thecampster

It's a "how well do you function in the team concept" and a "are you lucky enough to be on the floor with the right guys" stat. Look at Rad's stats for the year. The stats suggest Rad is on the floor during comebacks or pull aways. Rad tends to replace Marvin, is on the floor with the better defensive units and the 3 point shooting units. He doesn't play often with Green or Hinrich. Zaza's numbers are way, way down from playing with the reserves the beginning of the year (first 20 games or so). Teague plays most of his time with Josh, Joe, almost never with Green and is usually sub'd for by Kirk. Kirk was out when Al was playing and gets no benefit of Al. Al, played almost exclusively with Teague, Josh, Joe and a mixture of Rad, Marvin. Josh mixes in with the subs a lot as the last man off the floor. Joe, similar. Their numbers are affected by playing a lot with Kirk, Green, Zaza.

If you are on the court and your team scores, you get a +1 for every point. If you are on the court and the opposing team scores, you get a -1 for every point. If you are on the bench, nothing happens. So tonight for example, In Kirk's 42 minutes, the team scored 7 more points than it gave up. In Teague's 37 minutes the team scored 15 more points than it gave up. In Zaza's 29 minutes, the team gave up 2 more points than it scored. In Smith's 39 minutes, the team scored 9 more points than it gave up In JJ's 37 minutes, the team scored 2 more points than it gave up. Now for fun, I did some figuring. Hawks players this season. Notice how the smaller the sample/minutes played, more assanine the number. +/- is a decent season long value stat but not a good game by game stat. Player///// avg+/- // per48 +/- Sloan//////+3.6////+43.38 Damp/////+2.1////+16.57 Stack//////+2.9////+15.12 Horford///+4.73///+7.18 Vlad////////+2.39///+6.97 Teague///+2.12///+3.18 Josh///////+2.0//////+2.69 Joe/////// +1.74////+2.33 TMac//// +.79 //////+2.27 Pargo//// +.28 ///// +1.10 Marvin // +.24 //// +.45 Zaza ///// -.1 ////// -.19 Ivan ////// -.2 ////// -.68 Collins // -.3 ////// -1.36 Hinrich // -1.1 //// -2.62 Green /// -2 /////// -5.58 FYI, +/- for the year (partial list) Radman 92 Teague 87 Josh 82 JJ 61 Al 51 (in only 11 games when we started out well) Stack 44 TMac 27 Pargo 10 Marvin 9 Zaza -3 Hinrich -25 Green -70

I'm okay with defending Marvin. Just as long as people don't hold Marvin to the draft selection. Marvin is an 8 million dollar player. Are you getting 8 million value compared to the rest of the roster. IE, if Horford is 12 million, Josh is 13 million, is Marvin 8. Comparing to Joe's contract isn't fair but compare him to our team and other 8 million dollar players out there. Kirk is an 8 million player, but Zaza is 5.5 million. If you compare him to Zaza, no we aren't getting value. Compare him to Kirk, we are. Compare him to a healthy Al, no we aren't getting value. compared to Josh, uh...no. Compared to say Paul Milsap....definately not as Milsap makes the same and produces a little less than Josh. However Devin Harris makes slightly more and produces less. Marvin is a very average 8 million dollar player, a solid value but not a good value.

I see it differently. I think Josh is better today. But 5 years from now I think when Josh's athleticism wanes, Horf will be better.

So you feel the 1.3 point net difference and against worse competition is worth 18 million a year. If that's hate, call me a hater then.

Both valid points....I think you are right on both.

