thecampster

In this same thread, I argued the merit of drafting Trae against JJJ with @KB21. First, KB 95% nailed this draft with his evaluation and pretty much everyone on the board owes him an apology (not me, I was team KB). IMHO, I won this scrape but we both came out of it nudging toward the other's opinion and agreeing we wouldn't hate the other's pick. See Here: I was clear, 3 years before JJJ would have the impact KB was saying he'd have. Years 1-3, JJJ averaged 15 pts and 1.5 blocks. Year 4/5. More efficient 16.5 ppg but 2.3 and 3.0 blocks respectively. My point was Trae would be the starter and high impact from day 1. I felt there were some drawbacks to Luka (I still do) that are hard to overlook (pace, decision making). I can admit I was wrong on some of my assessment. Still happy we grabbed Trae and a pick. Hated how we wasted that pick. There is nothing wrong with a hot take. But there is something wrong with "this is my take, you're all dumb and nothing can change my opinion". The purpose of a hot take is to be willing to discuss and hear other opinions to measure yours against theirs. You have to go into it with integrity.

Unlike some, I don't just back up my hot takes with profanities. https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/mark_price_vs_john_stockton.htm @Sothron you know I love you but Price never made an all NBA defensive team. Stockton made 5. I don't get better defender. Even Mark Price doesn't get that argument. All team or leader categories. Price 5, Stockton 29. I need a better argument here than eye test. https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/al_horford_vs_dominique_wilkins.htm all team or leader categories 9-2 Wilkins. I'm going to need more here as well. Especially considering the following: 1) Wilkins didn't force his way out of town. 2) Even the Hawks never gave Al a max contract. 3) No team ever gave Al a max contract. Lastly, before you go off on how none of us know basketball like you do or see the game right or any of that nonsense, let me threaten you with receipts. Don't make me pull out the 2018 draft thread where you tried to convince everyone that Mo Bamba or Marvin Bagley was the player to choose. The player to choose over Jaren Jackson Jr., Trae Young and Luka Doncic. I keep receipts!

So much to go at here. Horford won't make the Hall of Fame....isn't a top 75 player all time. That puts him solidly behind Nique, not to mention Pistol Pete, not to mention a number of Hawks from the past. He's a career 13.4 ppg/ 8.1 rpg player. He broke 18 ppg once, 10 rebounds once in his career (12/13 season). He broke 5 apg once, never broke 2 blocks per game. he shot a career 51.3% from the field. He was a good player. He was never great, more or less best anything. He did some non-stat things well but he wasn't great, even in his best season. To show you want I mean, Josh Smith had a higher PPG average in his career, slightly less rebounds per game, but similar apg/more spg and more bpg. I loved Josh, I'd never call him "best Hawk ever". Joe Johnson was more impactful. There's a lot of players with better career stats. Al was good, not great and this nonsense needs to stop. Mark Price is a nice player. Career 15.2/6.7/1.2 player over 11 seasons. John Stockton though, career 13.1 points in 19 seasons. He averaged 10.5 assists per game in 8 additional seasons with 2.2 apg in that time. They aren't in the same category. If you take Stockton's best 11 seasons in comparison to Price, its like comparing a starter to his backup. If used right, if different coach is nonsense. Price played for 4 different teams in his career. His best season assist total was 10.4.....Stockton beat that with his career average. Stats don't favor your arguments. The eye test for most players, most coaches and fans don't back it up either. I can't argue with your worldview, that's yours. But nothing else backs it up except you and Horford's dad/sister.

I've said it before. We all argue with each other on player value, performance but the collective knowledge/wisdom on this board is light years ahead of the typical NBA fan board where no understanding of cap/LT implication exist. Typical board has 1, maybe 2 guys capable of giving some level of player evaluation, no one who truly understands the CBA and a whole slew who post while plastered. This isn't that board (last qualification excluded).

See what Minny gave up for Gobert. Fans look at the exception deals instead of the rule deals and don't understand every nuance like "LT situation, where in the process you are, expiring vs long term in trade, age of player, injury history, cycle of the moon, which Ouija card flipped over in the house in the portal, etc". NBA trades are not equal player value for equal player value. They are a complex mess of supply and demand and right now there is little demand for an expiring player making $38 million a year, in line for a max deal who won't commit to a long term deal at a reasonable salary.

