thecampster

First off...great win tonight.

The Hawks now have 1 day off and then back to backs with travel against Milwaukee (away) and Chicago (home).

Then they have 1 day off and then back to backs with New York (home) and Philly(away). No matter what happens in the next 6 days, that was the hard part.

The Hawks will then have 3 days off and then a home against Charlette,

Then a day off and then a back to back Detroit (Home), Charlette (Away).

Then another 3 days off. Finish this stretch and then it's 3 games against bottom dwellers in 10 days.

The schedule ends then with Boston, day off, Orlando day off....both on the road. Then 7 games in 12 days, 6 at home, 1 on the road, Tor, Tor, Det, Bos, Det, LAC, Dal. A very easy end of the schedule.

Not saying we'll win them all but the scores of back to backs, or 3 in a rows are done and we'll get a day off or 2 more compared to other teams. The Hawks and Bulls have each played 50 games (though Chicago started 2 days before we did), Miami / Indiana have only played 47 (easiest for sure but more at the end of the year than others) and everyone else in the east playoffs is in the middle. Just get through the next 4 games and it gets much easier from there. Cross your fingers and pray Al is back for the playoffs.

Joe Hater Club still in hiding after tonight I see. Poor little guys, so stuck in their hate of their team's best player.

For the 394th time, Joe isn't the team's best player. Not statistically, not ball handling, not passing, not at all. Joe is the team's best one on one scorer. There is much more to basketball than that.

Lol, this will never happen. This team isn't built to win. They have no heart, and horrible coaching. We are going to quickly slip to a .500 team in the next two weeks. Just watch.

It's okay, you can take your foot out of your mouth now.

Actually, against small centers, Marvin can play the post. Not kidding.

Possibility 1. Kirk will be resigned for about half of his current salary. That will free up a few million.Possibility 2. Kirk will be signed and traded bringing back a player.Possibility 3. Marvin is traded freeing up money or bringing back a working piece.Possibility 4. One of the major 4 pieces is traded. a. Joe is traded - this will bring back the most salary, the lowest talented player/group of players. b. Josh is traded - this will bring back the second most salary, a more talented player/group of players. c. Al is traded - this brings back the least amount of salary but could bring back the most talent (Al is viewed that well around the league) d. Teague and or Zaza is paired with any of the above listed 5 players in a wholesale roster shakeup. I have my opinions, ideas see below.Now for the reality check. There is a deal or two out there but Joe is by far the hardest to move due to his contract and age. You need to take back someone elses problem to move Joe. Josh has a few suitors but not as many willing to put up with what is seen as his flaws. Al is highly marketable and is seen as a commodity in the league (ie if injury prone Andrew Bogut gets you Monta Ellis, what does Al get you?).In a perfect world, I package JJ, Zaza + for a legit Center and play Al at the 4, Josh at the 3 but I just don't see other teams doing that. So the alternative roster major overall is either Al or Josh + Teague for a true center + and the remaining Hawk is the Power Forward. I just don't see it happening.Why the center? Rebounding and defense win championships, we get killed on the glass night in night out.

Josh shot 38% for the series (35/90) and 0% for three (0-9)Joe shot 48% for the series (45/92) including 50% from three while playing 18 more minutes for the seriesI'm actually glad you brought this up, because I had no idea how much better Joe played than Josh until I looked it up.*I forgot to add free throws in!Joe 16/18Josh 25/39Joe outscored Josh by 25 points by taking 2 more shots.

that was a long time ago

Your interpretation of what i posted is quite self serving. I never said those guys werent important to their teams. I never said duncan should be chatacterized as an emotional player. I do think he has shown more emotion at times over his career than joe has. As for the idiot thing, since i do not know you, i believe you. I retract my animosity toward the subject. These are only opinions of mine. Im sure im wrong about some of them. Do you honestly believe joe can lead a team to a ring?

If he was capable of leading a team to a ring as a max player, he would have signed there, they would have taken him. His agent played poker with the ASG and won. There was no real max deal on the table for Joe elsewhere or we would have had our hand forced and signed and traded him. If someone believes Joe is the centerpiece of a championship, then they know something other 29 teams in the NBA do not.

Honestly, Teague should feel like he got a bargain. Usually a young man has to pay extra to get dominated like that.

Josh had 29 shots today he missed on 19. Can we atleast agree that Josh should not be shooting more shots than Joe ever!!! Joe scores more points on less shots than Josh, he is a better shooter and better at getting the shots he wants, not what the defense gives him.

