thecampster

15 minutes ago, JTB said:

Just so you all know @Sothron @NBASupes @thecampster I never spread your inside info on other platforms. I wouldn’t do that to you guys! 

My only concern is people reposting it for some personal glory can bring unwanted attention. Sources are not always in the org but are often 3rd party org employees with connections to the org. The repost to Twitter is irresponsible and selfish.

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

@Sothron, I am going to start developing the post today but yes, trade cost is a very big deal to Atlanta. We have been offered a number of stars in the last month as have other teams. 

We're going there? 

8 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Aren’t you on of the authors he collaborated with? 
 

Soth says count me in as those curious to see whose curious to read my stuff… 

I kid of course.

In our conversations, Supes has been saying for weeks he hasn't heard anything. In our latest round, he failed to weigh in at all. My guess is his guy/s wasn't/weren't allowed to tell him anything.  We're in open discussion season so he's probably rolling with it right away as rumors are about to fly hot and heavy. There is no requirement we talk to each other but we use the chat as a way to verify things we've heard to see if anyone else was fed the same thing.  We don't have to talk to each other. Its a service we've provided to each other as a way of shoring up info.  This would be why you'll hear me say things like "my guy is saying" or "we've talked about and verified this"....either its a me only thing or its an at least 2 of us have heard it thing.

Last year at the deadline, I was fed that Shariffe was being discussed as a throw in.  Neither of the other 2 had heard that. Even though I'd heard it from 2 sources, I chose not to push that narrative because I couldn't verify it with a larger audience. I'm very choosy with what I say.  Supes tends to accept he paints with a larger brush and dumps the rumors out there.  He'll have a larger fail rate because of it but he'll also hit on things I'd exclude because his process is different.

In most cases, all of these things we've been fed were probably discussed at some level, but some are more likely than others.  The best example is last year when we broke very early (first with mods) that Simmons to Atlanta was a big thing....later we said that Atlanta was upset and discussing actions with the league for tampering. All 3 of us heard it and sure enough 4-7 days after we broke it with mods or the board, every story broke in the news.  There's a reason we hammered that storyline. It was 100% true, no debate. In our early discussions, it was really obvious some people internal to the organization were trying to get it leaked and talking to whomever would listen (probably in an attempt to pressure the Nets to pull out early ).

If I were to catalog it, Supes has had larger league info earlier than we have but with a higher questionable rate. Expected with how he's presenting. I've had the higher hit rate with Hawks and usually earlier.  Sothron has some very obvious connections because in our discussions, I tend to say what I've heard and he tends to give greater detail.  If our group had a narrative its Supes NBA at large, Camp Hawks, Sothron validator of info. Given my recent loss of sources, I'm guessing Sothron will break Hawks stuff first and I'll sit in the corner, nod and look pretty.

Just now, macdaddy said:

I just want to say, with all do respect, and remember i'm saying with all due respect, I think you are all idiots. 

Crap, he said all do respect....now I can't get offended!!! 

33 minutes ago, Sothron said:

This was needlessly insulting. He actually gave you a rough approximation of the actual charts real front office people use. You have heard of analytics and research in sports I hope? You can believe or disbelieve any of the insider rumors but what he was talking about is real actual front office information. It isn't as common for fans to know like the NFL draft pick values and trade chart as a result but it is there for the NBA.

27 minutes ago, kg01 said:

I don't know what people want nowadays.

2 minutes ago, marco102 said:

To be right.  So instead of acknowledging the post, they buckle down and get offensive. 

I'm not salty though. I get it. I don't get on here to argue or fight. Those days are behind me.  If I'm posting, its usually just trying to elevate the conversation. I've seen the squawk move that way in recent years. I lot more nuanced discussion (and good KG/Spud jokes as well).

45 minutes ago, Mikey said:

case in point just look at what James Harden went for and he is showing signs of a decline. Harden obviously better than gobert but at least gobert as not shown any health issues. But yeah certainly your chart is right!!!

Yes, lets look at what Harden, a top 10 offensive player in the league netted.