Confirmed above, but: I don't see the Toronto deal getting done. The Raps are in a no win situation right now. They'd have to see it as addition by subtraction. Similar deal with Minny. Kat is great but fit there is a problem. They can't go back into it mixed as they are and yet, they can't just get screwed in a KAT deal from a PR perspective. Lastly, teams like Hunter, they don't love Hunter. They see his game flaws like everyone else. We can't expect Hunter to be what moves the needle for us.

I'll say something controversial here: If (and its a reasonably big if), JJ gets 30 minutes/game, he'll lead the Hawks in blocks and finish top 2 on the Hawks in steals.

If he starts at PF, his stats can't help but go way up. Basic logic. AJ still fighting for minutes with a crowded backcourt.

I expect his PPG to drop again. I expected his efficiency to go up. I expect his APG to go to as high as 12a/g

Like I said, sober me won out.

I'm in the minority on the site as it comes to OO. I like him, love his hustle but I see his weaknesses. You can't be that under tall and not shoot outside. He needs a consistent pick n pop game from at least 15 to make up for his height. The biggest knock on Clint is he clogs the lane on offense. OO is only a little better in this regard. I'd be interested to see how Trae and JC would have been with Brook Lopez (or similar). Trae has to deal with bigs way more often than he should because Clint doesn't draw anyone at the perimeter. Bruno...same story. If Bruno could develop a consistent 15-18 footer, he'd be interesting. 8 years ago Al Horford might have been the perfect center for Trae. Who is better, CC or OO is a hard question though. I like OO's effort and chaos more. His hustle plays. CC plays center like a vet. He conserves a lot of energy. I'm not sure OO could play like he does for 30 minutes a night. So I think CC is better but they are both flawed. CC can't spread the floor, doesn't play the body well. OO doesn't play super bigs close to the basket well, only spreads the floor a bit better.

I actually had an internal discussion about leaving Trae exposed, thinking an expansion team wouldn't want a $40 million salary. Sober me won out.

Not to mention Gasol was a load, Ibaka was a problem and Lowry was quite a few cheeseburgers thinner.

How's your dexterity. The secret handshake is no joke. It goes something like this.

Some more fun JC JJ DH AJ Trae (which fyi that 'hands' rating is ridiculous). But of the 1st 4, Jalen is the most trustworthy with the ball in his hands. Its a complicated metric I can't find the formula for but it balances usage and assists against different turnover types.

For fun: Collins Total groupings with JC: 8, 1309.3 minutes played, +76 Total groupings with JJ: 7, 390 total minutes, +102

Highlighted every 5 man unit in our top 20 with AJ or JJ in it (yellow). Also highlighted comparable win % with 2 of the 3 of Hunter/Collins/Capela in it that were under 50% win %. There were only 2 positive, 4 negative (under 50%). Look at line 15/16. The only difference is Griffin over Hunter and 40% more win%. Best grouping Young/BB/Bey/JJ/OO at 100%, 8th most used. that grouping went +66 in only 48 minutes. 2nd highest +/- to the 1st group with 726.9 minutes to get +82. Remember this is top 20 groups only, not all groupings played in. Total groupings with JJ: 7, 390 total minutes, +102 Total groupings with Griffin: 6, 333.9 total minutes, +61 Total groups all 3: 2, 83.8 minutes, +19

I thing to consider in this OO vs JJ vs AJ conversation is how well the 3 of them played together on the floor in the second unit. They mesh really well together.

The floated deal is CC, Hunter, 1st, Matthews. There was a grade the trade the other day showing this with Dallas as the 3rd team and Javale McGee also coming our way. I suspect that was publicly floated to gauged interest to all 3 fanbases. Found it: https://soaringdownsouth.com/2023/07/18/atlanta-hawks-grade-trade-pascal-siakam-3-team/

OMG this is too fun. JJ playing Point PF on his high school team on senior night.

Again, I can't separate it out by last 15 games. His numbers get some fudging due to garbage time early in the season. But he handles the ball much better than Dre....I'd never trust Dre to lead the break....you want the ball in Jalen's hands going down hill.

and just for poops and snickers

Now remember, the above takes the full season into account and is not isolating it down to the last 15 games where he was much better. Ya'll are sleeping hard on JJ. His value on the floor shows greater than Hunter in statistical matchups. Numbers rarely lie.

WTF...I was accepting what you were saying (not agreeing but accepting) until you said this. JJ is far better with the basketball in his hands than Dre. Its not even close. What the Frog man...WTF!!! https://3stepsbasket.com/player/deandre-hunter/vs/jalen-johnson?season=nba23

I may need a bigger receipt drawer.