thecampster

So you've heard Steve Koonin on local AM radio (Atlanta) talking about having deals in place that they thought were going to get done on draft night (which I reported on at the time) and recently as well (which we've all talked about). What I said before is what I said before but with a caveat. 1) No deal is dead but they're at a wall. There is more out there than KAT/Siakam for the Hawks but these were the 2 deals that were the most close and highest profile. Some deals come together in a day. Some get worked out over a week or two. A smaller percentage of the time deals go through stages where frameworks are created and both sides give a final best offer and they take a cooling off period while each team verifies if they want to take the other's best offer. That is what's going on now. 2) Remember there are other teams working out deals as well and sometimes this thing gets complicated. Teams get wind of a deal and they get in to either try and get better by being a third party or they jump in to try and steal the deal from one party or the other. I believe this is what happened with the Siakam deal (actually I know). Because we'd inquired about Siakam in the past, they approached us about interest in Siakam when they learned we had a stalled framework with Minny. Trying to steal the opportunity from Minnesota. By extension, Indiana jumped in to try to supplant Atlanta in the Toronto deal. 3) Atlanta is not the only team with trade chips being added over the next two months. Any extensions that happed after July 15th last year and before the start of training camp also fit into this mold. Its very possible the deal is waiting on a 3rd party's player to become available. Below is a list of all players who signed veteran extensions with their team last season. I don't have the dates handy but you can research each player's eligibility to be traded date on fanspo or spotrac, I believe. What this means is during this cool-off, one of the teams could decide to take the other's best offer and make the deal. They could also be waiting on a player to become available to take that version of the deal or 3 wait on a player to become available on a 3rd team. No one is really going to get that detail, even as an insider (again, I don't like this term). Deals held up in contingencies are rarely leaked in full to avoid any possible tampering charges (see mess Philly almost got into over Harden). Veteran contract extensions: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets Five years, maximum salary (story). Projected value of $272,020,000. Includes fifth-year player option and 15% trade kicker. Starts in 2023/24. Devin Booker (Suns Four years, maximum salary (story). Includes 10% trade kicker. Starts in 2024/25. Note: Booker’s starting salary in 2024/25 will be 35% of the ’24/25 salary cap. Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves Four years, maximum salary (story). Includes fourth-year player option. Starts in 2024/25. Note: Towns’ starting salary in 2024/25 will be 35% of the ’24/25 salary cap. Andrew Wiggins (Warriors Four years, $109,000,002 (story). Includes fourth-year player option. Starts in 2023/24. Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers Two years, maximum salary (story). Worth at least $106,552,285 and as much as $121,774,039, depending on ’25/26 salary cap figure. Starts in 2025/26. LeBron James (Lakers Two years, maximum salary (story). Worth at least $97,133,373 and as much as $111,009,571, depending on ’23/24 salary cap figure. Includes second-year player option. Starts in 2023/24. Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hawks Four years, $68,000,000 (story). Includes fourth-year team option. Starts in 2023/24. CJ McCollum (Pelicans Two years, $64,000,000 (story). Starts in 2024/25. Nikola Vucevic (Bulls Three years, $60,000,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24. Harrison Barnes (Kings Three years, $54,000,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24. Includes 10% trade kicker. Naz Reid (Timberwolves Three years, $41,959,296 (story). Includes third-year player option. Starts in 2023/24. Myles Turner (Pacers Two years, $40,903,500 (story). Includes renegotiation ($17,096,500 added to 2022/23 salary; $58,000,000 in total new money). Includes $3MM in incentives. Extension starts in 2023/24. Bojan Bogdanovic (Pistons Two years, $39,032,850 (story). Second year partially guaranteed. Starts in 2023/24. Maxi Kleber (Mavericks Three years, $33,000,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nuggets Two years, $30,145,123 (story). Includes second-year player option. Starts in 2023/24. Pat Connaughton (Bucks Three years, $28,271,607 (story). Includes third-year player option. Starts in 2023/24. Kenrich Williams (Thunder Four years, $27,170,000 (story). Includes fourth-year team option. Starts in 2023/24. Steven Adams (Grizzlies Two years, $25,200,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24. Larry Nance Jr. (Pelicans Two years, $21,580,000 (story). Starts in 2023/24. Al Horford (Celtics Two years, $19,500,000 (story). Includes trade kicker (15% or $500K, whichever is lesser). Starts in 2023/24. Dean Wade (Cavaliers Three years, $18,500,000 (story). Third year partially guaranteed. Starts in 2023/24. John Konchar (Grizzlies Three years, $18,495,000 (story). Starts in 2024/25. Nick Richards (Hornets Three years, $15,000,000 (story). Third year non-guaranteed. Starts in 2023/24. Moving KAT is very much alive in Minny but it is no small feat. Few teams are taking on large salaries right now. They are all still feeling out the new CBA.

