thecampster

20 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Yeah i think my confusion is that I'm reading into some of these posts that getting Ayton in a SNT is impossible (not accusing anyone of saying that, just my interpretation).   When in reality it's really not that hard.  Send out bogi/gallo.  Send Capela in a snt trade.   Or something like that.  

I know i'm about to get flamed that this is totally wrong but i'm pretty sure it is close.   

Let me use your scenario.  1st waive Gallo. You aren't trading Gallo without taking back similar salary.  Down to $136 million salary + hold for 2022 pick ($3.46 mil).

Send Bogi to SAS for #9. Bogi salary $18 mil - cap hold of $4.95 mil (13.05 million cleared). New cap = $123 mil.  Now just to get under the cap, clear $2 million more....Say trade JC for (insert 20 million player here).  Okay, you are now under the cap but the problem is Phoenix is also over the cap by $8 million (active salaries only). You must now clear them under the cap by the amount of Ayton's outgoing salary + 8 million before engaging the trade for normal trade rules to apply.

Its a complicated mess for sure. Doable, yes in some universe but it ain't happening here without a fire sale.

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Gobert sounds more feasible. He can help us now and wouldn't cost as much. 

I have my thoughts on it.  I truly feel Gobert is a better fit next to JC, more mature than Ayton but I'm also not sure JC is staying if the trade is for Gobert. They could save salary by moving JC and moving JJ into the starting role or let him learn from the bench for 1 year behind Gallo.  Its a bit fluid there.  JJ can rebound, Gobert can rebound and both are very long. There is a cut game and a ball on the floor game that JJ brings that JC does not.  JC's spot up game, put back game and defensive feel is better at this point but JJ would be a great fit in 2 years across from Gobert (assuming he stays healthy/mobile).

I think JC the person would be a bigger loss than JC the player.  JC has heart and a good feel for his teammates/the locker room. I feel we might need that chemistry with all the older vets moving on the last few years.

2 minutes ago, marco102 said:

 

check out this post so you can understand. 

That ain't right. You can't package a player with an SnT.  Also on the failed trade, I'm not 100% sure that's accurate with the cap figure vs cap figure for trades. Not sure I'm trusting that trade calculator.

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

@marco102, that's a good point with Capela why his name was always mentioned. @thecampster, look into a Capela SnT for Ayton deal. And look into us trading Bogi for SA 1st 2022, let's say 20th overall plus a TPE and let's say we just cut Gallo. Can we do a SnT without all of the red tape for Ayton with Capela as the only player in the deal? 

No. Even without Gallo we're at $136 million in salary.  We're over, they're over even after waivers/renouncing.  Both teams are over. Its a BYC situation. 20% salary raise, team will be over the cap when trade complete.

yes, should be 125% + 100k. So more like $19 mil flat.

So the matching amount is 50% of the new contract (in this instance).  So matching 125% + 100k off that.

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

That is a really good point I hadn't considered. 

For those wondering what Jaybird is saying here.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2019/05/hoops-rumors-glossary-base-year-compensation.html

"

The BYC rules apply to a player who meets the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:

• He is a Bird or Early Bird free agent.
• His new salary is worth more than the minimum.
• He receives a raise greater than 20%.
• His team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing.

If the player meets those criteria and is included in a sign-and-trade deal, his outgoing salary for matching purposes is considered to be his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater. For the team he is being signed-and-traded to, his incoming figure for matching purposes is his full new salary."

That new contract is $30,250,000.  Phoenix is over the cap and will be approaching the LT with the signing or trade. His outgoing salary would be either higher of $ 12,632,950  or "$15,125,000". The amount Phoenix could take back would have to be within 25% of that number or about $18.9 mil.

lemme check that 25%...be a minute

11 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

1. No. Not at all. Especially if the team is only willing to do a SnT and not just let the player walk like NO and SA did with Chicago. This is an Iso Joe case. 

2. Ayton cap hold is higher than his max. We wouldn't have any issues with BYC in regard to Ayton. He's not Kevin making that cheap rookie contract salary.

 

To end the confusion, @thecampster, let's have a trade talk on Ayton and what it would take to land him with the Hawks so we don't have any questions moving forward. I wished Michelle Leftwich was a poster. She would be so damn helpful. 

Just answered. BYC would apply.  The problem is being able to send limited assets back.

2 hours ago, AHF said:

I do struggle a bit to understand why you complained so hard about the 23 year old playing at an All-NBA level but not the 24 year old who was playing at replacement level for much of the season.

Trae - Hunter

28.4 ppg > 13.4  ppg 

.603 ts% > .547 ts%

9.7 apg > 1.3 apg

3.7 rpg > 3.3 rpg (yes, that is the rebounding average)

0.9 spg >  0.7 spg

0.1 bpg < 0.4 bpg 

10.0 WS > 1.1 WS

5.2 BPM > -3.9 BPM (yes, negative)

4.8 VORP > -0.8 VORP (yes, negative)

3.7 RAPTOR > -2.1 RAPTOR (yes, negative)

 

For me, I'm over the moon with how well Trae has come along in his young career.  I saw a harsh downside when we drafted him and he has outperformed even what I would have considered a "realistic" ceiling projection for him at this point in career.  Definitely not complaining about him game after game.

