thecampster

See, it isn't personal. I think JJ is a very good basketball player. I think he does make a team better. I just think giving him a max contract and Lebron type of respect is misplaced. He is what he is. He's a good basketball player, a little soft, a good shooter and excellent in catch and shoot...he just isn't a max player in my opinion. Max players make the shot in regulation and finish with 26 points. Max players close it out in the first overtime. He's good but not max. He's worth about 12 to 13 IMO.

Just went back and checked some schedules.Orlando's is only a little harder with games against: Dallas, Boston, Atl, Denver x2, NY x2, Philly x2. I'm not sure we're gonna catch them for the 3 spot. 9 potential losses of which we are 1. But no Miami, Chicago, OKC, Spurs or elite teams. Much depends on the head to head matchup in Orlando next month.Indiana has a tough schedule ahead. Miami, San Antonio, Minny, Boston, Houston, Chicago, NY, OKC, Philly x2, That's 10 potential losses.Miami's schedule is brutal with games left against: Indiana, Dallas, OKC, Memphis, Philly, NY and Boston x3. At least 9 tough games with Orlando not far behind.Boston might not make the playoffs. Their schedule is horrendous. Miami x3, Chicago, Atl, Philly, NY, Ind, Orlando, Spurs, Minny are all on their schedule. 11 losable games...I'd guess they lose as many as 8 of those.

50 games in 89 days. Miami...48 games in 91 days.18 games without Kirk Hinrich. 39 games without Al Horford. One of your main reserves, T-Mac has bad knees and can't play in back to backs and has missed 10 games. 6 games without Joe Johnson about 10 played with him hurt and not helping the team by being out there, 9 without Marvin Williams. Only 2 players have played in all 50 games (Teague and Smith). Yet, they have a 60% win percentage. I'm very proud of them, all of them.

Yes, I did mean in the 3rd when he got his 4th foul at about the 9 minute mark, LD took him out. We had about a 10 point lead at the time. They took the lead at about the 3 minute mark (6 minutes later). What do you say about the 2 he missed at the end of regulation that would have won the game? He had a good look, floater in the lane, no hand in his face with 3 seconds to spare.All I'm saying is be fair.

I really thought so too. He went out with about a 10 point lead and 7 minutes later we were down 5 and I just couldn't watch.

First off...great win tonight. The Hawks now have 1 day off and then back to backs with travel against Milwaukee (away) and Chicago (home). Then they have 1 day off and then back to backs with New York (home) and Philly(away). No matter what happens in the next 6 days, that was the hard part. The Hawks will then have 3 days off and then a home against Charlette, Then a day off and then a back to back Detroit (Home), Charlette (Away). Then another 3 days off. Finish this stretch and then it's 3 games against bottom dwellers in 10 days. The schedule ends then with Boston, day off, Orlando day off....both on the road. Then 7 games in 12 days, 6 at home, 1 on the road, Tor, Tor, Det, Bos, Det, LAC, Dal. A very easy end of the schedule. Not saying we'll win them all but the scores of back to backs, or 3 in a rows are done and we'll get a day off or 2 more compared to other teams. The Hawks and Bulls have each played 50 games (though Chicago started 2 days before we did), Miami / Indiana have only played 47 (easiest for sure but more at the end of the year than others) and everyone else in the east playoffs is in the middle. Just get through the next 4 games and it gets much easier from there. Cross your fingers and pray Al is back for the playoffs.

For the 394th time, Joe isn't the team's best player. Not statistically, not ball handling, not passing, not at all. Joe is the team's best one on one scorer. There is much more to basketball than that.

It's okay, you can take your foot out of your mouth now.

Actually, against small centers, Marvin can play the post. Not kidding.

Possibility 1. Kirk will be resigned for about half of his current salary. That will free up a few million.Possibility 2. Kirk will be signed and traded bringing back a player.Possibility 3. Marvin is traded freeing up money or bringing back a working piece.Possibility 4. One of the major 4 pieces is traded. a. Joe is traded - this will bring back the most salary, the lowest talented player/group of players. b. Josh is traded - this will bring back the second most salary, a more talented player/group of players. c. Al is traded - this brings back the least amount of salary but could bring back the most talent (Al is viewed that well around the league) d. Teague and or Zaza is paired with any of the above listed 5 players in a wholesale roster shakeup. I have my opinions, ideas see below.Now for the reality check. There is a deal or two out there but Joe is by far the hardest to move due to his contract and age. You need to take back someone elses problem to move Joe. Josh has a few suitors but not as many willing to put up with what is seen as his flaws. Al is highly marketable and is seen as a commodity in the league (ie if injury prone Andrew Bogut gets you Monta Ellis, what does Al get you?).In a perfect world, I package JJ, Zaza + for a legit Center and play Al at the 4, Josh at the 3 but I just don't see other teams doing that. So the alternative roster major overall is either Al or Josh + Teague for a true center + and the remaining Hawk is the Power Forward. I just don't see it happening.Why the center? Rebounding and defense win championships, we get killed on the glass night in night out.