So wrapping my head around the proposed trade of Lillard to Miami....the trade will be Lillard for Herro +1 player + 2 1sts (or more). Given Lillard's age (33) plus that Lillard hasn't played over 67 games in over 4 years and that he's signed through 26-27 at $62.3 million.....I'm trying to wrap my head around why Miami is doing this. They're already missing their 2025 draft pick and the roster is aging. Lillard is not a good defender and is only going to decline with age. I'm not understanding this. They'll end up over $30 million over the 2nd apron and remove all flexibility going forward. This is a serious degenerate gambler vegas bet.

Trae's summer league, I still saw him playing eyes up, etc. Still liked what I saw, hated the results. I'm not liking what I'm seeing from Kobe. He seems like he's at his best trying to play 1v1.... he may be better at what he's doing but I'm not of fan of that playstyle.

Stay on track. I said it happens today, who are you protecting. Not a conversation on how to protect against it. Like Supes, play the game or sit in the corner.

Cleveland is just going to outmuscle 2/3rds of the teams every night. I could easily see them winning 60+. Highlighted a few changes in Red...all good pick ups. the good players on their out list only played because they were brought in to fill in for injuries or were just not as impactful as they needed to be. But if they stay healthy, that's a really dangerous 10 deep roster. Strus' bad defense is easily covered on this team. Strus more valuable in Cle than Mia. Cleveland Cavaliers In: 5 Out: 8 Roster changes and transactions STAY1: Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Isaac Okoro, Ricky Rubio, Dean Wade, Isaiah Mobley. IN2: Emoni Bates (R), Ty Jerome (GSW), Damian Jones (UTA), Georges Niang (PHI), Max Strus (MIA). OUT4: Mamadi Diakite, Danny Green, Robin Lopez (MIL), Sam Merrill, Raul Neto, Cedi Osman (SAS), Lamar Stevens (SAS), Dylan Windler.

NY took a step back, Toronto step back, Miami/Chicago step back. Philly step back maybe more. Cleveland better, Brooklyn, better. Washington got a ton of shooting and might actually be a lot better in a clumsy way. They may win/lose a lot of games 130-129.

Okay, just looked over Boston. Yes, I think they took a step back but only a minor one. Looked over Atlanta, If Jalen = Collins or better, we are better on paper.

I should probably review in/out for most teams. I think Cleveland got shafted last year and was the most dangerous team (when healthy).

Hey play the game or sit in the corner.

I'll start - Protected - Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, Okongwu, AJ, JJ, Gueye, Bey, Capela, Lundy, Hunter. Unprotected - Bogi, Mills, Bufkin, Fernando, Matthews, Krejci, Martin, Norris, Mills Strategy, of all of our higher priced players, I'm betting Bogi is least likely to get drafted at his salary. I'm betting Bruno is taken because he's a bargain, Probably Vit, Maybe Bufkin and Norris. I see the Bufkin pick as a huge blunder and wish we would have drafted Cam Whitmore on draft night (I was disappointed and early results show me to be right). I have no problem if he's lost in the expansion draft. My only players in this exposure I would regret are Norris and Vit. I'd honestly expose Bruno because I think he's grown and deserves a chance at minutes. Only waiver was to expose Capela or not. I can't be 100% sure he wouldn't be lost to an expansion draft and if losing him, I'd prefer to get an asset for it. Play fair, give your reasoning/strategy.

Its going to happen folks, sooner rather than later. The last time this happened, teams were allowed to protect 8 players (I'm assuming 10 this time around). So lets assume we can protect 10 players. Who on the current roster are you leaving unprotected? Now remember there is a strategy to this. The two expansion teams will have to operate under the same rules in team construction. Leaving a player unprotected may hurt their feelings. Leaving a high salary player unprotected risks losing them. Leaving an undeveloped, low salary player unprotected could be a disaster. This is a tool to deal with bad salary, bad decision but also could unmake your franchise in a bad way. So step up or shut up. List the 10 current Hawks you protect with a brief bit on your strategy.

I endured 19 years of school. I earned the right to say more than "because math!!!"

