thecampster

I both hate and love media day.  I'd prefer we had practice/games to watch but I love the new season photos of the players, the speculation, the hope.

8 hours ago, Vol4ever said:

There us a rumor floating around about Capela and JJ to Dallas for Tim Hardaway, Lively and a 2027 1st rd protected pick.  

Hawks would be stupid to make that trade imo. 

yahhhhhh NO!  No that's not a real rumor. Dallas already got a big because their deal with Capela was a no go. They aren't doing that now.

Hawks are active right now but this is probably what we go to camp with.

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

So bucks get Dame for Jrue and some far off picks.  Meanwhile folks think we're trading all our young guns for Siakam.  

It also cost them Grayson Allen which is not nothing.

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

What’s my name?  

 

@kg01 @JayBirdHawk @macdaddy @AHF @thecampster yeaaaa why not campy gettin this too!

-Outsiders!!!!

Called it!!! BAM

 

1) I usually don't talk about the rest of the league, only the Hawks.

2) 

Quote: "

As a reminder, we are to 9/16 which was the day we were looking for for things to heat up again.  Then the above article pops confirming the things we were talking about back in June/July.

With FIBA now over and teams assured of knowing the injury situation of players going into camp, we'll see some rumors heat up now and a few deals in the league will get done going into camp. " End Quote

Boom! How do you like me now son?

1 week to training camp....tic...tic...tic

Longest offseason ever!!!

37 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in Utah for a variety of reasons.  As noted above, JC was strong when Trae wasn't there during JC's rookie season.  I think Trae absolutely enhanced JC's rim running opportunities but JC was also quite good at that regardless.  During JC's best scoring season, he had some of his biggest games when Trae wasn't there like:

34 point outing against Chicago

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201912280CHI.html

33 point outing against LAC

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202001220ATL.html

30 point outing against BOS

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202002070BOS.html

26 point outing against the Wizards

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202003060WAS.html

Now we don't have a huge sample size of games without Trae because Trae has been fantastically durable.  And that is a great thing about Trae.  But I've seen enough that I'm not convinced that JC couldn't be efficient without Trae if he was the primary rim runner on another team.  (Especially given that dropoff that season between Trae and his backup was much bigger than it would be between Trae and another team's starting PG.  That season broken down Teague played 25 games; Evan Fing Turner played 19 games; and Brandon Goodwin played 34 games as the primary backups for Trae.  Puke.)

I have big questions about what JC's role and shot selection will look like for Utah as well as his minutes in that frontcourt so I am also not expecting him to blow up or anything but I'm very interested to see.

JC is neither Batman, nor Robin. He's Alfred. He's gentlemanly and at his best when all the attention is on those 2.

My problem with JC is how much standing around he did. Some of it was by design but in the last couple of years he would check out early if it was becoming the Trae Young show in a game.  He was rarely engaged defensively like he was season 2/3. He was very bad at giving help when help is what our guards needed. I think with JC, you can lessen the expectations for him in Utah. What he gave the Hawks last year was still top 20 for a PF (barely). If Utah gets that, and he's splitting time at center, they become very good and have a very big lineup.  If he ends up coming off the bench, that's going to be a bad look.

Comparison's

JJ's shot chart last 3 years.

Clint's shot chart last 3 years

Bey shot chart last 3 years

DH shot chart last 3 years

JC shot chart his rookie year

Shot chart last season -  notice all the 3's.

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I don't think it is a pure function of volume.  For example, I'll give you a couple of young power forwards with very similar minutes per game and shots per minute.

JC as a rookie took 11.0 FGA/36 in 24 mpg. 

Siakam in his second year took 10.7 FGA/36 in 20 mpg.  

Josh Smith as a rookie took 10.6 FGA/36 in 27 mpg.

Patrick Williams in his third year took 10.5 FGA/36 in 28 mpg.

 

That is pretty similar volume on a per minute basis and similar overall minutes.  But their TS%s are very different.

JC .620% TS%

Siakam .549% TS%

Josh .506% TS%

PW .576% TS%

Why is JC so much better?  Because JC is a better shooter on those attempts.  Even with very similar volumes, the results are very different.  You can then move on to ask why he shoots so much better on similar volumes but you can't pin it on volume.