that was a long time ago

If he was capable of leading a team to a ring as a max player, he would have signed there, they would have taken him. His agent played poker with the ASG and won. There was no real max deal on the table for Joe elsewhere or we would have had our hand forced and signed and traded him. If someone believes Joe is the centerpiece of a championship, then they know something other 29 teams in the NBA do not.

Honestly, Teague should feel like he got a bargain. Usually a young man has to pay extra to get dominated like that.

6 of those shots are fouled going to the basket...So he was really 10 of 23....still not good.Joe was 7 of 19 tonight, not much better. 2 of Josh's shots were 3 pointers shot in the last few seconds of the clock from guess who.I do not want Josh taking 20+ shots a game. Right now, the only cats I want with free range to shoot are Kirk and Green, maybe Vlad if he ever gets healthy. But Josh's shot options early were equally terrible....Kirk seems to be able to draw fouls at will around the basket if he chooses to. We seem to be changing identity the last 10 games or so to trying to draw fouls on our way to victory. Even Joe's foul shooting numbers are up.Brighter side....Joe got steals tonight, blocked shots which is one of my biggest complaints about him. Anyone as big/long as he is should be a havoc creator.

Translation ---- "We miss Al"

Simple answer. This team would be a lot better off with Josh at the 3, Horf at the 4 consistently. Both players would be solid all stars at those 2 positions, fill the team from there.

Eye test is fine. I'll go with that. Every time Joe gets the ball around the 3 point line with more than 14 seconds on the clock, take a look and start counting. Every time he takes 5-10 seconds off the clock trying to set up his man and then passes to someone who is flatfooted, mark that possession in your head. Then count by the end of the came how many there were.

I can not begin to tell you how wrong this is. In a basketball game, you get "X" number of possessions. Think about it this way. There is a 24 second shot clock. There are are 60 seconds in a minute, 48 minutes in a game, 2880 seconds in a game, 120 minimum possessions in a game. There are 5 ways a possession can end. A missed shot, a made shot, a turnover, a foul leading to free throws and time expires. So when the game begins each team starts with a basic 120 possessions. Shooting fast leads to more possessions per game, as does an offensive rebound. Only And-1's and 3-pointers lead to extra points. For the most part...it is a battle of possessions. Take the Boston, Atlanta Game on Monday. Both teams made 29 shots. Boston made 2 extra free throws and made only 1 extra 3. It was a game of possessions. Boston took 1 more shot than Atlanta in the game. Boston had 16 turnovers, Atlanta had 17. Joe had 7 of them. Do not even begin to tell me that Joe's turnovers weren't a major problem. We marginalize Josh's 8 assists by saying "because Joe knocked down the shots" but fail to realize that Josh was doing something Joe wasn't...taking care of the basketball before the shot was made. It is a game of possessions and in that game, turnovers and shot clock violations are killer because you don't even get a try at a basket. I would rather we shoot and miss then turn the ball over. A turnover is almost guaranteed points at the other end. At least with a bad shot you have a chance to get back on defense. I'd rather a player do something stupid with 12 seconds left on the clock (ie pass to Zaza while he's moving) than hold the ball till 5 seconds are left in the shot clock and pass out for a bail out.

We've played 46 games this season. What follows is the list of DNP's for our core. Most of Stack and Collins are just coach's decision most of the rest is injury. Though Collins wouldn't play even if he was healthy in most cases. Total DNP's - 163 - 3.54 per game. most people forget Kirk missed 18 to start the season and took about 10 games to get his sea legs.JS - 0JT - 0Zaza 0Vlad 5JJ - 6Pargo - 7MW - 8TMac - 8Ivan - 8WGreen - 11Kirk - 18Stack - 26Collins 31Al - 35

