thecampster

Wouldn't Dwight have a cap hold counting against your available space before he's re-signed? I could be completely making that up but I thought I remembered reading something like that at one point. It's been so long since we've been under the cap and had room to sign a big time player that I've forgotten.

Of course I don't think that matters since there is zero chance that they'd add JJ's big contract without shipping out Turk to us so we'd have to consider him in our plans. Maybe we expand the deal and give them Marvin while they give us Turk? That would still add about $3 million onto next years number.

I believe Hawks management is at a crossroads here. Remember just recently with Joe and Horf out the Hawks played well. Joe comes back last night and Teague doesnt know what to do. There seems to be a rif between Joe and Josh. The D12 thing is looming.................

What would we do if we owned the team? Move Horf and JJ to Orlando and possibly rent D12 for 6 weeks?

Yes you do that in a heartbeat...I'll explain.

Next season, Horf and JJ are set to make $31,752,645. Without Both, the Hawks have only $29,169,327 in salary. (Dwight is a free agent, Hinrich expires). Now the trick here is to not resign Dwight until you sign other free agents. You'd have only 4 under contract. So there's 4 million in cap holds up front and if you don't figure in Hinrich about 4 million more in cap holds for vets on the roster who haven't signed (about $37 million, 21 million under the cap). So in a perfect world, you would then sign Deron Williams for about 16-18 million and then one more player at about 5 million. Now this is assuming no other trades. At this point you can give Dwight his max deal. Starting at $18 million. I also think you exercise on Ivan Johnson at 967,000. On the roster you'd have,

Deron/Teague

SG you signed

Marvin

Josh/Ivan

Dwight/Zaza

And the player you signed for 5 million ish. You have 4 mandatory slots to fill and have spent $69 million. You may or may not have a first round pick. Then you get one player for 1.7 million as a draft pick. You need 3 players and have 1.3 million to spend under the Luxury tax. These are basic numbers, not specific but you can see that this roster has real potential and is possible. If you could trade Horford and JJ for Dwight, you do it and you don't look back. Defensively you are a powerhouse. You can move Marvin on draft day for a late first round pick to lighten the salary burden and turn the page.

Gotcha ... well I certainly don't blame any one player for the loss last night as there were plenty of mistakes and missed opportunities to go around. Interesting stat concerning the possessions. How many possessions do we typically average and what's our average been without JJ?

With JJ, 93.5 possessions a game for the year. Without JJ, 6 games. 100 possessions per game. So a modest 6.5 possession difference for the year. However, we do turn the ball over more.

For the year, the Hawks score 93.1 ppg, give up 91.4. In JJ's absence, 91.4 and 91.0.

This is very telling. Although the Hawks are 1.7 ppg worse with JJ out of the lineup, they have been .4 ppg better on Defense despite the more possessions. The net difference our 18 million dollar 6 time all-star nets is 1.3 ppg. Do you really consider that good value? In those 6 games without JJ FYI, we played Miami, Indiana, OKC and Orlando...4 solid playoff teams, 2 of the 3 best teams in the NBA so the numbers would obviously be skewed with the small sample.

Just for fun, went to the trade checker. I can see why Orlando would be interested and why we are rumored to be talking. All three of these work, add picks and stir if you think needed.

Horford, JJ for Hedo, Howard

Horford, Smoove for Hedo, Howard

Horrford, Marvin, Hinrich for Hedo, Howard

Throw them our First in 2013 and 2015 and I bet they'd do that.

Its not about Josh but with Horford out I would not think it would take a brain surgeon to know we are hurting at the center. I said that with him out, it is hard to guage the 5 spot...

I agree that we are weak at the 5 but considering his 5 million dollar salary, Zaza is holding his own. But Joe at SG, our 19 million dollar man next year, no real backup with a net of .1 is unacceptable.

More Stats -

Josh PER NET (own vs opp) on floor stats. 82games.com

SF +24.6

PF +2.3

C +5.5

Teague

PG -1.2

Joe Johnson

PG -16.8

SG +6.2

SF -4.3

Marvin

SG -46.3

SF + 4.5

PF -4.6

C +1.9

Zaza

PF .0

C -2.3

Again...justify the Josh hate without opinion. Stats can be misleading guys but these are way too strong to argue with.

So what does this mean? The Offense struggles when Joe is the PG. His best position is SG.

Teague is a little below average but not terrible. Marvin's numbers are due to inactivity (opinion only).

