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thecampster

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Posts posted by thecampster

  1. OK pal - JJ has no history of settling down. If anything he stays in shape and plows throught the minutes with the old fool (Woody) in charge. How many Championships do you think there are to go around Cong? Two or three each year?

    Lotsa teams playing pal - and most don't get close - I'll take 50+ wins and a chance anyday. snowballfight.gif

    And I contend that JJ is not responsible for the 50+ wins. The first year we had JJ we added Marvin and Zaza and still only won 26 games. Most people here forget that. Most people here forget that joe is the least efficient player with his shots of our top 4 scorers because he can not consistently get to the free throw line. Most people here forget how he dissed the fans, that the players in the locker room don't like him because he's a loner and most don't remember the ball pounding till there's 5 seconds on the clock and then pass it to Smith at the 3 point line.

    Joe is not worth anything close to the max. When you pay Joe that kind of money, you are telling every other player on the team if they equal Joe's stats, they're worth the same. Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jamal Crawford are are arguably just as important to the teams success. Paying Joe the max will lose you one of those 3 players in the next two years.

  2. The article says,

    The Atlanta Hawks were set to officially extend a six-year, approximately $120 million offer to retain free agent Joe Johnson at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, a person with knowledge of the offer told CBSSports.com.

    Such an offer would constitute the maximum-salary contract that the Hawks can pay Johnson.

    Translation: We heard from a guy that they could do it. It's not official per this article.

  3. Ever heard of a trade? Draft maybe? It's inconceivable to overreact and pretend that the squad we have now will be exactly the same next year yet alone 3-4 years from now. Too many fluid factors to just start claiming gloom and doom.

    But because you are over the cap, you can only get value for value when trading. So I stand by the statement that giving a non max type player 33-40% of your available cap is lunacy.

  4. Giving someone the max is easy when it isn't your money or worse yet it's monopoly money to most of the posters here. Here is what Giving JJ the max means. Please God let every Squawker read this in it's context.

    If we give JJ the max, the last 3 years of the deal will be 20, 22, 24 million approximately. That means that one player will control 33-40% of the cap all by himself. That is lunacy. That is no way to build a team unless that player is named Kobe, Lebron, Dwayne, Dwight or a few players in their prime. Giving Joe the max is a 10 million dollar raise 6 years from now. That's not free money, it's money that is being taken away from signing other players. You can go over the cap year one to sign your own players, but after that, subsequent signs have to fit cap rules.

    If you sign JJ tonight ASG, you are telling every Hawks fan, this is it. This is what you get for the next 6 years. Hawks under contract in 3 years (assuming Horford signs for similar money to Josh Smith) in 2012/2013.

    JJ - 19 million

    Josh - 13.2 million

    Horford - 13 million

    Marvin - 8.3 million

    Zaza - 5.2 million

    Teague - 2.4 million

    Jordan Crawford - 1.2 million

    62.3 million total - 5 million over the current cap.

    That's your team guys. You sign JJ for the max and you are looking at Teague, JJ, Josh, Marvin and Horfod and absolutely no bench in 3 years. You are over the cap with 5 slots to fill. for everyone saying pay JJ the max, you are not thinking this through. This will handcuff us for years to come.

  5. By this rationale we should rule out trades altogether, since none of our players are tradeable.

    To me the Chris Paul/Okafor trade for Crawford and some combination of our players makes reasonable sense. At least enought to talk about. New Orleans clears money off the books and gets to pick which of our players they want. It's certainly not in the "crazy" "outlandish" category. If this kind of proposal makes you pull your hair out, you won't last long on this site. I defy you to find a fan message board site that doesn't discuss things like this.

