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thecampster

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Posts posted by thecampster

  1. 2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    11 hours ago, AHF said:

    That is a crazy amount of picks.  If I’m Portland, I want most of them 4+ years in the future.

    Miami's incoming draft picks

    image.thumb.png.b2e122419598d28fef48997fc89389b0.png

     

    They've used 25 already which makes 24/26 not available for trade.  First they could trade is 27, them 29.  That's the max they have available to trade.

     

    https://www.sportsbusinessclassroom.com/how-teams-get-around-the-stepien-rule/#:~:text=Specifically%2C the Stepien Rule requires,teams from trading themselves bare.

    Shenanigans can be pulled in current draft years, not future.  That post should be treated as moronic and uninformed. They can't trade 4 future 1sts.

    "Specifically, the Stepien Rule requires teams to have at least one future first-rounder in every other draft.

    Named after Ted Stepien, formerly of the Cleveland Cavaliers, the rule is to protect teams from trading themselves bare."

    • Like 2

  2. 2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

    Just checked on the Canadian board.  Some of them want Siakam traded.  I found one poster's idea interesting:

    Atlanta sends them Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin, Kobe Bufkin and two first round draft picks for Siakam.

    :ahf:

    That doesn't even close to work salary wise.

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    2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted · Edited by thecampster

    51 minutes ago, TwolvesFan77 said:

    Is the KAT to Hawks steam dead insiders and outsiders?

     

    So you've heard Steve Koonin on local AM radio (Atlanta) talking about having deals in place that they thought were going to get done on draft night (which I reported on at the time) and recently as well (which we've all talked about). What I said before is what I said before but with a caveat.

     

    1) No deal is dead but they're at a wall.  There is more out there than KAT/Siakam for the Hawks but these were the 2 deals that were the most close and highest profile. Some deals come together in a day. Some get worked out over a week or two. A smaller percentage of the time deals go through stages where frameworks are created and both sides give a final best offer and they take a cooling off period while each team verifies if they want to take the other's best offer.  That is what's going on now.

    2) Remember there are other teams working out deals as well and sometimes this thing gets complicated. Teams get wind of a deal and they get in to either try and get better by being a third party or they jump in to try and steal the deal from one party or the other.  I believe this is what happened with the Siakam deal (actually I know). Because we'd inquired about Siakam  in the past, they approached us about interest in Siakam when they learned we had a stalled framework with Minny.  Trying to steal the opportunity from Minnesota.  By extension, Indiana jumped in to try to supplant Atlanta in the Toronto deal.

    3) Atlanta is not the only team with trade chips being added over the next two months. Any extensions that happed after July 15th last year and before the start of training camp also fit into this mold.  Its very possible the deal is waiting on a 3rd party's player to become available.  Below is a list of all players who signed veteran extensions with their team last season. I don't have the dates handy but you can research each player's eligibility to be traded date on fanspo or spotrac, I believe.

     

    What this means is during this cool-off, one of the teams could decide to take the other's best offer and make the deal.  They could also be waiting on a player to become available to take that version of the deal or 3 wait on a player to become available on a 3rd team.  No one is really going to get that detail, even as an insider (again, I don't like this term). Deals held up in contingencies are rarely leaked in full to avoid any possible tampering charges (see mess Philly almost got into over Harden).

    Veteran contract extensions:

    • Nikola Jokic (Nuggets😞 Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $272,020,000. Includes fifth-year player option and 15% trade kicker. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Devin Booker (Suns😞 Four years, maximum salary (story). Includes 10% trade kicker. Starts in 2024/25.
      • Note: Booker’s starting salary in 2024/25 will be 35% of the ’24/25 salary cap.
    • Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves😞 Four years, maximum salary (story). Includes fourth-year player option. Starts in 2024/25.
      • Note: Towns’ starting salary in 2024/25 will be 35% of the ’24/25 salary cap.
    • Andrew Wiggins (Warriors😞 Four years, $109,000,002 (story). Includes fourth-year player option. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers😞 Two years, maximum salary (story). Worth at least $106,552,285 and as much as $121,774,039, depending on ’25/26 salary cap figure. Starts in 2025/26.
    • LeBron James (Lakers😞 Two years, maximum salary (story). Worth at least $97,133,373 and as much as $111,009,571, depending on ’23/24 salary cap figure. Includes second-year player option. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hawks😞 Four years, $68,000,000 (story). Includes fourth-year team option. Starts in 2023/24.
    • CJ McCollum (Pelicans😞 Two years, $64,000,000 (story). Starts in 2024/25.
    • Nikola Vucevic (Bulls😞 Three years, $60,000,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24.
    • Harrison Barnes (Kings😞 Three years, $54,000,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24. Includes 10% trade kicker.
    • Naz Reid (Timberwolves😞 Three years, $41,959,296 (story). Includes third-year player option. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Myles Turner (Pacers😞 Two years, $40,903,500 (story). Includes renegotiation ($17,096,500 added to 2022/23 salary; $58,000,000 in total new money). Includes $3MM in incentives. Extension starts in 2023/24.
    • Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons😞 Two years, $39,032,850 (story). Second year partially guaranteed. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Maxi Kleber (Mavericks😞 Three years, $33,000,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24.
    • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets😞 Two years, $30,145,123 (story). Includes second-year player option. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Pat Connaughton (Bucks😞 Three years, $28,271,607 (story). Includes third-year player option. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Kenrich Williams (Thunder😞 Four years, $27,170,000 (story). Includes fourth-year team option. Starts in 2023/24.
    • Steven Adams (Grizzlies😞 Two years, $25,200,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24.
    • Larry Nance Jr. (Pelicans😞 Two years, $21,580,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24.
    • Al Horford (Celtics😞 Two years, $19,500,000 (story). Includes trade kicker (15% or $500K, whichever is lesser). Starts in 2023/24.
    • Dean Wade (Cavaliers😞 Three years, $18,500,000 (story). Third year partially guaranteed. Starts in 2023/24.
    • John Konchar (Grizzlies😞 Three years, $18,495,000 (story). Starts in 2024/25.
    • Nick Richards (Hornets😞 Three years, $15,000,000 (story). Third year non-guaranteed. Starts in 2023/24.