Josh's opponent is mismatched most nights. Josh's best position is SF per the sample.

The net stats support my same aurgument.

PG, PF, C are our three weakest postions. We need to get better at the point or bigger down low. Whats your point exactly?

Can you not read?....SG is lower that PF by 2+ per

More Stats -

Josh PER NET (own vs opp) on floor stats. 82games.com

SF +24.6

PF +2.3

C +5.5

Teague

PG -1.2

Joe Johnson

PG -16.8

SG +6.2

SF -4.3

Marvin

SG -46.3

SF + 4.5

PF -4.6

C +1.9

Zaza

PF .0

C -2.3

Again...justify the Josh hate without opinion. Stats can be misleading guys but these are way too strong to argue with.

Interesting when you use stats to support your position only.

Net stats -

PG -1.3

SG +0.1

SF +3.8

PF +2.5

C -1.1

Net stats PER - Guess who splits time at SF/PF.

Just went out to 82 games to take a look at some stats and found this concerning our opponents per game pers against us....

C : 15.7

PG: 15.4

PF: 14.4

SG: 13.5

SF: 11.4

I found the SF rating to be the biggest surprise but the Center, PG, and PF to be exactly what I expected. We get abused down low because of our lack of size and overall defensive skill set and pg is still one of our weakest positions.

I am sure Horford being out has a lot to do with this but I and a lot of others here have been saying for years, we need to one fix our lack of size or two fix our PG in order to get to the next level. Our team will never be a threat for a championship so long as those two things are our most glaring weaknesses....at least one or the other has to be fixed.

link:

http://www.82games.c...12/1112ATL5.HTM

PER is always inflated at the C and PF due to Rebounds......Inflated at the PG due to Assists. that is all. SG/SF score....but are lower in those 2 stats.

You believe last nights loss was JJ's fault?

Didn't say that. Didn't not say that, but didn't say that. I saw numerous reasons last night but blaming Teague and Smith for last night's loss is hardly fair. I saw numerous missed open 3's by Marvin. I saw Zaza benched far too long. I saw JJ timid on the drive except for a couple of drives. I saw us holding the ball a really long time again. Last night we had 81 possessions. The previous 3 games we averaged 96.3 possessions. Insert JJ, 15 less possessions for the game. Yes, I can blame JJ for killing the offense.

I was a big fan of Teague but as of late I’m so sick of his lack of confidence in his shot.

I’m so tired of him passing up open shots. He did this alot tonight.

JJ passed that ball to him because he was open. He passed the damn ball right back to JJ to put him in a very bad spot to shoot the ball over 2 players.

That was Teague’s shot to take and he F---ed it up!

I find it interesting that people can post stats, records, photos, tape, etc and your answer is "it's not JJ".

Imagine going to work working hard.. I mean, 7 to 7... straight. Being involved with every aspect of the business. You're the guy who is needed to get most things done... and having a co-worker show up. He doesn't absolutely nothing all day but sit in his office and play Texas Holdem. Then in the other office, you have another co-worker. He has won the 2-diamond award every year... but he works from 10-3. Then having a last co-worker, he also won the 2-diamond award for the past two years... he is good but he complains about not being the project manager for the projects that you have managed. So you got Texas Holdem and the two diamond winners... and you. This yr, you have worked extra hard... you have doubled your efforts. You came in this year having studied all of the books and you're sharp. Your supervisor tells you that he don't care how you get the numbers, just get the numbers. You get the numbers and some days it's not pretty or stylish, but you get them... and guys on the board of directors are very critical about how you speak when you give a presentation. You still bring in the contract, but they are very critical. Everytime you do something, they read over it to look for grammar errors. They get nitpicky with how you write your reports. You're good at your job, you get the job done. You do it better than anybody in your office, but you get nitpicked to death by the same people who say.. Hey buddy, you're our guy. BTW, they don't even open Texas Holdem's or the 2-diamond guys report. Rarely do they look through anything they write... But you... oh, your work is reviewed by every board member.

But... You're their guy!!!

How would you feel?

Holy crap....I'm that guy!

Making my point for me. Josh is harder to replace.

Then why isn't Ivan Johnson out there in that same spot when he's in the game?

Because Radman comes in for Josh, not Ivan. Ivan comes in for Marvin and Zaza. When in for Zaza, he plays the post. When in for Marvin, he plays the high post. When Zaza is out, Josh plays the high post, when Marvin is out, Josh plays his corner spot in the motion.