 

Now you can make a better case for the volume thing when Siakam becomes the first option in his fourth season and goes up to 19 FGA/36 if you are comparing to JC's when JC's shots dropped after CC arrived but it doesn't really apply while all these guys are taking 10-11 FGA/36.  In that context, it is, imo, a mix of shot selection and shooting accuracy but it isn't volume at all.  JC has traditionally done a good job of not taking bad shots (see Smith, Josh).  He has done a good job shooting accurately.  Those things are not necessarily tied to volume since we see people struggle with both of those at similar volumes to JC's FGA/minute.

The fact that he isn't asked to scale up on volume and push himself into taking more "bad" shots definitely helps his efficiency but I think his efficiency goes beyond that and we saw that in his second year when he pushed his FGA/36 up to 16.4 from his rookie 11.0 and actually improved his scoring efficiency to .627% TS%.  Bear in mind that this 16.4 FGA/36 shot rate is very comparable to Siakam's 2021-22 season where he ended up at 16.9 FGA/36 with a .565% TS%.  The difference is not volume but is a function of role, shot selection, and shot accuracy.  (Example:  John Collins has a better career FT% than Siakam, Josh, and Patrick and obviously that isn't much about anything other than shot accuracy.)

Anyway, I'm just giving my $.02 for why I think JC's TS% would have been significantly better in Atlanta in a higher volume role where CC was replaced by Brook Lopez or someone similar where JC could have done more of a continuation of his back to back 20 PPG seasons and making the case that JC is legit efficient as a scorer even if he is limited in his inability to assume a first scoring option role.

As a rookie a large portion of his shot attempts were dunks.  He was a primary in the pick n roll game.  Clint took that role limiting his shot availability.  But JC's TS% was a direct result of many dunk/layup opportunities.

1 hour ago, AHF said:

Curious if Siakam is on there.  I have trouble focusing on a lot of the faces here.

Siakam - Red Arrow but that doesn't surprise me.  He isn't in the post a ton and he isn't setting screens much. 

I'm assuming this chart is about stretch4/5 diversity.  Can you step out to help set screens, move, pop and still defend the post.  As you can see, neither player does much of that.  This is all about spacing and making the defense move their feet.  Both Siakam and JC are seen as hustle guys with Siakam being much better at guarding on the perimeter and getting in passing lanes + handling the ball on his way to the basket.

On 8/17/2023 at 10:38 PM, djjob23 said:

Impressive! It’s amazing to see this graph AND watch his offensive transformation this summer. If he puts all this together, he’s gonna be an absolute BEAST!!! 

 

Anyone notice where JC was on this chart???   Why $25 million wasn't a great value.

A bit of "receipts" for you.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10089580-nba-trade-rumors-hawks-discussed-deandre-hunter-with-pistons-pacers-this-summer

As a reminder, we are to 9/16 which was the day we were looking for for things to heat up again.  Then the above article pops confirming the things we were talking about back in June/July.

With FIBA now over and teams assured of knowing the injury situation of players going into camp, we'll see some rumors heat up now and a few deals in the league will get done going into camp. 

1 hour ago, AHF said:

This article kind of confuses me.  It is explicitly premised on the assumption that we don't make another deal (i.e., this is an article about what we should do if we don't make a trade).  And then it goes on to say we need to "take a risk" by giving JJ and Bey a chance to succeed at PF.  Is there a reaction to this other than "duh"?  Like who else would we be looking at to play the minutes at PF other than Bey and JJ?  I guess in theory you could say Hunter should get some minutes there or that OO should get some minutes there but this is beyond obvious that moving JC means more minutes for both JJ and Bey at PF and significantly more time there between the two of them.

It's a momentum article. Makes the fanbase familiar with the eventual starter.

https://soaringdownsouth.com/2023/09/12/hawks-snyder-urged-risk-johnson-bey/

Incoming Huerter criticism. Nobody say the world is ending.

I'm noticing a pattern the types of players we are retaining and letting go. Everyone allowed to walk had a habit of disappearing. Except for the game 7, Huerter has a reputation for disappearing in games and down the stretch.  That's been Collins for almost 3 years. Bey - motor, Murray - motor, Trey - mighty mouse motor, OO, motor. 

I'm not going to pass judgement as quickly as Sturt. I'm seeing a culture being developed or at least, I'm hoping that's what I'm seeing. I'm willing to let it play out this year to see if effort, "team" and unified focus wins out.

On 9/6/2023 at 5:18 PM, Spud2nique said:

I like the bet, I’m a bit concerned that we might leave him in the G league the whole year. I mean, 200 minutes isn’t a ton but if he’s not even in the building then it kinda blows for me. Personally I think he should get some burn seeing that we didn’t really add too many pieces this summer. I mean, we have a need for him and 2.4 minutes on average would take him to 200 min in an 82 game season. He’s bound to get about 0-4 minutes depending on blowouts, injuries etc. 

