thecampster

http://www.nba.com/hawks/video/2011/12/10/Tmactrainingcamp121011wmv-1931160

Around the 1 minute mark, McGrady says, "Well I'm a lot healthier than I was last year."

If that's the case, that he wasn't 100% last year (ie the knee was still a problem but that it isn't anymore), than this is very good news and a good signing.

http://www.nba.com/hawks/video/2011/12/10/Collinstrainingcamp121011wmv-1931080

Video of him on the court at about 16 second mark...he'll turn..run and you can see definition on his arms, waist, behind are much smaller....he's in much, much better shape.

Ha!Clear? What indication have you gotten from the team and Josh himself that the "model" requires him remaining a Hawk past 2013? No, you've got it *ss backwards. It's Josh who will more than likely be gone before the end of next season.

By the end of next season, Joe will be 32. Josh will be 27. A choice will have to be made by then or Josh walks for nothing because he will require a max - near max salary. Joe will be on the books for 21.5 mil, Horford for 12. Josh at 15-16 million at 27 is a bargain compared to an aging Joe at 32. Add Marvin and Teague's 11 million and the team would sign Josh at 16 million and already be over the cap 5 players in. Trade Joe for 3 - 6 million dollar players and you can build the team....Unless Joe is traded or the Hawks let Josh walk, we are lottery bound in 2 years.Look...don't shoot the messenger, just look at the salaries in 2013/14 and do the math. http://hoopshype.com...ies/atlanta.htmFYI, this is why I am a strong advocate of trading Joe and any collection of Hinrich, Marvin, Teague plus 2 future 1sts to bring Howard here or Paul. Unless we dump Joe's contract now....we will be in the lottery in 2 years.....

Won't we be at 61million to only 6 players? Yea, with only 9 million to spend you best believe it will be wash and repeat with regards to next season's offseason. Hinrich isn't going anywhere unless he's part of a larger deal or just flipped for another expiring because the team NEEDS that amount of salary to come off the books.

Just to be clear....JJ will be gone before the end of next season. The current model doesn't support keeping JJ and keeping Josh Smith after next season. By the end of next season, Josh will be the more valuable player and JJ will be on the decline.

That would require a team under the cap to want him otherwise we have to get within 150% of salary to take back. Still holding out hope with Indy now that the Mayo trade never actually existed, we need as many 2nd round low unguaranteed picks to fill out our roster next year as we can get.

Hinrich comes off the books next year. Hawks will be in a 5 million dollar better position. Hinrich will most likely be traded this year as an expiring 8 million. Next year both Josh and Zaza are expirings worth 18 million. Marvin has a 7.5 million player option after next year, Teague a 3+ million qualifying offer. We don't need 2nd's...we need bodies or it's back to the lottery in 2 years with Joe/Al as the core.

Atlanta record last year 44-38.

Feb 4th - Clippers - The Foul. This is the game of the infamous Blake Griffin foul on Al.

Record at the time: 32-18 / 64% (Even with injuries to JJ and Marvin). Record after "The Foul" 12-20 / 37.5%.

During that stretch of 32 games, Josh Smith goes over 20 points just 9 times in 32 games...he is out in 5 of those games.

Al breaks 20 points just 6 times.

Go back to January.

Joe comes back from "the Elbow", Hawks go 17-7 until "the foul". A winning percentage of 70.8%.

So after Joe got healthy, the Hawks were a 71% win team over the next 24 games (1/3 of a season). With Al, Josh, Marvin ailing the Hawks were a 37.5% team. Yes, I do think our problems had more to do with injuries, depth and defense than management.

I’m kind of tired of reading all of the negative comments about our Hawks the last couple of days and I wanted to provide perhaps some fresh optimism on a position by position basis.