Hunter has been considerably less than I had hoped for career to date but I actually share hope with you that he will continue to improve.  I don't expect he will be an All-Star by his 5th year but that would be amazing (with the comparison to Jaylen Brown).  

So I'm less perplexed by your uncritical support of Hunter as I am by your hyper critical breakdown of Trae.

I do agree with you that if we run the team back, we need to see a big step up from Hunter next season if this team is going to be as good as we all hope it will.  A healthy offseason for him, just like for OO and others, should be time well spent so he can best position himself for his next contract.

 

Would you be willing to run that same stat breakdown for Huerter, BB, JC, Clint (apologies for the big ask)?

7 minutes ago, kg01 said:

So where does the triumverate stand on my suggestion of posting false rumors curated by the venerable kg account?

It's the only way to fight this terrorism.  Put me in, coach.

But, in reality ....

If we add you and Spud, people will no longer have to ask

On 5/31/2022 at 2:27 PM, JeffS17 said:

I'm cautiously optimistic about this 16th pick.  Everyone has seen the numbers wrt to our cap space, and I think it was @thecampster(?) that has talked about how valuable these mid 1st picks are because you can get solid talent for really cheap rookie deals, which is going to be a necessity to make a title run in the next 4-5 years.  I hope we take someone that's talented and close to being ready, so they can contribute in the rotation next year or at least by 2023 season.

Follow up. See Brooklyn deferring Phillys pick to next year. Bill move considering having Embiid makes them a top 4 contender in the East every year.

25 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I'm cautiously optimistic about this 16th pick.  Everyone has seen the numbers wrt to our cap space, and I think it was @thecampster(?) that has talked about how valuable these mid 1st picks are because you can get solid talent for really cheap rookie deals, which is going to be a necessity to make a title run in the next 4-5 years.  I hope we take someone that's talented and close to being ready, so they can contribute in the rotation next year or at least by 2023 season.

Usually they are but the number of teams seeing that value this year is low.  Most playoff level teams see vet min contracts as more valuable this year over rookie deals. Exact opposite of last year.

36 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Player Option

Team Option

Qualifying Offer

Non-Guaranteed

Partially Guaranteed

Player	Age	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	Signed Using	Guaranteed	Notes
Trae Young	23	$30.5M	$32.9M	$35.3M	$37.8M	$40.2M	Bird	$176,900,000
John Collins	24	$23.5M	$25.3M	$26.5M	$26.5M		Bird	$75,420,000
Danilo Gallinari	33	$21.4M					Sign And Trade	$21,450,000
Clint Capela	28	$18.2M	$20.6M	$22.2M			Bird	$61,088,177
Bogdan Bogdanovic	29	$18.0M	$18.0M				Cap Space	$18,000,000
Kevin Knox II	22	$7.2M					Rookie	$0
Delon Wright	30							$0
Kevin Huerter	23	$14.5M	$15.6M	$16.8M	$17.9M		Bird	$65,000,000
De'Andre Hunter	24	$9.8M	$12.9M				Rookie	$0
Lou Williams	35							$0
Onyeka Okongwu	21	$6.3M	$8.1M	$10.8M			Rookie	$0
Gorgui Dieng	32							$0
Jalen Johnson	20	$2.7M	$2.9M	$4.5M	$6.4M		Rookie	$2,792,640
Skylar Mays	24	$2.0M					Minimum	$0
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	27							$0
Sharife Cooper	20	$1.5M						$0
Chaundee Brown Jr.	23		$1.6M					$0
Team TotalThe s		$156.0M	$138.2M	$116.3M	$88.8M	$40.2M		$420,650,817

Use spotrac. Its much easier to understand once you take a minute to read it and its updated more frequently.

See bolded below.

2022-23 Luxury Tax Totals

Denotes the Hawks current standing in terms of the luxury tax threshold. Teams that spend over the threshold pay fines (estimated below).

2022-23 Atlanta Hawks Salary Cap Totals

The Hawks are currently over the league salary cap. This means Cap Holds & Exceptions are NOT included in their Total Cap Allocations, and renouncing these figures will not afford them any cap space. The team may only sign outside players using any available exceptions or at league minimum salaries.

20 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

1. Your number does not include the additional $6 mil for Trae making All NBA

2. We will always be operating over the Salary cap but want to stay under the Luxury Tax until trades, then go using exceptions

3. Hawks will not offer Knox a $7 mil QO, so strike that

4. Base your calculations on the players with FULLY GUARANTEED contracts first.

5. You don't need to be under the salary cap to do a SnT just under the LT (preferably) once the trade is completed.

6. If using your $145.7 mill above...subtract Gallo $21 mil....now at $124.7....SnT Clint ($19) for Ayton ($30):

124-19+30 = $135....still over the salary cap but under the Luxury tax

And try to remember the order you resign people/make trades matters, but if you are resigning your own player, the cap hold until he is resigned matters. So if you are resigning say Knox to a minimum deal, his cap hold remains until he is resigned.

