thecampster

Nice and simple. you select to exclude 3 end of the season games. Last year Josh and Al only missed one game each....there is no sample there. Joe missed 3 and we were 2-1 in those. The reality is simple. As currently constructed 2011. Joe Johnson fills a slot on the team. The team rises and falls with Josh and Al.

We've been arguing on this board for weeks about how much better off the team would be if we traded away Josh for a center. We've argued for just as long about who the best player / most important player on the team is. Well in a 5 game sample without Josh, the Hawks are 1-4. The average game score is: 92.4 - 103.4. With Josh, the Hawks are 43 -32 The average game score is: 95.4 - 95.3. This is just one of a series of stats that show the importance of Josh to this team. Without Joe in the lineup the team was 6-4. Without Al in the lineup the team was 3-2. Small sample for games without? Yes. Still very telling? Absolutely!!!

he's been playing on a bum knee bro. That's why he sat out the last game and why he was pulled the other night (it wasn't a benching).

how's that hopey changey stuff working out for you?

So these stats beg this question. Should Al Jefferson and Tim Duncan stop shooting jumpers and be benched if they do since they are shooting worse than Josh?

Again I say, just look at the body of work from Feb 1st through tonight. Josh is not the problem.

Honestly DJ, I don't think many Hawks fans deserve the team they have. 6 years ago, the team was led by Al Harrington, Tyrone Lue and Antoine Walker and finished 13 and 69. 5 short years ago, the team was led by Joe Johnson and Al Harrington with Mike Woodson as the coach. The team finished with 26 wins and 56 losses. 4 years ago with Joe Johnson dominating the ball for 25 points and 20 shots a game, Josh, Josh and Marvin finally started. The team improved to 30 wins...yes, that's it...thirty wins. We had Zaza, we had Joe shooting 20 times a game and we finished 22 games under .500. Finally Al showed up, we got a point guard. Now we are perennial playoff contenders. The less Joe has scored over the years, the more we've won. The more Al and Josh have continued to dominate play, the more we've won. But we have people on the board who want to go back to Zaza at center, Josh and Marvin on the bench and Joe shooting 20+ times a game. We don't deserve our 50 win team. Just one man's opinion. I think people around here don't remember what a 13 win season felt like.

Careful man...I gave full statistical support in 2 separate threads and I'm still pull the knives out of my back. Some people just won't see it.

Volume shooting does not make someone top 5. He's not even currently performing top 2 on this team.

Reason 2 for Dwight coming here is it's his home town.

The answer is very simple. Given our current contract commitments, you won't be able to get him without either A. A sign and trade of Dwight for Al Horford and Filler B. A sign and trade of Dwight and filler for Joe Johnson. C. A multi-team trade involving Dwight, Joe or Al and lots of little pieces we don't have. Addendum: Remember that one of the major allures of playing in Atlanta for Dwight is playing with Josh.

But the numbers bear out similarly when looking at PER AL 19th Josh 36 Joe 73 As far as are the players that much different - Joe has had a reduction in FG%, 3PT%, FT%, Rebounds, Points, steals and .1 more T/O a game so yes...it is that much different.

Actually, I would submit to you that although the metric is flawed (all are), you could easily say the metric is a sampling system. +/- error kind of a thing. As I said earlier, rebounds are always going to be weighed too heavily. But you can't discount them. Where Howard gets hurt and why he isn't 1st is his missed free throws. Lebron gets hurt on FG% because he's fouled going to the basket a lot which generates FG misses and FT misses. Same with Kobe. But if you consider it as slightly flawed, you find Al and Josh in the top 20 and then you +/- however you want. But you find Joe far down in the 60's. It just goes to show that he is not anywhere near where his contract says he is. and by the way, it doesn't rate best/worst player. It rates floor impact. Kevin Love's floor impact for Minnesota is beyond measure.

Posted from http://basketball.realgm.com/src_fromtherafters/138/20080109/the_reina_value/ System provided by Christopher Reina FIC Here is the formula I use to determine the FIC: (Points + Offensive Rebounds + .75 Defensive Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks - .75 Field Goal Attempts - .375 Free Throw Attempts - Turnovers - .5 Personal Fouls) Now, here is how Reina Value is calculated: With some context given to the statistic used to rank players, here is the crux of what the Reina Value actually is: Players are ranked from highest to lowest by the total FIC for the season, not per 40 minutes or per game, which I decided to do because players are only valuable when they are on the floor. Beside each player?s actual salary, we slide in raw salary figures, ranked top to bottom, which determines their ?deserved? salary. We use the actual salaries because players deserve whatever their agents can negotiate and GMs/owners can afford to pay. The player who has the highest FIC receives the highest ?deserved? salary. The player with the second highest FIC receives the second highest salary. The player with the hundredth highest FIC receives the hundredth highest salary. We then calculate the percentage increase or decrease from the actual and deserved. If Dwight Howard, who is making a little over $6 million in 2007-2008, is ranked first using the FIC, his ?Reina Value? would be Kevin Garnett?s $23.7 million salary, making his difference 291.9%. Conversely, if Stephon Marbury is ranked 139th and his actual salary is just over $19 million, he?d be in line to make about $5 million. His percentage difference, therefore, would be -73%. By using the Reina Value to examine the rosters of all 30 teams, it soon becomes clear which GM's are getting favorable returns and which players are out/under performing their contracts. I find it to be a fairly solid metric.