PG - Last season we began the year with Bibby, Crawford, Teague. Our other 4 players on the floor ran themselves into circles trying to cover for Bibby defensively. Teague’s confidence at the start of the season was shot. Although a fine scorer with the ball in his hands, Jamal had a Jordan effect on the rest of the team. When he had the ball, the rest of the team just stood around and watched. Try to remember that there were nearly as many games last year where Jamal shot us out of games as into them. He had the lowest rebound rate among guards last year even though he is 6-6 and is a defensive liability.

This season, Teague is/should be the starter or will be the off rotation guard filling the spot of Jamal last year. Missed in the whining about chemistry with Hinrich last year is the fact that we were light years better defensively with him in the game. Just check the message boards from March/April last year. Once Hinrich was on the team, he was beset by injuries that hampered him. Defensively, PG will be a strength compared to this team last year.

SG – Last year, Joe Johnson was hiding the severity of his elbow at the start of the season and was essentially ineffective, out or recovering for about a 25 game stretch. His backup was Jamal and this caused defensive nightmares when he and Bibby were on the floor together. In addition, Mo Evans complained openly about playing time at the two feeling slighted. The Crawford that is who of which we do not speak was buried on the bench and shooting without conscience when he did play. At one point, Drew put Marvin in at SG when JJ was out just to stop the horrendous D and Marvin actually played the spot quite well.

This season, JJ is healthy and spent the entire off-season working on his game with Durant. Tracy McGrady will back him up. Although not the lightning in the bottle of Jamal, he is much steadier offensively, taller and generations better defensively than Crawford.

SF – Marvin spent 80% of last year looking like the hunchback of Notre Dame. In one game, he shot 3 point jumper flat footed and fell over the 3 point line. Just when he started to look better, he was slammed…not once but twice in 2 weeks re-aggravating the back. The afore mentioned Mo Evans was his backup and was eventually replaced by Damien Wilkins. Wilkens was a breath of fresh air for our squad because he was the only guy under 6-8 to play D.

This season will see our first glimpse of a healthy Marvin Williams in 3 years. That alone is an improvement at the position. However, the club added a desperately needed 6-10 3 point shooter in Radmonovic who will play at least average D based on height alone.

PF- The 2 biggest criticisms of Josh Smith last year was the re-emergence of the 3 point brick and his ballooning weight. His backups are currently hoping to make the rotation on other clubs. Not known to everyone, Josh suffered through knee tendonitis the last 25 games of the year, severely hampering his play on the court.

This year, Josh has lost 30 lbs and again spent the entire offseason working on different aspects of his game receiving rave reviews from everyone in attendance at Hawks practice so far.

C – The most consistent player on the Hawks last year, Al Horford. Most consistent that is until about 25 games to go in the year when a hard foul by Blake Griffin had Al landing flat on his back. His production dropped noticeably after that point as did the consistency of his mid-range jumper.

Al is back, healed and ready to go, as is Zaza. The noticeable improvement is a muscled up, toner Jason Collins.

All is not lost in Hawk land with the departure of Crawford and Wilkins. I for one see our club as stronger, not weaker with some tweaking left to go. I saw our season last year of one with players trying to play through injuries due to a lack of team depth. We started the season on fire when healthy and I expect the same.

Billups is going to Den or Miami

Miami is not under the cap, Denver is.

I did read somewhere that NO was taking too much salary back... but, of course, that could have been remedied, I'm sure.

They are under the cap, so they can take back extra salary. They currently only have 42 million committed which is why this needed to be a multiplayer for 1 type of a trade. The Hornets needed quality bodies on the roster. The trade a superstar, get back 4 good players. Currently on their roster, http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_orleans.htm This trade would have taken them from 6 to 9 players on the roster, while only increasing their payroll 15 million. Martin was signed through next season, Scola through 2015, Dragic in his last year and Odom in his last year with a team option for next year. This trade would have effectively given them 11 million in expirings this year and 12 million in expiring next year. Assuming they were in a good playoff position, they could have parlayed those into good players from other teams at the trading deadline.

N.O. Got screwed. The solution for N.O. is....no Chris Paul in 12 months or 23 million in expiring contracts and a roster capable of making the playoffs.