No, the stat sticks because the usage was similar. They were involved in a similar amount of plays/possessions. An assist in hockey goes to the last 2 players to touch the puck. Basically, each is getting half the credit for getting the score.In basketball, only the last player who touched the ball before the shooter gets credit and he only gets credit if the shooter can make the basket in flow...ie...2 steps or less or 1 dribble or less. What this means is that the passer created the shot by either his abilities with the ball or his court awareness making the pass. Now why is it the same. An assist leads to a basket. You don't get a basket if you don't score so an assist only counts if you score. The score is either a 2 or a 3. The shooter only gets points if he scores and that score is either a 2 or a 3.Now, looking at Josh Smith's stats for the year. Josh and Joe are shooting a similar percentage. Josh is making 7.1 shots a game, 63% assisted. Joe is making the same 7.1 shots a game, 50% assisted. So what this means. 1/3 of the time Josh is creating his own shot (usually with a post or putback). 1/2 of the time...Joe is creating his own shot. We know this because of "ISO Joe".Now here is what is disturbing about the assists number. According to this data, Joe has the ball in his hand with the ability to make a play more often (he should, he's a guard) but both players have identical assists per 48 minutes. In Joe's case, his assists per bad pass seem very good until you realize his other turnovers (offensive fouls, ball handling and shot clock violations) are in excess of his bad passes. In other words, his holding on to the ball too long is up'ing his turnover ratio and his lack of passing out early is actually lowering the number of assists total. Proof of that is the type of assists he's generating. over 72% of his assists are coming on other people's jump shots, less than 30% on close up shots or dunks. This means jump shooters are bailing him out. These aren't really assists but bail outs (think the infamous Smoove 3 attempt with less than 5 seconds on the clock). By contrast, Teague is getting 32% of his assists on close up plays. Josh is getting over 45% of his assists on plays around the basket. These aren't bail outs but court vision assists. He posts, hits an open jump shooter or hits a cutter. About 30% of his assists are to 3 point shooters. Only 25% are to standard jump shooters.Again, this isn't Joe hate. It's basketball science if you will. The shot clock is a 24 second dance. You have 24 seconds to get a good shot. Any of the 5 players on the floor could/should take a good shot. Holding the ball, stopping ball movement is a killer. The assist selection shows that.Both players play almost the exact same minutes per game, make the same number of shots per game, shoot virtually the same percentage, but the power forward is beating the guard in Assists/game, steals/game, blocks/game. The reason for Josh scoring 1.5 less points a game than Joe at this point is FT%. That's the difference.Take 2 generic players. They score the same, assist the same, shoot a similar percentage. One player though is hurt less often, gets 2.5 times the rebounds, 1.5 times the steals, 6 times the blocks is 5 years younger and costs 5 million dollars less a year. Yep, I'd take generic player 2 as well.

That same thing is said for all passers. I can think of 3 passes to Zaza a few nights ago that kept Josh out of double digits. Look at the season long numbers and you'll see that Joe's production isn't any better than Josh (or other players for that matter) without the rebounds, blocked shots or steals.

Just remember, you asked.In this game, Joe made 9 shots. Joe missed 8 shots. Joe turned the ball over 7 times. Joe got 1 assist.In this game, Josh made 5 shots. Josh missed 15 shots. Josh had only 1 turn over. Josh got 8 assists. That is 25 possessions for Joe. 10 turned into points. Conversion ratio: 40%That is 29 possessions for Josh. 13 turned into points. Conversion ratio: 44.8%It's all a matter of perspective. In your world, you see "points" and that equals a good game to you. Using this very simple formula for the year. Joe has made 283 field goals. He has missed 356. He has turned the ball over 82 times and has 152 assists. That is a conversion rate of 49.8%. Josh has made 328 field goals and missed 403. He has turned the ball over 110 time and has 179 assists. That is a conversion rate of 49.7%. Offensively, they are very similar as far as their effect on the game. Throw in rebounding rate and Josh's defensive impact and it's no contest.It isn't hate to say Joe isn't worth his contract, it's fact. I don't hate Joe. I wish him a long and happy life with many children and grandchildren. But his contract is an anvil around the neck of the franchise. A couple of high scoring games in a row doesn't change that.

Going to post without answering the questions as I don't like your options. 1st question - Keep Al and use JJ, Kirk and Marvin's contracts in the offseason for good value. Josh and Al are a better tandem if you consider value.2nd question - With the right personnel, Horford would be awesome. Horf needs a good pick n roll pg to play the PF and a shot blocking/rebounding center (ala Mailman having Ostertag) in order to be dominant.3rd question - Really???? Really???? Look man, everyone on here knows I'm the biggest Josh homer on the planet but this team is better with Al on it.

He was taken out with about 1 minute left in the 3rd quarter. Off and on the rest of the game he was seen in the background rubbing his left knee, a few times with an uncomfortable look on his face. I hope it was just tight.

Welcome back to a perpetual spot in the lottery then.