First, lets remember he was packaged with Millsap.

2 first round picks (from a team picking in the 20's), a player who refused to play, a defense challenged bench playing shooter and a center on the downside of his career.  I'm not sure the point you're making. You had 2 malcontents traded for each other with some value role playing bench players in Drummond and Curry and 2 lower value picks.

Your point exactly?   

You couldn't trade Gobert straight up for Harden but all of a sudden you expect more in trade compensation.  Player value, Hunter + 16 > Curry/Drummond right now, forget Capela.

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

[Removed unnecessary personal shot]

 

You typed a lot of explaining how contracts work but failed to acknowledge any bit of the precedent set of trading for star players. You also left out many factors like who are you dealing with (in this case Danny Ainge and group). Yes Gobert value may be lowered because of his contract but it will not be low to the point you can just salary match for a trade. That does not give Utah any sense of direction (it does not help them in title contention and it also does not help them rebuild). And even you just said they will need to add pick 16 . Stars packages are not salary matches until they have absolutely fallen off a cliff.

You aren't a tiger. Youre just another fish in the sea. Now go on and tell us about some rumors that literally any fan that can read between the lines can make up. I bet like all of them they wont ever come to fruition. Enjoy your day and enjoy your chart

So the great things about communities like this is some of the posters on this board have known each other for 20 years.  A bit of history, some of the people on the Squawk posted on group boards with each other before RealGM or the squawk ever started.  Way, way, way long ago, this board was started and maintained by a couple of those people. There have been a few iterations of the Squawk going back a very, very long time. A number of us are holdovers from back then.  I'm not even sure how to get into the old archives but the things you hear from some posters on this board are culminated, groomed thoughts of years of interacting with each other.  Long ago we grew past arguing with others in most cases.

This isn't to say you or anyone else isn't welcome here or that your opinions aren't valuable but many of the things said here go against years of history in most cases.  We were all here debating such great things as "Will Chris Crawford ever live up to his potential?", "Should we really be trading away Nique while we're battling for the #1 seed?", "Will Steve Smith be better here than Miami?", "When will @Diesel learn to just hug it out with Marvin?" 

We were on the board and some of us joined up at the old Omni to see Josh Smith get drafted. There's a lot of wisdom here and none of us claim to be the keeper of all knowledge. 

I won't speak to the other guys who've claimed insider knowledge, but I can only say that there are plenty of examples of stories being broken on here that end up in the media days later.  I leave you with one of my favorite quotes - "For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible" - Stuart Chase.

Of course you can go with my other favorite quote: "When the facts are on your side, pound the facts. When the law is on your side, pound the law. When neither is on you side, pound the table."   In our early days, there was a lot of table pounding here. Not so much anymore.

4 hours ago, thecampster said:

I just can't with Hollinger.  For "salary match" yes you'd need those players.  Unless of course the deal is set in principal today but consummated after the dead period in July.  Right now Clint + Bogi + pick works for salary matching.  After July 1 so does Clint and Huerter.  There is no universe where they are including picks on top of Jalen Johnson.  Half the teams in the league came sniffing around on Johnson during summer league last year asking for him to be included in deals.....Just such lazy writing.

Let me explain the Jalen Johnson thing using my above chart.  Jalen Johnson is right now probably a C to B level contributor if given minutes. Any team acquiring him would be doing so in order to play him.  Lets call him a C ability.  Being a lower 1st round pick, he has an E level salary.  C ability with E salary = Great value.  If salary were no issue, you could easily trade him straight up right now for a C ability player neutral value or a B ability player poor value.  Salary matching screws this up but if using it to drop salary on an LT team, these types of deals get done all the time.  The idea of throwing Johnson in is value = to throwing John Collins in. From a value perspective, teams see opportunity with the only risk is if the player doesn't live up to the value of the other player.  You could take 20 rookie salaries in the league right now drafted outside the lottery which are mostly untouchable.  JJ is one of them. If you (generic you) are casually reading this and don't understand it, I really can't invest the time to explain NBA futures trading on an individual basis.