Houston is the one that should be thanking the basketball Gods right now.

Okay, I'm having a really hard time figuring out why the league cancelled the Paul trade. Let me show you what I mean

Lakers Get C. Paul ------ Lose Gasol and Odom

Rockets Get Gasol ------- Lose Martin, Scola, Dragic and a future 1st

Hornets Get Odom, Martin, Scola, Dragic, future 1st ---- Lose Paul

I don't understand what the problem is. In my opinion, losing both Odom and Gasol is greater than gaining Paul.

Getting Gasol is much less than losing Kevin Martin, Scola, Dragic and a future 1st.

Getting Odom, Martin, Scola, Dragic and a future 1st is much better than just Paul. Odom, Martin, Scola are all players we as Hawks have coveted. Paul is great but he is just a point guard and with his, Bynum and Kobe's salary it very much handcuffs them from adding solid pieces...they are one injury away from mediocrity. Gasol and Odom really balanced that team.

I don't get the problem....This seems like a pre-ordained thing from the owners to contest. In my opinion, N.O. made out like bandits in that deal.

Yeah, but why use it for Hinrich's expiring deal???

Makes way more sense to want to reduce Joe's MASSIVE cap killer or at least Marvin's deal. Say if Joe's deal was reduce to at least 75%, it would give us some flexibility. I think his deal is for $125M. So 75% of that would be about $94M...BIG DIFFERENCE! And waaayyy more reasonable for him.

See the answers others gave. Kirk would be willing because 4 years guaranteed is better than 1 year guaranteed. Joe would not because 6 years guaranteed is not necessarily better than 4 years guaranteed if the salary drop is too great.

You would use this on a player in his last or next to last year as a way to avoid future free agency mishaps and correct cap restrictions today. I'm guessing this is designed to avoid massive player movement.

So if I understand you correctly. Hinrich has 1 year and 8 million left. 60% of 8 million is 4.8 million. So the Hawks could reduce his salary this year by extending his contract for additional years as long as this year's salary doesn't decrease to less than 4.8 million. I.E. He could sign for a 3 year extention at say 5.5 mil, 6 mil and 6.5 mil in exchange for reducing this year's salary to 5 million and thereby creating 3 million in cap/LT room. Or am I misunderstanding you?

Am I the only one here who thinks that Brewer's defensive prowess, heady play, and high effort level makes him an even exchange for Crawford almost straight up? Brewer gives us the extra wing defender off the bench that we have needed for awhile. Considering that I honestly thought we were going to lose Crawford for nothing, I would be happy with just getting Brewer. We'd be losing out in scoring volume but gaining in defense (both on and off the ball), efficiency, rebounding, versatility, and pretty much everything else. Anything on top of that would be gravy.

And since we would need another wing shooter without Crawford, Watson sounds good to me. As for Asik...really? I've haven't seen anything that makes me think he'll ever be much more than 6 fouls. He's a good rebounder and gives effort defensively, but he lacks offensive skills and doesn't have the bulk to be an impact player on defense at the 5. He's 25, so I don't think he's suddenly going to develop the frame. We can get what he'd give us from a vet minimum guy.

No, you are not the only one.

Holy SNOT!!!! Marvin looks like a legit PF now...he looks ripped and Josh now looks like a legit SF....just crazy. Also, looking at Marvin, he looks huge compared to Teague. I was skeptical when people said he looked taller, he definitely looks taller.

We all were warned about this last summer by numerous people, so it shouldn't be surprising. But even though it isn't surprising, it isn't like this situation doesn't suck.

I got called quite a few names for pointing this out last summer. Therapy makes it all better though. :)

bumping this so it stays at the top and hopefully someone reads it

Unless they are willing to go over the cap...Who knows

They did say at one time they would go over the cap for Lebron...Maybe they look at Paul the same way

They are over the cap already. You mean "the luxury tax thresh hold".