Reina is contrived directly off of FIC. The author tries to not skew for rebounds but it's hard not to. The ratio still skews against volume shooters. I am sorry I didn't post a link to values: http://basketball.realgm.com/src_playerrankings.php Joe's number is down because the formula accurately weighs against volume shooting and not getting to the free throw line.

I thought I'd do some digging....light digging. Checking Josh, Al and Joe per their FIC40 and Reina values (FIC is Floor Impact per 40 minutes. Reina is value for their contract.) Al has an FIC40 of 18.2 and a Reina Value of 217% above Salary. Josh has an FIC40 of 16.2 and a Reina Value of 40% above Salary. Joe has an FIC 40 of 12.6 and a Reina Value of 37% below Salary. What this means. Al makes 5,444,857 but is performing at $17,260,197 Josh makes 11,600,000 but is performing at $16,240,000 Joe makes 16,324,500 but is performing at $10,284,435

And Marvin doesn't pull up before contact so he gets to the line much more.

See, this is the part that frustrates people the most though on the other side of this argument. the guy grabs 18 rebounds and puts out 8 assists and there are numerous people in this thread (and every other one) being far more critical than you are. On a night that Josh was 2 assists short of a triple double and 2 rebounds short of 20, people are still hacking on him. They seem to find the reason to dislike the guy instead of appreciate that he's a Hawk. There are a whole lot of people in Cleveland that would take him right now. Half the teams in the league would take him in a heartbeat and give up plenty to do it. But we as Hawks fans would rather beat in to the ground his deficiancies. Playing the comparison game....who is this player? The year he was traded his stats were: 26.0 ppg 44% FG%, 29% 3pt %. 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, .4 bpg 2.3 t/o Although an exceptional scorer and athlete, he was a below average defender and lazy rebounder who was eventually traded for a more team oriented player to improve his team's chances in the playoffs. --------------- That player.....Dominique Wilkins. The only numbers in that set better than Josh's this year is PPG and .4 t/o a game and Josh is a superior defender. I would really like to see people stop and recognize what we have and stop pushing to see another great player shipped out of Atlanta.

I literally laughed out loud when I read this.

I went to the game tonight (first this season). For being only about half full, it was a active crowd. JJ went out in the third quarter and it threw off the rotation quite a bit. Crawford got a lot of time (almost 39 minutes) and played scattered for a while. After JJ went out, and for about 6 minutes, Al, Josh, Kirk were all on the bench for the same time. On the floor for most of the comeback in one combination or another was Zaza, Teague, Craw, Wilkens, Marvin. most of the time our starters were out, some combination of this group was on the floor. The +/- is skewed a bit because it took a few possessions for the momentum to get stopped once we reinserted those 3.

Joe got his shot blocked in the last 5 minutes because he drove like a pansy

Now let me play devil's advocate. If Joe hits one more shot a game on a pass from Josh, Josh's assist numbers aren't down. That is most definately a relative stat to the play of others on the team.

Again, I did not pick those games to back up my position. I picked those games because that's when the real losing began and it was easy to gather based on Yahoo's split stats. You are trying to compare the t/o to Assist ratio of a power foward to a guard. Any player asked to handle the ball as much as he is has elevated turnovers. You're getting upset about 2.3 t/os a game. That's an average of 2.5 points a game. or if you go 1 to 1 it's 4.6 points a game. You can't in all honesty be that upset about those stats enough to overlook the drop in Joe and Al's performance. Joe being down 9 points a game over his high point with the hawks. Al and Joe both do not get to the line near enough. Half of Joe's very mediocre FT numbers are gimme's at the end of the game. 2-4 points of Joe's average are those same gimme's. Now in my opinion, the drop in Al's numbers are most probably him still being affected by the super hard foul and coming back too soon. Other than a few games before the all star announcements, Joe has been less than stellar all year. My only agenda is in not losing the most impactful player on our team to the mob mentality of fans.

My agenda is simple. I value Josh's game and get annoyed with the excessive hate. Again the numbers aren't random. They are pulled from Split stats on Yahoo for each player.

You know what Craw...maybe I jumped the gun on you there. Maybe I'm jumping the gun on Jack. I'll be fair. Can you guys justify the stats, purely the stats drop off of Al/Joe in the last 24 games...when the team has gone 10-14. That's what these stats are. They are the last 24 games as a team. with a 4 game under .500 record. Look at Joe, Josh, Al. In those 24 games, can you justify Joe's performance. Al's drop off (might be the back from the fall...don't know...no one has said). By the way..3 of those wins came at the front...they are 7-14 in the last 21.