    In the vacuum of New Orleans and Atlanta being the only teams in the league, yes this trade could get done. Now let's consider the other 28 teams out there. Can those teams put together a package that better fits New Orleans needs than Craw and Smoove. I would think there are 10 other teams out there hurting at the point and center position enough to give up their own grandmother to get these 2. Mark Cuban would resell his soul and future unprotected draft picks to the devil to acquire Chris Paul and a defensive center. Josh and Crawford would not get it done when you consider the market. Josh is my favorite Hawk, but I'm smart enough to know that Josh < CP3. Crawford can score but scorers are in much greater supply than shot blockers. Okafor is 28 and puts up comparable stats to Al Horford. He averages a double double and blocks 1.8 shots a game. In the world of the NBA that's greater than a 30 year old undersized less than stellar defensively shooting guard no matter how good at scoring that guard is.

    Here's the bad news. This trade is much better than some of the lunacy on this board of late. As far as your "you won't last long on this site comment". I've been around for 8 years.

  6. Let's just take a look at the ridiculous trades you guys are proposing, one Hawks player at a time.

    Trade Josh Smith - The Atlanta Hawks were 10th in points given up last year. Josh Smith and Al Horford were the only players that had had a minus for the team when they were out of the game. That's right, when Smith and Horford were in the game, we had the best +/- and when they were out we had our worst. So you want to trade away one of the two best glues to our defense. We'd be bottom 5 in the league in defense without either. Basketball is much more than just can you score.

    Trade Marvin Williams - Williams only makes 7.5 million. That means you are only going to take back a player that makes similar money. Who are you going to get for Marvin money? Any trade involving Marvin Willaims when the team pushed him to 5th option on offense status would net you nothing. If you really want to trade Marvin than you need to invest in boosting his number by giving him touches, running plays for him. You have to get value and at his salary you will never get value back.

    Trade Mike Bibby - To who. Bibby makes a very reasonable 5.5 million but again, who wants him that can give us back a quality player at 5 million per.

    Zaza - Probably our 2nd most marketable piece because he's a fiesty, solid big at a cheap price and is still relatively young. If you want to get rid of Bibby or Marvin, you have to trade Zaza to bump up the salaries to get back a good enough player in return.

    Childress - Childress has to agree. He's got free agent rights He isn't going anywhere he doesn't want to.

    Mo Evans - 2.5 million expiring. There it is guys. There is your most marketable trade piece.

    Stop it with all the trade people away for stars threads. You can't get value based on our past iso Joe offense and switching defense.

    • Like 1
  7. For the last time. The Hawks will not offer JJ the max or the deal would be done. there would be no reason to do the free agency thing. We offered 4 years 60 million last year. Why would we lowball by 59 million dollars if we were going to shell out the max contract in the end. There is no reason to play this game. JJ is gone, deal with it.

  8. I think Joe goes to New York or Chicago otherwise. But if we can trade Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, and picks for Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor. We become the best team in the league. Two potential elite players, CP3(is elite) and Al Horford(can be) with a star in Joe Johnson is better than any team in the NBA.

    Chris Paul/Teague/Bibby

    Joe Johnson/Jordan Crawford

    Marvin Williams/filler

    Al Horford/filler or Zaza

    Emeka Okafor/JaVale McGee(if the SnT with Washington goes through)/Zaza

    This is championship team in my opinion and one that can win it all multiple times. Of course I wonder if CP3 is truly on the market but I really think he is and New Orleans are willing to do this to get Crawford expiring and Smith smaller contract with All Star abilities since CP3 is likely on his way out in 2012. I know I made a topic like this before but I really think we need to be in talks with New Orleans. This might have been the trades which Sund was referring to at All Star break about major deals in the off-season that he was talking about with other teams. If this is the case, Sund drafted Jordan Crawford who is a scoring machine, A+ move at 27. Trading the 31st for 3 million dollars which will help resign Joe which would be golden. Traded for Chris Paul and Okafor which are needed pieces on this roster as well a bonafide superstar in Paul. Can I say Executive of the Year.

    You would not see that kind of trade without Mike Bibby being involved. Bibby has to go in any scenario that would make this team move Josh Smith. Like it or not, Josh Smith sells tickets. Owners don't trade players that sell tickets without dumping salary in the process. Additionally, there is a whole lot of offense to replace when you drop crawford and Smith from the roster. Chris Paul alone does not make that up. That starting lineup can not reliably shoot the 3 because only Horford would command a double team inside. Other than Paul, teams would play man zone and stop almost all penetration.