    Moving KAT is very much alive in Minny but it is no small feat.  Few teams are taking on large salaries right now. They are all still feeling out the new CBA.

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  5. 2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    So wrapping my head around the proposed trade of Lillard to Miami....the trade will be 

     

    Lillard for

     

    Herro +1 player + 2 1sts  (or more).

     

    Given Lillard's age (33) plus that Lillard hasn't played over 67 games in over 4 years and that he's signed through 26-27 at $62.3 million.....I'm trying to wrap my head around why Miami is doing this.

     

    They're already missing their 2025 draft pick and the roster is aging.  Lillard is not a good defender and is only going to decline with age. I'm not understanding this.  They'll end up over $30 million over the 2nd apron and remove all flexibility going forward. This is a serious degenerate gambler vegas bet.

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  6. NBA Expansion pre-conversation

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    2 hours ago, sillent said:

    I was with you almost all the way except for protecting Lundy over Bufkin.

    As much as I love Lundy I think he will go under the radar and not get picked.

    Kobe Bufkin on the other hand will be a star (in my opinion) and even if he was someone we traded later on because of redundancy or whatever he would have more value.

    Mock my words about Kobe but watch what I say. Trae's summer league was surprisingly more trash than Bufkin's but the intangibles are there.

    Other than that I agree with all your strategies including the Bogi one. I honestly think they may reach for a Bogi before Lundy but even then we have a replacement in AJ. Unfortunately that would be the risk of an expansion draft but like you said they may look elsewhere for their choices before spending that money on an aging Bogi.

    Trae's summer league, I still saw him playing eyes up, etc. Still liked what I saw, hated the results.  I'm not liking what I'm seeing from Kobe. He seems like he's at his best trying to play 1v1.... he may be better at what he's doing but I'm not of fan of that playstyle.

  7. NBA Expansion pre-conversation

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Hawkish said:

    Why not try to upgrade the top end of the roster with 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deals to get it to 10 strong where you aren’t concerned about veterans 11-15 being taken?

    Trae/Bufkin/Mills

    DJ/Bogi/Griffin/Lundy

    Hunter/Bey

    JJ/Gueye

    Capela/OO

    That’s thirteen right there.  A 3-for-1 deal would get us to eleven (assuming our FO just cannot proceed without a third “name” player added).  I’m not a proponent of Towns (nor do I want to trade Mills), but I’ll use him for example.

    Trae/Bufkin

    DJ/Griffin/Lundy

    JJ/Bey

    KAT/Gueye

    OO

    There is ten. Bogi would have to be the one “risked” with the hope an expansion team wouldn’t want him.

    E9D5B514-8C1F-4708-9A83-C9CC5C177809.png
     

    However, we have the TPE to use, so that may require another 2-for-1 trade or making Lundy available.

    Stay on track. I said it happens today, who are you protecting. Not a conversation on how to protect against it.  Like Supes, play the game or sit in the corner.

  8. Top 3 In the East

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

    I agree with you on Cleveland.   I think they will be a problem.  As I look at them, it's hard to find a weakness. 

    Cleveland is just going to outmuscle 2/3rds of the teams every night. I could easily see them winning 60+.  Highlighted a few changes in Red...all good pick ups.  the good players on their out list only played because they were brought in to fill in for injuries or were just not as impactful as they needed to be.