Yes you do that in a heartbeat...I'll explain. Next season, Horf and JJ are set to make $31,752,645. Without Both, the Hawks have only $29,169,327 in salary. (Dwight is a free agent, Hinrich expires). Now the trick here is to not resign Dwight until you sign other free agents. You'd have only 4 under contract. So there's 4 million in cap holds up front and if you don't figure in Hinrich about 4 million more in cap holds for vets on the roster who haven't signed (about $37 million, 21 million under the cap). So in a perfect world, you would then sign Deron Williams for about 16-18 million and then one more player at about 5 million. Now this is assuming no other trades. At this point you can give Dwight his max deal. Starting at $18 million. I also think you exercise on Ivan Johnson at 967,000. On the roster you'd have, Deron/Teague SG you signed Marvin Josh/Ivan Dwight/Zaza And the player you signed for 5 million ish. You have 4 mandatory slots to fill and have spent $69 million. You may or may not have a first round pick. Then you get one player for 1.7 million as a draft pick. You need 3 players and have 1.3 million to spend under the Luxury tax. These are basic numbers, not specific but you can see that this roster has real potential and is possible. If you could trade Horford and JJ for Dwight, you do it and you don't look back. Defensively you are a powerhouse. You can move Marvin on draft day for a late first round pick to lighten the salary burden and turn the page.

With JJ, 93.5 possessions a game for the year. Without JJ, 6 games. 100 possessions per game. So a modest 6.5 possession difference for the year. However, we do turn the ball over more. For the year, the Hawks score 93.1 ppg, give up 91.4. In JJ's absence, 91.4 and 91.0. This is very telling. Although the Hawks are 1.7 ppg worse with JJ out of the lineup, they have been .4 ppg better on Defense despite the more possessions. The net difference our 18 million dollar 6 time all-star nets is 1.3 ppg. Do you really consider that good value? In those 6 games without JJ FYI, we played Miami, Indiana, OKC and Orlando...4 solid playoff teams, 2 of the 3 best teams in the NBA so the numbers would obviously be skewed with the small sample.

Throw them our First in 2013 and 2015 and I bet they'd do that.

I agree that we are weak at the 5 but considering his 5 million dollar salary, Zaza is holding his own. But Joe at SG, our 19 million dollar man next year, no real backup with a net of .1 is unacceptable.

So what does this mean? The Offense struggles when Joe is the PG. His best position is SG. Teague is a little below average but not terrible. Marvin's numbers are due to inactivity (opinion only). Josh's opponent is mismatched most nights. Josh's best position is SF per the sample. Can you not read?....SG is lower that PF by 2+ per

More Stats - Josh PER NET (own vs opp) on floor stats. 82games.com SF +24.6 PF +2.3 C +5.5 Teague PG -1.2 Joe Johnson PG -16.8 SG +6.2 SF -4.3 Marvin SG -46.3 SF + 4.5 PF -4.6 C +1.9 Zaza PF .0 C -2.3 Again...justify the Josh hate without opinion. Stats can be misleading guys but these are way too strong to argue with.

Interesting when you use stats to support your position only. Net stats - PG -1.3 SG +0.1 SF +3.8 PF +2.5 C -1.1 Net stats PER - Guess who splits time at SF/PF.

PER is always inflated at the C and PF due to Rebounds......Inflated at the PG due to Assists. that is all. SG/SF score....but are lower in those 2 stats.

Didn't say that. Didn't not say that, but didn't say that. I saw numerous reasons last night but blaming Teague and Smith for last night's loss is hardly fair. I saw numerous missed open 3's by Marvin. I saw Zaza benched far too long. I saw JJ timid on the drive except for a couple of drives. I saw us holding the ball a really long time again. Last night we had 81 possessions. The previous 3 games we averaged 96.3 possessions. Insert JJ, 15 less possessions for the game. Yes, I can blame JJ for killing the offense.

I find it interesting that people can post stats, records, photos, tape, etc and your answer is "it's not JJ".

Holy crap....I'm that guy!

Making my point for me. Josh is harder to replace.