  9. FWIW, players with cap holds reduce this number.

    You know what, that just stands to explain how confusing this is. I completely forgot that when figuring it. And Hawksfanatic is right, we really wouldn't have that money which was the point of me saying "IF". JJ would have to walk and we'd have to sign Chillz on the cheap to even have cap space at all which at that low amount is really none.

    I just get frustrated when I keep reading what we should have done or should do. There is no room to do it and more importantly, the crowd screaming "sign JJ or else" doesn't realize the situation that puts the team in. They already have reasonable contracts on a few players and a few more are either coming off the book or are very tradeable in the next 2 seasons. But if you pay JJ 17 million a season, added to the money you will be giving Horford and adding in Josh Smith and Marvin's salary....none of those 3 are going anywhere....then you are saying this is our team for 4 years. Marvin, Josh, Al will be making a combined 33-35 million within 2 years. Add 17 million for JJ and there is no room for anyone else. Signing JJ to a max contract will handcuff the franchise for 3-5 years.

    Marvin isn't going anywhere is a big part of that. Love him or hate him, he makes a reasonable salary if producing, but not if he's not. If Marvin produces we hold on to him, if he doesn't, no one will want him. Josh Smith is not a tradeable commodity. He's too valuable when you consider his salary. You will never get equal value back for him. Players that produce what he does, don't make 10.8 a year, they are near max players. We all know Horford is a must keep player. So these 3 players are your franchise right now. They will hold 30+ million in Salary by the 2012 season...if you give Joe the max, you won't be able to sign/bring in another star level player without hitting the luxury tax. You are settling for above average but not great play.

  10. Ton of talking about what we can do in a few days. I'm hoping to clear that up right now.

    Salary Cap - 57.7 million

    Josh Smith - 11.6 million

    J Crawford - 10.08 million

    M Williams - 6.7 million

    Mike Bibby - 5.56 million

    Z Pachulia - 4.25 million

    A Horford - 5.45 million

    M Evans - 2.5 million

    Total - 47.63 million. Space remaining 10.07 million

    Cap holds

    JJ - 14.976 million

    Childress - 10.89 million

    Jordan Crawford - .85 million

    empty roster spots 5 - 5x$473k = 2.36 million

    Assuming the rookie signs and plays (why wouldn't he?) and assuming Chillz resigns at about 5 million (his worth) which would clear his cap hold. Assuming Joe walks for nothing (clearing his cap hold once he signs elsewhere).

    that would put us at 47.63 + .85 + 5 + (3x473k) = 54.899 million. Leaving us 2.8 million to sign free agents. For each player signed, a 473k credit goes back toward the cap.

    If Chillz isn't signed or signed and traded, his cap hold eats up the rest of the cap.

    Regardless of what happens, We need to offer an extension to Al next year or the year after and therefore can not handcuff ourselves with salary.

    Now this is where it gets tricky. Assuming we resign Joe, it's going to be for 16.5 million the first year. This would undoubtedly push the Hawks with their other roster adds into the luxury tax.

    Before last season started, Joe was offered 4 years, 60 million dollars. His max value is 6 years 119. The teams are starting 59 million apart when negotiating. This is not a small number. Joe is leaving, get used to it. You can not bridge a 59 million dollar gap when other teams are willing to offer him the max. The only answer here is to sign and trade him to get cap value back but we don't want more than 10 million in cap value back because we need to avoid the luxury tax threshhold.

    So looking at it from a business standpoint, your 3 highest paid players right now are JS, MW, JC. The simple fact is that Jamal is getting paid starter money and needs to start. Bibby as your 4th highest paid starter is not producing and needs to be traded. Marvin Williams needs to step up and put up starter numbers. 10 million comes off the books next year with Jamal and Evans being FA, Bibby can be traded as an expiring contract. Quit trying to trade Marvin as his production is not worth the future cap hit to most contending teams. Only a rebuilder could afford to take him on.