Let me do my best to explain this. Once you are over the cap, you can't sign players except for the minimum. The only exception to that is if you have exemptions. However, once you hit the Luxury tax, those exemptions do not exempt you from the LT. You still would have to pay the Tax. AHF did a substantial write up on this here . Except I believe 13 is required now...I read that somewhere.

Now when you take into account you are trading 4 for 2...that creates 2 more minimum slots. You aren't going to get a good player at that slot....period!!!! trading 4 for 2...even if it's Chris Paul/Okafor is a step backwards because there is no one to come back in and take those 2 extra players slots. You become a 6 man rotation and are 1 injury away from the lottery. Welcome to the wonderful world of JJ's contract.

There is no way we get Paul and not give up Josh Smith. No Way in hell.

Paul

JJ

Marvin

Horf

Okafor

not a bad lineup if you ask me.

Wurider, you can't give up Smith because that requires you to give up more players than you get back. Josh makes 12mil/per. Okafor makes about the same. Paul makes 16.5. To get the salaries to match up, you need about 16 million in salary (minimum) and because the Hawks are close to the limit, you want to give back more than 16.5...about 17.5 to squeeze money for another signing. Only JJ on our team makes that much. Horford is next but he can't go if Josh goes and vice versa because you'd have no PF. So next on the list are Kirk are 8 mil, Marvin at 7.5 mil. That adds up to 15.5. You are still 500,000 short of what you need for a deal and really need 2 mil more because with the extra players you give up, you'll have to sign 2 extra minimum contracts to fill out the roster and that pushes you a couple million into the luxury tax. the only way you get a player with 16.5 million in salary when you have lots of roster spots to fill is by giving up similar value. In order to add that value you have to add their only other piece that matters which is Okafor which really jacks up salaries. From a GM perspective, that limits Atlanta's options because of our limited spots, money commited to JJ/Horf/Smith at the top.

I see, so It will be

Josh Smith

Jeff Teague

Kirk Hinrich

Marvin Williams or 2012 2nd Round Pick

1st Round - 2013 and 2nd Round Pick

1st Round - 2015 (conditional)

for

Chris Paul (as long he signed long term)

Okafor

Fillers

But the question because if we do that, our chance with resigned Jamal becomes better or worst?

No, it will not. I'm glad you guys aren't the GM. There are financial questions to be asked. Trading 4 for 2 kills us salary wise. We won't be able to sign anyone....ANYONE beyond that and will have no bench. Also, any deal that netted us Okafor will include a center for them (ie...Zaza). Smith won't be going because he makes less than Okafor and Paul. I already posted this in another thread. If you are getting both Okafor and Paul, you are giving up JJ, Zaza and probably Marvin. You are also giving up 1 first, not 2 nor a second.

You would line up....Paul, Hinrich, JSmith, Horford, Okafor. You probably SNT Crawford at this point for 2 lower paid players to help fill the roster (Craw at 8 per, take back a 5 mil, 2.5 mil). You find a jump shooting 2 in that. You keep Teague as your backup point. JJ, Zaza, Marvin (healthy) and a first is plenty to get those 2.

FYI, you run pick and roll, penetrate and kick till your eyes bleed with that group and defensively you could stop anyone. You get Hinrich to resign for 5 million after his contract is up and it frees up money for the money for Paul.

@ northcyde

Thanks for the feedback but I feel my information is accurate.

@ DJ

How's everything going? We got hoops again.

@ Randy

3pt shooting is a lost cause for Smith but the ill-advised jumpers are really what kill most about Smith. Those happen far too often.

@ North

We talked about Smith-Kemp before. While both Kemp and Smith are uptempo players the biggest difference is three things offensively.

1. Kemp has solid offensive bbiq and Smith has low offensive bbiq.

2. Kemp has big hands and can palm a basketball which gives him a great advantage when dunking on people. Smith has small hands and cannot palm a Basketball. This is one of the reason Smith rarely dunks on people unless he going in with a head of stream.

3. Kemp has solid movement while Smith has poor offensive movement.

Smith actually has more talent than Kemp but those things hold Smith back from ever being the Reignman in terms of offensive impact. I think Josh has reached his potential in a skill set form. He can still grow in terms of scoring, decision making, and rebounding.