Because Radman comes in for Josh, not Ivan. Ivan comes in for Marvin and Zaza. When in for Zaza, he plays the post. When in for Marvin, he plays the high post. When Zaza is out, Josh plays the high post, when Marvin is out, Josh plays his corner spot in the motion. Here it goes again. In our motion, We have 2 corners, a Center post, a High post and decision maker near the 3 point line. When the decision maker moves to the lane, the high post clears out by going to the 3 point line. When the decision maker is trapped, the corner, high post or near corner as supposed to come and help (see Zaza/AL 10 ft jumpers). When the pick and roll is set, it is by those same 3 players with options for cutters based on the pick. The far corner is the 2nd defensive release, the rotation for the 3 and the clear out if their side is overloaded. Typical set has Teague at the top, Joe at the high post or in the near corner. Josh in the high post or far corner. Center in the post, Marvin on the corner not occupied. Alt set (our least effective set in my opinion) has Joe at the top, Josh in the high post. Alt set 2 (the preferred set) - Josh in the low post (right side), 3 wings at the top, low post cleared out of the lane on the left. Those are your sets 90% of the time, sometimes inverted. The vast majority of the reason we have lower possessions lay in 2 things....good defense making long shot clocks for our opponents but us taking a long time to set up these 3 sets and executing them.

Let me quote myself from a different post. http://hawksquawk.ne...__1#entry540421 The 25 game sample states the Hawks are a better team without Joe - no replacement. The 19 game sample suggests the Hawks don't make the playoffs without Josh.

You really need to take a second and look at floor spacing and realize he's on the 3 point line because it's the spacing called for in the offense.

I started a thread on this already. Just amnestying Joe does not get you enough to fill up Phillips. Other moves are required. Josh, Al, Marvin, Zaza, Teague are owed 41 million at this point next year. There would be 7 empty slots for a 3.5 million cap hold. However, 2 players have about 2 million in options next year so the cap number is another 1 million higher (difference between minimum cap hold). There are another 1.4 million in cap holds for 4 players that are now out of the league. You will have a number 1 draft pick at about 1.7 million in there (difference of 1.2 million when he takes a slot). Before we even start next year we are about 48 million plus unsigned cap holds.....(our players we haven't resigned who have a higher cap hold.) Look here....http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/hawks.jsp scroll to the middle of the page.

This is one of the first deals for Smith I'd consider. Not sure I agree but I'd be tempted.

http://www.macon.com...-interview.html Good stuff - explains everything from stats for Hawks player compared to a team that gets more possessions. Starts out saying there are people in the locker room that don't support him.....Joe or Al....it's one of the 2. Edit - adding direct MP3 link for those browsing on a mobile phone that doesn't support Flash <a href="http://acp77987.vmixcore.com/core-dl/71/0/7/1138085481/1771/71/1351/540f34f9ee7ff2f37889e60aa255ebe1.mp3">Direct MP3 Link Click Here</a>

So if it's based on effort, Zaza is our best??? Game impact! Since 2008, Josh has missed 19 total games. The Hawks are 8-11 in those games. .421 Since 2008, Al has missed 49 total games. The Hawks are 26-23 in those games. .531 Since 2008, Joe has missed 25 total games. The Hawks are 15-10 in those games .600 Draw your own conclusions of course but based on this 4 year sample without Josh we are a below .500 team and would average 34.5 wins in an 82 game season. Without Al 43.5 games a year. Without Joe we would win 49.2 games a year. What have we averaged the last 4 years? 48-34. Based on the Joe Sample we are 1.2 wins a year better if Joe isn't in the lineup. We are 4.5 games worse without Al. We are 13.5 games worse without Josh and don't make the playoffs. More information. Joe's best season here was 25 ppg, no Al...Josh's first year to shine it was 06-07....we won 30 games. It wasn't until we got Horford and a point guard that we made the playoffs. Joe's impact here has alwasy been minimal. Joe's first 3 years here we won 26,30 and 37 games. It was with the maturation of Smith / Horford we became a playoff team. Without Joe in the lineup, we still would be a top 4 seed based on our win percentage. Without Al bottom 4, without Josh...we wouldn't even make the playoffs.