35 minutes ago, Diesel said:

Yeah, but those number (146) includes Capholds...

As I was saying....  We can move those Capholds to either waive the players or resign them and we will be under the cap...

 

For instance...

Knox's Caphold is 17.5 Million.

That's a 17.5 Million dollar Hit against the Cap.   We resign Knox at 2.5 Million, that takes us to 131 Million.

Lou's caphold is 9.5 Million... We waive Lou, that's 9.5 Million that comes off our Cap... that takes us to 122.5 Million.

Then there's Dieng, TLC - Wave... that's 6.5 More.

Then there's Signing Delon to a 3 yr 29 Million dollar deal...  That's 8.2 More.

 

Point is.. we can make moves to get us to 109 Million in Cap simply by resigning and Waiving and we don't even have to do anything with Gallo Yet. 

I see the trading of Gallo for nothing as being a waste when we can still do the trade without giving him away for nothing. 

 

Read here.  By waiving Gallow and ditching all of our cap holds, we're at $136 million (ish).  I do not understand nor accept your math of $109 million.  I think you are missing something.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/atlanta-hawks/cap/

In my post, go to contingency 1:  Add buckets 1 and 2 and you have all the guarantees except for Gallo's 16.45 million unguaranteed but including his $5 million guaranteed.  $136,339,507.  Please explain the discrepancy.

45 minutes ago, marco102 said:

You don't throw in another player to get Ayton.  The Sun's will need to send Ayton and another contract to Atlanta if they want Capela. 

The Hawks will also need to move Gallo, Bogi, or Huerter to anoterh team to make room for Ayton. They won't be taking back salary much salary in that trade. 

Ayton counts max for Hawks, but like $18 million for the Suns in a sign and trade. 

 

You can't bundle a player signed and traded with another player. It would have to be 2 separate deals.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-two-time-euroleague-finals-120024847.html

Interesting player with rights owned by OKC.

25 minutes ago, thecampster said:

As a matter of math.

Okay, I think I can explain this better using a simple math table.

Assuming for a second the players not involved in any hypothetical scenario are: Trae, JJ.  All of Collins, Gallo, Capela, BB, Huerter, Hunter, OO are technically available in the trade bucket (Cap numbers only).  3rd group are cap holds,  That gives you 3 very specific financial buckets.

Bucket 1: $39,392,640 in salary.

Bucket 2: $113,396,867 contingent salary.

Bucket 3: $59,740,522.  Technically flexible since you can waive/resign any of these players at any time.

Contingencies. If you waive Gallo before June 29.

Bucket 1: $44,392,640

Bucket 2: $91,946,867

Okay, so you're building the Hawks. Your salary is bucket 1+bucket 2 + bucket 3 based on who you waive/gets resigned elsewhere/gets resigned here.  But for the purpose of the offseason and shenanigans you can kind of ignore bucket 3. Its flexible (ish).

Starting salary is either $152,789,507, 136,339,507.

If the scenario is Levine/Gobert, You sign your own free agents first, waive your rights on the rest, SnT for Levine 2nd and the LT is no obstacle. Then you complete the Gobert deal.  If the scenario is Ayton/Levine, same basic scenario but you can resign less of your own free agents and will incur some small empty roster holds. If the scenario includes Randle and either of the above scenarios, it gets very tricky.  The LT is $149,000,000.  Meaning you pretty much have to renounce all of your free agents and send out your 1st round pick in trade in either of the 1st 2 deals because Gallo's salary is still on the roster and you're starting at $152 mil. This is still possible but not a probable outcome.  Consider any deal involving Randle as an "OR" scenario and not an "AND".  But if it was 2 + Randle it would be complete the SnT's first, then Gobert deal (more salary back) or Ayton deal if less money is coming back goes first and Levine SnT second...then Randle.  It will all work, but it would require grave sacrifice on the lower end of the tree.  The major trick available here is to take back 2nd round picks in any hypothetical draft night trades as they have the cheapest cap holds.

Disclaimer:  Again, I am not in favor of, advocating for or saying this is what's happening. I just wanted some simple math to explain when others say it isn't possible, to show possible is possible, it just takes sacrifice and really bad future planning.

2 hours ago, sturt said:

*sigh*

That wouldn't be cool.

If you bring in Randle as Gallo's replacement that's cool.

In case anyone doesn't know already, I'm a .621 guy.... this roster needs to be tampered with as little as possible.

Let me get clear on this... b/c I'm now disturbed...

 

@thecampster you are saying you have intel from your source that "it would be to replace JC"... or you are saying that as a matter of your own conjecture... ???

As a matter of math.