw, the player is sailing by him. Joe shy's away from the contact and tries to go under the basket for a reverse and hits the bottom of the iron. He could have got an and-1 and instead the ball went the other way for a 2. 5 point turnaround because Joe doesn't do contact at the rim.

Oh really. Becuz I forgot u have to bow down to Josh and his jumpers if ur a hawks fan.

And guess wat, if Josh played with any sense he could shut me up. BUT he doesn't.

LOL - So says the Josh Smith arch nemesis online. Come on, admit it, you wear KG PJs...I see your avatar...The PJ's come with a cape, right? Do you have a secret identity? Naismith's Shadow?

It's old. We all get it, you don't like the guy. But you just made an Ivan Johnson thread about Josh Smith. Beyond that, it's absurd. The guy is 1st or second in every statistical category on the team. Al went down and they have a better winning percentage than last year. The only 2 guys to play every game, Josh/Teague.

Team rank

ppg - 1st

bpg - 1st

rpg - 1st

spg - 2nd

apg - 2nd

At least Diesel has a point when he hates on Marvin, Marvin is a disappointment and has been moved to the bench.

Joe haters can point to his lack of leadership, average numbers vs contract.

But your hate of Josh is comical.

nope, troll is someone who logs on to a site just to rile up the natives. Nothing wrong with disagreeing, but constantly hammering one person with this garbage looks like he's trying to achieve an agenda. Again, casual. Not someone who is here everyday and knows all the members. It's like he's competing to replace Diesel with his "trade Marvin" threads.

You're making the false assumption that I'm blaming Josh for this loss, which I'm not. The bench was awful, JJ was awful, Teague had several bad turnovers, we got dominated on the boards, etc. But that doesn't mean that Josh is beyond reproach for his playing right into the hands of the defense and for refusing to give the ball up the PG or for not making the extra pass at the end to a wide open Teague.I don't give a damn if is Josh was 20-20 on his long jumpers, he's a PF and he should be shooting the overwhelming majority of his shots in the paint, because #1 he's far more likely to be successful from there and #2 it actually puts him in position to help us on the glass.

When Al comes back, will you stand for no more jumpers for AL? Zaza? Radman?

Well Im not sorry u feel that way lol

Sorry brother, he's right. A casual visitor to the site would mistake you as trolls or Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce in drag.

Calling Josh Smith or any player an idiot IS NOT a personal insult.

Calling another member of this site an idiot IS a personal insult.

Now, regarding your theory here, which I'm sure you must see as being far-fetched, it doesn't work for me as we've seen Josh do this the entire season against the Celtics and last night was far and away his most successful game against them because he was hitting his jumper. There's zero chance that a team that draws up a play for Pargo to win or for Josh Smith to shoot a 3 to avoid losing are clever enough to try and hide our true abilities by not using them. Not that that is even clever anyway, but the point is valid.

And I can't prove you wrong? Doc specifically said before the game that they WANT Josh to sit outside and shoot jumpers and he's done it all season against them and he's been awful at it until last night and then was awful when it counted most last night. What is there to prove or disprove? The facts are that Josh is far more skilled at scoring inside than outside. The facts are that last night he shot an overwhelming majority of his shots outside. The facts are that Boston wants him to do that. The facts are that it backfired on him again. The facts are that we lost the game. Am I missing something?

I'll take a shot. I've got a bone to pick with you and "the shot chart". Josh shot a 3 to end the game and missed. Prior to that point, he was 9 of 18, 50 %. Scored 20, had 11 boards and 5 assists and was +9 for the game (meaning we outscored Boston by 9 while he was in the game). The turnovers were a concern but once again, "Josh" isn't the reason we lost the game. The bench played a combined 76 minutes and scored 13 points total. JJ shot 5 of 17 (29.4%), 0-5 from 3. Pargo and Green a combined 0-8 and a -11 and -1. Marvin played 29 minutes and was a -17.

I'd call you a name but that's obviously off-limits. But seriously. Joe is 29% from the field 0-5 from 3 (again against a playoff team) and a non-factor the rest of the game. Marvin stunk, bench stunk, only Teague/Zaza really showed besides Josh. And what are you talking about? Shot charts on the guy who was 9 of 19 - 47.4%, or 50% before the last shot which was just desperation at that point.

Blame JJ, blame Marvin, blame the bench, Hinrich, but don't blame one of only 3 people who showed up and had a good game.

Poor Ivan...He had made it almost through the season without incident almost guaranteeing himself a contract next season. After all the trouble he had overseas, I was rooting for him.

He does it to spite you. I was shocked when I heard it really but he was sitting in the locker room saying, "I ain't passing to JT-0 anymore. I heard ticks off this guy on Hawksquawk and I can't stand that guy". You should sue!

Offense is nice, but Defense wins.

I am sorry but this is just wrong. Perimeter SG's like Joe should be around 45-48% so yeah Joe is shooting just a hair under average at 44.9%. A inside PF should be shooting around 50%, see David Lee as a pretty good comparison. Josh on the other hand is shooting 45%. Anyway the point is that Joe shooting percentage is average because he takes and make outside shots. Josh shooting percentage is below average because he takes and misses outside shots. Making only 37% of his outside shots according to 82games.com

20 shots a game....50% down to 45% is 1 missed shot a game. 2 points. If that gets you better opportunities for other players (like a massive improvement in your shooting and point guards shooting percentage) and an increase in foul shots plus a reduction in turnovers. I'll take 1 less made shot a game.

I also wonder about the "shot selection" comments. Teague is playing well, but Teague is not a pass first point guard. Bibby was not a good creator. I wonder how much Josh's shooting percentage, shot selection would improve with a facilitator on the floor. The same could be said for Al. Ever since they started running lots of pick n rolls from the slot, their offense has looked good.

boston has a brutal stretch of 8 games in 1 days 2 back to backs, 1 back to back to back. Miami, Atlanta x2, Orlando and NY all in the schedule. Atlanta get's them on fresh legs as the 2nd game of a back to back and then the last game of the stretch. That will be one tired Boston squad. We could/should win both.Atlanta on the other hand only has 1 back to back left (home/away with Toronto). Next 2 games are on the road but with tons of rest against Boston/Orlando. Then 6 home, 1 away (Toronto).