Let me also expound on value a bit. I'll use my current favorite focus, Jalen Johnson. Post all star break, here were Jalen's stats. 52.9% from the field. 30.4% from 3. 7.2 points, 4.6 reb, 2.2 ast, .9 steals, .7 blocks in 16 minutes per game. If JJ just gives us what he gave us post all star break, steps into the starter role and gets 32 minutes per game, that equates to 14 points, 9 boards, 4 assists 2 steals 1.5 blocks per game....at $2.9 million. Statistically, that's a steal and its very reasonable to believe he'd improve over 2nd half last year, not regress. To get a player of Siakam or KAT's ability, you're not just giving up a player, you're giving up his production per $ which with Jalen is off the chart (post all-star break). I think these numbers above are very reasonable. Jalen got 20 minutes per game in 5 games in April and went 11.6/4.8/3.2/1.8/1.4. We can't replace that at $3 mil (vet min) at the trade deadline....we lose all financial flexibility if we don't stick to our guns in any Siakam/KAT/other trade....because they want our best value players. Griffin in a deal isn't much better. He makes $800k more, produces a smidge less across the board but is already a 38.5% 3 point shooter and that has value for everyone on the floor. Floor spacing is key in the NBA. Giving up 1 or both of these in any deal should be a non-starter. Not because they're Siakam level today but because their value, cost per point, cost per PER is ridiculous.

The problem being the talent Atlanta has that other teams want (AJ, JJ) are on really team friendly deals and are exceptional value at their projected production this season. Which is also why teams want them. It always comes down to money, player value...what you have to give up, make the salaries match, what it leaves you with.

Actually not quite. In order to take on a $30m + salary, the Hawks need to package multiple players. In order to be able to replace the young players they send out, they need the outgoing salary to be greater than the incoming (year 1). So take for example KAT at $36 million. They'd need to send 3 players making more than $36 million. But other teams want 1 or more of the young guys (one framework for Kat included JJ...he's only making $2.9 mil this year and I hated this deal). Hard to make 3 players add up to more than $36 mil, less than $45,270,250 (trade max for taking KAT) but fit what both teams want. Especially if they don't want Capela. So if you have to send Capela to a 3rd team, the 3rd team has to have stuff Minny wants. Its a matter of money, making the salaries add up to enough without sending out too much value and not emptying too many roster slots.

The other reason I post less...I don't want to be known as anyone's dealer. If you guys fall off the wagon and go back to crack its not our fault !!!

They said what we've been saying....money....they fell through due to money.

My opinion on all of the above JC defense vs Kat Defensive rating (lower is better) - Kat career 109.2, last season 113.7 JC career 112.7, 115.3 last season. A simple look would stat Kat is actually better defensively than JC with one small caveat. Kat played both positions while JC primarily played PF. PF's historically have a larger rating than C's. That said, Kat played primarily PF last season and was better last season by 1.6. One might argue that Kat is better offensively which leads to better team defense. John's career offense rating is 121.2 but was only 116.7 last season. However, Kat's ORTG last year was the same at 116.7 with a career number of 119.4. The delineating factor here is who each played with. While John's offense was obviously helped by having Trae in the lineup but fell yearly with Clint in the lineup and young players growing, Kat has never really benefitted from elite PG play and his numbers fell last year as other players took on an offensive load. I'd say the Hawks are better with KAT than JC but what I can't say is they're $23 million more in salary better. The only benefit Kat brings that JC doesn't is the star factor and the benefit of the call. Kat is more likely to get calls and that could turn games in the final 3 minutes.

They were extremely close to moves on draft night. The team wants to flex, they've had partners, just not the right final deal. I mean anything could change in an instant but I'd usually hear something about it a day or two before and haven't heard anything.

I wouldn't anticipate anything happening soon. I really don't want to break it down but they're basically at am impass. The offseason lasts through September, a few more options open up for us in September. Draw your own conclusions.

I try to start this from time to time. I'll introduce a new term to see how long before everyone is using it wrong.

So one thing about defensive metrics, they are highly dependent on how the defensive possession begins. Defensive possession stats go like this (in order worst scenario for defense to best). Worst - turnover leads to transition. long rebound leads to transition possession due to offensive rebound change of possession due to jump shot rebound change of possession due to layup rebound half court out of bounds Full court out of bounds off made layup best - full court out of bounds play off jump shot, 3 point shot, made free throw By efficiency, turnovers lead to the most points by the other team (on average). Made shots where the team gets a chance to run down and set up on defense are the best. So there is a benefit to offensive efficiency and better 3 point shooting. It leads to more set defensive sets, which does make defense easier to play. Its minor but it is a consideration. Many times things aren't as easy as they seem.

KAT stretches the floor and requires a double in the post. KAT cannot guard the 3. Can guard 4/5 on the perimeter but not a mobile 4 (like Lauri) or mobile 5 like Clint, OO. Siakam is an inconsistent shooter and is not the best floor spacing option. Siakam is a much better defender and can defend 4 position (not the biggest centers or fastest PG), but everyone else and is very good defending mobile players.

Doesn't have to be aggregated. See below Indiana's cap space. They have room to work. If they have a deal for Siakam in place they can work out a simultaneous trade to clear up the space by sending out Toppin, and then send out very little salary to bring back Siakam. They have options here.

Word is the Pacers acquiring Toppin was to use as a trade bit in a Siakam deal.