Here it goes again. In our motion, We have 2 corners, a Center post, a High post and decision maker near the 3 point line. When the decision maker moves to the lane, the high post clears out by going to the 3 point line. When the decision maker is trapped, the corner, high post or near corner as supposed to come and help (see Zaza/AL 10 ft jumpers). When the pick and roll is set, it is by those same 3 players with options for cutters based on the pick. The far corner is the 2nd defensive release, the rotation for the 3 and the clear out if their side is overloaded.

Typical set has Teague at the top, Joe at the high post or in the near corner. Josh in the high post or far corner. Center in the post, Marvin on the corner not occupied.

Alt set (our least effective set in my opinion) has Joe at the top, Josh in the high post.

Alt set 2 (the preferred set) - Josh in the low post (right side), 3 wings at the top, low post cleared out of the lane on the left.

Those are your sets 90% of the time, sometimes inverted. The vast majority of the reason we have lower possessions lay in 2 things....good defense making long shot clocks for our opponents but us taking a long time to set up these 3 sets and executing them.

Let me quote myself from a different post.

http://hawksquawk.ne...__1#entry540421

Since 2008, Josh has missed 19 total games. The Hawks are 8-11 in those games. .421

Since 2008, Al has missed 49 total games. The Hawks are 26-23 in those games. .531

Since 2008, Joe has missed 25 total games. The Hawks are 15-10 in those games .600

Draw your own conclusions of course but based on this 4 year sample without Josh we are a below .500 team and would average 34.5 wins in an 82 game season. Without Al 43.5 games a year. Without Joe we would win 49.2 games a year.

What have we averaged the last 4 years? 48-34. Based on the Joe Sample we are 1.2 wins a year better if Joe isn't in the lineup. We are 4.5 games worse without Al. We are 13.5 games worse without Josh and don't make the playoffs.

The 25 game sample states the Hawks are a better team without Joe - no replacement. The 19 game sample suggests the Hawks don't make the playoffs without Josh.

Are u freaking serious? He gets booed becuz he is NOT supposed to be doing that.

That would be hilarious lol

You really need to take a second and look at floor spacing and realize he's on the 3 point line because it's the spacing called for in the offense.

If that 10 million frees up cap to get the personnel which fills up Philips, contends to a championship, brings in additional revenues never seen before (merchandise, sponserships and such), that 10 million is seed money not a hinderence.

I started a thread on this already. Just amnestying Joe does not get you enough to fill up Phillips. Other moves are required. Josh, Al, Marvin, Zaza, Teague are owed 41 million at this point next year. There would be 7 empty slots for a 3.5 million cap hold. However, 2 players have about 2 million in options next year so the cap number is another 1 million higher (difference between minimum cap hold). There are another 1.4 million in cap holds for 4 players that are now out of the league. You will have a number 1 draft pick at about 1.7 million in there (difference of 1.2 million when he takes a slot). Before we even start next year we are about 48 million plus unsigned cap holds.....(our players we haven't resigned who have a higher cap hold.) Look here....http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/hawks.jsp scroll to the middle of the page.

Brook Lopez, not Marshon Brooks. Brook Lopez is an All-Star caliber 7' legit young center with offensive skills in the post and shot blocking ability. His only question mark is health but I'd absolutely take the chance on him. Memo is jut an expiring contract but he'd be a quality backup for the remainder of the year.

This is one of the first deals for Smith I'd consider. Not sure I agree but I'd be tempted.

http://www.macon.com...-interview.html

Good stuff - explains everything from stats for Hawks player compared to a team that gets more possessions.

Starts out saying there are people in the locker room that don't support him.....Joe or Al....it's one of the 2.

Edit - adding direct MP3 link for those browsing on a mobile phone that doesn't support Flash

<a href="http://acp77987.vmixcore.com/core-dl/71/0/7/1138085481/1771/71/1351/540f34f9ee7ff2f37889e60aa255ebe1.mp3">Direct MP3 Link Click Here</a>

So if it's based on effort, Zaza is our best??? Game impact!

Since 2008, Josh has missed 19 total games. The Hawks are 8-11 in those games. .421

Since 2008, Al has missed 49 total games. The Hawks are 26-23 in those games. .531

Since 2008, Joe has missed 25 total games. The Hawks are 15-10 in those games .600

Draw your own conclusions of course but based on this 4 year sample without Josh we are a below .500 team and would average 34.5 wins in an 82 game season. Without Al 43.5 games a year. Without Joe we would win 49.2 games a year.