I really believe Josh needs to be a number one option with someone to see how far he truly is. He will see how talented he is but he will see how inconsistent he is. Something tell me he hasn't excepted the blame of his share yet in Atlanta. A change of scenery would do Josh well as well as a potential reality check.

You should listen to Northcyde.....his evals are much closer to accurate on this.

Also, Smith/Horford with Nash/Paul/etc instead of JJ = allstar appearance for both of them. Smith/Horford's production without a create first point guard is just ridiculous and goes highly under appreciated.

A solid point guard and a spot up 3pt shooting guard/small forward would be invaluable to this team. What most people haven't noticed is our lack of exterior ballhandling has created ball movement problems, not the other way around. no pg means JJ has the ball in his hands too much.

On the subject of JJ's numbers, a few of those are highly generous, namely the defensive categories....blocks/help side and man on man. for his size and strength, JJ should be a lock down defender but isn't.

I know....I know...I'm not smart when it comes to these things...but?...why do you need a s-n-t on an unrestricted free agent?

Because we would get something back for Jamal and Jamal could get more in a contract. It's the win / win scenario.

You don't trade for Brewer to keep him unless you are moving Marvin or packaging Brewer with someone else to fill salary.

AHF,

Thanks for this. However, I'll bet $6 and a half a pack of twinkies it doesn't stop the annual flood of "We should sign these 9 NBA stars and make room by waiving our 12th man" posts.

However, thanks for tidebreaker.

So let me add on to your post with this tiny tidbit.

People, if you think "someone" is coming to Atlanta, then they are coming here in a straight up trade or a sign and trade. Analyze why another team would do such a deal and why we would want it too. Familiarize yourself with the requirements and process and then post those in the trade forum, not on the main page.

See you guys no more about our cap situation then I do...I guess we are in a lose lose situation with the money and are pretty much stuck with what we have unless a trade goes down

When people say "sign player x" or "trade for player x", they often forget that this is not a video game. The other team has to have something you want. in the case of Chandler, Dallas does want JJ but the salaries don't match up. You aren't going to pay more than 12mil per for Chandler based on age/injury history. So you woul need 6 million + back from Dallas in Salary. So you'd be looking at something like JJ+filler for Chandler and Marion (disclaimer: I am not saying this is possible or probable), and you would have to ask yourself, would Dallas do that, would we do that. That is a trade to nowhere and so you shouldn't/wouldn't even bring that up.

Now if you are following the talk on amnesty. Dallas is talking about amnestying Brendan Heywood. Assuming he got through the waiver process, he could then be had (not going to happen but again, just explaining).

Now is not the time to do it though. Wait a few years, especially until we decide what to do with Smith. The amnesty can be used throughout the life of the CBA ( only on players signed BEFORE the new CBA was ratified. So if we do use it, it will probably be on JJ or Marvin or possibly even Horford.

The Hawks need to hold onto this, and not use it this year under any circumstances.

I agree. I think people forget that Joe, Josh, Al, Pachulia and even Marvin are seen as commodities despite their salary.

I heard something like that. If that's the case then Joe would make sense. Dallas, NYK, Nets, Chicago would all probably take a run at him in auction and end up having to pay the bulk of his contract. Its plenty risky though. Not that i want Joe gone but we are definitely restricted in adding talent at this point.

Which is why I say amnestying Joe is not the answer....we're right at the cap if we amnesty him. But trade Joe in a 2 for 1, 3 for 2 type of swap and you pick up an extra player for the same salary. One other thing, Josh got in a scuffle with Rondo/Robinson at a night club a little while back. First word was that a guy took a swing at Rondo but video has surfaced of Josh pushing the guy in question on their way out the door. Remembering I'm the huge Josh fan, he's got to stay out of the clubs, fly straight this year or he'll be gone....I could easily see this team competing for it all this year or being blown up by March.