6 of those shots are fouled going to the basket...So he was really 10 of 23....still not good.Joe was 7 of 19 tonight, not much better. 2 of Josh's shots were 3 pointers shot in the last few seconds of the clock from guess who.I do not want Josh taking 20+ shots a game. Right now, the only cats I want with free range to shoot are Kirk and Green, maybe Vlad if he ever gets healthy. But Josh's shot options early were equally terrible....Kirk seems to be able to draw fouls at will around the basket if he chooses to. We seem to be changing identity the last 10 games or so to trying to draw fouls on our way to victory. Even Joe's foul shooting numbers are up.Brighter side....Joe got steals tonight, blocked shots which is one of my biggest complaints about him. Anyone as big/long as he is should be a havoc creator.

Joe is averaging 27 points per game in March, which just happens to be when he rested his knees, and other than tonight's game he's been much better earlier in games in March.Bottom line is that others need to help pick up the scoring load when JJ is struggling and while Josh did that tonight in the 1st half we need a 3rd reliable scorer in the worst way.

Translation ---- "We miss Al"

Simple answer. This team would be a lot better off with Josh at the 3, Horf at the 4 consistently. Both players would be solid all stars at those 2 positions, fill the team from there.

We can talk all we want about stats but when the stats say that guys like Nate Robinson are better than Joe I start to care about them less. The simple eye test shows that Joe is a good ball handler and doesn't force bad passes on offense unlike Josh. I'll just take that to show that Joe turns the ball over less than Josh.

Eye test is fine. I'll go with that. Every time Joe gets the ball around the 3 point line with more than 14 seconds on the clock, take a look and start counting. Every time he takes 5-10 seconds off the clock trying to set up his man and then passes to someone who is flatfooted, mark that possession in your head. Then count by the end of the came how many there were.

You can say it's basketball science all you want, but your stat is severely flawed. This stat basically rewards a player for doing nothing. And you can say that they took a similar amount of shots or played a similar amount of minutes, but if a player with the stats i mentioned above can have a higher % than the player who clearly played the better game, the statistic does not work.

For instance, in basketball you are expected to miss shots. A missed shot cannot carry the same weight as a made shot because it affects the game in a completely different way. In fact, if you miss half of your shots all the time, you will be considered a pretty good shooter. And again, you can't even begin to judge how effective someone was overall in a game without factoring in what they did at the free throw line, how they shot from 3, or even how many points they scored. Your stat is just a fake stat that is specifically tailored to make Josh look good. There are way too many holes to poke in it.

Basketball is way more than science. There are way too many things that happen during the course of a game that we don't have the capability to keep track of to be able to summarize a performance based on 4 individual stats that all affect the game in different ways.

I can not begin to tell you how wrong this is. In a basketball game, you get "X" number of possessions. Think about it this way. There is a 24 second shot clock. There are are 60 seconds in a minute, 48 minutes in a game, 2880 seconds in a game, 120 minimum possessions in a game. There are 5 ways a possession can end. A missed shot, a made shot, a turnover, a foul leading to free throws and time expires. So when the game begins each team starts with a basic 120 possessions. Shooting fast leads to more possessions per game, as does an offensive rebound. Only And-1's and 3-pointers lead to extra points. For the most part...it is a battle of possessions. Take the Boston, Atlanta Game on Monday. Both teams made 29 shots. Boston made 2 extra free throws and made only 1 extra 3. It was a game of possessions. Boston took 1 more shot than Atlanta in the game. Boston had 16 turnovers, Atlanta had 17. Joe had 7 of them. Do not even begin to tell me that Joe's turnovers weren't a major problem. We marginalize Josh's 8 assists by saying "because Joe knocked down the shots" but fail to realize that Josh was doing something Joe wasn't...taking care of the basketball before the shot was made. It is a game of possessions and in that game, turnovers and shot clock violations are killer because you don't even get a try at a basket. I would rather we shoot and miss then turn the ball over. A turnover is almost guaranteed points at the other end. At least with a bad shot you have a chance to get back on defense. I'd rather a player do something stupid with 12 seconds left on the clock (ie pass to Zaza while he's moving) than hold the ball till 5 seconds are left in the shot clock and pass out for a bail out.

