thecampster

Okay, lets pretend I'm correct. The math is correct. The Gobert factor alone would increase their win totals over Clint by the suggested %. In that scenario we are winning 50 games a year instead of 43...I think its more but I'll stick with that.  That would have had us 2nd seed last this past year and completely changed our draws. 1st step in winning an NBA championship is secure a high enough seed to limit the amount of rough and tumble beating your star scorers will take. To do that, you need to finish top 4. Top 2 preferably.

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Win what???

Scroll up and read and just look at his winning % impact the last 3 years compared to other players.

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Give us that salary cap number with Gobert on the team then

Same Cap, waive and stretch Gallo.  Clint + Huerter + #16 for Gobert.  $136.9 million. 8 players on the roster. Need to sign Wright, Knox, Cooper, Mays.  Tax payer MLE available (6.3 mil), 2 trade exceptions available $1.7 mil each average.

Substitute Bogi for Huerter and its pretty much the same numbers but you don't have to stretch Gallo.

Use Bogi and Trade Gallo as Jaybird suggests for 4 scrubs from OKC to fill out the bench ($16 mil in salary) and you have 12 players, $147 mil and your exceptions available.

6 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I see y'all don't want to answer those questions because you are so busy playing 2k trade machine that you are out of touch with reality.

No I just wanted to give you accurate data.

Here, lets have some fun. Start at the 44 second mark for some fun Trae and Gobert stuffs.

15 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

But what does that mean for him and his team in the playoffs where it matters most? 

Again, looking at his total team, he elevated it more than anyone but Lebron.  He'd have a better supporting cast here.

1 minute ago, Sothron said:

And yet Gobert has won zero rings. He was been to zero Finals. Has he even made out of the second round? Ever? I can't remember if they ever have with Gobert.

I would take Ayton 24/7 over 31 year old with super max contract Gobert. Especially if the cost to get Gobert is crazy land talk or by simply having his monster salary we're forced to dump Collins just to get cheap elsewhere on the roster.

If you get Gobert, you don't have to move Collins. 

Gobert+ Collins = Plus, Plus defense in the front court against bigs, cutters. Only issue is switches on the perimeter. Better Collins offense in the front court. Bigs can't leave Gobert to double Collins. More efficient center play around the basket, slightly more room for guards to work. Best rebounding option.

Ayton + Collins = Slightly improved defense against bigs in the front court (than Clint), similar defense all around to Clint (but Embiid will no longer just eat lunch against us. He'll only average 25). Poorer team defense than Gobert. . Best offense from Collins. Most room for our guards to work. 

Because of the above, we'd need to move Collins to get better on the perimeter with Ayton because he can't cover the paint like Gobert. The main advantage to Ayton+Collins is opposing center must respect Ayton drifting out to 20 feet.

12 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Yeah...I think I'm getting close to being on board with the impact, but I'm still skeptical of the cost and what it does for the rest of the roster.  

Haven't you said something about the Salary Cap increasing after next year or something?  Will there be any flexibility left on the roster if we are paying him and Trae a combined $70M+?  Honest question here.  I thought I remembered you mentioning that.  

TV deal expires in 25. So we won't see a massive salary increase till 25-26.  However, the last couple of years the cap was held down due to Covid.  Its based off revenues the previous season. Logic and reason says we should see good growth between now and 2025-26 when the new contract kicks in.

3 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

Touché.

But I'm not suggesting they shop at Goodwill to improve the roster.  I'm just saying you already have Clint at $19M while Rudy is $38M.  I'd rather pay Ayton $30M if we are going to upgrade C (which I think we should).  We also desperately need to upgrade Wing defense and add a 2nd playmaker.  So where's the money coming from if you got $70M tied up in 2 players?

Capela record without last 2 years. 10-7 (58.8%). With 74-63 (54%).  Last 2 years, we've had a 4% better winning percentage when Clint doesn't play.  Stew on that and then see the Gobert numbers.  The extra salary for Gobert is the salary lost in waiving Gallo.

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

Over the last 3 years, they are 9-12 (42.8%) without Gobert in the lineup.  They are 136-69 (66.3%) with him in the lineup.

For comparison, everyone's favorite Euro Luka.

Dallas record last 3 years without Luka 17-20  (45.9%)

Dallas record with Luka 120-72 (62.5%).

Realize the withouts are too small of a sample to pull from but the above suggests that Gobert is more impactful than Luka Doncic.

Lets try Trae but omit 3 years ago due to the poor record.