    But if they stay healthy, that's a really dangerous 10 deep roster. Strus' bad defense is easily covered on this team. Strus more valuable in Cle than Mia.

     

    Cleveland Cavaliers

    In: 5 Out: 8

    Roster changes and transactions

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  9. Top 3 In the East

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    NY took a step back, Toronto step back, Miami/Chicago step back. Philly step back maybe more.

     

    Cleveland better, Brooklyn, better.  Washington got a ton of shooting and might actually be a lot better in a clumsy way.  They may win/lose a lot of games 130-129.

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  11. Top 3 In the East

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    I should probably review in/out for most teams. I think Cleveland got shafted last year and was the most dangerous team (when healthy).

    6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

    As we look at the Current picture of the East....

    Cleveland - Should be good. 

    Milwaukee - New Coach.. but Should be good. 

    New York - Should be Good. 

    Philly - Ain't going nowhere.

    Brooklyn - This is going to be a good team also. 

    Boston - May have taken a step Backwards.  Losing Smart is going to hurt. 

    Those 5-6 teams is where the contest is going to be...

    Wildcards are Miami and Orlando (IMO).   Miami lost a lot in the offseason but Spoelstra can coach. 

     

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  13. NBA Expansion pre-conversation

    in Homecourt

    Posted · Edited by thecampster

    I'll start -

    Protected - Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Okongwu, AJ, JJ, Gueye, Bey, Capela, Lundy, Hunter.

    Unprotected - Bogi, Mills, Bufkin, Fernando, Matthews, Krejci, Martin, Norris, Mills

     

    Strategy, of all of our higher priced players, I'm betting Bogi is least likely to get drafted at his salary. I'm betting Bruno is taken because he's a bargain, Probably Vit, Maybe Bufkin and Norris.

     

    I see the Bufkin pick as a huge blunder and wish we would have drafted Cam Whitmore on draft night (I was disappointed and early results show me to be right). I have no problem if he's lost in the expansion draft. My only players in this exposure I would regret are Norris and Vit.  I'd honestly expose Bruno because I think he's grown and deserves a chance at minutes.

     

    Only waiver was to expose Capela or not.  I can't be 100% sure he wouldn't be lost to an expansion draft and if losing him, I'd prefer to get an asset for it.

    6 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:


    10 Keepers
    PG: Trae Young, Kobe Bufkin
    SG: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovich
    SF: DeAndre Hunter, AJ Griffin, Mouhamed Gueye
    PF: Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey
    C - Onyeka Okongwu

    Play fair, give your reasoning/strategy.

    • Like 1

  14. NBA Expansion pre-conversation

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    Its going to happen folks, sooner rather than later.  The last time this happened, teams were allowed to protect 8 players (I'm assuming 10 this time around).

     

    So lets assume we can protect 10 players.  Who on the current roster are you leaving unprotected?  Now remember there is a strategy to this. The two expansion teams will have to operate under the same rules in team construction. Leaving a player unprotected may hurt their feelings. Leaving a high salary player unprotected risks losing them. Leaving an undeveloped, low salary player unprotected could be a disaster.  This is a tool to deal with bad salary, bad decision but also could unmake your franchise in a bad way.  So step up or shut up.  List the 10 current Hawks you protect with a brief bit on your strategy.

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    2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    Let me also expound on value a bit.  I'll use my current favorite focus, Jalen Johnson.  Post all star break, here were Jalen's stats.

    52.9% from the field. 30.4% from 3.  7.2 points, 4.6 reb, 2.2 ast, .9 steals, .7 blocks in 16 minutes per game.

     

    If JJ just gives us what he gave us post all star break, steps into the starter role and gets 32 minutes per game, that equates to 14 points, 9 boards, 4 assists 2 steals 1.5 blocks per game....at $2.9 million.  Statistically, that's a steal and its very reasonable to believe he'd improve over 2nd half last year, not regress. To get a player of Siakam or KAT's ability, you're not just giving up a player, you're giving up his production per $ which with Jalen is off the chart (post all-star break).

    I think these numbers above are very reasonable. Jalen got 20 minutes per game in 5 games in April and went 11.6/4.8/3.2/1.8/1.4. 

     

    We can't replace that at $3 mil (vet min) at the trade deadline....we lose all financial flexibility if we don't stick to our guns in any Siakam/KAT/other trade....because they want our best value players.

     

    Griffin in a deal isn't much better. He makes $800k more, produces a smidge less across the board but is already a 38.5% 3 point shooter and that has value for everyone on the floor.  Floor spacing is key in the NBA. Giving up 1 or both of these in any deal should be a non-starter.  Not because they're Siakam level today but because their value, cost per point, cost per PER is ridiculous.

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  17. 2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    The problem being the talent Atlanta has that other teams want (AJ, JJ) are on really team friendly deals and are exceptional value at their projected production this season. Which is also why teams want them. It always comes down to money, player value...what you have to give up, make the salaries match, what it leaves you with.

