thecampster

I've been looking pretty heavy at the Hawks after the Bibby trade and trying to make sense of their cap situation. Current situation for 2011/2012 is this:

7 players under contract. (all signed through 2013 except Kirk)

Joe - $18 million

Josh - $ 12.4 million

Al - 12.0 million

Kirk - 8 million

Marvin - 7.5 million

Zaza - 4.75 million

Teague - 1.6 million

Total: 64 million.

Meaning as currently constructed we can only sign new players for the minimum or the exception except for our own players. Given the current numbers we only have 8 million before the luxury tax and must sign 5 players minimum.

Givens: Etan, Powell will not be back.

there are only a couple of possibilities I can see for juggling the roster. the way I see it, Joe - Marvin - Zaza are our 3 albatross contracts. Josh, Al, Kirk (assuming he's 15/6 like his career when starting at the point) give you reasonable production for their salaries. But Joe's salary is just too large when making choices between he and Al/Josh at 2/3rds the cost.

Either Joe or Jamal will get traded.....either Jamal in a sign and trade or Joe in a multiplayer shakeup. The Hawks can not afford both with Josh/Al eating up 24 million (1/3 of the Luxury Tax threshold).

the problem is created because Joe/Al/Josh get a combined 9.2 million dollar raise next year. (mostly Al then Joe). So I'm guessing Joe is traded in the offseason for 2-3 contracts, one of which would be a starting caliber shooting guard. Then, 2 of the 3 of Zaza, Marvin, Jamal are then trade for 3+ players.

I think this is it guys...this is the ASG's run at a title with this core...I think there is a small blow up in the offseason if we do not reach the ECF. The roster will get too thin otherwise without cap/LT room to replenish.

im glad teague is getting burn and learning

That's what I was thinking. At least we're getting something out of being shorthanded. At this point, the regular season doesn't mean much to me. I'm much more interested in being completely healthy (something we haven't had in the past) and focused come playoff time.

I think tonight we learned some valuable things. We Kirk this week we were just burying good offensive teams due to better flow, defensive intensity. We were in control of this game before Josh went down. We were up 10 around the time he went out and it went south from there. I'm not saying that these 2 players are the team. I am saying that unlike past playoff years, we at least are developing a core identity that when clicking and healthy is hard to beat.

Lastly, if Kirk was injured and made that big of a difference, imagine Kirk healthy....Teague getting 15-20 and playing confident. This team will be much improved in April.

Over his last 4 games Teague is 7-25 from the field. I would hold off on that apology if i was you Diesel.

Speaking truth to power like always.

The reality is Teague can do good things for us when he's in with the main starting 4. But for now, he's got a way to go before he can stand on his own...tonight shows that.

Sorry but we're not online at 3am to moderate but when we do see violations we will warn people for them and have been doing so long before you joined and will be doing so long after you're gone.

And honestly I'll take the warning to stop people from constantly hijacking legit threads.

Your whole statement really warrants you a warning from the mods but since I know it is not going to happen because they only want to make a big stink of things with the newbies I will just take it in stride, but for the record this insinuation is something that should not be allowed. Lastly, I feel the same way about people in love with Mr. Hinrich when he still has not done a thing to show he is some type of heady floor general, honestly he has been on the floor both games when we gave up huge leads, not Teague and he makes some disturbing TO's to be a vet. Carry on.

Notice the effect of my statement. An obvious exxageration and lampooning. Your comments on Teague and Hinrich are so far of a reach that they seem just the same. I love Teague man. I think in 2 years he will be the real deal but there is a reason that 1 year college point guards rarely succeed out of college. The BBIQ required to play the point in the NBA is so much higher than any other position on the floor it's unreal. As shown by the change in the team by just removing Bibby's SPF-3 level defense from the floor, the team is playing out of it's mind defensively. The same is true on the other end of the floor.