Hawks without Trae the last 2 years 8-7. (53.3%)

With Trae Young the last 2 years 76-63 (54.7% and I'm a Trae Stan).

yes, Gobert makes that much of a difference.

Lebron James - Lakers 22-35 (38.6%) without Lebron.  With Lebron 105-63. (62.5%)

The numbers suggest Gobert was more impactful the last 3 years than Lebron.....

So Ayton?

Without Ayton 35-27 (56.4%). With 114-51. (69%)

Winning % difference between with and without.  Yes he's easily top 15 from this simple look.

Lebron +23.9%

Gobert +23.5%

Luka +16.6%

Ayton + 13.6%

Trae +1.4%

Just now, REHawksFan said:

Dang man.  You've almost got me convinced.  But yeah, it's a tough pill to swallow being nearly DOUBLE what Clint costs.  Just seems like the money could be spread out more to have the same or better impact.  BUT, like I said.  You almost got me convinced.  

see above

Over the last 3 years, they are 9-12 without Gobert in the lineup.  They are 136-69 with him in the lineup.

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No he is not.  

Make your list and see where he falls.

Take a second and think about this.  

Mike Conley/Bojan Bogdonavic/Royce O'neal

vs

BB (or Huerter)/Deandre Hunter/John Collins 

in a game of 3v3....10 games...how many does Utah Win?  (I've taken out Trae vs Mitchell, Gobert vs CC).

Utah won 6 more games than us last year.  They went 7-9 without Gobert but 42-24 with him.  That's a monstrous impact.

1 minute ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Ha.

Top 15 guys are those you would select to build your team around.

He's very impactful at what he does, game changer when it matters - still waiting to see it.

see above

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

No he is not.  

Make your list and see where he falls.

Game impact...he might be.  Hey we disagree....if this was a drinking game we'd be so sober.

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Gobert does a lot that doesn't show up on the stat sheet offensively. Gobert is a top 15 player. He's legit, he's not smoke and mirrors like Ayton.

 

The average Hawk fan doesn't understand how good Gobert is and likely won't till he's in Atlanta.

3 things

1) Players like Gobert shorten the floor for everyone else defensively. They change all the angles. (Yes, even more than Clint).

2) Players like Gobert change offensive possessions. He must be accounted for at all times. There is no recovering from he got position on you. He's too big. There is a reason he shot 71.3% from the field last year. Even on strictly 2's...that's the same as a 3 point shooter averaging 47.3 %...well except he isn't giving up long rebounds so its more like a sniper shooting 50% from 3.

3) Players like Gobert have free agent gravity. When you get 2 players of his caliber on a team, they encourage other free agents to want to come there and ring chase. Ayton at this point in his career doesn't do that, even LaVine doesn't do that.

People keep looking at his salary, but this is exactly why he's worth that salary.  His impact goes beyond 15/12. He changes the entire floor, the team outlook, the defensive assignments.  That Utah team was horrible without him on the floor. He's that impactful.

6 minutes ago, Diesel said:

This new math is something.. or maybe new rules... Yeah.. I had it at roughly a 4 Million dollar difference.   I have always thought that unless you had some type of exceptions or one team was under the cap...... Because a team cannot make a trade that will put them 100,000 over the salary cap. 

After the 1st... we will be well over the salary cap with CC, Trae's, and Kev's new Salary hitting the board... so how are we supposed to be able to afford this 4 Million dollar gap?

125%+100,000 of the lower of the salary aggregate from the Hawks for trade rules.  Without Gallo, this move would leave us approximately 13 million shy of the LT.

2 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Capela ($19.7), Huerter ($14.5) and #16 for Gober ($38) - difference of $3.8 million.

Which is why the trade isn't being done pre-draft.  Huerter's pre-draft value is closer to 10 mil making the numbers wonkier. Needs to happen post Moratorium which is why you aren't hearing about it.

24 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

@Spud2nique  Camp did the homework for you.

Doesn't mean he didn't say it too. 

35 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

This.  And I think this is what the campster indicated back in early May.

This was the post from early May she is referencing. It is actually me giving attribution to an article that is validating what I said earlier. I actually said it back in April a few times that we'd prefer to send BB but they'd want Huerter (or Hunter but the salaries won't match).

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

A lot. 

CHA, TOR, BRK, WAS, PHX, DAL, UTA, POR, LAL, LAC, and IND

Not saying I know anything  but I know Brooklyn would love to pair KD with Capela. KD might be the most natural fit opposite Capela in the league. This is a poorly kept secret around the league.