We've played 46 games this season. What follows is the list of DNP's for our core. Most of Stack and Collins are just coach's decision most of the rest is injury. Though Collins wouldn't play even if he was healthy in most cases. Total DNP's - 163 - 3.54 per game. most people forget Kirk missed 18 to start the season and took about 10 games to get his sea legs.JS - 0JT - 0Zaza 0Vlad 5JJ - 6Pargo - 7MW - 8TMac - 8Ivan - 8WGreen - 11Kirk - 18Stack - 26Collins 31Al - 35

Ok so I figured out why that ratio is completely irrelevant.If you have a big playoff game, which of these guys do you want?1) 20/47 (27 misses)6 TO1 AssistLet's say he scores 49 points, which is reasonable for those numbers.2) 2/3 (1 miss)1 TO2 AssistsThis guy scores 5 points.First guy had 54 possessions and converted on 21 of those for a conversion percentage of: 38.9%Second guy had 6 possessions and converted on 4 of those for a conversion percentage of: 66.7%The made baskets (and free throws) have to be weighed differently than missed shots and turnovers because a turnover or missed shot does not have a consequence unless the other team scores, whereas a made shot is an actual thing that has a direct impact on the game. For instance, you could get 50 turnovers in a game, but you won't win unless you can score a point. That 1 point is way more valuable than the 50 turnovers.

No, the stat sticks because the usage was similar. They were involved in a similar amount of plays/possessions.

I'm not mathematician or anything, but that doesn't really seem to add up. Obviously assists are valuable, but that formula seems to give Josh just as much credit for an assist as he gets for the bucket. You can't really give equal value to a basket scored by someone as an assist that they make. The assist should probably be worth somewhere around half the value of the actual basket (like hockey, i believe).

An assist in hockey goes to the last 2 players to touch the puck. Basically, each is getting half the credit for getting the score.In basketball, only the last player who touched the ball before the shooter gets credit and he only gets credit if the shooter can make the basket in flow...ie...2 steps or less or 1 dribble or less. What this means is that the passer created the shot by either his abilities with the ball or his court awareness making the pass. Now why is it the same. An assist leads to a basket. You don't get a basket if you don't score so an assist only counts if you score. The score is either a 2 or a 3. The shooter only gets points if he scores and that score is either a 2 or a 3.Now, looking at Josh Smith's stats for the year. Josh and Joe are shooting a similar percentage. Josh is making 7.1 shots a game, 63% assisted. Joe is making the same 7.1 shots a game, 50% assisted. So what this means. 1/3 of the time Josh is creating his own shot (usually with a post or putback). 1/2 of the time...Joe is creating his own shot. We know this because of "ISO Joe".Now here is what is disturbing about the assists number. According to this data, Joe has the ball in his hand with the ability to make a play more often (he should, he's a guard) but both players have identical assists per 48 minutes. In Joe's case, his assists per bad pass seem very good until you realize his other turnovers (offensive fouls, ball handling and shot clock violations) are in excess of his bad passes. In other words, his holding on to the ball too long is up'ing his turnover ratio and his lack of passing out early is actually lowering the number of assists total. Proof of that is the type of assists he's generating. over 72% of his assists are coming on other people's jump shots, less than 30% on close up shots or dunks. This means jump shooters are bailing him out. These aren't really assists but bail outs (think the infamous Smoove 3 attempt with less than 5 seconds on the clock). By contrast, Teague is getting 32% of his assists on close up plays. Josh is getting over 45% of his assists on plays around the basket. These aren't bail outs but court vision assists. He posts, hits an open jump shooter or hits a cutter. About 30% of his assists are to 3 point shooters. Only 25% are to standard jump shooters.Again, this isn't Joe hate. It's basketball science if you will. The shot clock is a 24 second dance. You have 24 seconds to get a good shot. Any of the 5 players on the floor could/should take a good shot. Holding the ball, stopping ball movement is a killer. The assist selection shows that.Both players play almost the exact same minutes per game, make the same number of shots per game, shoot virtually the same percentage, but the power forward is beating the guard in Assists/game, steals/game, blocks/game. The reason for Josh scoring 1.5 less points a game than Joe at this point is FT%. That's the difference.Take 2 generic players. They score the same, assist the same, shoot a similar percentage. One player though is hurt less often, gets 2.5 times the rebounds, 1.5 times the steals, 6 times the blocks is 5 years younger and costs 5 million dollars less a year. Yep, I'd take generic player 2 as well.

A couple of Joes turnovers came from teammates not spreading the floor and being in spots. He had a couple passes that could've been assists but teammates didn't knock them down. What can you say, he tried...

That same thing is said for all passers. I can think of 3 passes to Zaza a few nights ago that kept Josh out of double digits. Look at the season long numbers and you'll see that Joe's production isn't any better than Josh (or other players for that matter) without the rebounds, blocked shots or steals.

What now haters? What will it take to hush you guys on my main man Joe Johnson?