Consider this a good place to start.  Reorg by Prod/GP.  Will show you how teams see value (last column).

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/valuation/2021/center/gmpct-25/active/

36 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Salary matching alone will not get you the best interior defender in the league lol. You will absolutely have to attached picks or players. Thats the cost of getting top 35 players in the league lol (even if his contract is enormous). JJ wont be included but they would definitely have to give a pick or 2

I kind of have a policy not to engage people on this board on cap/trade conversations but I am highly confident in what I'm saying based on a number of factors and since you decided to flick the tiger in the gonads, 

I'll lay it out.

When consummating trades, NBA teams look at a number of factors. Most people when trying to match salary attempt to match salary 1 for 1 but this is not the case.  Salaries can be matched .8 to 1 or 1 to 1.25 (+100k) in most cases.  NBA teams don't see value like you and I see value.  They slot players in a S/A/B/C/D/E format (or similar data points).  In a theoretical sense, 2 E's = a D and so on but you don't trade 8 D's to get an A even if the math works out.  On top of that, Most contending teams set their team's ideal team salary as (2 S (max), 1 A, 1 B and a combination of C's and D's to round it out.).  Where trades can be pushed more or less in your favor is if the player ability is greater than his Contract.  They use a matrix of value similar to what I'm showing below.

Using the above chart, Gobert is an A ability player but an S level salary.  Technically, he is a poor value. Rarely is an A or S level player a good value, typically only if they're on their rookie contract or were acquired after a buy out.  NBA teams understand this and accept it.

Clint is a B level player on a B level contract.  He is Neutral value (see the chart).  So although Gobert technically has more ability he charts lower in value, he can also keep you from getting another good, great or superior player.  Hunter is a C/B level player on a D/C level contract.  If he were locked in, Hunter would be a good value, but he's not locked in and will command more later so he's not as good a value as he seems.  Technically, a deal for Clint and Hunter is a neutral and good level contract + a good value draft pick for a poor level value player (even though is superior in ability).  In this scenario of value, Utah gets back neutral + good +good for poor value. 

Lets explore a few others.  This past season, Huerter was a good value as he was a C level player but on a D/E level contract. Although he had flaws, he was such a small bit of the salary cap his value was good.  However, his salary goes up considerably next year to the B level. His C level performance will drop this from a Great to Excellent value down to a poor value. Huerter will have to step it up.

By contrast, Bogi was a B level player when healthy but had times of lower performance. If Huerter was a mid C, Bogi was a high C to low B.  But a salary of B to A level pushes him to a neutral to poor value.  My contrast of Bogi and Huerter will probably take a turn next year, as since Huerter got paid, more is going to be asked of him to live up to that contract. The "value" comparison will change.

Lets contrast Trae here.

I see Trae as A level ability (S Offense, D defense (at best)).  Last year when only making $8 million, he was on a D/C level salary.  This is unicorn level output. Only a few people a year have this kind of disparity in their ability vs salary and most are on rookie contracts. This puts him in good to great value and is why we could afford to pay someone. Instead of 2 S level ability players we had a bunch of B/A's. Its also why stepping up in the playoffs is a roulette table. B level players are not on all the time.

Trading is not as simple as "he's great, you have to give up more to get him" and I've struggled to explain this to people on the regular. There are numerous factors, the 2 most important of which to teams are chemistry and the salary cap. As currently constructed, the Jazz are 4 players short for next season and are already slighting in to the LT.  Utah doesn't want to take back a max contract for Gobert but instead wants a few contracts to spread out their salary to minimize or eliminate their LT impact. If Utah believes they can package 16 and their pick to move up and they believe that player and the wing Atlanta includes will be upgrades to what they have, they'll accept the downgrade from Gobert to Clint.  

The problem that Utah is going to face is the impact drop off of Gobert to any shlub center they can sign is so great, they have to get back a center with a reasonable drop off in return. That is a very limited set of centers in the league. It has to be a top 15 center or the gap would be too large to make up as currently constructed and top 15 centers are rarely available to trade. Clint is one of the few available players who would meet that criteria and be better than neutral value.