When Bibby, Crawford, Joe and at times Teague were running the squad, our bigs eventually went rogue and just started running the break themselves (or worse yet playing facilitator at the top of the key during half court sets) because they could not trust the Guards to beat them down the floor and or give the ball up to a finisher at that end. On what other team in the league are the Center and PF the most effective at running the break? There was a play tonight where Hinrich was on the right side of the floor, took the screen from Josh and drove right. He pulled the Double and didn't even have the ball. He had discretely bounce passed the ball behind his back to Josh on the pick and pop. Josh actually missed the shot because he had no rhythm. When the bounce was head right up into his hands he had a look of absolutely shock on his face that the return pass was there so quickly and on the money. He lazied into position assuming he would have time before getting a return. You can't fault Hinrich. He is just so far ahead of that part of the game right now that it is he that looks out of sync at times. in time, our studs will mesh with him at the point and things will get downright Globetrotter for short stretches (you've seen some of that already).

If you truly love Teague that much than you should be loving this trade. Most PGs in the game have some form of serious flaw in their game. Nash is a weak in a number of defensive areas. Some are bad outside shooters. Some are below average passers, foul prone, etc. In Kirk you have good at all, master of none PG. But he has no glaring deficiency. Teague can truly learn from him by guarding him in practice, working with him in drills on the side, picking his brain, etc. Your boy's best friend should be Kirk Hinrich because it's from learning from someone fundementally sound like Kirk that JT will take that step to having a 12 year career as a starter instead of going the way of Salim.

Yes Teague is our best defensive guard it is great to see him making an impact

[EDITED]

Even with Bibby/Mo and all the injuries, we were 7th best in the league in points allowed at 95.5.

Since adding Kirk, playing Teague and losing those 2 we are giving up 81 points a game (on the road no less).

In front of us are:

Boston - 91.2

Chicago - 92.5

New Orleans - 92.6

Milwaukee - 92.9

Orlando - 94.1

Miami -94.4

If we keep this up we could finish top 5 defense.

A couple of thoughts there.

yes he was that bad defensively.

Yes, Mo Evans was also part of the problem defensively. Maybe the second biggest part (bigger than Craw). Think in your head..when was the last true steal Mo got?

Yes, Al, Marvin, Josh, Joe are that good defensively.

playing 4 on 5 our defense was good enough. that's why everyone yelling to trade Josh, Marvin was so frustrating. They really do have that kind of a defensive impact...so much so as to make up for Bibby being a broken screen door.

Diesel, some of the guys and I discussed him at length 2 year ago in a thread where I didn't want to overpay but everyone in the discussion was in complete agreement that he would make us light years better.

The best analogy I can make relates to baseball, how a quick worker on the mound keeps the infielders on their toes and reduces errors while never letting the batters get comfortable in the box. This is the effect Hinrich has on a game.

Just for giggles...he played 16 minutes last night...8/3/3. 32 minutes (like Bibbs/Jamal) and that would be 16 pts/6 assists/6 rebounds. I know that doesn't equate but you see the effect. One play last night Josh started to lead the break and Kirk caught him by mid court and demanded the ball. I almost fell off the couch. You never realize the effect of players on everyone on the floor until someone else comes in and changes the mentality. I can't wait till April when he's in full charge and has everyone's respect.

Kirk was born for LD's offense.

The Bibby trade is looking great. Hinrich looked excellent in limited minutes, I mean, wow, finally defense from the PG position. I can't remember the last time I've seen that from the Hawks. The Celts, Nets, and Knicks will get all the pub from their trades but I'm starting to think there may have been no trade that will pay off more immediate dividends than this one. Our defense looks like it can be amazing when Hinrich Wilkins and Josh + Horf are all in the game.

I was talking about this in the trade quotes. We are so used to seeing Horf/Marvin/Josh rotate to help Bibby that we didn't realize how much more effective they would be when allowed to man their positions normally.

As I've said multiple times before. Kirk is known more for one thing than any other...Making the people around him better.