What have we averaged the last 4 years? 48-34. Based on the Joe Sample we are 1.2 wins a year better if Joe isn't in the lineup. We are 4.5 games worse without Al. We are 13.5 games worse without Josh and don't make the playoffs.

More information. Joe's best season here was 25 ppg, no Al...Josh's first year to shine it was 06-07....we won 30 games. It wasn't until we got Horford and a point guard that we made the playoffs. Joe's impact here has alwasy been minimal. Joe's first 3 years here we won 26,30 and 37 games. It was with the maturation of Smith / Horford we became a playoff team. Without Joe in the lineup, we still would be a top 4 seed based on our win percentage. Without Al bottom 4, without Josh...we wouldn't even make the playoffs.

I have no idea, just deleted it... I won't be surprised if I don't get a package in the mail or something next.

tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, boom

I'm still not convinced that Josh is really asking to be traded but if he doesn't come out and deny it then I guess I'm going to have to believe it.

But you want to talk about hate? You're calling Joe our 3rd best player? Joe has been our best player since the day he arrived in Atlanta and that hasn't changed until maybe this year, although I'm still not ready to assume this is the Josh we'll see from now on nor is this the Joe we'll see from now on. No doubt that Joe is overpaid and he's probably starting to hit the downside of his career but I'm not ready to throw the dirt on him just yet and I think he'll remind us all how good he is once he's back, or at least I hope he does!

I'd be delighted to see Joe moved for Dwight but I don't see it happening. I'd be opening to trade Joe for anyone of near equivalent talent who is making less money and for less years, but I don't see that happening anytime soon either.

It isn't hate at all and Joe is not now nor recently has he been our best player. My definition of best is "most impactful in a positive way". Most everyone else's definition of best is "highest scoring". By that definition, Ben Gordon should have got a max contract with the Bulls, never been traded. Joe scores points. Based on the sheer volume of touches he gets assists (about 2 a game from someone bailing out one of his possessions). Based on the sheer number of minutes he gets, he gets rebounds. But none of those numbers are awe inspiring and that is why his PER suffers. He is a volume minutes player. But his scoring efficiency is suspect and scoring is his best attribute. Ask yourself this honestly in light of the last 8 games. Does Joe make everyone better? I would state he doesn't. Now this doesn't mean he isn't a good ball player and a helluva guy. What it means is if scoring is the definition of best, Joe is. If efficiency, getting your team involved, running the game plan, being the best off the ball as well as iso then Joe is not. Al and Josh do a much better job of getting the team involved, doing dirty work, etc.

With Joe's length, he should not be non-existent in steals/blocks. With Joe's size at the two, his should not be getting less than 5 rebounds per 48 minutes. Here are a couple of lists, all are taking from the Guard category on Yahoo.

PG, G, SG, G-F's that get more rebounds than Joe.