No criticizing the lecture, you flicked the tiger. If you were here longer, you'd know it was a bad idea.

11 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Stuff like this is why John Hollinger is no longer a GM. 

The Hawks have a ready salary match in a Gobert deal with a Clint Capela-Hunter combo, so the real questions are how much the Hawks need to add on top in terms of assets and draft picks and whether that price is ultimately worth it. The bare minimum would be adding in Jalen Johnson (needed to complete a salary match) and the 16th pick in this year’s draft; the Jazz likely would push for at least one future Atlanta first on top of that, plus the future first Charlotte owes the Hawks from the Cam Reddish trade. If the Jazz really push it, they might ask for a swap of Kevin Huerter for the unwanted contracts of Rudy Gay and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, too.

So … how much is too much? Is it worth going all-in on a soon-to-be 30-year-old center who will make $47 million in 2025-26? Where is the line at which the Hawks should pass? Keep in mind the Hawks won’t be the only team after Gobert, if he is truly available; surely Charlotte, for instance, would have eyes for him.

 

Soooo.....let's see:

Capela, Hunter, JJ, Huerter, 2022 #16, 2023 Charlotte 1st and a future Atlanta 1st for Gobert, Rudy Gay and NAW. 

I just can't with Hollinger.  For "salary match" yes you'd need those players.  Unless of course the deal is set in principal today but consummated after the dead period in July.  Right now Clint + Bogi + pick works for salary matching.  After July 1 so does Clint and Huerter.  There is no universe where they are including picks on top of Jalen Johnson.  Half the teams in the league came sniffing around on Johnson during summer league last year asking for him to be included in deals.....Just such lazy writing.

10 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

See I don’t do well in confined spaces. I was thinking a 4 on 4 full court run where I can spread my wings like a Hawk. 
 

I need spacing to shoot ok!!!! There I said it.

ps I can’t create my own shot.

pps Can’t go left.

Maybe we should just continue the squawk discussions instead.. 

 

Real footage, Hawksquawk annual 5v5 tourney.

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

Trae / Delon  - I'm good here

Bogi / Kev / Delon - Need new a starting 2

Hunter / Kev - we need a backup vet SF who is physical

JC / Gallo / JJ - assume Gallo is gone.  I hope JJ pans out but we may need a vet back up here

Capela / OO - I'm good here

 

New starting 2.   Vet wing for the bench and a vet big.   

Given 25 minutes a game, JJ is going to give you 15/6 rolling out of bed.  What concerns me is how young he looks, especially on D.  But I don't think we've seen an NBA frame this good in a Hawk's jersey in a long time. Its the best frame on the team, he just needs to grow into it.

15 minutes ago, Wretch said:

Thanks for this Camp.  I had my suspicious about the team chemistry.  Not necessarily negative chemistry, it just...not the right chemistry.  Aside from win/loss indicators...the parts and personalities didn't seem fully cohesive.  Not like we were in the playoffs last season.  It was a whole other vibe.

That last part about too many betas got my antennas up.  I've been harping on toughness as a must-get and it goes hand-in-hand.  This team needs a cohesive dynamic duo surrounded by tough-minded vets and some capable goons.  The framework for a great team is here.  We're missing one big piece and a lot of supporting pieces that fit better than what we have.

I keep running back to Portis and thinking about that neck grab by Butler game 1 vs Trae.  If Bobby Portis is on the floor for the Hawks and Jimmy Butler grabbed Trae by the neck, Butler is getting blindsided by 3 wheel barrels full of crazy. If Steven Adams is at center, he might have been ejected 4 times in this series fighting back.  I can go back through every finals winner the last 20 years and there's a bit of goon and crazy on every squad and there's a reason for that.  I'm not talking Dellavedova or Grayson Allen dirty play, but a bit of Ivan Johnson level instability making everyone wonder if taking that cheap shot is a good idea.