MrH...a question or 2...if they waived someone (say Etan)....does that affect that luxury tax situation? Especially if that player is picked up.

forget it...found my own answer

In the summer of 2005, the new CBA provided an amnesty clause: a one-time opportunity for each team to waive one, and only one, player and avoid having him count against the team's luxury tax calculation. The amnesty provision only affected the team's luxury tax status, though. The waiving team must continue to pay the player, his salary continues to count against their salary cap, and all other salary calculations are unaffected. However, the team may not re-sign or re-acquire the player for the length of the terminated contract. In all other respects, the player is treated just like any other waived player.

So for example (if I understand this right), the Hawks could waive Etan Thomas (1,223,166 million) to move under the Luxury tax (once a year deal) and then sign a different waived player to a vet minimum deal if it helps them.

So going off "MRNiques" list

Troy Murphy

Jared Jeffries

T.J. Ford

Jason Kapono

Pryzbilla (possibly)

Darius Songalia

Anthony Carter or Renaldo Balkman in NY

Jamario Moon (i read somewhere and can't find it again that he is a possibility)

one could possibly be added if we waived someone to make room for their vet minimum if they took that to play.

Thought it was interesting that the Hawks now have the 9th highest salary (in terms of cap hit, at least) in the NBA.

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/index.jsp

MrH...a question or 2...if they waived someone (say Etan)....does that affect that luxury tax situation? Especially if that player is picked up.

i think hibbert is cool but I picked Al jefferson. 18/9 with a low post game would look good beside horford 16/9 pick and pop game.

27 minutes a game...1.8 blocks almost 8 boards and 13.4 points...give him 35 minutes and it's 2.4 blocks and 10.4 rebounds...17 points. He's just a scary shot blocker and big enough to guard the centers that kill us.

Anyone not voting Hibbert is thinking very small picture. Hibbert is the best, most impactful player of the lot.

Per the guys on Mayhem in the AM, the plan is a lineup of

Hinrich

Crawford

JJ

Smith

Horford

Bringing Marvin and Zaza first off the bench. Collins may start on big lineups. Change in personnel is they wish to run people out of the building (ie...Bibby couldn't). Anyone else hear anything else similar with Hinrich/Crawford starting together?

Question: What went on between Crawford and Hinrich?

They were pitted against each other for the starter role, which Hinrich won.

Teague should start and should have played 30 minutes last night, he did nothing so wrong in that game. Jamal has not done anything in weeks and has been getting consistent minutes, he makes a shot or 2 and get's all the minutes from there on out. Jamal is a ballhog that I am tired of looking at. Hinrich is a combo guard. You have to give Teague the confidence that he is the one in charge of running things. Finally, I have never seen a team change lineups from game to game and do anything worth talking about. Stick with something, it sends wrong message.

OMG, Hinrich is not a combo guard. He has been forced to play the 2, but the only thing about him that is combo is his height (6'4"). He is a pass first, floor vision, ball handling, man up D poing guard. Quit reading ESPN columnists for all your insight.

What type of numbers will Mr. Hinrich have the rest of the season with the Hawks? He has the same PER as the guy that got this problem started "Mr Bust" himself. Both have a 13.6 PER. Unfortunately, Hinrich cost even more than Marvin with a similar production rate, just another reason I think this is just a horrible trade. Moving on, let's see your prediction for the guy. I say he averages 10 pts and 5 assists a game with the Hawks for the rest of season in 30 minutes a night. What you say?

Seriously man, have you ever seen him play just the point. I've laid out every statistical reason why you are wrong on this. Take some time and see how it goes. Give him 5-10 games to adjust and then start grading him on what you see then.

:conversation:

Checked on RealGM late last night and their posters were excited because Jordon Crawford was coming to them. They really like him.

Another Hawk draft pick down the drain. So, who cares if we traded this year's first round pick. It's not like it was going to do us any good.

That's okay...current rumor is Battier to Memphis for Thabeet and a number one. Yes, that's right...Memphis is considering giving away a first round pick to get rid of Thabeet.

Cleveland, IMHO.

Cleveland could use him (and Marvin). Same with Milwaukee. But the Kaman trade makes the most sense.