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    2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

    Money - he wants too much!

    Actually not quite.

     

    In order to take on a $30m + salary, the Hawks need to package multiple players.  In order to be able to replace the young players they send out, they need the outgoing salary to be greater than the incoming (year 1).  So take for example KAT at $36 million.  They'd need to send 3 players making more than $36 million. But other teams want 1 or more of the young guys (one framework for Kat included JJ...he's only making $2.9 mil this year and I hated this deal).  Hard to make 3 players add up to more than $36 mil, less than $45,270,250 (trade max for taking KAT) but fit what both teams want. Especially if they don't want Capela.  So if you have to send Capela to a 3rd team, the 3rd team has to have stuff Minny wants.  Its a matter of money, making the salaries add up to enough without sending out too much value and not emptying too many roster slots.

    25 minutes ago, Jdawgflow said:

    Would you expound on this a bit?  

     

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    2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    2 hours ago, tyjcdh112012 said:

    Anyone else get a dopamine rush when Sothron or supes drop an update 

    The other reason I post less...I don't want to be known as anyone's dealer.

     

    If you guys fall off the wagon and go back to crack its not our fault !!! 😇

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  20. 2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Sothron said:

    So Steve Koonin confirms what we were telling you on here for sometime about trades we were/are close to making. I legit thought last weekend KAT would be announced. I still think there's a chance it happens just now the timeline is pushed back to Sept.

    They said what we've been saying....money....they fell through due to money.

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    2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    My opinion on all of the above

     

    JC defense vs Kat

    Defensive rating (lower is better) - Kat career 109.2, last season 113.7  JC career 112.7, 115.3 last season.

    A simple look would stat Kat is actually better defensively than JC with one small caveat. Kat played both positions while JC primarily played PF.  PF's historically have a larger rating than C's.  That said, Kat played primarily PF last season and was better last season by 1.6.  

    One might argue that Kat is better offensively which leads to better team defense.  John's career offense rating is 121.2 but was only 116.7 last season. However, Kat's ORTG last year was the same at 116.7 with a career number of 119.4.  

     

    The delineating factor here is who each played with.  While John's offense was obviously helped by having Trae in the lineup but fell yearly with Clint in the lineup and young players growing, Kat has never really benefitted from elite PG play and his numbers fell last year as other players took on an offensive load.

     

    I'd say the Hawks are better with KAT than JC but what I can't say is they're $23 million more in salary better.  The only benefit Kat brings that JC doesn't is the star factor and the benefit of the call. Kat is more likely to get calls and that could turn games in the final 3 minutes.

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    2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Jody23 said:

    Move on Hawks.  There could be other opportunities.  It appears they're only interested in trying to fleece someone.

    They were extremely close to moves on draft night.  The team wants to flex, they've had partners, just not the right final deal.

    I mean anything could change in an instant but I'd usually hear something about it a day or two before and haven't heard anything.

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    2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

     

    OT: so we hired a new guy in our company and had a meeting this morning. Dude was weird AF. So people are speaking individually and after a couple sentences, homeboy picks up on one word and repeats it. :unsure: He did it like three times. 

    Somebody said something … like blah blah blah … “superfluous”.. 

    1 second after… verbatim: HA, superfluous. 
     

    Everyone in the meeting: 👀  :ph34r: 

     

    Go Hawks! 😐 

     

    I try to start this from time to time. I'll introduce a new term to see how long before everyone is using it wrong.

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  25. 2023-24 Insider Information Thread

    in Homecourt

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

    I understand the appeal of KAT but we were like #7 offense last year with JC broken shot, no spacing from Capela, and midrange Murray— not to mention outdated offensive principles from Nate.  More offense at the expense of defense does not feel like the direction to go… especially at center.  Imo its way easier to coach guys into an offensive scheme that gets them them better looks, better efficiency, than it is to teach defensive instincts and awareness.  So team Siakam for me

    So one thing about defensive metrics, they are highly dependent on how the defensive possession begins.

     

    Defensive possession stats go like this (in order worst scenario for defense to best).

    Worst - turnover leads to transition.

    long rebound leads to transition

    possession due to offensive rebound

    change of possession due to jump shot rebound

    change of possession due to layup rebound

    half court out of bounds

    Full court out of bounds off made layup

    best - full court out of bounds play off jump shot, 3 point shot, made free throw

     

    By efficiency, turnovers lead to the most points by the other team (on average).  Made shots where the team gets a chance to run down and set up on defense are the best.  So there is a benefit to offensive efficiency and better 3 point shooting.  It leads to more set defensive sets, which does make defense easier to play.

    Its minor but it is a consideration.  Many times things aren't as easy as they seem.

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