  11. I 100% agree, so what direction the Hawks should take. I like the line up I listed, are these trades and pickups legimate or wishful thinking?

    Childress to Washington would have been realistic except Blatchey opted for surgery....McGee is much more needed now.

    Salmon is going to sign as a leftover prize for someone who loses out on the elite players in FA at 6-8 million. We can't afford him without Cap gymnastics.

    Sorry but this doesn't work. I'll be posting a new thread here soon talking about the cap. Check for that.

  12. Saw a report where Al said JJ woulod return to Atl. Is that just the party line? or does he know somehting?

    I've been trying not to start a new thread on this but anyone expecting JJ back in the ATL next year is fooling themself.

    We offered JJ 60 million over 4 years. That is 59 million dollars less than he can get in a 6 year deal in a sign and trade right now. Should that sign and trade be to a state without state taxes, that is an additional savings of about 7.5 million. It is in Johnson's best interest to leave Atlanta. The ownership group is not going to pay him 119 million for 6 years. Another team will. In the world of negotiating, we are $59 million apart to start with. The only reason to move on JJ's part is giving a hometown discount. He already burned that bridge with the fans. JJ is gone. Best to start deciding how to get the most out of him being gone.

    • Like 1
  13. What you want is Josh to share time between the 3 and the 4. You do not want him to be a 3 full time, but as the 3 he presents matchup problems for opposing 3's. He is just too strong for them to stop while moving toward the basket. He will draw fouls and force the opposing teams bigs to step out and stop his drives, cuts, posts.

    This is why Lebron is so successful. He is a handful for all opposing 3's.

  14. You sign the other 2 free agents first, then Heat are allowed to D-wade over the cap since its their own player. That is the basis of it, but its actually more complicated official way of explaining it.

    NO that is not correct.

    29. Can a team sign all the free agents it wants (up to the cap limit) and THEN re-sign its own free agents using the Bird exception?

    Yes, but there's a restriction. A team's free agents continue to count as team salary (against the salary cap). This charge is called the "free agent amount." So there may not be enough money under the cap to sign another team's free agent, because the team's own free agents are taking up all their cap room.

    ( Source: http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q29 )

    So in the case of wade his option year salary of 17million counts against the cap until he signs with another team and his current team.

    I know that is not allowed. I'm trying to figure out if I'm calculating the salaries wrong.

  15. So I did the math. They have 4 players under contract right now.

    DWade (player opt out) - $17,149,243

    Michael Beasley - $4,962,240

    James Jones - $4,640,000

    Mario Chalmers - $847,000

    That's 10.4 million without Wade, 27.5 million with him. Cap is 57.7 million. Since they only have 4 players signed there is an 8 player penalty pf 473,604x8 for $3.788,832. So even with Wade signed, the actual free space for Miami as far as I can tell is about 26.4 million (granted 2 players signed refunds 2x473,604 to that so closer to 27.3 million available).

    Am I missing something? That doesn't seem like enough to sign both Lebron and Joe or any other 2 free agents. One would get 17 million per and the other about 10. Then the roster gets filled with vet minimum vets and their 4 draft picks. Those draft picks are all second round and would cost against the cap since they are drafted (owned by the team) no matter what order they are signed. Someone who knows for sure please help with this math.

  16. Lee is not a restricted free agent.

    That is correct. Sorry.

    On another note, I also mistated the Knicks cap situation. since they now have only 6 committed contracts, there is a 6 player rookie minimum cap hold in effect. It's a little less than 3 million. So technically speaking their current cap situation is 21.7 million, not 18.7 million. With each player signed, they get a reduction of the cap hold by 1 mimimum rookie contract. What that means is if they sign Amare first at 18 mil first year like they would be capable of doing, That would be a cap of 39.2 charge leaving them 18.5 million to sign. If they signed JJ for 16.5 first year that leaves them 2 million to sign new players. However if they signed Lee for 10 million first year, that still counts against the cap and would only leave them about 7 million for JJ.