Andre Iguodala 6.4

Kobe Bryant 5.8

Trevor Ariza 5.7

Evan Turner 5.7

Paul George 5.4

Kyle Lowry 5.3

Tyreke Evans 5.1

Rajon Rondo 5.1

John Wall 5

Eric Gordon 5

Kawhi Leonard 4.9

Russell Westbrook 4.8

Landry Fields 4.5

Dorell Wright 4.5

Dwyane Wade 4.4

Jared Dudley 4.4

Nicolas Batum 4.4

Gerald Henderson 4.3

Alonzo Gee 4.2

Ricky Rubio 4.2

James Harden 4.2

Jason Kidd 4.2

MarShon Brooks 3.9

Josh Howard 3.9

Tony Allen 3.9

Jarrett Jack 3.8

Ty Lawson 3.8

Danny Green 3.7

Carlos Delfino 3.7

Brandon Rush 3.6

Marcus Thornton 3.6

Chris Paul 3.6

Kemba Walker 3.6

Andre Miller 3.5

Deron Williams 3.5

Kyrie Irving 3.5

Stephen Curry 3.5

PG, G, SG, G-F that get more assists than Joe - there are 43 on this list

Steve Nash 10.9

Rajon Rondo 10.1

Jose Calderon 8.7

Chris Paul 8.4

Ricky Rubio 8.2

Deron Williams 8.2

Tony Parker 7.9

Derrick Rose 7.8

John Wall 7.8

Kyle Lowry 7.2

Mike Conley 7.1

Ty Lawson 6.8

Andre Miller 6.7

D.J. Augustin 6.4

Raymond Felton 6.3

Jarrett Jack 6

Jeremy Lin 6

Monta Ellis 5.8

Russell Westbrook 5.6

Jason Kidd 5.6

Stephen Curry 5.6

Brandon Jennings 5.5

Jameer Nelson 5.5

Andre Iguodala 5.4

Kyrie Irving 5.2

Darren Collison 5.1

Baron Davis 5.1

Ramon Sessions 5.1

Tyreke Evans 5

Dwyane Wade 4.9

Kobe Bryant 4.9

Greivis Vasquez 4.7

Jrue Holiday 4.5

Devin Harris 4.5

Earl Watson 4.5

Jeff Teague 4.3

Chauncey Billups 4

Kemba Walker 4

C.J. Watson 3.9

Jamal Crawford 3.9

Louis Williams 3.8

Rodney Stuckey 3.8

Luke Ridnour 3.7

Blocks - 66 get more than Joe, 40 of which play less than 30 minutes a game.

Steals - 109 get more than Joe, 65 of which play less than 30 minutes a game.

Now if we're gonna play 2 on 2....hell yes I want Joe on my team. But a team game of 5 on 5, sorry but I don't. Not at his salary. He's been this way for a few years now. He's worth about 10 million a year max.

Take a real hard look at those categories and some of the names better than Joe. Now Let's look at Al, Josh in a few.

In Rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, Al is top 20 among F/C in all categories.

Josh is top 10 in all 4 categories among all Forwards and beats or nearly beats Joe in every category.

They are both better defenders, better team players and better all around players.

Josh is the not the kind of guy you build around, Josh is the kind of guy championship teams trade for at the deadline from teams that can't afford him the following year. Josh is not Dirk, not Kobe, Lebron, DWade, DWill, Paul. Josh is very good but he is not great.

I haven't hear Al or Joe or anyone else reportedly ask to be traded. You're acting like people are choosing Al over Josh and that's not true at all.

And if Josh really doesn't want to be here then how should we treat him?

Josh is hurt because he was snubbed. I think he's acting like a baby about it but we are not privy to what goes on behind the scenes. We spent our superstar money on the 3rd best player on our team. Perfect world would see Joe + traded for Dwight and you line up Josh at the 3, Al at the 4, Dwight at the 5 and Josh would be happy. You build around someone worthy and add pieces like Josh, Al (not sure which is Robin and which is Bat Girl). But Joe isn't good enough for that to happen.

I'm having my second rant of the week and it's only Thursday. I'm seeing multiple Josh hate threads again about the news he might want a trade and people suggesting we build around Horford, calling Horford our best defender, etc.

Fellas, I love Al. I want Al on this team. Of our big 3, I believe Joe is the mistake.

But guys, Al is not Batman. Al will never be Batman. Al is a Robin. Al can't create his own shot...that is strike one. Al is undersized at the 5, that is strike 2 meaning he has to be a 4. As a 4, he isn't the low post player required to build around. He has a good jumper, can score when led but be honest. Joe, Josh draw way more doubles than Al.

Al is the not the kind of guy you build around, Al is the kind of guy championship teams trade for at the deadline from teams that can't afford him the following year. Al is not Dirk, not Kobe, Lebron, DWade, DWill, Paul. Al is very good but he is not great.

Just stop it with all of these "Horford is the man" posts. Al will never be Karl Malone, or Elton Brand in his prime for that matter. But he isn't Al Henderson either. He's better, just not great! If Al and Joe were great, a team with Josh, Zaza, Teague wouldn't be challenging the NBA elite every night. They'd be much more missed.

The problem with the Hawks is: "Poor Salary management and poor talent evaluation".

Let's look at the obvious draft failures, the poorly timed contracts (everyone is a 5 yearer it seems). The bloated Joe's contract, Marvin's, letting Josh explore his value and then having to match 12+ per when he could have been signed for 10 average. Waiting too long to re-up rookie contracts has us overpaying in the end, late choices on the vets doing the same, sitting on Marvin's contract for way too long. I think he brings better before last season.

and 2 years of Zaza having to fight for minutes with the likes of Powell...how's that for talent evaluation?