Personally, I'd love a deal that nets us Bogut but I think that's just a pipe dream. Another possibility is Okafur. But in all those scenarios, adding Marvin or others to the mix is required and unfortunately next year's cap situation is a problem. Next year, right now, the Hawks have 64 million committed to just 7 players. Any multiplayer deal that brought us back 1 player or a player plus an expiring is not healthy.

This is JJ's contract and Jamal's non contract coming back to bite us. Keepers not under contract next year (and not included in the figure that is just 8 million short of the luxury tax are) Crawford, Wilkens, Armstrong, Collins, Sy. I'm not saying we keep them all but Marvin's 7.5 million and JJ's 18 million next year (combined) make up 47% of our current cap and 37% of the current luxury tax. That makes it very hard to get better or trade for someone. Trading 2 contracts for one would only magnify the cap problem. Best I can figure, we're about 4 million short of retaining Jamal as things stand (figuring Jamal gets 7.5-8 million next year from someone).

IMHO, the best answer is to use the 2013 first, Marvin/Zaza for Bogut and filler or Crawford, Marvin, Zaza for . But I can't see Milwaukee going for it. Best possible for Milwaukee I could come up with is something like this

http://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/5865623

they get younger, better but lose a franchise big man. We are swapping maggette from marvin in this deal and Zaza/craw for bogut...other is just filler. Now this could work but Milwaukee would want a pick and it would have to be 2013's now.

FYI, I'm not saying this is going to happen, I'm just pointing out how tricky JJ/Marvin's contracts are making things now.

From a shooting standpoint Marvin has been struggling more than usual thelast few games. From those who have seen the games, what's the deal? It seems he is shooting more but making less. Rather than the usual 2 for 5 it's been more like 1 for 7. Glad to see him being more aggressive but would have expected a higher percentage. Is some of it due to playing more with Jamal (if that's the case) or is it something else? Thanks.

the last 4 games he's shooting 37.5 % on 10 shots a game. His season average is 10.1 shots a game shooting 46%....so he's not shooting more. On a statistical basis, he's missing .75 more shots a game.

So if .1 shots less is more and .75 shots less made is struggling, then the answer to your question is yes.

I'm looking at the numbers. I must be missing something. All of Hinrichs numbers are superior except 3 point shooting percentage, which is damn good. How is he not an upgrade? I even feel a little better knowing he gets a steal a game and hits 9 out of ten from the stripe and seems to be coachable. I'm looking forward to seeing how he meshes. I hope he's smart and outspoken enough to kill this outside shooting from Josh and put him in positions to receive the ball near the rim and not taking the open outside shot which is EXACTLY WHAT THE OTHER TEAM WANTS!!!!!

Everything you need to know about Kirk Hinrich you can get from looking at Ben Gordon.

Ben Gordon in Chicago shot 45.5, 43.4, 45.5 his last 3 years playing with Kirk and averaged 21.4, 18.6, 20.7 ppg. He went to detroit the next year and has dropped to 13.8 and 12.7 points per game the last 2 years and shot 41.6 and 44.3 % in 6-7 less minutes a game. His assist numbers have dropped from 3.6, 3.0 and 3.4 to 2.2 this year as have his FT attempts and other vital stats. His 3 point % dropped dramatically (due to having to create his own 3 point shot).

Kirk makes those around him better.

I still can't see a real positive. This is a lateral move with the potential to be downhill or backwards.

One more thought on this. A first round...22-25 pick next year would cost about 1.5 - 2 million against the cap. A vet minimum 5 year player about 1 million. This deal (although only slightly) increases the chances of bringing back Jamal. Being forced to take a draft pick (and the lower we would have fallen, the higher the pick), could cause negative cap karma in future years. The higher the first round pick, the higher the cap hit.

AH might be the better one to speak on this but I believe the breakout was pick 27 where you start to see a cap benefit to take a vet minimum player over a rookie for Luxury Tax threshold teams.

Last year, Jordon Crawford at 27 was slotted at just over 1 million. The number 22 pick 1.254 million.

By contrast, Delonte West is making 500K