    Same song, different verse, because the players are signed in the same year and Lee's contract alone doesn't put them over the cap, it counts like any other player signing. They don't have enough money to sign all 3.

  17. The Knicks with a core of Joe Johnson, Amare, Danilo Gallinari, Tony Douglass, Wilson Chandler and David Lee would be pretty decent imo.

    I went over this in another thread. The Knicks will not be able to afford all 3 (Amare, JJ, David Lee). They will be about 5 million short.

  18. Not going to quote the wall of text, but thanks for that. Clears up a bit. +1

    FYI, no problem. The numbers may be off a bit. Couldn't find an exact on the maximum salary for this year for a 9 year player so added 250 thousand to last years and pretended.

    That article is pretty insane by the way. Over 100 questions to clear up the salary cap.

  19. Why would this involve anything, JJ is a free agent.

    Because free agent is a relative term when discussing the NBA salary rules structure and bird rights. JJ may not technically belong to the Hawks but JJ's earning potential is directly tied to the Hawks. No player leaves money on the table and playing nice with a sign and trade will get JJ a 6th year and a little more per year.

    Think Speedy Claxton. When Speedy signed his last deal, do you really think he thought he'd be out of the league in a few short years? No he did not. Nothing is guaranteed in the league of blown out knees. You have to get as much money as you can each contract. MrHonline did a write up about 7 weeks ago on the amount of money JJ loses if he goes 5 years as opposed to 6 and it was huge...like 30 million. The basics of it are covered in this link, question 80.

    http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm

    80. Why would teams or players want to do a sign-and-trade?

    Teams benefit because it allows them to get something in return for players they would otherwise lose to free agency. Players benefit because they can get a richer contract, and/or play for a team that is over the salary cap and otherwise wouldn't be able to afford them. Unlike the new team, the player's original team can use the various Bird exceptions (as long as the player qualifies) to sign the player without regard to the cap. Also, if the player's original team has full Bird rights, they can offer the player larger raises (10.5%, as opposed to 8%) and more seasons (six, as opposed to five -- see question number 46 for more information).

    So sign-and-trade is a useful tool for teams that are capped-out and unable to offer players large contracts.

    Question number 46 is as follows:

    46. Is there a limit to the length of a contract or the raise a player can receive?

    Yes, but it depends on the type of contract:

    Type of contract Maximum years Maximum raise Notes

    Larry Bird exception 6 10.5% See question number 19

    Early Bird exception 5 10.5% See question number 19

    First round draft pick 2 plus 2 option years Defined in salary scale See question number 41

    Certain restricted free agents 5 Can have a substantial raise in year 3 See question number 37

    Extensions 6 (including remaining seasons of current contract) 10.5% of the salary in the last season of the contract being extended. See question number 51

    Other 5 8% Some exceptions have a shorter maximum length. See question number 19

    Incidentally, raises take effect July 1 of each year.

    So using fuzzy math.

    The knicks offer JJ the max for 5 years. The first year salary would be about 16.5 million. 2nd - $17,820,000, 3rd - $19,245,600, 4th - $20,785,248 and 5th - $22,448,067. Ffor a grand total of $96,798,915 for a total contract.

    The Hawks sign JJ and trade him to the Knicks for a 6 year deal. First year 16.5 million. 2nd $18232500, 3rd - $20,146,912, 4th - $22,262,338, 5th - 24,599,884, 6th - $27,182,871. For a grand total of $128,924,505 or $32.1 million more.

    That sir is why JJ would want the Hawks to work out a sign and trade because you can bet your left butt cheek that the ASG is not paying that joker $129 million dollars over 6 years to choke in the post season. And by the way, for all you guys screaming we need to resign JJ, that will most probably be the cost. Do you really want to resign the choke artist at a cost of $129 million over 6 years?