 

Dang, I like it, my only hesitation is if he will be even given an opportunity THIS year. Based on his play, he should find court time…

Let me think on this one… since you already have a month control of my shiny new JJ avatar .

Barring injuries to the rotation, G league is the best place for him. He's not going to get many minutes behind JJ/Hunter/Bey.

Hawks depth chart per ESPN - 

Per yahoo sports

Both sites have Gueye as 4th on the depth chart at both positions.

Not saying they're right but just saying he's got to climb over 3 bodies to get playing time.  That only happens in blowouts.

Lets also remember that players in the NBA are bigger in aggregate than players in Summer League. He's really skinny compared to other NBA players. He's got to gain at least 20 lbs to not break in half out there.  

Gueye 6'11, 210.

JJ 6'8, 220 (when last year started....he's bigger now).

Bey - 6'7" 215"

3 inches taller but 10 lbs lighter or 4 inches taller, 5 lbs lighter means he's going to get pushed around down low.

Spud -> You can't count a 20 game sample at a 36 mpg rate.

Also Spud -> This guy drafted in the 2nd round whose never played a minute in the NBA is > than a guy who was a steal middle of the 1st round 2 years ago....because I saw him be good in 24 mpg in Summer League.

Mohammed Gueye  9 ppg, 5 rpg on 43% shooting in 24 minutes in summer league.

Jalen 2 years ago SL.  19.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 57% shooting in 28 mpg.

Spud's decision, Gueye > Jalen....because eye test.

On 9/1/2023 at 3:53 PM, Spud2nique said:

JJ. I’ve ridden him all summer. Hope he comes out and balls.

Same with Dre, dude has the tools but missing that grind, that certain aggressiveness and everything else is squawkers want for him.

If these two exceed expectations and everyone else pretty much produces as expected, we are going far.

If I have a concern, its that I haven't seen a lot of videos of the guys working out together.  This is my current concern.

2 hours ago, sturt said:

camp, I could have written that. You know that, right?

And I probably would have even just a year ago.

But last year, they were still clearly attempting (to me) to add talent, not subtract it. It was still plausible to say they were prioritizing the on-court talent/performance over the off-court expense to the owner.

Not writing that any more. Done defending the decision-making, and God knows, I've defended the Ressler group, the Joneses, and the Lerners/Rizzo to the point of causing others regurgitation of their lunch in the past. I'm not the type to disparage wealthy people in general. I'm not the type to consider my opinion better grounded automatically over people who wealthy people have hired to run their sports operations.

But I'm not stupid. And I'm not sheep. Even best case scenario, to the contrary of what I (sarcastically) said above, there is nothing rational that would prevent JJ from getting the same or more minutes than JC.

Is it awkward to have someone making so much less to be playing so much in comparison to someone making so much more? Sure.

But. Which is worse?

To do that... or... to effectively cut JC (and, so, you're having to replace those minutes with a decidedly lesser talent)?

One is miles and miles worse, and it's unfortunately the one that happened.

And Occam's Razor demands that fans just admit if they haven't already that the waddler and quacker is a duck... this team's owner undeniably at this point is more content with remounting the hamster wheel over all-out pursuit of a championship.

They're going to be good enough to be competitive (I think)... and so, arguably--and from Ressler's POV, thankfully--in a good position to sell tickets and merch... but whatever they are, it's going to be less than they would have been on the other side of, effectively, exchanging JC for Patty Mills. If you're not going forward, you're going backward. Last off-season, Huerter was let go for literally nothing positive coming back in the trade. Nothing. This off-season, same story, but substitute Collins.

Steve Koonin, I get it. It's your job to sell the team. Literally, your job. You've always been pretty good at it, too. But/and, if you're reading this, the old saying goes "don't piss on me and tell me it's raining." Everything you're saying could play out, but it doesn't change the fact the roster is not  improved by subtraction. Even if this team goes on to great success, it will be an inferior success to what would have been with an asset of John Collins' quality. And if this team fails it will be a greater failure because you parted with Collins.

Urine, unlike rainwater, smells horrible. This smells horrible. And I'm sure as hell not swallowing it.

 

When you're asking yourself why you should get behind this? Just say this!

9 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

 

 

LOL, I just highlighted this in the Koonin thread.