Just remember, you asked.In this game, Joe made 9 shots. Joe missed 8 shots. Joe turned the ball over 7 times. Joe got 1 assist.In this game, Josh made 5 shots. Josh missed 15 shots. Josh had only 1 turn over. Josh got 8 assists. That is 25 possessions for Joe. 10 turned into points. Conversion ratio: 40%That is 29 possessions for Josh. 13 turned into points. Conversion ratio: 44.8%It's all a matter of perspective. In your world, you see "points" and that equals a good game to you. Using this very simple formula for the year. Joe has made 283 field goals. He has missed 356. He has turned the ball over 82 times and has 152 assists. That is a conversion rate of 49.8%. Josh has made 328 field goals and missed 403. He has turned the ball over 110 time and has 179 assists. That is a conversion rate of 49.7%. Offensively, they are very similar as far as their effect on the game. Throw in rebounding rate and Josh's defensive impact and it's no contest.It isn't hate to say Joe isn't worth his contract, it's fact. I don't hate Joe. I wish him a long and happy life with many children and grandchildren. But his contract is an anvil around the neck of the franchise. A couple of high scoring games in a row doesn't change that.

Going to post without answering the questions as I don't like your options. 1st question - Keep Al and use JJ, Kirk and Marvin's contracts in the offseason for good value. Josh and Al are a better tandem if you consider value.2nd question - With the right personnel, Horford would be awesome. Horf needs a good pick n roll pg to play the PF and a shot blocking/rebounding center (ala Mailman having Ostertag) in order to be dominant.3rd question - Really???? Really???? Look man, everyone on here knows I'm the biggest Josh homer on the planet but this team is better with Al on it.

Josh was 3-15. Wonder what his deal was...

He was taken out with about 1 minute left in the 3rd quarter. Off and on the rest of the game he was seen in the background rubbing his left knee, a few times with an uncomfortable look on his face. I hope it was just tight.

That's true, but that's also because joe has missed time and when Al come back he wont havebthose numbers. I agree he's the best playerbon thos team but I think we should trade him during draft day because we wont go far in the plqyoffs.

Welcome back to a perpetual spot in the lottery then.

I'm kinda new here, but I was thinking we could trade josh for a high draft pick depending on how far we go in the playoffs? How high a pick do you think we could get?

That's a good question. I've got one for you. Who in the draft do you think we could get that would give us 25 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.5 blocks on 50% shooting? Because that's what the guy you want to trade has averaged this month.

Just for some semblance of balance lets look at positives for the Hawks going foward.

- We get a 2 time allstar (Al Horford) back next year who is in the prime of his career.

- 1st round pick around 16-19 which should equal a pretty darn good player and possibility a legit NBA center. This is the deepest draft in years and is loaded with big men.

- The ASG went into the luxury tax this year. ( I believe only 5 or 6 teams in the entire NBA did this).

- The late 2nd round pick, which was sold to help cover the tax penalty and loss of profit sharing, is not that big of a deal considering we own the Suns 2nd round pick which should come about 10 picks earlier. After all.........there are not many teams who have two 2nd round picks, in the same year, that make their roster.

- Jeff Teague is young and up and coming PG with a plenty of potential. Loved seeing him come back with new found NBA 3 point shot added to his game

This concludes this public announcement. Now you may carry on with doom and gloom of the Hawks franchise.

Other positive - we have played 7 more road games than home. We have 15 home, 8 away left this season. Our record could/should improve. The 3rd seed is not impossible at this point.

THis is so funny I see this thread because I thought of this samething today after finding out Dwight will be a FA the same year Josh.

I think the ASG need to figure out a way to free some cap room and sweet talk Josh all summer to get him to talk with his good friend about playing for the hawks.

If I'm the ASG, I'm putting Josh's face all over town...

I'm taking any deal I can get for Joe to clear room (dumping him for picks/expiring trash is best), reassuring Al that he will be the 4. I'm reup'ing Teague early at a guaranteed 7 million so he is in the fold and I'm dumping Kirk, Marvin for draft picks. Then I'm signing Dwight and looking at this:

Teague

SG - Drafted shooter - 3 point marksmen.

Josh

Al

Dwight

and any draft picks/bums we can get. That front 3 would be the best ever assembled.

http://www.jimrome.com/junglehighlights?uri=channels/465575/1624026

Okay, where to begin.

In this deal, Atlanta gives up 1, takes back 3 players. In order to do this, we would have to waive 2 players. Our roster is at 15 (correct me if I'm wrong).

Additionally, Orlando is giving up Jason Richardson and getting back Michael Beasley which isn't much of a good fit.

But assuming this is correct and let's assume the players waived are Stack (or Green), Collins since this move effectively replaces them. You are giving up Josh with the intent of starting Pekovic and moving Al to the 4. This is acceptable except Al isn't healthy. So this is a move for next year. The biggest benefit in this trade is the Hawks shed some salary getting them under the Luxury tax threshold and making dealing next year easier.

Also, a viable rumor at this point is a 3 way with LA/Portland/Minny with Crawford and Beasley as the focal points.