    • Like 1
  20. I fixed my post and you are right. They only have 30 mill or so and can only sign one max player

    no, totally cool. I'm by no means an expert on any of this but from everything I've heard, double SNT's could be used repeatedly this offseason. There are too many names and double snt is too helpful in cap manipulation right not to not be used. These players want that last year to get the bigger up front and the longer security going into labor troubles. It's a big deal. Plus most of the sites putting up cap numbers are not accurate as they are not listing rookie and RFA cap holds (like our cap hold for Chillz and the new rookie).

  21. It would take a dbl SNT to get Lee here. Those things do not happen. 1st off both players have to agree to the other teams offer, seconly both teams have to agree to the offer, and 3rd but not last or least, other teams are making both players really good offers. The odds are slim and none...leaning towards none very heavily.

    Lee will stay in NY. they could have offered him a minimum qualifier but worked out a better one year deal to keep him and his agent happy. NY wants him and they can and will match all offers once they sign two max players. Just like Wade will stay in Miami once they sign one max player.

    OH no they can't. The cap for this season is set at 57.7 million. They have currently under contract $18,637, 293 (source: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm) That leaves them $39 million. Lee's contract has to come off the books first. Even if he signs 3rd, since they are under the cap, they must count Lee's salary under the cap and the new player salaries will have to fit under the cap. Assuming both JJ and Amare signed for 17 million each, that's $34 million. That would only leave them $5 million for Lee. Per NBA rules, you can go over the cap to sign your own player. But for accounting purposes, that players contract is counted before the signing of othe team's free agents.

    Option 1: Lee signs a 1 year deal non qualifying offer. Highly unlikely, with the addition of 2 big name players, Lee's production will go down and negatively affect his value.

    Option 2: Lee signs a multiyear extension for 9 million per season starting. If he does this, the accounting brings the team salary to 27.7 million, leaving 30 million to sign free agents. This leaves the Knicks with only 30 million to sign 2 big name free agents or about 15 million a piece and at only 5 years. Highly unlikely they get 2 players and this leaves them no one on the roster as only vet minimums can be signed after that.

    Option 3: Lee signs a multiyear extension as above but to get the 2 players mentioned signed, the Knicks have to find a taker for Eddy Curry's one year salary of 11.3 million meaning they have to fork up probably 2 lottery protected firsts.

    Option 4: The Knicks find a way to dump Curry on another team packaging their other talent and or double sign and trading their FA's.

    Option 5: David Lee gets a 10 million dollar per year, 5 year offer to play alongside Lebron/Wade in Miami where there are no state income taxes. New York decides not to match to give themselves cap flexibility next year.

    Option 6: The Knicks sign and trade David Lee to one of the teams they are stealing a free agent from, sign and trade Duhon to one of the teams they are stealing the other free agent from and add incentives for one of the other team to take Curry off their hands so they have enough money to sign Bosh to play along side Amare and JJ. If I were the Knicks and I could make this happen, this is where I'd be working towards.

    Remember that a big expiring contract like Curry's will be important in the possible Carmelo sweepstakes next year.

  22. I hate free agency just because I have to read things like this. I want you to go and find me all the dbl SNTs you can over the last five years. None is what you will find and none is what will happen again next season.

    Lee BTW is not going anywhere. NY has his birds rights and he will be in their lineup right beside Amare if that is how Amare plays it.

    and you can not honestly believe Lee is staying, can you? You can not sign your own player retro to other signings and get the credits under the cap.

    If they sign Amare and Johnson first, then sign Lee...Lee can only be signed for the difference between the cap and their new salaries. Your own players take precedence....it does not matter what order they sign in. If Lee is offered 10 million by another squad (very likely) and NY matches...it counts against the cap pre signing of JJ and Amare thereby limiting what you can offer those 2 players. They have to deal with Lee first if that's the case. Lee will command as much as 60% a max deal in this market and they wont' be able to bring him and others back at that price. The Knicks are hamstrung by Eddy Curry's contract.

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